Another loaded NFL Sunday rolls around and we'll preview a mix of DFS studs and value plays to consider for your week nine lineups!

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Week 9 NFL PreSnap Podcast 🎙️

Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville's run down on this Sunday's NFL DFS main slate!

Also, for anyone looking to roll out some NFL props this week, be sure to check out the info and videos at the end of this article featuring usage of LineStar's new Prop Edge+ for NFL tool. This tool can help make prop bettors some extra cash -- especially on sites like PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

A free two-pick PrizePicks "Power Play" is posted at the end of this article as well!

Week 9 DFS Main Slate Rundown 📝

Apologies for the late NFL main slate newsletter this week. I've been extremely under the weather throughout this weekend but managed to get it together long enough to put this bad boy together. I will survive so no pity for me, please. Now, let's go over some of the top plays, along with a few contrarian options, for Sunday's 10-game NFL main slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could see wet conditions, high winds, or (when we get into the winter months) frigid, snowy conditions.

The forecasts can always change so, as always, run a final weather check closer to kickoff!

MIA @ CHI (1.00 ET, 45.5 O/U): 15+ mph winds. Nothing too crazy.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.3k | @ NYJ

Allen is having the type of season where you’re almost forced to keep him in DFS consideration each week. I mean, he’s coming off his worst game of the year and he still netted 19.62 DKFP -- now averaging 30.1 DKFPPG. The match-up may not jump off the page considering the Jets have been stout against QBs and allow the 8th fewest FPPG to the position. But then, when you consider that over half of the QBs they have played against this season consist of guys like Mac Jones, Brett Rypien, Skyler Thompson, Jacoby Brissett, and Kenny Pickett/Mitch Trubisky, you begin to see why they have been successful at limiting opposing QB production. Realistically, Josh Allen is about as “match-up proof” as it gets and the only real hurdle he faces would be a negative game script with the Bills being huge -11.5 favorites on the road. However, Allen and the Bills have stayed aggressive throughout multiple blowout games this season.

Aaron Rodgers, GB | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7k | @ DET

Rodgers has been impressively mediocre this season and has now scored between 15.7 and 17.3 DKFP in six of his last seven games. Of course, Rodgers’ struggles are not entirely his fault given the rather depleted set of receiving weapons he has to work with. If there is ever a week for Rodgers & Co. to get off the schneid, it would be this week. The Lions rank dead last in pass DVOA, last in pass completion rate (69.3%), and last in yards per pass attempt (8.4). They have also given up a score on an NFL-high 47.3% of opposing offensive drives. This game features a slate-high 49.5 O/U and high-scoring shootouts have been a running theme in Detroit Lions games throughout this season.

Geno Smith, SEA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.5k | @ ARI

Geno has been a strong DFS floor play, scoring below 15.1 DKFP just twice this season. One of those two down games for Geno came against this Cardinals team in week six (12.68 DKFP). However, that was a game where the Seahawks were still able to move the ball effectively but they had several drives stall out deep into Cardinals territory, resulting in four <40-yard Jason Myers field goals. Overall, the Cardinals have been a QB-friendly match-up this season, as they allow the 7th most FPPG to QBs, including an average of 27.1 DKFPPG to QBs when playing in Arizona. There is a strong chance this game can turn into a shootout so we can look for a quality showing from Geno Smith on Sunday.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Austin Ekeler, LAC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.4k | @ ATL

If there was a very specific award for DFS MVP from weeks 4-thru-7, my vote would immediately go to Austin Ekeler. In that four-game span, Ekeler scored eight touchdowns, averaged 129.5 total YPG, and caught 8.0 receptions/gm while scoring 33.7 DKFPPG. Ekeler’s role as a receiver has been awesome and does wonders for his fantasy floor. He may continue to see 10+ targets considering both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen will not suit up this Sunday.

Travis Etienne Jr., JAX | $6.3k, FD: $7.6k | vs. LV

In the first game since dealing away RB James Robinson to the Jets, Etienne played 79% of snaps and received 27 total touches. That represented a massive 41.5% touch%, which ranked 4th among week eight NFL RBs. Etienne ran with his newfound fully featured opportunity and racked up 162 total yards and a touchdown against the Broncos. I don’t necessarily believe Etienne will be given 25+ touches on a routine basis, but 18-21 touches most weeks seems like a strong bet. Las Vegas has held RBs to 4.0 YPC this season but they’ve also allowed the 2nd most receptions per game to RBs (7.4). So, even if it is tough sledding on the ground, Etienne could have a high impact as a receiver.

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE | DK: $6.2k, FD: $8k | vs. IND

Stevenson should be one of the more popular RB options this week but he’s an extremely tough guy to fade at the moment. Damien Harris (illness) is not expected to suit up and even when he has been active recently, he has taken a major backseat to Stevenson in the Pats backfield. Stevenson leads all RBs on this slate with a 78% snap% over the last four weeks. In that stretch, Stevenson is averaging 17.3 rushes/gm, 86.8 rushing YPG (4.9 YPC), 5.3 receptions/gm, and 40.0 receiving YPG. That high involvement has led to a four-game average of 23.2 DKFPPG. Stevenson has proven to be one of the more elusive runners in the league, ranking 5th in yards after contact per attempt and 2nd in rush attempts per broken tackle. Stevenson has a middling match-up against the Colts this week but he’s likely in line for another 20+ touches and the Patriots check in as strong -6 home favorites.

D’Onta Foreman, CAR | DK: $6k, FD: $7.3k | @ CIN

Foreman’s 26 touches in week eight represented a 35.6% touch%, which was 8th among week 8 NFL RBs. The other seven RBs ahead of him were D. Henry, CMC, Kamara, Etienne, Aaron Jones, D. Cook, and Saquon. That is some elite RB company to keep. With Chuba Hubbard out again this week, the door is open for another workhorse role for Foreman. While he may be known as nothing more than a backup for his NFL career, Foreman has stepped up to the plate just about any time he has been asked to handle a featured role. He was also a third-round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft (Texans) which is high draft capital to spend on an RB, so that gives you an idea of what NFL scouts thought of his talent. Foreman’s average of 3.1 yards before contact ranks 8th among NFL RBs and this match-up against the Bengals may not be as scary as it initially seems. The Bengals are on a short week after getting hammered for 172 yards rushing on 44 carries by the Browns on MNF. Cincy’s run defense has also been heavily impacted by the loss of run-stopping DT DJ Reader in week three. Foreman’s ownership should go under the radar this week so consider him a strong GPP pivot off of guys like Stevenson and Etienne.

Deon Jackson, IND | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5k | @ NE

The Colts will be without Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Nyheim Hines (traded to BUF) which means Deon Jackson should work in as the featured back. Now, it’s not a good match-up (NE: 2nd fewest FPPG allowed to RBs) and Jackson has only averaged 3.3 YPC this season. But it is hard to forget his week six game (Taylor & Hines were both out) where he caught 10 passes for 79 yards against the Jags. I probably wouldn’t touch Deon Jackson in cash lineups but if you need a cheap RB for GPPs, the volume should be there for him this week.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyreek Hill, MIA | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | @ CHI

The Dolphins are getting the ball to Tyreek by any means necessary. He leads the NFL with 92 targets this season and has at least 12 targets in 6-of-8 games. The Bears have allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to opposing WRs this season but they have enjoyed some rather easy match-ups with a slew of offenses that do not typically pass the ball well. Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in QBR (78.7) and yards per attempt (9.0). He’s also 3rd in completion rate (69.9%) so this is one of the best passing attacks the Bears will have faced up to this point. We can use a guy like Justin Jefferson as a match-up comparison as well. Jefferson brought in 12-of-13 targets for 154 yards when he ran up against this Bears secondary in week five. Tyreek should be a perfectly fine WR spend-up option this week.

DeAndre Hopkins, ARI | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.6k | vs. SEA

Hopkins has wasted no time sliding back into his alpha receiver role following his six-game suspension to start the year. In his two games back, he has a combined 27 targets (37.5% TGT%), 22 receptions, 262 yards, and a touchdown. The Seahawks have given up the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs this season but Hopkins is a near lock for 10+ targets and he has made plenty of tough secondaries look silly throughout his career. I also find it hard to knock Hopkins’ match-up when he’s likely going to run most of his routes against a fifth-round rookie cornerback (Tariq Woolen).

DJ Moore, CAR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7k | @ CIN

“PJ Walker has unlocked DJ Moore” is probably not a phrase anyone thought they’d hear this season but that does seem to be the case over the last couple of weeks. Moore was putting up a solid performance even before the 62-yard touchdown catch with 12 seconds left on the clock last week. But he now has 13 catches for 221 yards and two TDs over the Panthers’ last two games and it is likely no coincidence that those two performances have come in the post-CMC era in Carolina. Somewhat surprisingly, Moore leads all NFL receivers with an absurd 40.4% TGT% and 53.4% AirYard% -- and no one else is exactly a close second in either category (Tyreek: 33.6% TGT%, AJ Brown: 46.1% AirYard%). Now, we can’t act like this is some sort of elite offense and that fortunate week eight Hail Mary TD took DJ Moore from a “good” play to an optimal play. But the targets and air yards that Moore should see most weeks give him plenty of upside and he’ll face a Bengals secondary that has been depleted by injuries, most recently losing Chidobe Awuzie to a torn ACL.

Romeo Doubs, GB | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.1k | @ DET

If we’re expecting Aaron Rodgers to have perhaps his best game of the season in this juicy Lions match-up, well, that would have to mean that the Packers receivers have a big week as well. I do like Allen Lazard (DK: $6k, FD: $6.5k) as a mid-range WR option if he can suit up. For now, Doubs is a standout WR target for the Packers. He leads all Packers WRs with an 88% snap% over the last four weeks and the rookie has looked like Rodgers’ favorite target at times this season. The Lions have allowed an NFL-high 71% catch% to WRs this season. If Rodgers does manage to get some momentum going through the air, he may keep his foot on the gas through all four quarters as the Packers look to iron out some frustration that has plagued their passing offense throughout this season.

If Lazard is out again this Sunday, Samori Toure (DK: $3k, FD: $4.6k) is an intriguing dart throw, primarily on DraftKings where he is the stone minimum $3k.

Joshua Palmer, LAC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.2k | @ ATL

This is one of the easier plays to point out in week nine. Palmer looks to fill in as a primary receiver due to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both being sidelined this week. In the three games that Palmer has played at least 75% of snaps this season (weeks 2, 3, and 6), he has garnered 29 targets (9.7 TGT/gm) and averaged 14.5 DKFPPG. The match-up also doesn’t get much better. The Falcons rank 30th in pass DVOA and have allowed THE most FPPG to opposing WRs this season.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Zach Ertz, ARI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.6k | vs. SEA

We don’t have the stud tight ends available which leads to Ertz being the most expensive tight end on the slate. It’s not as if he is priced up like he’s Travis Kelce or something and playing TEs against Seattle (most FPPG allowed to TEs) has been a running theme all season. Ertz is playing 85% of snaps and seeing a solid 7.5 TGT/gm this season -- his role skyrockets in the redzone where he has a huge 37.8% RZ TGT%. The TE position is always a great spot to save some salary but Ertz provides a valuable floor, he’s not overly expensive to begin with, the Seahawks match-up elevates his ceiling, and he’ll likely check in with some fairly low ownership in what should be one of the higher-scoring games on the slate. When Seattle has gone on the road this season, opposing TEs are averaging a massive 28.9 DKFPPG.

Gerald Everett, LAC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.8k | @ ATL

Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are the big-name absences but the Chargers will also be without TE Donald Parham Jr. It’s not as if Parham has played much this season, but it does further solidify Everett as a primary option for the Chargers passing attack this week. Even though they’ve only allowed one touchdown to tight ends this year, the Falcons still give up the 4th most FPPG to the position. Everett should be a good bet for 7-to-10 targets on Sunday.

Evan Engram, JAX | DK: $3.3k, FD: $5.2k | vs. LV

I fully expect Engram to be the most popular TE target on this slate and, hey, why shouldn’t he be? He’s been a great floor option for the last month. Engram’s 21.2% TGT% and 7.3 TGT/gm over the last four games have led the Jaguars in that span. He’s cheap (especially on DK) and draws a juicy match-up against the Raiders (3rd most FPPG allowed to TEs).

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: New England Patriots | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.9k | vs. IND

DraftKings Preferred: Tampa Bay Bucs | DK: $3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. LAR

Value D/ST: Carolina Panthers | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3.3k | @ CIN

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, DeAndre Hopkins

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Aaron Rodgers, Romeo Doubs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Justin Herbert, Joshua Palmer, Austin Ekeler

Value Team Stack

Trevor Lawrence, Evan Engram, Travis Etienne

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp WR

PJ Walker, DJ Moore, Tee Higgins

Touchdown Call 🏈

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE | DK: $6.2k, FD: $8k | vs. IND

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Zach Ertz MORE than 4.0 Receptions

Rhamondre Stevenson MORE than 17.5 Fantasy Score

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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