By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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It has been yet another turbulent week across the U.S., for many obvious reasons unrelated to football. Though, the sport of football has had its own cloud of apprehension hovering overhead in recent days. COVID-related issues are already turning the Thursday night Packers vs. 49ers match-up into what is essentially a glorified preseason game. Earlier today, the Houston Texans announced that they’re shutting down team facilities for the day due to a player testing positive (unnamed at this time). It isn’t my place to predict whether things are going to get better or worse amidst a pandemic, but here’s to hoping.

But to cut away from the doom and gloom, let’s look ahead to this 11-game main slate, shall we? This week officially moves us past the halfway point of the regular season and we now have 7-8 games worth of data for every team, which is a terrific sample size moving forward. After a windy and, in some places, wet Sunday in week eight, I don’t believe weather will be nearly as impactful across this slate of games -- so that’s at least one less headache to deal with. Though, as we get closer to Sunday, be sure to keep an eye on the Daily Dashboard for more up-to-date game forecasts.

Week 11 main slate match-ups with implied team totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ Buffalo Bills | 55 O/U

SEA: 29.0 implied points | BUF: 26.0 implied points

SEA: 21st in offensive tempo | BUF: 23rd in offensive tempo

This is the “Captain Obvious game to target” this week, no question. The 55 point total is not only the highest of the week but one of the highest implied totals we’ve seen this season. Neither team may push the tempo on offense but this game features two teams that can create a great fantasy scoring environment. Both Seattle (3rd) and Buffalo (8th) rate out as top 10 teams in offensive efficiency, while checking in towards the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency (SEA - 21st, BUF - 23rd). That’s always a great recipe for a potential shootout. On top of that, you have Vegas predicting a close game with Seattle going into Buffalo as three point road favorites. Finally, this should be great football weather: temps in the mid 60s, sunny, and <5 mph winds (as forecasted on Thursday). You can attack this week’s main slate with several guys on both sides of this game.

Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) | 52.5 O/U

CAR: 21.0 implied points | KC: 31.5 implied points

CAR: 28th in offensive tempo | KC: 17th in offensive tempo

This game is more suited for finding some GPP plays, simply due to the moderately high blowout risk. But the likely return of Christian McCaffrey, along with having a mini bye week (haven’t played since last Thursday), could allow the Panthers to be a bit more competitive in this game. Vegas opened this match-up with a 50.5 O/U but the total has already risen a couple of points since then while 60% of public bets are currently coming in on the over (per actionnetwork.com). I believe we could see this total push close to 54 once we reach kick-off, assuming the Panthers do in fact have CMC in the fold. The Chiefs continue to do Chiefs things and, more often than not, each week they’re going to produce two or three players who end up with performances that land them in optimal DFS lineups. Predicting the right guy(s) to roll with is always the hard part, of course. (Note: Just saw the Chiefs put DT Chris Jones on the reserve/C-19 list, which is a boost for the Panthers offensive potential)

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Russell Wilson | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9k | Cash & GPP

Russ continues to string together an MVP-caliber season and has proven in every game this season to be a safe and secure fantasy asset. Wilson’s 71.5% completion rate and 8.4 YPA both rank third in the NFL, while his 26 passing TDs paces the league by five scores (Mahomes, 21 TDs). The touchdown rate will almost certainly regress but it may not begin this week considering Seattle could be without starting RB Chris Carson (foot - questionable to play) while backup RB Carlos Hyde (hamstring) has already been ruled out. Operation “Let Russ Cook” is likely to continue frying and if you can save a bit of salary elsewhere, Wilson should be a solid high-end DFS investment. Lastly, Buffalo ranks 22nd in pass defense efficiency.

Deshaun Watson | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.3k | Cash & GPP

In the three games since the Texans fired Bill O’Brien, Watson has a 9:2 TD: INT ratio while passing for 334.3 YPG and completing 73.9% of his passes. He has also added 29.7 YPG rushing in that three game stretch. Houston has passed on 62.4% of plays in those three games as well, which has been the 5th highest pass rate in the NFL. One of those games came against this same Jacksonville defense, which checks in dead last in the NFL in pass defense efficiency. There are some slight weather concerns in this game (possible rain, 10-15 mph winds) and Jacksonville is starting a second-string QB so there is some blowout risk as well. But I still think Watson brings a strong floor/ceiling combo to the table this week.

Derek Carr | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7k | GPP Preferred

This game currently checks in as a straight-up pick ‘em alongside a high 51.5 O/U. These two very evenly matched teams could easily produce a bit of a shootout. This match-up for Carr may be the best one he’s had in weeks, possibly the season. The Chargers have allowed the 4th most FPPG to QBs this season and Carr should have his full complement of weapons at his disposal. Disregard the poor performance out of this offense last week against Cleveland, in what was a really rough environment weather-wise. As a result of that low offensive output game, many of these Las Vegas players are really cheap. I’d stick with them in GPPs only, but you can create a very intriguing and affordable Raiders passing attack stack this Sunday.

Chase Daniel | DK: $4k, FD: $6k | DraftKings Only

I’m just throwing Daniel’s name out there for DK players since he’s the stone-cold minimum salary for a QB at $4k. Daniel would receive the start against Minnesota if Matthew Stafford (added to the reserve/C-19 list on Wednesday) does indeed need to miss this game. Reportedly, Stafford has had two rounds of negative tests but, even if he continues to test negative, he won’t be eligible to be activated until Sunday. If the Lions go into their 1 o’clock ET game without him, Daniel could fairly easily return 3x-4x value on his $4,000 salary.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.5k | @ KC | GPP Only

There’s still no official word on whether or not CMC will be active for this game but according to coach Matt Rhule, “things are trending and moving in the right direction”. Now, you couldn’t comfortably trust McCaffrey in a cash lineup in his first game off of IR since suffering an ankle injury back in week two. However, if he handles say around 70-80% of his typical workload, he could still turn in a stellar performance while entering the week at a slight discount in DFS (by CMC standards). The Chiefs may allow the 12th fewest FPPG to opposing RBs (most teams are forced to pass once they fall behind on the scoreboard) but in terms of efficiency, they actually rate out very poorly. They rank 28th in run defense efficiency and give up 4.8 YPC (5th highest). Also, as noted above, they will be without star defensive tackle Chris Jones (C-19) and there is fear that more Chiefs players may have been exposed. CMC could be in a sneaky strong spot here and could also carry single-digit ownership in GPPs on Sunday. For an elite cash game RB, pay down a couple of hundred bucks for Dalvin Cook (DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.3k) who will be in another strong spot against Detroit. Not much of a hot take there.

James Conner | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k | @ DAL | Cash & GPP

This is a pretty straightforward play: Pittsburgh, a 14 point road favorite, should be in prime position to get ahead early and just chew a bunch of clock off in the run game for the final 2 1/2-3 quarters. Dallas has the 29th ranked run defense (DVOA) and is giving up 5.1 YPC on the ground. Conner could have multi-touchdown upside in this game but, barring injury (knock on wood), his floor should be very strong against these depleted Cowboys.

Chase Edmonds | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.4k | vs. MIA | Cash & GPP

While he isn’t officially ruled out yet, it’s highly unlikely the Cardinals will have Kenyan Drake (ankle) in uniform on Sunday, which would open the door up for Edmonds to handle upwards of 20 touches, or more. Anyone who has caught more than one or two Cardinals games this season can tell you that Edmonds has clearly been the more efficient and explosive looking back. Drake has averaged just 4.3 YPC on 119 rush attempts and has caught just 7/10 targets for 29 yards (4.1 yard avg). Meanwhile, Edmonds has posted 6.1 YPC on 29 rush attempts and has been super effective in the passing game, catching 26/32 targets for 222 yards (8.5 yard avg). On top of all this, Miami ranks dead last in run defense efficiency and will constantly have to worry about Kyler Murray running the ball as well. Considering his receiving upside (Edmonds could legitimately catch 7 or 8 passes), I’m viewing Edmonds as a poor man’s Alvin Kamara on Sunday, barring Drake being a surprise active.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7k | vs. CAR | GPP Only

There’s no doubt that CEH and Le’Veon Bell are going to cannibalize each other in many games moving forward, but there will also be instances where one of these guys puts up some big fantasy numbers. CEH has still plays on 50% and 53% of snaps in the last two weeks, but in two blowout wins by a combined margin of 53 points, the Chiefs haven’t really needed to rely on their young starting RB. If the Panthers can keep this game relatively competitive, which I have a feeling the just might, then Edwards-Helaire may have consistent involvement throughout this game. The Panthers are also a great team to attack on the ground as they allow the 4th most FPPG to RBs and rank 26th in run defense efficiency.

David Johnson | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.8k | @ JAX | Cash & GPP

David Johnson’s 79.4% snap rate is second among NFL RBs behind only Zeke Elliot (80.4%) and the Jags are giving up the 5th most FPPG to opposing backs this season. Seems like a good recipe for success. DJ has at least 18 touches in four consecutive games and while he hasn’t exhibited a terrific ceiling yet this year, the floor has been solid and this game script likely favors the Houston running game.

Justin Jackson | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.9k | vs. LV | GPP Preferred

The Chargers have played three games since placing RB Austin Ekeler on IR with a serious hamstring injury. The snap rate and production between Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley have broken down as follows:

Week 5 @ NO:

Jackson - 59% snaps, 15 rushes for 71 yards, 6 tgt, 5 rec for 23 yards, 14.4 DKFP

Kelley - 35% snaps, 11 rushes for 29 yards, 1 tgt, 1 rec for 9 yards, 4.8 DKFP

Week 7 vs. JAX:

Jackson - 38% snaps, 5 rushes for 12 yards, 6 tgt, 5 rec for 43 yards, 10.5 DKFP

Kelley - 47% snaps, 12 rushes for 29 yards, 5 tgt, 5 rec for 24 yards, 10.3 DKFP

Week 8 @ DEN:

Jackson - 47% snaps, 17 rushes for 89 yards, 5 tgt, 3 rec for 53 yards, 17.2 DKFP

Kelley - 24% snaps, 7 rushes for 32 yards, 1 tgt, 1 rec for -7 yards, 3.5 DKFP

Jackson has clearly been the more effective option in the ‘Ekeler role’. The Raiders rank 31st in run defense efficiency and are giving up the 6th most FPPG to RBs. If you’re paying down at RB, Jackson stands out as a worthwhile guy to punt.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Stefon Diggs | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.6k | vs. SEA | Cash & GPP

Diggs holds an elite 30.4% target share this season and is tied for the slate lead with 11.0 targets/gm over the last four weeks. He’ll draw the extremely great match-up with the Seahawks secondary that has allowed, by far, the most FPPG to WRs. Diggs has had a really strong floor all season, but this has all the makings of a ceiling game, especially if Buffalo is playing from behind.

Keenan Allen | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. LV | Cash & GPP

If you take away the week five game against New Orleans (when Allen was sidelined with back spasms after catching a TD), Allen has seen an astronomical 13.8 targets/gm in his previous four games. That is good for a monster 36.5% target share. Allen is utilized all over the Chargers formation, but the majority of his routes should be run out of the slot. Vegas CB Lamarcus Joyner (96% slot coverage) represents a positive match-up for Allen. Until proven otherwise, Allen has one of the best floors at the position week in and week out.

Tyler Lockett | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.4k | @ BUF | GPP Preferred

On the opposite side of the ball, we can usually assume that either DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett will have a great game… perhaps both will. However, even though he has proven on a near-weekly basis to be an absolute freak of nature, DK Metcalf will likely draw shadow coverage from one of the league’s best CBs in Tre’Davious White. Meanwhile, Lockett, who aligns in the slot on 59% of his routes, will get a plus match-up against Bills slot corner Taron Johnson. Buffalo has allowed the 11th most FPPG to slot WRs this season and that is after mostly playing against teams that don’t have a QB nearly as good as Russell Wilson.

Brandon Cooks | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.1k | @ JAX | GPP Preferred

Cooks is a borderline cash viable play for me, and he may end up in my cash lineup by Sunday, but for now, I’ll approach with intentions of just keeping him in my GPP pool. He has seen 30 targets in the last three games (which also coincides with the departure of Bill O’Brien and progress of Deshaun Watson), which represents a 27.3% target share in that span. Jacksonville was of course the defense that allowed Cooks to have his 2020 breakout game when he caught 8-of-12 targets for 161 yards and a TD. Obviously, we aren’t expecting a repeat performance but someone with potential for 8-10 targets at these prices going against a bad pass defense… what’s not to like?!

Diontae Johnson | DK: $5k, FD: $6k | @ DAL | GPP Preferred

Johnson has posted a couple of terrific stat lines this season but he just hasn’t been able to stay healthy. I’m cherry-picking a bit around his games where he experienced an injury, but in weeks one, two, and seven, Johnson has 38 targets (31.8% target share) with 23 catches for 229 yards and 3 TDs. JuJu Smith-Schuster and rookie Chase Claypool will compete with Johnson for targets in this game against a bad Dallas defense, but Johnson’s upside is great but the constant injuries have been a real concern.

Darnell Mooney | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.5k | @ TEN | Cash & GPP

I am hesitant to consider Mooney a cash-viable play, but I really do like his chances to pay off these low salaries on Sunday. There is no question that WR Allen Robinson is the target hog in this offense, but he will be dealing with tough shadow coverage from Malcolm Butler. Mooney should see plenty of routes against CB Tye Smith, who has been targeted on 30% of routes ran against him. While Butler has been solid in shadow coverage lately, the Titans in general have been torched by opposing WRs and have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to the position. While putting any faith in Nick Foles is a tough pill to swallow, I believe Mooney should see anywhere from 6 to 10 targets head his way and his 4.38 speed could turn any catch into a long gain, or even a score.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Mark Andrews | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.6k | @ IND | GPP Preferred

The safest spend-up options are clearly Kelce and Waller but if you want to gain a little leverage, you might want to consider a discounted Andrews in GPPs. Now, the clear risk with Andrews is the match-up, as the Colts have allowed the least FPPG to TEs this season. But few TEs are as involved in their team’s offense as Andrews is. While he has had a couple of down games heading into this week, Andrews still draws a respectable 20.6% target share and sees nearly a fourth of the total air yards in the Baltimore offense. Lamar Jackson’s passing prowess has disappointed much of this season but once the Ravens get into scoring territory, Andrews is a go-to redzone option.

Noah Fant | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.8k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP

Falcons allow THE most FPPG to TEs and Fant is averaging a solid 7.2 targets/gm. It’s hard to really trust anyone on this Broncos offense right now but the match-up is too good to ignore and QB Drew Lock has thrown 40+ times in B2B weeks.

Jack Doyle | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.9k | vs. BAL | DraftKings GPP Preferred

FanDuel is pretty stingy with their TE pricing so I often only recommend punting at the position on DK. Doyle has found the endzone in B2B weeks while playing around 60% of snaps both weeks. Baltimore also isn’t all that great against TEs, giving up the 13th most FPPG to the position. You’re kinda relying on a TD here, as you are with most tight ends, but one score is pretty much instant value for $2,900 on DK.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Pittsburgh Steelers DST | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5k | @ DAL

Yeah, this is the obvious and most expensive option on the board but the Steelers have arguably the best defense going against a shell of a Dallas Cowboys offense who is slated to start their fourth and fifth string quarterbacks. Dallas QB Pro Bowl hopefuls Garrett Gilbert and Cooper Rush are set to split work against this vaunted Pitt D. No Jets on the main slate, so we go with an offense that is now nearly as bad.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Minnesota Vikings DST | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. DET

Matthew Stafford may end up playing this game, in which case then you may should look elsewhere for a cheap DST. If Stafford is out then I see nothing wrong with dropping a punt on this Vikes defense facing a Chase Daniel-led Lions team who is also set to be without their best receiver (Golladay).

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