By: @Ryan_Humphries

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We’re basically at the midway point of the regular season already… wild! With only two teams on bye (Ravens & Raiders) we have a bulkier 12-game main slate to crack into on this spooky Halloween Sunday There may not be a ton of marquee match-ups lined up on this slate but 9-of-12 games do check in with a spread of 4.5 points or lower. Several games, in particular, stand out as exciting DFS targets so let’s push the pedal to the metal and get into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Games to Target 🎯

Obvious Game Stack

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) @ New Orleans Saints | 50 O/U

TB: 27.3 implied points | NO: 22.8 implied points

Score Prediction: TB - 31, NO - 24

Game Notes: There isn't an overly obvious game to stack up on this slate but this one could certainly turn into a bit of a shootout. Both defenses qualify as “funnel defenses” and rank inside the top five in terms of rush DVOA. As a result, many opponents of the two teams are forced into a more pass-heavy approach. New Orleans currently ranks dead last in offensive tempo but they have also played “up” to the speed of their opponents at times this season. Tampa Bay ranks 12th in overall tempo and 7th in situation-neutral pace. The Bucs also pass at the 2nd highest rate of any team in the NFL (65.8% pass play%) which should help the overall play volume of this game. This is one of only two 50+ point total games on the slate and is of course being played inside a dome -- another plus for offensive potential.

Contrarian Game Stack

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions | 48 O/U

PHI: 25.8 implied points | DET: 22.3 implied points

Score Prediction: PHI - 27, DET - 24

Game Notes: This maybe isn’t an ultra sneaky game but I don’t believe anyone will be tripping over themselves to make sure they get exposure to these offenses. This is a match-up which features two defenses that rank inside the bottom 10 in overall DVOA, it’s a domed match-up with a close spread and a total that pushes 50 points, and both teams have operated among the fastest offenses this season. Philly ranks 2nd in overall tempo while Detroit ranks 6th. We should be on the lookout for a high volume of plays in this game (which leads to more fantasy point opportunities) with a decent chance of seeing the over hit.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.8k | vs. MIA

If you can find value elsewhere, I don’t see an issue paying up for the top QB on the slate in Josh Allen. The Bills check in with the highest implied point total on the slate (31.3 points). The Dolphins have also been smoked by opposing QBs lately and are allowing 333.8 YPG passing over their last four. Historically, even before he turned into the MVP caliber monster that he is today, Josh Allen has had some massive fantasy performances against the Dolphins (see image below) and he has passed for multiple touchdowns on each occasion in his seven previous meetings with them. Allen’s rushing prowess is the icing on the cake which has helped him post an average of 33.4 DKFP/31.1 FDFP across his last four starts. Coming out of their bye week, the Bills should be all systems go once again.

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.4k | @ DET

Hurts has been getting an uncomfortable amount of his fantasy points in garbage time situations this season but, by hook or by crook, he’s hitting somewhere in the vicinity of 25 FP every week. His dual-threat ability certainly aides his fantasy floor -- he’s averaging 51.6 rushing YPG and has five rushing TDs on the season. A match-up with Detroit’s leaky defense should likely lead to another productive week.

Teddy Bridgewater, DEN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7k | vs. WAS

It’s not a sexy play but this suggestion is heavily match-up driven given the fact that Washington has allowed THE most FPPG to opposing QBs this season (28.8 DK, 27.2 FD). The Broncos are also coming off of a long week after playing last Thursday night and Bridgewater will get arguably his most talented weapon back on the field with Jerry Jeudy returning from his ankle injury. If you’re desperate for value, Bridgewater has a very reasonable shot at posting a 20-25 FP kinda day against this awful Football Team defense.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

D’Andre Swift, DET | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.9k | vs. PHI

In season-long fantasy football, Swift has essentially been a WR2 and an RB2 all rolled into one player. With Detroit’s lack of receiving weapons and Jared Goff’s lack of… skill… Swift has been peppered with short dump-offs and screens week in and week out. He has a 20.4% TGT% this season, which is nearly unheard of for running backs not named Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey (when healthy, of course). While the massive price increase from previous weeks is a bit of a detractor, he’s fully deserving of the salaries he has heading into week eight. It’s an excellent match-up with an Eagles defense that has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to RBs and 5th most receptions.

James Robinson, JAX | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.2k | @ SEA

Robinson’s 72.9% snap% ranks 3rd among NFL RBs behind only Najee Harris and Alvin Kamara. His snaps have even gone up a tad in Jacksonville’s more recent games, closer to about 75%. In return, he has strung together some strong fantasy outings and is averaging 22.5 DKFP & 20.3 FDFP in their last four games. Seattle has been rolled over pretty hard by opposing workhorse RBs in recent weeks (see image below) and have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to opposing RBs this season. The Jags should continue to feature Robinson heavily as slight road underdogs this Sunday.

Darrell Henderson Jr., LAR | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | @ HOU

Henderson was in a smash spot last week against Detroit but didn’t exactly follow through with the smashing. He still handled 15 carries and caught 3-of-6 targets while playing a massive 88% of snaps. Detroit just happened to come out and play the Rams much tougher than expected. The Texans don’t exactly stand much of a chance to be competitive this week as they have lost four of their last five games by at least 15 points. Expect Henderson to operate as the clear-cut bellcow once again in an offense that will move the ball and score with relative ease.

Kenneth Gainwell, PHI | DK: $5k, FD: $5.9k | @ DET

With Miles Sanders on IR, the Eagles will now turn to a split backfield featuring Gainwell and Boston Scott. My guess is that it will be close to a 60/40 split in favor of Gainwell, who is also the preferred receiving back. Once Sanders went down after playing 12 snaps last week, Gainwell out-snapped Scott 35-to-23 and was targeted eight times. Both guys found their way into the endzone last week and came away with nearly the same amount of total touches, but Gainwell’s heavier receiving involvement will make him the preferred DFS target against Detroit.

Michael Carter, NYJ | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.7k | vs. CIN

The rookie saw his snap share increase from 51% in week four to 52% in week five, the Jets had a bye in week six, and Carter came out and played a season-high 72% of snaps in week seven (and caught 8-of-9 targets!). The absence of Tevin Coleman helps boost Carter’s snap rate a bit and in what is another lost season for the Jets, they would be wise to get their rookie running back more touches and game experience instead of continually giving half of the RB work to a largely ineffective Ty Johnson. Carter is a GPP play only and there is uncertainty surrounding whether Mike White or the newly acquired Joe Flacco will be quarterbacking for New York on Sunday. It seems as if White will get the nod for now but either way, Carter should likely play in a similar capacity to his week seven performance.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $9k, FD: $9.2k | @ HOU

The Rams are essentially a three-man offense with Stafford/Kupp/Henderson responsible for nearly all meaningful fantasy production in any given week. Kupp has garnered double-digit targets in every game this season and possesses a massive 33.8% TGT%. This is all but guaranteed to turn into a blowout, but Kupp should do his share of the damage before the Rams take their foot off the gas.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | vs. NYJ

The Jets actually have a sneaky decent secondary which has actually allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs. Chase is also a bit more big play dependent and isn’t a target monster that many WRs at similar price points profile as. Still, he’s averaged a solid 8.8 targets/gm over the Bengals last four games and has been smashing rookie receiving records. He’s worth a shot in GPPs basically every week at this point.

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | @ NO

Antonio Brown will miss another week of action with an ankle injury but it appears the Bucs will be getting Gronk back into the mix. Evans is likely going to see shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore, who has held him in check in previous seasons. However, Lattimore has been struggling in coverage for much of the year and the Saints have surrendered the 4th most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last four weeks. Evans is another guy I probably wouldn’t look to go to in cash games, but for tournaments? You bet.

AJ Brown, TEN | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.6k | @ IND

The Julio Jones news (OUT this Sunday) broke as I was uploading this article so I'm adding AJ Brown here on the fly. He was already starting to look more like himself the last couple of games and should now easily pace the Titans in targets in a game that checks in with the highest total on the slate. It's also easier to pass on the Colts than it is to run on 'em (though, Derrick Henry is a cheat code so that trend may not apply this week).

Emmanuel Sanders, BUF | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.7k | vs. MIA

Sanders is an affordable piece to this Bills passing attack that should feast against a weak Dolphins secondary on Sunday. Sanders is easily the standout deep threat in this offense with a team-leading 17.3-yard aDOT. While he isn’t commanding a ton of volume, he’s still seeing an average of 6.3 targets/gm and is averaging 17.2 YPC. If he finds the endzone, he likely returns 3x-4x value with ease this week.

Jerry Jeudy, DEN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6k | vs. WAS

The risk here is pretty obvious. Jeudy hasn’t played since injuring his ankle in week one so there is certainly some hesitation surrounding what his potential workload may be. But he is reportedly “ready to go” and if he sees little to no limitations, this is about as ideal of a match-up as you could ask for as a receiver. WFT has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to opposing WRs and Jeudy was a guy who was on many people’s radars as a major breakout candidate in his second NFL season. While you can’t roster him with absolute confidence, he should absolutely fall into GPP consideration at these salaries.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Kyle Pitts, ATL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | vs. CAR

It’s kinda slim pickings at the TE position this week and Pitts will check in as the most expensive option on both sites. By all accounts, he deserves that honor following a two-game stretch where Pitts has caught 16-of-18 targets for 282 yards and a TD. It would seem that Atlanta has finally figured out how to utilize their rookie phenom and they will head into a week eight divisional home match-up with Carolina which possesses some somewhat sneaky high-scoring potential.

Dallas Goedert, PHI | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.9k | @ DET

With Ertz shipped off the Arizona, in his first game back after sitting on the COVID reserve list, Goedert played a whopping 93% of snaps in week seven. That only amounted to five targets, but Goedert caught three of those for 70 yards. I would think that five targets are basically his floor moving forward so look out for a strong performance against a suspect Lions defense.

Dan Arnold, JAX | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.9k | @ SEA

As is often the case with these cheap TEs, Arnold makes much more sense on DK which has a lower salary floor for the position than FanDuel. At $2,800 you clearly won’t need a massive performance for him to return 3x-4x value. He has played close to 70% of snaps in the Jaguars last two games and has earned 13 targets in that stretch. Arnold was a mid-season acquisition from the Panthers, so now that the Jags are coming out of a bye week, they may have better plans in place to utilize him within their game plan.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Cincinnati Bengals | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.9k | @ NYJ

It’s usually going to be more optimal to spend down on your D/ST but Cincy has a chance to face against Mike White (who I had never heard of before last week) or Joe Flacco, who will have very minimal knowledge of the Jets playbook after being traded a couple of days ago. Opposing D/STs are averaging 11.0 FP against the Jets this season.

The Buffalo Bills (DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.7k) would be another appealing “non-punt” D/ST option, particularly on DraftKings.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Jacksonville Jaguars | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.5k | @ SEA

Jags are fresh off their bye and fill face Geno Smith who just isn’t providing much of a spark at all to this Seahawks offense. There’s a decent chance of getting 8-10 FP out of this Jacksonville D/ST on Sunday.

Touchdown Call 🏈

Emmanuel Sanders, BUF | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.7k | vs. MIA

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