By: @Ryan_Humphries

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After a fun kickoff to Wild Card Weekend on Saturday (well... at least the first game was fun), it’s time to shift our focus towards the three match-ups taking place on Sunday! It’s certainly possible we see a couple of lopsided games on this slate with Tampa Bay coming in as eight-point favorites over Philly and Kansas City checking as the largest favorites in Wild Card history (-13 points) against Pittsburgh. But after the kind of NFL season we’ve seen this year, one with perhaps more parity and surprise upsets than any other season in recent memory, anything could happen on Sunday. It's called Wild Card Weekend for a reason, after all. The San Francisco/Dallas game does look like it could be the most entertaining match-up of the day, possibly of the weekend (including Monday), and there is quite a bit of back-and-forth shootout potential to be had there. This slate should be a blast and I’m a MUCH bigger fan of a three-game NFL DFS slate versus a two-gamer. There are just so many more angles and ways to attack a slate when you have at least six teams in play. Let's get it!

💨Weather Note💨 While the rain is expected to clear ahead of the PHI/TB game, there is a chance some precipitation may still be in the area at kickoff. Also, sustained winds will be in the 15-20 mph range with gusts upwards of 30 mph. The deep passing game and kicking game both receive a bit of a downgrade as a result.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Dak Prescott, DAL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k | vs. SF

We clearly have some elite QBs to choose from at the top of pricing with Patrick Mahomes ($7.3k/$8.7k) and Tom Brady ($7.2k/$8.4k) leading the way. But it’s also pretty apparent that Prescott can provide a similar upside to those two guys but at a cheaper salary. In the last three games, Prescott has completed 70.2% of his passes for 851 yards with 12 TDs against zero INTs. Considering two of those games were blowouts where the Cowboys didn’t necessarily have to play aggressive for all four quarters, Prescott’s numbers could have honestly been better by a decent margin. The 49ers defense has been decent but they struggle more on the road and rank in the middle of the pack at 16th in pass DVOA. 

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.7k | @ TB

Given the Bucs stout defensive front which allowed the 3rd fewest rushing YPG this season, the steady trend all year was to try to beat them through the air. As a result, Tampa Bay allowed the most completions this season (443 total, 26.1 comp/gm) and surrendered the 7th most FPPG to opposing QBs. Jalen Hurts isn’t a QB who slings it all over the place, averaging just 28.8 pass attempts per game. However, Hurts can do some damage to his legs as we all know. While Tampa Bay may be a tough run defense, that’s typically comes at the expense of opposing running backs. Mobile QBs have actually had considerable success against the Bucs, who have allowed the 4th most rushing yards to QBs this season. When Hurts went up against Tampa Bay back in week six, he completed just 12-of-26 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown (plus one INT) but he added 10 carries for 44 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. It’d be a stretch to expect multiple rushing scores from him again, but I’d say we could look for him to rack up similar rushing yardage, perhaps even a bit more, while also finding more success in the passing game against Tampa Bay this time around. 

Running Backs to Consider

Najee Harris, PIT | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k | @ KC

Harris is the most expensive RB on the slate playing for the team with the lowest implied point total (16.5 points) who also happen to be playing on the road as the largest underdogs in NFL Wild Card history. By all predictive game flow factors which can often point towards a certain RB being a strong play, Najee Harris certainly doesn’t seem to be one of ‘em. However, Harris simply never really comes off the field. His 980 snaps played this season were 170 more than the next closest RB (Zeke Elliot, 810). While Pittsburgh got smashed 10-36 against Kansas City just three weeks ago, Harris still managed to rack up 110 total yards on 19 carries and five receptions -- good for 16.0 DKFP/13.5 FDFP. If Harris posts similar numbers on Sunday night but happens to also add a touchdown into the mix, he’s likely going to be an optimal play on this slate. The Chiefs rank 20th in run DVOA and allowed the 4th most receptions to RBs this season.

Darrel Williams, KC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.6k | vs. PIT

So, all of the negative game flow trends mentioned with Najee Harris above can basically be flipped for Darrel Williams. He checks in with more affordable DFS salaries, plays for the team with the highest implied point total on the slate (29.5 points), and takes the field at home as massive 13-point favorites. Williams will also get to run up against a Steelers run defense which checks in at 27th in run DVOA and has allowed the 8th most FPPG to RBs. Williams gets a very obvious usage boost due to Clyde Edwards-Healire missing this game due to a shoulder injury, however, Williams may not be 100% healthy himself as he is listed as questionable ahead of this game with a toe injury.

Williams is fully expected to play, but it may not be a bad idea to consider someone like Derrick Gore ($4k/$5.4k) as a GPP flier as he should see some decent work out of the Chiefs backfield as well, especially if this turns into a rout as the spread suggests. In a blowout victory against the Steelers in week 16, Gore ran 12 times for 43 yards and caught 3-of-3 targets for 61 yards. Darrel Williams is far and away from the “safer” play, but Gore is a big play threat just waiting to happen.

Giovanni Bernard, TB | DK: $4k, FD: $4.7k | vs. PHI

This is clearly another GPP flier as Bernard has not played since week 14 due to an MCL sprain but the Bucs activated him ahead of their playoff game against the Eagles. Tampa Bay had hoped that they could get Leonard Fournette (hamstring) off the IR in time for this game, but that won’t be the case. On top of that, Ronald Jones II (ankle) has already been ruled out as well. The most likely candidate to lead the Bucs backfield in touches is Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($4.5k/$5.4k), and I actually think he makes for a solid DFS target at his price points. But, assuming he’s close to 100%, Bernard may assume his role as the go-to guy on passing downs. That bodes well against an Eagles defense that has allowed the most FPPG to RBs over their last four games, including 7.3 receptions/gm to the position. With near-20 mph wind speeds expected at game time, there could be additional check downs to be had for the running backs as well.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.7k | @ DAL

How awesome has Deebo been this season? As a South Carolina Gamecock fan, I have to admit, I do have a bit of bias when it comes to my Deebo fandom… but I don’t believe anyone would second guess me recommending him as a prime pay-up option in DFS on Sunday. You have to love how the 49ers are using Deebo as both a receiver and a runner. In his last four games, he’s averaging 7.0 targets, 5.0 receptions, 90.3 rec. yards, 6.5 carries, and 31.3 rush yards (and scored three TDs in that span). The man is a problem for any defense he goes up against and this domed match-up will feature the best chance on the slate at providing a back-and-forth high-scoring environment. The Cowboys also allowed the 7th most receiving yards to WRs this season.

Diontae Johnson, PIT | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.2k | @ KC

Johnson is the most likely candidate on this slate to record double-digit targets, as he has done in 12-of-16 games plays this year. Even when the Steelers aren’t putting up points, Johnson is there to provide a super secure fantasy floor thanks to his elite 27.3% TGT% and the Chiefs allowed the 3rd most FPPG to WRs over their final four games, so the match-up isn’t exactly a scary one either.

Cedrick Wilson, DAL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $6k | vs. SF

With Michael Gallup suffering a torn ACL in week 17, Cedrick Wilson is the primary beneficiary when it comes to seeing a major uptick in snaps and targets. He is also bringing some major chemistry with Dak Prescott into this week. In the last two games, Wilson has caught 11-of-12 targets for 154 yards and three touchdowns! Expect Wilson to work primarily out of the slot and be on the field anywhere from 60-to-90% of snaps on Sunday.

Tyler Johnson, TB | DK: $4k, FD: $5.1k | vs. PHI

The absences of Chris Godwin (ACL) and Antonio Brown (ankle/insanity) will open up a major opportunity for Tyler Johnson who actually led all Bucs WRs in week 18 with an 80% snap%. On a day where ~20 mph winds in Tampa Bay could affect some deeper passes, Tyler Johnson, with his shorter 7.9-yard aDOT, could lead to more high-percentage targets from Tom Brady. At rock bottom DFS salaries, Johnson won’t need a monster performance to return value on this slate.

Tight Ends to Consider

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. PIT

You have some of the absolute best tight ends in the league available to choose from on this slate. I imagine most people will feel safest with Rob Gronkowski ($6.4k/$7.4k) against the Eagles (most FPPG allowed to TEs this season) while Kelce and George Kittle ($5.8k/$6.5k) being the two “pivots,” if you even want to call them that -- they’re not exactly scrubs after all. This really feels like a slate where playing two tight ends in the same lineup is a super viable strategy (and, hey, it turned out to be the optimal strategy on Saturday’s two-game slate with CJ Uzomah and Dawson Knox both making the perfect lineup). By his standards, Kelce has had a bit of a disappointing season but I believe it’d be crazy not to at least consider him on this slate seeing as how the Chiefs possess nearly a 30-point implied team total. The Steelers defense has also regressed against tight ends in recent weeks, allowing the 9th most FPPG to the position over their last four games (and remember, Kelce didn’t suit up against Pittsburgh when these teams played each other in week 16).

Dallas Goedert, PHI | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.9k | @ TB

While I was extremely close to highlighting Dalton Schultz ($5k/$6.2k) as the second tight end in this section, Goedert feels like a better potential value, especially on DraftKings. Many Eagles starters sat out their week 18 game but in the four previous games where Goedert has suited up, Geodert’s 26 targets have represented a team-leading 26% target share. He caught 21 of those 26 targets (80.7% catch%) and reeled off 339 yards (16.1 YPC) and a pair of TDs. If you’re not paying up for one of the superstar tight ends, Goedert makes plenty of sense as a pay-down option (or as a TE2 in double tight end lineups).

Defenses to Consider

Safe: Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.8k | vs. PIT

Pivot: San Francisco 49ers | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.7k | @ DAL

Touchdown Call 🏈

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.7k | @ DAL

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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