Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

The regular season is in the rear view mirror but the NFL DFS grind soldiers on. It’s Wild Card Weekend which means we’ll have the AFC & NFC’s No. 3 through No. 6 seeds all competing to move onto the Divisional Round. As usual, these games are split up with two games apiece on Saturday and Sunday. We have some great football ahead of us so let’s jump right into the thick of things!

Quarterbacks to Target

Drew Brees | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. MIN

It’s playoff season which is typically not the time to bet against Drew Brees. In 15 career playoff games, Brees has averaged 317 passing YPG and 2.2 TDs/gm. We also all know how dangerous he can be at home as well. In six home games this season, Brees is completing a whopping 77.5% of his passes for 332.8 YPG and nearly three TDs/gm -- good for 27.7 DraftKings FPPG. Minnesota has allowed the 9th fewest FPPG to QBs this year but Brees is often match-up proof and you know the Superdome will be rocking this Sunday. The Saints also lead all eight teams this weekend with a 28.3 implied point total.

Carson Wentz | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.9k | vs. SEA

Philadelphia’s offensive weapons have been dropping like flies this season, especially down the stretch, but that hasn’t stopped Wentz from posting strong fantasy numbers over the last handful of weeks. The Eagles are relying heavily on him slinging it and he has at least 39 pass attempts in eight straight games while teams have passed, on average, 38.4 times per game against Seattle in the last nine games (28th most). The Seahawks defense has also been struggling in general down the stretch after allowing an average of 27.0 PPG to opposing teams in their last five games. This game has the smallest spread of the weekend (SEA -1.5) so this could quite easily turn into a back-and-forth affair out in Philadelphia. If you’re not spending all the way up at QB, Wentz feels like a very solid option this weekend.

Running Backs to Target

Dalvin Cook | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8k | @ NO

Is Cook the safest running back choice this week? Probably not. But I do believe he’s a solid leverage option to roll out on this slate. Cook missed the final two games of the Vikings’ regular season with a shoulder injury but it seems like he is now set to be at full strength. Many believe he could have played in weeks 16 & 17, specifically Dr. David Chao who was a former NFL team doctor for 17+ years (@ProFootballDoc on Twitter). While this certainly won’t be an easy match-up for the Vikings run game (Saints 6th fewest FPPG allowed to RBs), Cook has carried Minnesota through several tough games this season and, if anything, he could be the beneficiary of a ton of dump-off passes. The Saints have allowed nearly six receptions per game to running backs after all. So Cook will be an intriguing pivot away from Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara, who will likely be the two highest owned RBs on this slate.

Devin Singletary | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | @ HOU

Singletary has been given very solid volume most weeks since taking over as Buffalo’s No. 1 RB back in week nine. He’s proven himself to be highly efficient, averaging 5.1 YPC -- the 3rd best mark in the NFL. His 60 tackles evaded also ranks 18th in the league, despite only having the 29th most carries (151). What has been limiting his fantasy potential quite a bit is the lack of touchdowns. He has just two rushing scores on the season while his quarterback, Josh Allen, has nine. Perhaps the positive touchdown regression can fall in his favor this week considering the Texans allow the 6th most FPPG to RBs as well as a 71.4% redzone touchdown rate (worst in the NFL).

Travis Homer | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.1k | @ PHI

I’ll be honest, I don’t think I ever heard this guy’s name prior to last Sunday night. While all the media attention fell on the return of Marshawn Lynch, Homer easily looked like the much more effective back against the 49ers. Homer gained 62 yards on 10 carries (6.2 YPC) while catching all five of his targets for 30 yards. Lynch found his way into the endzone but managed just 34 yards on 12 carries (2.8 YPC) while not being targeted at all. It definitely looked like there was some rust that needed to be kicked off of Beastmode’s tires and I’m not sure he knocked it all off on just those twelve touches. The snap share broke down in Homer’s favor as well, as he handled 67% of offensive snaps; Lynch 31%. The Eagles are another tough run defense which has allowed the 7th fewest FPPG to RBs this year. But if Seattle needs someone to rely on out of the backfield, Homer may very well be their best option.

Sony Michel | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6.7k | vs. TEN

Michel is much more appealing at his $4,600 price tag on DraftKings and while I don’t love the play, he has been given excellent volume lately with 18+ carries in all of the Pats previous three games. For that reason alone, I think he needs to be on the radar for DFS players this week (though, again, probably more so on DraftKings). The weather in this game is also supposed to be ugly (low 40s with 70% chance of rain) which could keep both offenses focused on the ground game. Michel has to split backfield opportunities with James White and Rex Burkhead but if he’s going to see nearly 20 touches again, the yardage should be there -- just needs to fall into the endzone to really hit strong value.

Wide Receivers to Target

Michael Thomas | DK: $9.3k, FD: $8.9k | vs. MIN

Thomas may very well be the chalk of the slate, but are you really willing to risk fading him? His record breaking 149 catches this season were 33 more than the NFL second-leading receptions leader (Christian McCaffrey, 116). That’s the largest reception margin in the NFL between the No.1 and No. 2 receivers since 1942! Thomas runs about 70% of his routes on the perimeter and Minnesota has given up the 2nd most FPPG to perimeter receivers this year. Thomas is also averaging an absurd 30.7 DK FPPG at home this season. Unless the Saints get out to an absurd lead early on, you can bet that Thomas is going to see, at minimum, ten targets which will be thrown to him by the NFL’s all time touchdown and completion percentage leader. Really at this point I don’t think I need to sell the thought of playing Michael Thomas in DFS too hard. You know how good the guy has been this season.

John Brown | DK: $6k, FD: $6.5k | @ HOU

Cole Beasley has been outshining Brown in the box scores lately but Brown is still the Bills best playmaker at the wide receiver position and should carry plenty of consideration this week. After garnering several tough secondary match-ups in recent weeks, this should be one of the better WR/CB draws that Brown and the Buffalo passing game has seen in quite some time. Houston has given up the 12th most FPPG this season and Brown should be targeted on multiple deep passes in this game.

Will Fuller V | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.6k | vs. BUF

Fuller is one of the ultimate boom/bust receivers in the league, so I can never advocate for him as a safe play. He’s also listed as a game time decision due to yet another injury. But fortunately this is the first game of the weekend, so if you do put Fuller in any lineups, you should have plenty of time to swap someone else is if he is ruled out. Buffalo is not really a secondary you want to pick on too often (6th fewest FPPG allowed to WRs) but with most of the attention going towards stopping DeAndre Hopkins, Fuller is always a candidate to catch a deep ball or two. Fuller’s 14.2 yard aDOT is the 9th highest among WRs with at least 70 targets this season. Assuming he suits up, he is a high risk/high reward type play. But you can’t dispute that these are the sort of guys who make or break slates at single digit ownership.

Corey Davis | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.4k | @ NE

I would expect for top cornerback Stephon Gilmore to possibly shadow rookie sensation AJ Brown this week, which could present some extra potential upside for Corey Davis as the Titans secondary option. No. 2 WRs have found success against the Patriots' stingy defense in recent weeks and while the weather may be ugly and playing in Foxborough is never easy, someone is going to need to catch passes for Tennessee. If the NFL gave out an MVP award for the second half of the regular season, Ryan Tannehill would be a legitimate front runner. He has proven to be highly effective while completing over 70% of his passes this year. So if Davis sees some decent volume, don’t be surprised if he comes through as one of the better WR value plays this weekend.

Tight Ends to Target

Dallas Goedert | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.7k | vs. SEA

It seems like it’ll be a long shot that Zach Ertz gets cleared for contact in time to suit up for Sunday’s game which would leave Dallas Goedert as the potential No. 1 target in the Philadelphia passing game. With Ertz sidelined in week 17 Goedert saw ten targets head his way. Chances are we could put his potential target count for this week in a similar ballpark. Only the Arizona Cardinals have given up more FPPG to TEs than the Seahawks this season, so the match-up is nice and juicy. Assuming Ertz is out, I would also keep Philly tight end Joshua Perkins (DK: $2.9k, FD: $5.5k) in mind as well, though mostly as a DraftKings play. Perkins played on 78% of snaps last week and caught 4-of-6 targets for 50 yards and a touchdown and could see similar volume this week.

Jonnu Smith | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.8k | @ NE

I really think this is just a good slate to eat the chalk at tight end and just roll with either Goedert or Jared Cook (or perhaps Perkins on DK) but the Titans have been pretty reliant on Jonnu Smith to produce big plays for them this season. Smith was pretty much nonexistent in the box score against Houston last week, receiving zero targets (with one carry for seven yards), but in a game where Tennessee controlled things with Derrick Henry, who ran for 211 yards and three touchdowns on 32 carries, that isn’t much of a shocker. Smith still played on 81% of snaps. The Titans will most definitely look to rely more on him this week.

Fun fact: For some reason Taysom Hill is listed as a tight end on FanDuel for $5,200. If you really want to get weird, I don’t think it would be the craziest idea to throw him out in a GPP lineup or two. He has scored a touchdown in three of the last five games.

Defensive Breakdown

New England Patriots | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. TEN

It’s a bit of a crapshoot when figuring out who to roll with at DST this week but the Patriots still technically have the best scoring defense in the league and this is playoff football time in Foxborough which is rarely a fun time for the opposition. Also, as previously mentioned, the weather here isn’t forecasted to be all that great, which usually is going to benefit defenses more often than not.

Houston Texans | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. BUF

Well… JJ Watt is supposed to make his return, so that’s exciting. Buffalo has also allowed opposing DSTs to score 7.4 FPPG this season, which admittedly isn’t a lot, but it is the second highest mark on the slate. Ultimately, this is the playoffs so we don’t have bad offenses to pick on anymore. Really any defense on this slate could pop off. So if you’re rolling out multiple lineups, I would just recommend spreading out DST exposure across the board if possible.

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🔥 SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play 🔥

I’ll get a little creative with the SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play this week and roll with Joshua Perkins (2.0x multiplier). Of course, this is assuming that Zach Ertz gets ruled out (pretty likely). Without Ertz last week, Perkins played 78% of snaps and posted a 4/50/1 statline. The 2.0x multiplier is going to be hard to pass up if he is going to maintain a similar role against Seattle who gives up the 2nd most FPPG to the tight end position.

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