By: @Ryan_Humphries

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Seeing a high volume of fantasy-relevant players banged up around this point in the season is nothing new. That’s just football. Injuries to star players and vital role players occur every year and many often ask “is this the worst year for NFL injuries ever?” The answer is almost always “no” but recency bias can cause folks to believe otherwise. The injuries do sting a bit more when we also have to contend with bye weeks. And this particular week features a swarm of top offenses that will be getting the week off. The six teams on bye this week include Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers, and Jaguars. No more than four teams will be on bye in any remaining week this season, which is why this week is particularly brutal. You can easily argue that the Jaguars and even the Steelers aren’t major losses. But not having players available from the Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, and Vikings? That’s a pretty hefty blow.

Nonetheless, we’ll still have a 10-game main slate to break into this Sunday so let’s buckle down and crush it!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Games to Target 🎯

Obvious Game Stack

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) @ Tennessee Titans | 57.5 O/U

KC: 31.0 implied points | TEN: 26.5 implied points

Score Prediction: KC - 34, TEN - 28

Game Notes: It doesn’t take much brainpower to pinpoint this game as one we’ll want some stake in this week. There are only two games on the slate with a 50+ point total -- this one and DET @ LAR (-15.5) 50.5 O/U being the other one. The Lions/Rams game is pretty likely to turn into a blowout so it’s not hard to see why this Chiefs/Titans tilt will be, far and away, the preferred match-up to invest more heavily in. While neither of these offenses operates at an overly fast pace, the defenses have been two of the worst in the NFL. Kansas City ranks 31st in overall DVOA while Tennessee ranks 28th. There will be a few key injuries to monitor here (Tyreek, Kelce, AJ Brown, Julio) but, regardless of who suits up, it’s pretty clear that we’ll want to get some DFS exposure to the healthy bodies on both sides of this match-up. Also, keep AJ Brown away from Chipotle.

Contrarian Game Stack

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Miami Dolphins | 47.5 O/U

ATL: 25.0 implied points | MIA: 22.5 implied points

Score Prediction: ATL - 30, MIA - 24

Game Notes: This isn’t an ultra sneaky game to target, but far less obvious than the one mentioned above. The Falcons enter off of a bye week and were beginning to show some decent firepower and efficiency on offense in weeks he prior (though, against weak competition… but Miami isn’t a defensive powerhouse whatsoever either). The 1-5 Dolphins had the displeasure of allowing the Jaguars to break their 20-game losing streak in London last week. However, with Tua back under center, they did produce 329 yards through the air and attempted 47 passes. A similar game script could develop if they find themselves playing from behind once again. Both of these offenses rank inside the top half of the league in both situation neutral pace (ATL - 11th, MIA - 13th) and overall pace (ATL - 15th, MIA - 5th). The defenses are also among the bottom seven in the league in terms of DVOA (ATL - 30th, MIA - 26th). We can safely expect some decent points to be scored here with several key players producing strong fantasy performances.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tom Brady, TB | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | vs. CHI

Sure, the match-up may not make Brady jump off the page here (CHI: 9th fewest FPPG allowed to QBs, ranks 7th in pass DVOA) and the Bucs being -12.5 point favorites implies a potential blowout is incoming. But… it’s Brady. In three home games, Brady has averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game along with 34.5 DKFP/gm and 32.2 FDFP/gm. Tampa Bay has passed on 67.6% of offensive plays this year, 2nd highest in the league. Given the receivers, he has at his disposal and the likelihood that people will look for QBs in more obvious match-ups, Brady is a prime QB candidate to double-stack within tournaments this week.

Matthew Stafford, LAR | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.1k | vs. DET

Who doesn’t love a good narrative of a high-profile player going up against his former team for the first time? The Rams lead the slate with a 33.0 implied point total, Stafford is averaging 314.7 YPG with a 9:1 TD:INT ratio at home, and the Lions are allowing a league high 113.8 passer rating. Yes, a blowout could neutralize the Rams need to stay aggressive through the air. However, if they jump up on the Lions by a considerable margin, it likely means Stafford had a great fantasy performance regardless.

Matt Ryan, ATL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.3k | @ MIA

If we scrap the complete dud that the Falcons posted in week one against the Eagles, Matt Ryan has averaged 292 YPG, 2.5 TD/gm, and a 71% completion rate over his last four games -- good for 23.1 DKFP/gm, 21.4 FDFP/gm. It would seem that rookie TE Kyle Pitts is really starting to get in sync with Matt Ryan and the speed of the NFL and now Atlanta will also get Calvin Ridley (personal) back in the huddle. The Dolphins have been atrocious against the pass and have surrendered 346.3 YPG through the air over their last four games. If looking to save some salary at the position, Ryan appears to be a strong value QB to target in week seven.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Derrick Henry, TEN | DK: $9.2k, FD: $11k | vs. KC

For $11,000 on FanDuel, I can understand why you’d at least be a bit hesitant to pull the trigger on fantasy’s top RB this week. But DraftKings continues to underprice Henry at $9,200. I understand the idea to at least lower exposure towards him in your GPP lineups, but fading him outright just doesn’t seem plausible at this point, especially in what appears to be the highest-scoring environment of the week. Henry is as obvious as obvious gets, so I don’t need to go into too much depth here. In cash games, he may be a virtual lock (on DK, at least).

Aaron Jones, GB | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.5k | vs. WAS

It’s a wide price gap between Henry and Jones, the second most expensive (healthy) running back on the board on this slate. Most will look to find the salary to squeeze Henry in, so consider Jones to be a pay-up leverage play. Jones has handled 73.3% of his team’s red zone rushes, which is second on the slate only to, you guessed it, Derrick Henry (86.7% RZ rush%). Jones’ 28 total red zone touches are also the second-most in the league behind only Jonathan Taylor. The Packers are favored here at home by more than a touchdown (a big plus for RBs) and Washington has permitted 31.4 DKFP/28.9 FDFP to opposing RBs over their last four games.

Darrell Henderson Jr., LAR | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k | vs. DET

I realize I’m not really going out on a limb here highlighting the top three priced (healthy) RB options on the slate, but all three just make too much sense in their own regard. In Henderson’s case, the only thing that should prevent him from having another excellent floor performance in this game would be an injury. Otherwise, he has handled an elite level of his team’s RB touches (74.8%) and will go up against a poor Detroit run defense which has been bowled over by similar workhorse RBs this season (see image below).

Darell Williams, KC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.7k | @ TEN

Okay, let’s get away from the high-end tier and hit on a guy who was a popular value option a week ago. Williams’ 72% snap% tied the injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire single game high in snap% from this season. The new regiment of a starter’s snap share for Williams resulted in 21 carries and four targets which he turned into 89 total yards and a pair of TDs. Tennessee may only allow the 11th fewest FPPG to RBs but they’ve also faced the 11th fewest RB carries (19.0 att/gm). They’re still giving up a fairly high 4.6 YPC average to opposing RBs. Perhaps if the Titans keep this game close for all four quarters, or pull ahead outright, Williams’ heavy workload will be diminished. But, for now, I believe he’s a perfectly fine mid-range target.

JD McKissic, WAS | DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k | @ GB

This is essentially a GPP only play and one that is more suitable for DraftKings, given the full PPR scoring system. While it looks like Antonio Gibson (shin) has a decent chance to suit up this week, the injury he is dealing with isn’t something that is going to go away for the remainder of the season (see video from tweet linked below where @ProFootballDoc breaks down the Gibson injury). Washington is also short-handed on healthy pass-catchers so McKissic seeing an uptick in snaps/targets makes sense based on team health as well. Additionally, Washington heads into Lambeau Field as 8-point road underdogs, and currently, 62% of public bettors are expecting the Packers to cover that spread (via Covers.com). In a play-from-behind game script last week against the Chiefs, McKissic led all Football Team RBs with a 61% snap%. That resulted in eight receptions for 65 yards on 10 targets while also adding eight carries for 45 yards. As a reminder, McKissic was the overall RB15 in PPR scoring last year and has posted at least 16.9 PPR points in 3-of-6 games this season. Even when you ignore the health concerns of Antonio Gibson and several Washington receivers, this may be a week where McKissic plays a key role due to game script alone.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyreek Hill, KC | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.5k | @ TEN

On a slate where bye weeks and injuries have impacted the amount of appealing DFS options at several positions, the wide receiver position doesn’t feel all too affected given all the excellent options available. Davante, Tyreek, Kupp, DHop, DJ Moore, McLaurin -- all deserve some legitimate consideration. But I’ll choose to highlight the most electric player at the position. Hill has been hanging onto an injury designation due to a quad injury and hasn’t practiced as of Thursday. However, he followed a similar pattern last week yet was still able to suit up in week six. Despite only playing 57% of snaps last week, he still commanded 12 targets, catching nine for 76 yards and a TD. It’s logical that the Chiefs are being cautious with their star playmaker but it is clear that when he is on the field, he is going to get looks and he doesn’t necessarily need a 90+% snap rate to produce a huge game. Last week was the third straight game in which Hill saw at least 12 targets -- the fourth time in six games this season. He’s no longer being utilized as a primary deep threat and his lower 10.5-yard aDOT this season has led to a very strong 73% catch%. He’s still seeing the routine deep ball but, overall, his targets are simply more high percentage this year. And, hey, guess what? He gets to face a Titans secondary which has surrendered the most FPPG to opposing WRs! *IF* Tyreek were to be forced to sit here, Mecole Hardman ($4.3k/$5.4k) would go from an intriguing standalone value play to a lock and load upside target.

Calvin Ridley, ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | @ MIA

Coming off of a bye after missing week five due to personal reasons, Ridley is back in the fold this week against Miami. Might this finally be the monster week we’ve been waiting to see out of Ridley in the post-Julio era? Let’s hope! This $6,600 salary is a season-low over on DraftKings and the $7,300 price on FanDuel isn’t too restrictive either. Ridley obviously hasn’t been bad this season but he’s clearly not playing up to expectations placed on him heading into the year. In four games, he’s posted a high of 80 yards and has just one receiving TD. Now that Matt Ryan has been playing better and Kyle Pitts is there to take some attention off of Ridley, I’d be on the lookout for a potential season-best performance. Miami has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to perimeter WRs this season, which is where Ridley has run 80% of his routes. He’s also averaging 10.5 targets/gm on the year, so it isn’t as if Matt Ryan is ignoring him -- the 6.1 yards per target just happens to be abnormally low and is due for some positive regression. I’d also expect his 10.8-yard aDOT to begin to go on the rise.

Antonio Brown, TB | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CHI

As mentioned above, I really like Tom Brady for GPPs this week and Antonio Brown would be my top Bucs receiver to consider when constructing Brady single or double stacks (AB also makes for a strong standalone play, regardless of whether you roster Brady at QB). In the three games since Gronk went down, Brown has scored three TDs and has caught at least seven passes in every game while seeing an average of 10.7 targets in that span. With Gronk still looking unlikely to play in week seven, Brown should continue to thrive on intermediate routes and he has been boasting some of his vintage big play catch-and-run ability. His availability will need to be monitored as he deals with an ankle injury and has not practiced as of Thursday. If he sits, Mike Evans ($6.5k/$7.1k) and Chris Godwin ($5.9k/$6.7k) would be in line for a more trustworthy target share.

Editor Note: AB is OUT, look for Mike Evans and Godwin to get increased targets.

Darnell Mooney, CHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.9k | @ TB

In the last three weeks, Justin Fields has attempted only 64 passes but 20 of those have been in the direction of Darnell Mooney -- good for a 31.3% TGT%. It’s pretty well known that the Bucs are a pass funnel defense so it would not be a reach to assume that Fields will reach a new career-high in pass attempts this week (the previous high was 27 attempts), especially given the likely chance the Bears will be playing from behind. Now, you’re not necessarily getting a safe investment here due to the growing pains that every rookie QB goes through. But the Fields + Mooney connection has some legs to it and, from a leverage perspective, I believe Mooney sets up as a sharp spend-down option in tournaments this week.

Van Jefferson Jr., LAR | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.5k | vs. DET

Perhaps Jefferson is only useful as a piece to Matthew Stafford double stacks on DraftKings, but I felt compelled to highlight him for a few specific reasons. While Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are the key cogs in this Rams passing attack, with TE Tyler Higbee and RB Darrell Henderson Jr. receiving their fair share of looks as well, Jefferson has still seen plenty of time on the field and has amassed a 71% snap%. He has acquired a fairly solid 13.1-yard aDOT and has averaged 5.0 targets/gm over the Rams last four. While the target volume is low, the looks he does get could mean a bit more against a Lions defense that allows a league-high 9.2 yards per pass attempt. Jefferson’s best performances have also come in his three home games this season where he has averaged 15.1 DKFP. I know it’s a bit of a cherry-picking case I’m about to make, but if a WR was twice the price of Jefferson on DK (so, $7,000) but also saw double Jefferson’s targets over the last four weeks (so 10.0 tgt/gm), they’d probably fall within DFS consideration for many people. So… hey, why not Van? With all that said, consider him a GPP only flier.

Rashod Bateman, BAL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.3k | vs. CIN

After riding the IR all season due to a groin injury, Bateman finally made his NFL debut in week six and played 65% of snaps. In a game where the Ravens coasted to a surprise 34-6 win over the Chargers, the Ravens attempted only 27 passes. Bateman ran 22 routes and was targeted six times resulting in an impressive 27.2% target rate on routes ran. Bateman’s final stat line of four receptions for 29 yards isn’t going to excite most people, but the underlying level of involvement should. Bateman is a legitimate rookie talent out of Minnesota who Baltimore felt confident enough in to spend their 1st round pick (27th overall) on him in this year’s draft. With Sammy Watkins (thigh) looking unlikely to play once again, expect Bateman’s role to continue to grow on Sunday as Baltimore looks to get him acclimated into their every-week offensive game plan.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Mike Gesicki, MIA | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6k | vs. ATL

The Dolphins have been plagued by injuries to their WR corps so Gesicki has consistently been playing the role of a primary receiver. Over the last four games, Gesicki is averaging 8.5 targets/gm which is tied with Mark Andrews for second among TEs on this slate and, predictably, trails only Travis Kelce (9.5 tgt/gm L4Wks). Miami has passed on 68.8% of its offensive plays this season, the highest mark in the NFL. In what could be a bit of a shootout in a game featuring two bad defenses, Gesicki looks like a worthy target if you’re not spending up at the position.

Dallas Goedert, PHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.9k | @ LV

With Zach Ertz being dealt to Arizona this past week, that leaves his past production of 31 targets, 18 receptions, 189 yards, and two TDs through six games left over to go elsewhere moving forward. Through six games, that Ertz’s production averages out to 5.2 targets, 3 receptions, 31.5 yards, and 0.7 TDs per game. Goedert clearly won’t be the beneficiary of 100% of that vacated volume, but he’s now the clear-cut TE option and his routes, targets, yardage, and red zone involvement should only increase. Realistically, he could post top 5 TE numbers moving forward. We do have to monitor his availability after he missed week six while being on the COVID/reserve list. He was taken off that list today (Thursday) but was immediately hit with the “questionable” tag due to an illness. If he’s good to go on Sunday, he’s in a great spot against a Raiders defense which has allowed the 7th most FPPG to TEs.

Zach Ertz, ARI | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.3k | vs. HOU

Speaking of Goedert, we go to his former teammate with Ertz making his Cardinals debut. You couldn’t ask for a better match-up if you’re a player looking to get acclimated to new surroundings. Vegas views this as a glorified scrimmage as Arizona takes the field as -17.5 point home favorites. It will take some time for Ertz to fully learn the Kliff Kingsbury playbook but I would expect him to at the very least step in and immediately fill a similar role that Maxx Williams held prior to sustaining a season-ending injury. The Texans allow the 4th most FPPG to TEs and it would make sense for Arizona to pepper him with around 6-8 targets, at minimum, in a game in which they should be able to coast to a win.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Arizona Cardinals | DK: $3.1k, FD: $5k | vs. HOU

Analysis: It’s the Texans. The $3,100 salary is simply too cheap on DK. Spending all the way up at $5k for them on FanDuel doesn’t seem optimal, so for a non-punt there, I’d consider the Packers (FD: $4,100) at home against Washington.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Tennessee Titans | DK: $2.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. KC

Clearly, this is full-on punting but, at the very least, Tennessee is at home, they have the best back in the league who can help control the clock, and Mahomes has been very careless with the ball this season (8 INTs, 1 FUM LOST). The Chiefs will put up their fair share of points, no doubt, but opposing D/STs have averaged 6.3 FPPG against them this year and 8.5 FPPG over the last four weeks. For basically min-salary, I’d be thrilled with 6-8 FP.

Touchdown Call 🏈

Calvin Ridley, ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | @ MIA

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