By: @Ryan_Humphries

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It’s time for Wild Card Weekend, folks! The newsletters this week will be centered around the “featured” slates which provide the best contests. So, in this newsletter, we’ll be digging into the two-game Saturday slate, tomorrow we’ll be dishing out a newsletter covering the three-game Sunday slate, then finally we’ll wrap Wild Card Weekend up with a ‘Primetime Preview” of the Monday Night Football game between the Rams and Cardinals. Be on the look out for those over the next couple days! For now, let’s dig into Saturday’s action!

Quick Hit on Two-Game Slate Strategy: When building lineups, I’d recommend approaching it similar to a single game showdown slate, specifically when it comes to not using all of your allotted salary. On a small slate, the easiest way to have a shot at rolling out a unique lineup in GPPs is to leave some salary on the table (a few hundred bucks, at least). It’s certainly possible that the perfect lineup for Saturday's slate will utilize 98+% of the total salary -- however, it’s just not the most likely outcome based on historical data.

🥶 Weather Note 🥶 There will be single digit temperatures in Buffalo on Saturday night. Plenty of high-scoring games can develop in colder temperatures, but when the weather is *that* frigid, offenses should probably receive a slight downgrade.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | vs. LV

Considering the bone chilling cold and the tough match-up against New England, you could make a convincing case that Joe Burrow should be priced above Josh Allen ($7.9k/$8.8k) on this two-game slate. Burrow had sat out last week as he had no incentive to play in Cincinnati’s week 18 regular season finale, but prior to that he was breaking records with how lethal he was slinging the football. Burrow has been lights out at home recently as well; in his last three home games, Burrow has completed 77.3% of his passes for 1,319 yards (439.7 YPG) and 10 touchdowns against zero interceptions. The Raiders have actually had somewhat of a sneaky good pass defense this season, which has only allowed 6.3 yards per pass attempt (6th best in NFL). However they check in at 21st in pass DVOA, so some regression is due, and they will have their hands full containing the uber-talented young WR trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. The Bengals also lead this slate with a 27.0 implied team total.

Derek Carr, LV | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.8k | @ CIN

Obviously there are only two QB options available if you’re spending down. Bill Belichick may not let Mac Jones throw it more than 20 times in that frigid weather environment and he’s up against a stout Bills pass defense anyhow. I’d expect Burrow to comfortably be the highest-owned QB on the slate, but there is some appeal for Derek Carr even though he hasn’t scored above 15.34 FP in a game since week 12. The Bengals pass defense has not been all too impressive this season as they check in at 24th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 3rd most pass completions per game (24.6). Derek Carr opened up the season with three straight games passing for 380+ yards and multiple touchdowns, so we know his upside is in the 25+ FP territory. On top of that, Carr got his most talented receiving weapon back last week with Darren Waller returning from a knee injury after missing five games since week 12 (which coincides with Carr’s last 20+ FP performance). Waller came away with just two catches for 22 yards in week 18 but he clearly had some rust to shake off and Carr still threw his way nine times. The Bengals have been terrible against tight ends this season and with the emergence of the crafty Hunter Renfrow combined with a potential pass-heavy game script (Raiders 5.5 point underdogs), Carr has plenty of room to return value at his lower-end salaries.

Running Backs to Consider

Joe Mixon, CIN | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.5k | vs. LV

You’re paying the premium here and there are perhaps some conditioning concerns to be had with Mixon after he tested positive for COVID last Wednesday. However even with the missed game in week 18 (likely would have sat out anyway), Mixon is 3rd in the NFL with 292 carries. He's a certified workhorse and will get guaranteed touches, especially when the stakes are as large as they are in this game. He also commanded 14 total targets in his previous two games -- which is no surprise considering how often, and how well, Burrow has been slinging it. It’s a great match-up as well as the Raiders have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to RBs this season. Mixon handled 30 carries and went for 123 yards and two scores against the Raiders back in week 11.

Damien Harris, NE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.5k | @ BUF

The Bills have been a top 10 run defense this season but Damien Harris could not care less, apparently. In two games against Buffalo, Harris has taken 28 carries for 214 yards (7.6 YPC) and four touchdowns. The extremely cold conditions in Buffalo on Saturday night could lead to a more run-heavy approach as well. Harris hasn’t proven to be much of a pass catcher, though he did see a season high four targets in last week’s game. Those sort of targets aren’t necessarily likely to continue for Harris and he has just two games with more than 20 carries this season, so he’ll be a bit more touchdown-dependent than some other running backs on the slate. The good news is that Harris has found the endzone in each of his last five games, scoring eight TDs in total during that stretch.

Devin Singletary, BUF | DK: $5.8k, FD: $5.7k | vs. NE

The previously unreliable Buffalo backfield flipped the switch down the final stretch of the regular season when they began utilizing Singletary in a true featured role. Singletary’s 79% snap% over the final four weeks ranked 2nd among all NFL RBs and he has averaged 21 touches/gm in that span. The Patriots run defense has also been trending downward in a big way recently. They’ve allowed the 5th most FPPG to opposing RBs in their last four games. Just as it was mentioned above with Damien Harris, the extremely cold temps in this game could result in a more run-heavy offensive approach -- clearly that would bode well for Singletary but he will be in line for excellent volume regardless.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Hunter Renfrow, LV | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k | @ CIN

What a weapon Renfrow turned into during the second half of the season. He was a major reason why Las Vegas was able to rally with a 5-2 finish over their last seven games and sneak into the playoffs. Renfrow has done some of his best work in the redzone where he has commanded an elite level 31.3% target% with a 78.3% redzone catch%. Renfrow runs primarily out of the slot and draws an excellent match-up against a Cincinnati defense that has allowed the most FPPG to opposing slot receivers over the last eight weeks (and 3rd most overall on the season).

Tee Higgins, CIN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.9k | vs. LV

All three of the Bengals primary receivers (Chase, Higgins, Boyd) deserve some level of consideration on this slate, especially if you’re looking to run some stacks/double-stacks with Joe Burrow. Higgins provides more upside than Boyd while also being considerably cheaper than Chase, so that’s essentially the two main reasons why he gets the nod as the highlighted Cincy receiver here. Higgins has commanded solid volume this year with 7.9 targets/gm and the Raiders secondary is more beatable on the perimeter, where Higgins has ran 80% of his routes.

Zay Jones, LV | DK: $4k, FD: $5.3k | @ CIN

Jones has carved out a meaningful role in the Raiders passing game while accounting for at least seven targets and five catches in five consecutive games to close out the regular season. Over the last month, he has averaged 8.8 targets/gm. While his role is less guaranteed with Waller back in the mix, the chemistry Jones has built with Derek Carr and the trust he has earned from the coaching staff down the stretch won’t just all of a sudden disappear.

Gabriel Davis, BUF | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.2k | vs. NE

The likely return of Emmanuel Sanders could sandbag Davis’ recent increased role, but we also can’t ignore the fact that Davis led all Bills WRs with a 90% snap% last week and was targeted a whopping 14 times. Davis has a high 13.3-yard aDOT and can return value even if he and Josh Allen connect on just a couple of those deeper passes. Expect the primary defensive attention from the Patriots to go towards the talented Stefon Diggs ($7.5k/$8k) who gave New England trouble a couple weeks ago, catching seven passes for 85 yards and a TD.

Tight Ends to Consider

Darren Waller, LV | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.3k | @ CIN

Waller comes at a decent discount on this small slate due to his extended five-game absence between weeks 13-17 combined with an unremarkable week 18 return where he caught only 2-of-9 targets for 22 yards. The nine targets are still a big encouragement and another week removed from that knee injury can only be considered a ‘plus.’ Also, as mentioned already in this newsletter, the Bengals have been burned by opposing tight ends all season. On the year, they’ve allowed the 6th most FPPG to TEs and over their last four games they have been even worse, allowing the 2nd most FPPG to the position. As you can below, it’s guys like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle who have been responsible for much of the damage done by tight ends against Cincy’s defense lately. But, even though it’s been a disappointing year for Waller, he is absolutely deserving to be in that same tier of elite tight ends when he’s healthy.

CJ Uzomah, CIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.2k | vs. LV

The tight end options aren’t great once you get past Waller, but Uzomah is the clear-cut preferred value option. He’s almost always good for about 4-to-7 targets each game and has posted a strong 77.8% catch% this season, so Burrow should have plenty of confidence when throwing it in Uzomah’s direction.

Defenses to Consider

Safe: Buffalo Bills | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. NE

Pivot: New England Patriots | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.8k | @ BUF

Touchdown Call 🏈

Tee Higgins, CIN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.9k | vs. LV

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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