By: @Ryan_Humphries

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It’s been a turbulent week across the NFL so getting a new set of games to look ahead to and, hopefully, some more positive storylines will be welcomed with open arms. We’re not taking the worst of hits with the teams on bye this week (Lions, Seahawks, Football Team, Buccaneers) so this Sunday’s 11-game main slate still features a slew of great players to choose from. The bookies are not expecting many barn burners on this slate as only one game (LAC @ PHI) will eclipse the 50 point total mark. Plenty of match-ups are not far off that number, however, and 8-of-11 games feature a single score spread so we should have some quality games ahead of us. Let’s dive into a couple of games to target and some plays to consider at each position!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Games to Target 🎯

Obvious Game Stack

Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Philadelphia Eagles | 50 O/U

LAC: 26.0 implied points | PHI: 24.0 implied points

Score Prediction: LAC - 30, PHI - 24

Game Notes: This match-up may seem like it’s being pointed out simply due to holding the highest total of the slate. While that is certainly a bonus, the pace of this game is the major draw here. Both of these teams rank inside the top five in both overall offensive tempo as well as situation-neutral pace: LAC - 2nd (in both), PHI - 5th (in both). Chargers games have also averaged the 7th most total points while Eagles games have averaged the 9th most. Neither team is awful defensively, but more so middle-of-the-pack. Given the close two-point spread here, I’d say this is a game where pieces from both sides are very viable in DFS this week.

Contrarian Game Stack

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-5.5) | 46.5 O/U

HOU: 20.5 implied points | MIA: 26.0 implied points

Score Prediction: HOU - 23, MIA - 28

Game Notes: Ahh, if this game had a face, it’d be a face that only a mother could love… or perhaps a DFS degen like myself who is searching for some relatively cheap plays from within a sneaky high-scoring game environment. Both defenses rank among the bottom 10 teams in terms of overall DVOA: MIA - 26th, HOU - 23rd. While Houston (22nd in pace) isn’t exactly a fast tempo offense, they should see increased plays due to Miami’s (8th in pace) higher tempo offense which also ranks 2nd in the NFL in pass play percentage. Perhaps the biggest game note to mention here is that the Texans will see QB Tyrod Taylor return to the field this week. With Taylor at the helm over the first two weeks, the Texans offense looked… dare I say… competent? Houston scored a combined 58 points over their first two games with Taylor as the starter. While 37 of those points came against Jacksonville, it isn’t as if Miami’s defense is a whole helluva lot better than those Jaguars. So, with all that said, I’d say keep this game in mind when building your lineups and player pool this week. You don’t have to go overboard on it, but there could certainly be some DFS value stemming from these two teams.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Lamar Jackson, BAL | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.3k | vs. MIN

If you’d like to spend all the way up for Josh Allen ($8.2k/$9k) and run some single and/or double stacks, who would blame you? Certainly not me. For a bit of a discount, dropping down to Lamar Jackson could provide a similar floor + ceiling combo. Jackson’s 8.6 yards per pass attempt is currently at a career high and he’s still coming through with a ton of great rushing upside (68.6 YPG). While the Vikings have been fairly stingy against QBs this season (9th fewest FPPG allowed), they’ve had problems when on the road where QBs have averaged 24.6 DKFP/23.3 FDFP per game against them. Jackson has also been nails at home where he has completed 70.1% of his passes and has averaged 77 yards on the ground, resulting in 30.0 DKFP and 28.3 FDFP per game.

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.6k | vs. CLE

There’s been one NFL quarterback who has thrown for multiple touchdowns in every game this season and that man’s name is Joe Burrow. As a result, Burrow has been an excellent option when it comes to running double stacks in tournaments (a QB + two of his pass catchers). The Browns are much more susceptible against the pass (25th in pass DVOA) than the run (3rd in run DVOA) and they have allowed 31.1 DKFP and 29.1 FDFP per game to opposing QBs when they play on the road this season. After an embarrassing loss to the Jets last Sunday, look for Cincy to be motivated in a big way this week.

Jordan Love, GB | DK: $4.4k, FD: $6k | @ KC

With Aaron Rodgers out with COVID, how can ya not at least throw some consideration towards Love who brings basement level salaries to the table? While a road match-up in Kansas City is never ideal for a young QB, this Chiefs defense obviously hasn’t been playing up to snuff this year. They are allowing an awful 8.1 yards per pass attempt this season (ranks 29th) along with the 2nd most FPPG to QBs. With the exception of TE Robert Tonyan (ACL), the Packers receiving corps is nearing full strength (most notably, Davante Adams is back) which clearly bodes well for Love. Love deserves some consideration as a GPP dart throw this week, particularly at that $4,400 price tag on DK. Going with Love and a cheap defense would leave you with an average of over $6,000 left per player to fill out your lineup on DK. Just sayin’. 

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Austin Ekeler, LAC | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9k | @ PHI

It’s another smash spot for Ekeler this Sunday as he will face an Eagles defense that allows the 2nd most FPPG to RBs, including the 3rd most receptions. Ekeler leads all RBs on the slate with an average of 6.1 targets/gm which equates to a 15.3% TGT% -- a very strong TGT% for a running back. Ekeler also heads into this week without any sort of injury designation, which is always a nice bit of relief considering how often he picks up a mid-week issue that will typically pin him with a “questionable” tag.

Aaron Jones, GB | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k | @ KC

Last week with the Packers receiving corps in shambles, Jones predictably saw a major uptick in his usage in this passing game (11 targets!). That trend could continue, though for a completely different reason. Young QBs, such as Jordan Love, will often use their RBs as safety valves via the check down pass and short screens. Jones already handles an elite level of his team’s red zone rushing attempts (66.7%) and, while double-digit targets for a second week in a row would be a bit optimistic, I could certainly see 6-8 targets heading in Jones’ direction. The Chiefs have allowed the 7th most receptions and 5th most receiving yards to RBs this year.

Ezekiel Elliot, DAL | DK: $7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. DEN

Let’s highlight one more pricey RB this week with Zeke looking at a juicy match-up. Despite Tony Pollard’s increased role this season, Zeke is still seeing great usage (16.9 rushes/gm, 3.7 targets/gm). He’ll run up against a Denver defense that has allowed 34.6 DKFP/30.2 FDFP per game over their last four games and that was before they traded away OLB Von Miller to the Rams. The Cowboys have a team total that nears 30 points and they’re favored by 10 points at home, which always bodes well for an RB-heavy game script. 

Myles Gaskin, MIA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.1k | vs. HOU

It’s time to hunt for a bit of RB value with Gaskin. With Malcolm Brown on the IR, Gaskin is seeing much more of a featured role. He played on 63% of snaps in week seven and 58% of snaps in week eight. Sure, it’s not a workhorse role, necessarily, but Gaskin did handle 27 carries and was targeted eight times in that two game stretch -- and that was largely in a negative RB game script. The Dolphins will be -5.5 point home favorites this week and we could project Gaskin to push for 20 total touches against a Texans defense that allows the 11th most FPPG to RBs along with 4.8 YPC (3rd highest).

Boston Scott, PHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.3k | vs. LAC

Is anyone ready to pull the lever on the Eagles RB slot machine again? With Miles Sanders landing on IR, the Eagles used a three back rotation in week eight. Scott led the way with a 42% snap% followed by Gainwell (29%) and Howard (23%). When in doubt, follow the snaps. Of course Philly’s week eight game was a 44-6 shellacking of the Detroit Lions, so it’s a bit difficult to say how things will shake out in a more competitive game environment, but Scott was the official starter after all and he scored his two TDs before the game was completely out of hand. The Chargers also rank dead last in run DVOA and have surrendered the 5th most FPPG to RBs. 

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyreek Hill, KC | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.5k | vs. GB

Tyreek is being utilized in a completely different way this season than what we’ve seen in the past. While his 10-yard aDOT is down noticeably from previous seasons, his target volume has seen a significant increase, especially lately. After an 18-target game on MNF, Hill is now averaging 13.0 targets/gm over his last four. That is *only* resulting in 70.5 YPG but given his game breaking ability, that’s likely to increase if he continues to see all of those looks. Kansas City, and Patrick Mahomes in particular, has quite a bit to correct if they want to push for a playoff run, so even if they get up big on the Jordan Love-led Packers, expect the Chiefs to stay aggressive for all four quarters as they try to get back to being the dominant offense we've come accustomed to seeing.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | $7.6k, FD: $7.9k | vs. CLE

I’ll start off by saying that I am absolutely not a believer in seemingly random “up/down” trends like the one Chase has been showcasing this year. Chase’s down week last Sunday is a simple result of only hauling in 3-of-9 targets, which is an outlier considering he is catching a decent 64.4% of his targets this season. He still salvaged his day with a touchdown in week eight, but I believe we do go back to him here and expect another big performance out of the Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. His targets are up to an average of 8.8 per game over the last four weeks and the Browns have allowed the 5th most FPPG to WRs over their last four games as well.

Brandin Cooks, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $6.8k | @ MIA

Cooks will receive a notable QB upgrade with Tyrod Taylor back in action. With Taylor playing about a game and a half before getting injured at the start of the year, Cooks saw 21 total targets, a 36% TGT%, and 56% of Houston’s total air yards in that span resulting in 14 receptions for 201 yards and a TD. Cooks likely draws plenty of shadow coverage from Xavien Howard this week, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Howard has massively underperformed this season and Miami has allowed the 4th most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Cooks - 71% perimeter routes). Cooks has also caught an impressive 72.9% of his targets this year… which is even more impressive considering the QB play he’s had to work with and the fact that opposing defenses realize that he is the primary passing threat on this Texans team.

Marquise Brown, BAL | DK: $6k, FD: $7.7k | vs. MIN

Hollywood Brown will be a much more enticing play on DraftKings, where he simply seems underpriced by around $800 or so. Brown was trending up nicely towards the back half of last season and has now stepped into a legitimate WR1 role this year. He’s receiving a strong 25.1% TGT% to go along with an outstanding 16-yard aDOT. Given that lengthy aDOT (3rd longest among WRs who have averaged at least 6.0 tgt/gm), he has provided a strong 64.9% catch%. The Vikings have allowed an incredibly high 50 DKFP/40.1 FDFP per game to WRs when on the road this season, so Brown could certainly still continue to eat in this match-up.

Jaylen Waddle, MIA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.1k | vs. HOU

DeVante Parker returned from a three week absence last Sunday and commanded 11 targets. Waddle still saw a healthy dose of targets himself with 12 and has now averaged 9.8 targets/gm over his last four games. Parker has now been downgraded to “doubtful” after having a setback in practice with his shoulder and/or hamstring injuries. That leaves Waddle as the clear-cut top WR once again and he’ll see a juicy match-up against Houston, who has allowed the 6th most FPPG to WRs over the last four weeks.

Hunter Renfrow, LV | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.6k | @ NYG

Despite the awful off-the-field issues the Raiders are dealing with this season, they still find themselves with a 5-2 record and plenty of playoff hopes. Obviously, Henry Ruggs is no longer a part of this team and Darren Waller may still not be 100% even though he’s been removed from the injury report after dealing with an ankle issue. Even if Waller gets peppered, Renfrow still stands out as a strong value play against a Giants defense that has allowed the 5th most FPPG to slot WRs this season, including the 2nd most over the last four weeks (Renfrow - 60% slot routes). 

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. GB

As of Friday, I’m seeing precisely zero “loves” on both the DraftKings and FanDuel LineStar sections. I mean, I get it. Kelce hasn’t had a good “Kelce-like” game since week three, and even then that was only a 7/104/0 game (20.4 DKFP, 14.4 FDFP). Maybe you don’t have to go here in cash games but if we’re looking at potential <10% ownership on the best fantasy tight end in football, then sign me up for some exposure in GPPs. Ya gotta zig when everyone else zags sometimes.

Mike Gesicki, MIA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.5k | vs. HOU

DeVante Parker’s return last week seemed to have the largest negative effect on Gesicki more than anyone else. Gesicki still came away with three receptions for 48 yards on only four targets -- in the wasteland that is the tight end position, that’s honestly not bad. Now that Parker is doubtful to suit up, we could likely see another game where Gesicki is utilized as a primary receiver, much like in week six (8/115/0 on 9 tgts) and week seven (7/85/1 on 8 tgts). Of course, there’s nothing wrong with the defensive match-up either -- Houston allows the 7th most FPPG to opposing TEs.

Tyler Conklin, MIN | DK: $3k, FD: $5.7k | @ BAL

As usual, these cheap TE options are usually best considered for DraftKings given the much lower salary floor at the position. Over the Vikings last five games, Conklin has possessed a notable role and has been targeted 29 times in that stretch. Baltimore’s defense has given up a ton of production to the position and has actually allowed THE most FPPG to tight ends -- an average of 20.4 DKFP/16.2 FDFP per game. Conklin is rarely coming off the field (78.5% snap%) so he could be in for an excellent week. At the very least, you don’t need much out of him on DraftKings considering he’ll eat up a mere $3,000 of your budget. 

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Buffalo Bills | DK: $4k, FD: $5.2k | @ JAX

It may be a week where going contrarian and spending up for a D/ST, specifically the Bills D/ST, pays off. They’ve scored between 10 and 22 FP in four of their last six games and will face a Jags offense that has allowed 9.6 FPPG to opposing D/STs this season. 

Riskier but more affordable option:

Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. GB

While I believe Green Bay can certainly put up some decent production and points against this BAD defense, this Chiefs D/ST is also currently priced as if they’re facing Aaron Rodgers. Obviously, they’re not. They’re also at home this week, which is a nice bonus. If Jordan Love makes a couple of major mistakes, the Chiefs D/ST could easily return value at these salaries.

Touchdown Call 🏈

THE GREAT Hunter Renfrow, LV | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.6k | @ NYG

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