Top NFL DFS Plays | Wild-Card Weekend Edition! (Sunday Slate)

January 09, 2021

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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The start of the NFL postseason is now just hours away! Today's newsletter will be focused on highlighting some potential plays for the Sunday three-game slate. If you’re looking to play the Saturday or full weekend slate, feel free to refer back to yesterday’s NFL newsletter linked below which has some plays to consider for tomorrow's match-ups. Best of luck to you guys this weekend. Here’s to some entertaining games!

Quarterbacks to Consider

Lamar Jackson | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.3k | @ TEN | Cash & GPP

The last time Lamar Jackson ran into the Titans in the playoffs (2019-20 divisional round), he racked up 365 passing yards and 143 rushing yards on his way to a 36 DKFP performance. However, Baltimore only scored 12 points in that game so, needless to say, Lamar’s day could have been much bigger. The Ravens lead the slate with a 29.0 implied point total and even though the Titans held Jackson in check back in week 11 (17.54 FP) of this season, it’ll be difficult to repeat that success on Sunday. Tennessee has simply been a very erratic defense and has allowed the 5th most FPPG to QBs on the year. The Ravens were on fire down the stretch, averaging 37.2 PPG in their last five games and the Titans have enough firepower of their own to make this a high-scoring back-and-forth shootout.

Ben Roethlisberger | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CLE | Cash & GPP

Pittsburgh was dead last in the league this season in rushing average (3.6 YPA) and rushing YPG (84.4). We should expect the Steelers to put the vast majority of their faith in the arm of Ben Roethlisberger, who is attempting over 40 passes per game this year and has one of the better trios of wide receivers in the league at his disposal. As many are aware, Cleveland is also dealing with a considerable amount of COVID issues involving a number of players and coaches (including HC Kevin Stefanski). Today (Friday) was their first chance to practice all week so, from a competitive standpoint, they’re at a noticeable disadvantage heading into this Wild-Card match-up. I’m not expecting the Browns to accept defeat and roll over in this game or anything, but this would appear to be a good spot to deploy Roethlisberger in DFS if you’re not paying up for Lamar or Tannehill. Cleveland allowed the 8th most FPPG to QBs this season and that was without being shorthanded most weeks like they will be on Sunday.

Running Backs to Consider

Derrick Henry | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.2k | vs. BAL | Cash & GPP

After the season he has had, no one needs much convincing as to why you should consider Henry for your lineups. Yes, he’s the most expensive player on the slate but if the Titans weren’t hesitant to give Henry 30+ touches in regular season games, they definitely won’t avoid feeding him the rock in a playoff scenario. Baltimore also isn’t necessarily a great run defense. They’ve struggled over the latter half of the season with allowing a high amount of RB yards after contact which is where Henry can really punish defenses through huge gains off of chunk yardage. Henry’s redzone usage is also unmatched on this slate, even in comparison to someone like Alvin Kamara (who is still questionable to play due to C19, and also loses RZ work to Taysom Hill). Henry is close to a must have play for me on this slate.

David Montgomery | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4 | @ NO | GPP Preferred

This Saints run defense is no joke (fewest FPPG allowed to RBs) but Montgomery is a volume-driven play against anyone at this point. He should see somewhere in the range of 25 total touches and even if he struggles with rushing efficiency, he could make an impact in a prominent receiving game. Montgomery enters off of a season-high nine targets (and nine catches) in week 17. Despite their overall regular season success, the Saints run defense has been mediocre as of late. RBs are averaging 5.23 YPC against the Saints over their last four games.

JK Dobbins | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.8k | @ TEN | Cash & GPP

Baltimore runs a cluttered backfield by committee which includes the quarterback within the equation, so Dobbins will probably only see around a dozen touches which puts his fantasy ceiling in question. However, his redzone role has been consistent lately. He is riding a six-game touchdown streak and found the endzone twice in week 17. The Titans are allowing 5.9 YPC to RBs over the last month so 12-15 touches could easily be enough for Dobbins to end up as an optimal DFS play on Sunday.

James Conner | DK: $5k, FD: $6.2k | vs. CLE | GPP Preferred

You can’t put a ton of trust in the Steelers virtually non-existent run game and Conner has obviously struggled with injuries and volume issues for the last half of the season. But he did rush for 101 yards and a score against the Browns back in week six -- though that was on 20 carries. It’s not overly likely he’ll get 20+ touches in this game but if he falls into the endzone and if his targets continue to trend up, maybe you can snag some value out of him at these salaries.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Michael Thomas | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP

If you think about it, Michael Thomas and Drew Brees have only played one complete game with one another this season. And that one game was the week nine 38-3 blowout win over Tampa Bay which didn’t really require New Orleans to keep their foot on the gas offensively. That was also Thomas’ first game back from a seven week injury absence and he only played about half the snaps -- there was no need to push him beyond that due to the score. SO… with that said, the stage is now set for the historically successful Brees to Thomas connection to finally get going this season. If Thomas sees anything close to his usual target volume with Brees at the helm, these DFS prices could make him a steal, especially if Alvin Kamara can’t suit up or sees his role limited a bit.

Diontae Johnson | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7k | vs. CLE | Cash & GPP

With the exception of one game this season (week 14), Diontae Johnson has garnered 10+ targets in every game played, aside from the weeks where injuries forced him out early (note: I’m not counting week 17 since Big Ben didn’t play). I’m not in the business of predicting injuries so we can just go ahead and assume Johnson and Roethlisberger will be healthy for the entirety of this game. As such, we should probably expect Johnson to see double-digit targets once again, which is exceptionally strong volume for a receiver. That is specially for players in this price range on DraftKings where he will be one of my favorite Fpt/$ plays of the slate.

Marquise Brown | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.3k | @ TEN | Cash & GPP

Over Baltimore’s final six games, Hollywood Brown had an automatic ticket punched into the endzone nearly every week, finding paydirt six times in that span. The Ravens are obviously a very run oriented team, but when they did pass in that six week stretch, Brown accounted for a massive 34.8% target share as well as 41.7% of the team’s total air yards. If you gave this Titans secondary a blanket, they’d struggle to cover a bed with it. They’ve given up the 2nd most FPPG to WRs this year and Brown is as good of a bet as any receiver on this slate to find the endzone once again.

Corey Davis | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.4k | vs. BAL | GPP Preferred

Davis may be a tad boom or bust with Derrick Henry dominating things on the ground and AJ Brown typically being the preferred option through the air. But Davis has greatly helped this Titans offense at times this season and, as you can see by the match-up chart below, the Ravens have struggled against opposing WR2s in recent weeks.

Darnell Mooney | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.4k | @ NO | GPP Preferred

Mooney is dealing with an ankle injury he sustained in last Sunday’s regular season finale and may not suit up for this game. But, if he can go, Mooney has a six game streak of either scoring a touchdown or commanding 6+ targets. Really, he has met one or both of those criteria in every game but one since week seven. With the Saints likely to focus a ton of attention on stopping Allen Robinson, Mooney could be the primary beneficiary of softer coverage.

Tight Ends to Consider

Eric Ebron | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.5k | vs. CLE | Cash & GPP

After a brief stint on the reserve/COVID-19 list (close contact tracing) Ebron should be set to resume his normal role in the Steelers offense. Discounting the week 15 game when he got injured early against Cincy, Ebron has averaged a very respectable 8.2 targets over his previous five games. Despite not faring well against them earlier in the season, Ebron is in a solid match-up against the Browns who allow the 4th most FPPG to opposing tight ends. If you’re not looking to spend all the way up for Mark Andrews, someone like Ebron could come away with similar, if not better, production at a much cheaper price point.

Cole Kmet | DK: $3k, FD: $5.3k | @ NO | GPP Preferred

Don’t let the big fantasy game out of Jimmy Graham from a couple of weeks ago fool you, Kmet is emerging as the TE1 for the Bears. Over their last six games, Kmet has out-targeted Graham 33 to 19. What may be even more telling is that Kmet has run right around 80% more pass routes than Graham in that six game span. Chicago is desperate for viable receiving options, especially if Darnell Mooney (ankle) can’t suit up. The Bears are also ten point underdogs to the Saints, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them forced to pass early and often. Kmet isn’t a safe option but definitely not the most far-fetched guy to punt at the position.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in the LineStar NFL chat using @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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