By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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We barrel on towards the midway point of the NFL regular season! As of now, week eight is devoid of any COVID-related scheduling headaches, so let’s hope that remains to be the case between now and Sunday. Though, I’d be all for the NFL ‘flexing’ a better Sunday Night Football match-up like we saw last week when the Seahawks/Cardinals game flipped time slots with the Bucs/Raiders. Man, that SEA/ARI game was a fun and wild one to watch. I have a feeling the SNF showdown between the Eagles and Cowboys won’t be such a thriller. But that is just wishful thinking.

An interesting facet to this week’s set of games is the impact weather may have on certain match-ups. Currently, I’m counting six of the eleven games on the main slate which show sustained winds forecasted at 15+ mph, with four of those games potentially seeing 25+ mph winds throughout the day. This may not be anything we need to necessarily overreact to from a DFS perspective, but it will still be something to keep in mind as we near the Sunday kickoffs. Be sure to keep an eye on the weather info, which you can find for each game over on the LineStar Daily Dashboard page. Also, be on the lookout for some possible roster shakeups over the next few days as we draw closer to Tuesday’s November 3rd NFL trade deadline!

Main slate match-ups with implied game totals, spreads, and moneylines:

Games to Target

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-3) | 54 O/U

SF: 25.5 implied points | SEA: 28.5 implied points

SF: 31st in offensive tempo | SEA: 22nd in offensive tempo

If you’re a little hesitant about some of these games with strong forecasted winds, you can find some some solace in this West Coast match-up which will be played in calm conditions and carries the highest total on the slate alongside a close spread. Neither of these teams may move the ball at a very high tempo but both offenses rank inside the top 10 in offensive efficiency (Seattle 2nd, San Francisco 8th). It is no secret either that the Seahawks defense has given up a truckload of yards and points this season, as they rank 28th in total DVOA, 30th in pass DVOA. The 49ers rank 8th overall in total DVOA but Russell Wilson and this offense can clearly move the ball against any defense they face. You’ll find plenty of viable DFS plays residing in this game in what should be another quality NFC West showdown.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Detroit Lions | 50 O/U

IND: 26.5 implied points | DET: 23.5 implied points

IND: 26th in offensive tempo | DET: 14th in offensive tempo

Perhaps this isn’t the juiciest of match-ups in terms of potential offensive fireworks, but it is our only game of the week that will be played inside of a dome. Regular readers know that I often highlight domed match-ups in this section since, on average historically, actual scoring tends to be about 10% higher in such match-ups. I don’t think you need to go too crazy loading up on this game because the Colts do boast the 3rd best defense in the NFL in terms of DVOA and they’ve also had two weeks to prepare for this match-up coming out of their week seven bye. Neither team moves the ball incredibly fast on offense either, but there is still a pretty viable pathway to this game turning into a bit of a back-and-forth shootout. The Colts did give up 27 points and nearly 400 yards of total offense to the Joe Burrow-led Bengals back in week six, so I wouldn’t rule out the Lions being able to replicate a similar performance at home. On the other side, there is nothing particularly scary about the Lions defense (18th in DVOA) and Rivers is coming off of a season high 371 yard performance which included a trio of TD passes.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Ryan Tannehill | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.5k | @ CIN | Cash & GPP

We can probably find enough value to spend up on QBs like Wilson or Rodgers this week but you can save quite a bit in salary while retaining strong upside by dropping down to Tannehill. He has scored at least 16.74 DKFP in every game this season with a pair of 30+ FP performances under his belt as well. The Bengals defense recently allowed Philip Rivers and Baker Mayfield to combine for 668 yards and 8 TDs over their last two games. On the year, Cincy ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA. You could argue that this is a better spot for more of a “Derrick Henry game” but, really, both guys could succeed this week. I just can’t envision Tannehill putting up a dud in this spot.

Cam Newton | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.4k | @ BUF | GPP Only

You won’t find many people touting Newton this week, and for pretty good reason. He was downright dreadful against the 49ers last week when he completed just 9-of-15 passes for 98 yards, zero TDs, and threw three picks while rushing for 19 yards and ultimately amassing a whopping 2.82 FP. He is proving to be about as rushing dependent as a QB could get, but we also know what sort of upside that can bring to the table for fantasy purposes. This game is in Buffalo and could be played in pretty miserable weather (cold, rainy, and 20-25 mph winds). That could mean as many designed runs for Newton as he can handle, barring non-atrocious play in the passing game. The Patriots hold just a 19.0 implied point total in a game that carries the lowest total of the week, but Newton could end up being like 5% owned in tournaments. He’s worth some sort of consideration (in GPPs only), especially at that DK price tag.

Jimmy Garoppolo | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.6k | @ SEA | Cash & GPP

This is obviously a complete flowchart play, as Seattle is giving up the 2nd most FPPG to QBs - 30.6 DKFP per game. The Seahawks defense is just in utter shambles right now and they’ve allowed an absurd 373.8 passing YPG on the year. Considering the 49ers backfield is once again extremely banged up, you have to imagine Garoppolo will be passing plenty in this game regardless of whether they get up on the scoreboard against Seattle or not. Barring a “worst case scenario” game like the one he had against Miami in week five (though, that was his first game back after the ankle injury), he should get you at minimum 15-17 FP (acceptable enough for cash games at these salaries) and he’ll have upside for 25+ FP. Garoppolo didn’t light it up last week against the Pats, and he threw a pair of INTs, but he wasn’t really required to do much against a New England team that never really ‘forced the issue’ and only scored six points. The Seahawks will not provide the same sort of gamescript. Even though it only amounted to 9.48 DKFP, Garoppolo did complete a season-best 80% of his passes (for 11.1 YPA) in that game last week.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Derrick Henry | DK: $8k, FD: $9.5k | @ CIN | Cash & GPP

Henry’s lack of involvement in the passing game will usually require him to rush for 100+ yards and a couple TDs in order to pay off these lofty salaries, but we clearly know he is capable of doing such a thing. The Bengals have actually held RBs relatively in check this year, giving up the 12th fewest FPPG to the position. However, they rank 21st in run defense DVOA and also surrender 4.9 YPC (6th highest). With Henry basically locked into 20-25 carries a game, we should probably expect the 100+ yards to come. After that, it’s just hoping the touchdowns come along with the yardage.

Dalvin Cook | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.2k | @ GB | GPP Preferred

The only thing holding me back from locking at Cook as a core cash play is the simple fact that he is coming off of the one game absence with a groin injury. A timely week seven bye has given Cook just about three weeks to heal up and all indications are that he’ll be back in action against the Packers on Sunday. The gamescript may not turn out to be ideal, as Minnesota is a touchdown underdog to their division rival, but the Packers have actually allowed the most FPPG to RBs this season. If Cook plays without restrictions, he should post good numbers here but I just can’t trust him in a cash lineup just yet.

Kareem Hunt | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k | vs. LV | Cash & GPP

In Nick Chubb’s extended absence, Hunt hasn’t exactly broken out for a big game as the Browns primary RB. Perhaps it’s a good thing, because his salaries are staying relatively in check. His games in weeks five and six came against the 1st (PIT) and 5th (IND) ranked run defenses, while a late TD bailed out his statline in week seven against Cincy. But now he’ll go up against a Raiders team that is permitting the 3rd most FPPG to RBs and ranks 29th in run defense DVOA. Hunt could really shine in the passing game, as RBs are averaging seven receptions and 63.3 receiving YPG against Las Vegas on the year. This is also one of the games which should experience 25+ mph winds, which could boost the overall run game as well as increasing the odds for more short dump-off passes.

Jamaal Williams | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP

Aaron Jones (calf) isn’t practicing as of Thursday, so he’s currently trending in the direction of sitting out a second consecutive week. Williams was uber chalk last week, and rightfully so. He ended up racking up 114 yards from scrimmage on 19 carries and four receptions while adding a TD and played on 89% of snaps. Despite the significant salary increases, he should be within consideration once again. The match-up with Minnesota isn’t as enticing as the Houston match-up was last week, but the Vikings are pretty much league average against RBs. Green Bay should be able to work themselves into the redzone on several occasions which would provide Williams with a decent opportunity at a TD or two. Of course, if Jones suits up you can pretty much disregard all of this.

Myles Gaskin | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.7k | vs. LAR | Cash (DK) & GPP

Gaskin’s 67% snap rate ranks 7th among all NFL RBs this season. He has proven to be a super solid value play throughout the year, especially on DK where his consistent 4+ targets/game really help elevate his floor and counterbalance his lack of TDs (only one this season). It’s a bit unknown how different this Miami offense will look with Tua Tagovailoa taking the reins at QB but Gaskin should maintain a steady workload and should eventually find some positive touchdown regression work in his favor.

Le’Veon Bell | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6k | vs. NYJ | GPP Preferred

Bell saw a respectable 33% snap count in his first game as a Chief and was able to average 6.5 YPC on six rush attempts. While he wasn’t targeted, he ran quite a few pass routes as well. The revenge narrative is in full force for Bell this Sunday, as he’ll get to face the miserable Jets franchise that released him just a couple weeks ago. The Chiefs are massive 19.5 point favorites in this game, which is a sort of spread you rarely see outside of lopsided college football match-ups. There probably won’t be much need to give the rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire a full four quarter workload, so Bell could find around a dozen or so touches land in his lap by default. I’m sure he’ll press the matter for solid playing time this week as well.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Davante Adams | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.1k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP

No one needs me to point out that Adams is a top WR play to target this week but he gets a mention by default. When he’s healthy, he dominates the Green Bay target share and outplays most any cornerback that tries to cover him. His 14-156-2 line against this same Minnesota team in week one should give you all the confidence you need to roll him out once again.

AJ Brown | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.5k | @ CIN | Cash & GPP

Brown is having some unsustainable TD production fall in his favor the last three weeks but he should be Tannehill’s first read on most drop backs. Until he stops producing, I’ll keep buying. As mentioned above with Tannehill, the Bengals secondary allowed Rivers and Mayfield to throw for a combined 668 yards against them in their last two games and Brown has simply been cooking opposing secondaries lately. I believe Corey Davis (DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.4k) makes for a smart GPP pivot as well.

Tyreek Hill | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.1k | vs. NYJ | GPP Preferred

You know it’s only a matter of time before Tyreek breaks a slate wide open. He is consistently finding the endzone this year with a touchdown in 6-of-7 games, it’s just the yardage and downfield targets haven’t really been there. He hasn’t cracked 100 yards receiving yet on the season and his aDOT is sitting at 11.6 yards -- which is good for most receivers, low for a speedster like Hill. Due to the likely blowout, there’s really no need to go here in cash but the Cheetah is a standout GPP option.

Keenan Allen | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.4k | @ DEN | Cash & GPP

In weeks 2, 3, 4, and 7 (aka the weeks he has played all four quarters with Justin Herbert at QB), Allen has seen 10, 19, 12, and 13 targets head in his direction. That equates to a monstrous 37.8% target share in that set of games as well as a 40% share of total air yards. It’s no secret who Herbert’s favorite target is. Though Denver may not be the best match-up on paper, they are giving up 38.7 DKFP to WRs this season and Allen should be locked into 10+ targets once again.

Brandon Aiyuk | DK: $5.8k, FD: $5.9k | @ SEA | Cash & GPP

Aiyuk is setting up to be a pretty popular DFS play this week and I’ll likely look to get my share of exposure as well. We know how good this match-up is for opposing passing attacks and the 49ers will be without Deebo Samuel, so Aiyuk takes on the WR1 role by default. With the injuries in the San Fran backfield, Aiyuk is also a candidate to see a little action in the run game as well and he already has a pair of rushing TDs on the season. Barring some immediate massive improvement to the Seahawks secondary, Aiyuk should have himself a nice day on Sunday afternoon.

AJ Green | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. TEN | GPP Preferred

It’s been a work in progress for rookie Joe Burrow connecting with his veteran wide receiver, but you can’t deny that the duo has been trying to get things going. Green has seen a lofty 24 targets in the last two weeks and actually ranks 9th in the NFL in total targets with 58. However, he only has 29 receptions and no TDs to show for it. Eventually the TDs and big games will come if he continues to see all of these looks and it’s hard to knock the 15 receptions and 178 total yards over the last two weeks. Green is probably in play for cash games on DK at that $4,500 price, but probably a GPP-only play for me on FanDuel.

Rashard Higgins | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.5k | vs. LV | GPP Preferred

Even prior to the OBJ injury, Higgins had been getting a little more involved in previous weeks. He played 55% of snaps in week five, followed by 60% in week six, and scored a TD in both games. Last week, he saw his snap count rise to 85%, which led all Browns WRs. He responded accordingly, catching 6-of-6 targets for 110 yards. The only thing making me hesitant on him for cash consideration is that potential for high winds during this game.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Darren Waller | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.8k | @ CLE | Cash & GPP

Waller leads all TEs in targets this season and is getting 9.3 tgt/gm through six games. He’s probably in line for 10 or more looks on some short/intermediate routes in this windy week eight match-up. The Browns haven’t really gotten torched by TEs this year but they also haven’t faced an elite guy at the position like Waller since week one when they went against the Ravens and Mark Andrews (who caught five passes for 58 yards and two touchdowns). If you’re feeling like paying up here but don’t want to reach for Kelce/Kittle/Andrews, then Waller is an easy secondary choice and could very realistically outscore all other TEs this Sunday.

Jonnu Smith | DK: $4.1k, FD: $6.1k | @ CIN | Cash & GPP

Way too cheap on DK. Yeah, he only caught one pass last week but that was against a stingy Pitt D that doesn’t give up much production to hardly anybody. Smith was also coming fresh off of a week six game against Houston where he was forced out in the third quarter due to an ankle injury. He’s in a great bounce back spot this week against a Bengals team that allows the 4th most FPPG to TEs.

Harrison Bryant | DK: $3.2k, FD: $5k | vs. LV | Cash (DK) & GPP

This is feeling a little point chase-y but the Browns runs plenty of two tight end sets so the rookie Bryant should see the field plenty alongside David Njoku while Austin Hooper (appendix) continues to be sidelined. Obviously, don’t count on the two TDs again but a handful of catches with 50-65 yards with a shot at one TD seems within reason for Bryant if he plays on 70-80% of snaps again (77% last week).

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Buffalo Bills | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. NE

Sloppy weather game against a struggling and banged up Pats squad, why not? Probably pay up for the Chiefs or Chargers is you have the salary to spare, but I don’t hate the Bills in this spot.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Chicago Bears | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. NO

Bears will get Drew Brews away from the Superdome with potentially limited weapons. Michael Thomas (ankle/hamstring) isn’t a lock to return this week and Emmanuel Sanders (C19) isn’t eligible to return either. Marquez Callaway was looking like a solid fill-in option at WR for the Saints last week but he’s also questionable with an ankle injury. The Bears might only have to really worry about Kamara and that’s about it.

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