Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

🏈 NFL Season Preview & Strategy Guide

🔊Check out the PreSnap Podcast every Monday, Thursday & Friday!

👇 Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! 👇

iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube

As I write this opening sentence my adrenaline is pumping, my fingers are tingling, and my heart rate is ever so slightly elevated… IT’S FINALLY WEEK ONE! We are merely hours away from the Bears and Packers kicking off the 2019 NFL season and this borderline unhealthy obsession with football is about to immediately shift into full gear (as if it hasn’t already). Before I go any further, I would like to briefly recommend for anyone who hasn’t done so yet to check out the 2019 NFL Season Preview and Strategy Guide. Whether you’re a newer NFL DFS player or a seasoned veteran who may be looking for a different perspective heading into this season, you will find some tips and strategies covering bankroll management, contest selection, and statistical approaches for every position. There is also a rundown of all of the NFL podcasts and written content that LineStar will be setting you up with this year, which is included with the incredible data, info, news, and tools already baked into your subscription to the app and desktop website.

Now, I’m sure you’re as anxious as I am to get this whole shebang underway so I won’t get too long-winded with the introduction (also, Hurricane Dorian is beating on my doorstep so I’m not exactly looking to waste any time myself!). Our focus each week will be aimed towards the main Sunday slate. We’ll be breaking down games to target and players to consider at every position and price point. Utilize these newsletters and our other LineStar content as pieces in your arsenal in combination with your own research to build a blueprint for success each week! We’ll have 12 games that land on our radar for the week one main slate so, without further adieu, let’s kick this year off with authority!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Here I will briefly outline a couple match-ups that could be worthy of game stack consideration. Just like in other sports, if you land on several players in a single lineup who get caught up in a high scoring affair, you can quickly launch your way atop the leaderboards. Game stacking is more ideal for, but not limited to, GPP contests as opposed to cash games.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 52 O/U

KC: 27.8 IPT | JAX: 24.3 IPT

No surprise that the Chiefs land here in the first suggested game stack of the season but expect Jacksonville to have a new look offense with more tempo this year. Not only did the Jags upgrade their QB situation with the addition of Nick Foles, former Vikings OC John DeFillippo will be commanding the offense. Last season DeFilippo’s Vikings ranked 11th in pace of play (2018 JAX ranked 19th). Combined with what currently stands out as the highest total of the week and just a 3.5 point spread, we could see some decent shootout potential take place here. With the addition of LeSean McCoy, predicting this Chiefs backfield gets a little muddled. It may be a couple weeks before we can confidently roll with either Damien Williams or McCoy. Until then, I’ll lean towards favoring Mahomes’ aerial threats. On the Jacksonville side, we know that Leonard Fournette should possess one of the more secure workloads in the league IF he stays healthy. With the pressure to play ‘keep up’ with Andy Reid and the Chiefs, expect to find some value in some Jaguar receivers who could see additional volume.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals | 46.5 O/U

DET: 24.5 IPT | 22 IPT

Sometimes finding preferred game stacks isn’t as simple as just targeting the highest totals of the week with close spreads. Particularly in the early season, you may have to dig a bit deeper. We can expect somewhere in the vicinity of 70 plays per game in Kliff Kingsbury’s extremely uptempo Cardinals offense. In Kingsbury’s tenure as Texas Tech’s HC, his offense routinely ranked inside the top five in all of college football in plays per game -- most recently ranking 4th in 2018 when the Red Raiders ran 82.6 plays/game. The Lions picked up former Seahawks OC (2011-2017) Darrell Bevell to take over as their offensive coordinator. The Lions ranked 23rd in pace of play last year and 25th in PPG (20.3). Look for both of those rankings to improve as Bevell routinely led a Seattle offense that ranked in the top half of points per game and, most recently in 2017, ranked 9th in pace of play. Bevell should be more capable of establishing Kerryon Johnson and the running game than former OC Jim Bob Cooter was able to. We may also see Matthew Stafford take more downfield shots this year which Bevell routinely called upon Russell Wilson to do during his Seattle tenure. It remains to be seen just how polished both of these new look offenses will be but don’t be surprised if the over hits in what could be a fast paced, closely contested game along the way.

Quarterbacks to Target

Jameis Winston | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. SF

The 2018 Bucs ranked 1st in the NFL with 320.3 passing YPG. Much of that was a byproduct of having to play catch up since their abysmal defense was unable to stop a soul. Their defense is still expected to easily be a bottom 10 unit in the league despite the additions of LB Devin White and new DC Todd Bowles. We also had the headache of the Jameis/Fitzmagic QB carousel. With Fitz in Miami, Winston will likely have a longer leash. New head coach and play caller Bruce Arians has already expressed his love for Winston as a passer. With no standout talent out of the backfield, expect the Tampa Bay offense to continue a pass happy approach in 2019. The 49ers bolstered their front seven this year which will feature guys like Dee Ford, DeForest Buckner, and No. 2 overall pick Nick Bosa, but their secondary still has some major concerns outside of the aging Richard Sherman.

Lamar Jackson | DK: $6k, FD: $7.4k | @ MIA

You could argue that teams have had ample time in the off-season to dissect Baltimore’s usage of Lamar Jackson and will have a plan in place to shut him down. That may be true for some teams that the Ravens will go on to face but the Dolphins are working with a new coaching staff and got rid of a lot of defensive talent from last year’s team -- particularly on the defensive line. Week one can often be a sloppy mess as teams struggle to get back into the rhythm of full speed, full contact football. Taking a QB who can provide a good floor with his legs can be a valuable commodity.

Nick Foles | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.5k | vs. KC

In most weeks, quarterback will be a prime position where you should pay down. Foles sets up as a viable passer to save some cash on this week, as he should be relied upon to pass all day when the Jaguars play host to the most prolific offense in the league. The Chiefs ranked 31st in the NFL last year when they allowed 272.3 passing YPG. However, they also led the league in sacks and were 8th with 1.7 takeaways per game. Unsurprisingly, much of the passing yardage surrendered by the Chiefs was from the opposing team’s need to constantly throw in order to keep up. With key personnel losses on defense and a new scheme being put in place, expect the KC defense to take a step back in sack production and takeaways. Jacksonville and Foles should still be playing from behind most of this game, so we’ll quickly find out how effective he’ll be as a team’s unquestionable starting QB. It won’t take a wild day in the box score to pay off these salaries.

Running Backs to Target

Christian McCaffrey | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.9k | vs. LAR

CMC is a rare breed of NFL running back that can be certified as “game script proof.” Barring a completely lopsided blowout, McCaffrey will see work on all three downs for essentially the entirety of the game. His 91.3% offensive snap rate in 2018 led all running backs and it wasn’t even close (Saquon ranked 2nd with an 83% snap rate). There is talk of the Panthers scaling back his workload from last year, and I’m sure there’s some truth to that. Still, I’ll be surprised if his intended volume isn’t around 20 touches most weeks. You have to imagine McCaffrey will be utilized on the ground and through the air for four full quarters, as the Panthers are three point home underdogs to the prolific Rams. Cam Newton also isn’t rushing for as many touchdowns as he used to and needs to be protected more from injuries if the Panthers have any hopes of a playoff run. The focus on avoiding an injury to Cam will be fresh in the minds of Carolina coaches after an injury scare in week three of the preseason when Newton suffered a foot sprain. CMC all day here.

Dalvin Cook | DK: $6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. ATL

With Latavius Murray now residing in New Orleans, this is Dalvin Cook’s chance to command a full three down workload. Given his injury history, I’d be surprised if the Vikings don’t enforce a bit of caution throughout the season but the Falcons are certainly a prime week one match-up for a back with his skill-set. Atlanta allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game to running backs last year (30 DKFP/25.2 FDFP) and got absolutely torched by receiving backs. They allowed the most receptions to running backs (117) along with 934 yards and four scores through the air. Keep an eye on that questionable tag which WR Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is carrying into this week, which comes as somewhat of a surprise. Cook was in line for strong volume to begin with but his usage could get an additional bump if Diggs is limited or scratched.

Chris Carson | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.6k | vs. CIN

If the preseason is any indication, Chris Carson has separated himself from Rashaad Penny in the “backfield by committee” department. We may see more of a 70/30 split, favoring Carson in more of a traditional featured back role. That would be a valuable role to be in for an offense that led the NFL in rushing play percentage in 2018 when Seattle ran on 52.44% of plays. The Seahawks are sizable 9.5 point home favorites against a Cincinnati defense that was the worst overall unit in the league last year. Last season the Bengals also allowed 31.7 DKFP per game to running backs -- most in the league. While the workload split still isn’t certain, anything worse than a 60/40 split (in Carson’s favor) would be a surprise. Otherwise, this spells out a dream game script for a running back.

LeSean McCoy | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.8k | @ JAX

While you should likely avoid this backfield at all costs in cash games, at least until we figure out how LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams will co-exist in this offense, it’s an intriguing situation for GPPs. If Shady sees somewhere around 12 touches or so in Reid’s system, that is enough of a workload to return value at these prices. Still, we’re not sure just how much of the playbook McCoy will have down in time for Sunday’s 1:00 pm ET kickoff. So, once again, use caution. If Kansas City gets a healthy lead it could be a prime opportunity for McCoy to see some additional in-game reps.

Justin Jackson | DK: $4k, FD: $5.9k | vs. IND

With Melvin Gordon in a contract dispute and seeking a trade from the Chargers, at least for the foreseeable future, this will be Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson’s backfield to share. Most are under the assumption that Ekeler will be the leader in about a 60/40 split while also owning most passing down work, but Jackson’s volume could make him fantasy relevant as well. The Chargers are nearly a touchdown favorite at home over the Luck-less Colts so the game script should play into the running game’s favor as the game wears on. The Chargers may have gotten used to using Melvin Gordon heavily when they get deep in enemy territory in recent seasons, so you have to imagine that Jackson will have a couple cracks at goal line duty. Some solid touchdown upside with a shot at 60-80 yards rushing isn’t the wildest prediction to make for him.

Wide Receivers to Target

Julio Jones | DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k | @ MIN

Julio Jones, the 2018 NFL target leader (169), may go overlooked a bit this week with the combination of a tough match-up on paper and a high DFS salary working against him. For those reasons, that should make him a prime GPP target. Julio thrived on the road last year where he averaged an additional six DKFP per game as Matt Ryan’s safety blanket. Jones commanded 28% of his team's targets in 2018 and he should be a safe bet for a 10+ target day when the Falcons take on the Vikings as four point underdogs. He may see plenty of shadow coverage from top cornerback Xavier Rhodes but his target volume should not be in danger because of it. This will be a great test for two guys who are among the best in the game at their respective positions.

Robert Woods | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k | @ CAR

From a consistency standpoint, Woods was one of the most steady fantasy point producers at the position for the majority of last year after scoring double digit DKFP in 14 consecutive weeks. The debate with the Rams receivers is a weekly conundrum but the good thing about having Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Cooper Kupp all on the field for nearly every snap (combined with Todd Gurley out of the backfield) is that defenses cannot key in on any one player. When defenses do try to stop one Ram receiver in particular, usually by shadowing with their top cornerback, it’s typically Brandin Cooks. The Panthers secondary has a ton of problems to figure out so it’s hard to argue against a strong floor for Robert Woods this week, who is returning as the Rams 2018 target leader (129).

Kenny Golladay | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.9k | @ ARI

This mid-range is loaded with great DFS options this week. The Cardinals will be without their top two cornerbacks in Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (injured reserve). Expect plenty of volume to come Golladay’s way. As mentioned above in the “Games to Target” section, this could be a sneaky shootout with a fast tempo and Detroit’s new OC has a history of coaching a strong down field passing attack. With former Lions target sponges, Golden Tate and Theo Riddick playing elsewhere this year, there’s no question who will command the majority of Matthew Stafford’s attention all over the field.

Dede Westbrook | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.9k | vs. KC

I could probably talk about five or six other WRs in that mid-range but the truth is that this position is the deepest in fantasy football and you’ll find strong value lower down the salary hierarchy each and every week. In the sub $5k/$6k DK/FD ranges, Westbrook stands out as one of the most appealing targets. I’ve already hit on this game a good bit in this newsletter, but Foles and Westbrook appeared to have a clear connection established in the preseason and we are already predicting quite a bit of passing from the Jaguars offense. I’m anticipating upwards of 8 to 10 targets will head Westbrook’s direction -- many of the “high percentage completion” variety, especially when he works out of the slot. There should be a good floor with solid upside here.

Curtis Samuel | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.9k | vs. LAR

If you followed any Panther beat reporters or certain fantasy football guys, you’ll know how much Samuel has impressed in training camp heading into this season. The media hype on him was unreal. It’s time for him to translate the hype onto the field in a meaningful game. Someone has to soak up Devin Funchess’ 78 targets from last season and they can’t all go to CMC, DJ Moore, or an oft-injured and aging Greg Olsen. It’s tough to predict what kind of floor Samuel will have in week one but I’m certainly ready to see what all the buzz is about.

Tight Ends to Target

Evan Engram | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.4k | @ DAL

You can pay the Kelce/Ertz/Kittle “tax” if you want, but often times you can find plenty of viable cheaper TEs to deploy -- at least on DraftKings, where salaries for other top tight ends are lower in comparison to FanDuel. With Odell Beckham Jr. now playing ball in Cleveland, the Giants are missing 123 targets and a 28% target share of their 2018 offense. Evan Engram is one of the primary beneficiaries who will soak up what should amount to consistent weekly volume. OBJ had 21 targets that were of the RedZone variety last year. Engram is a big bodied, athletic guy who will certainly fill some of the void left in the RedZone offense as well. The Giants obviously aren’t projected to have a potent offense but volume is king in fantasy football and Engram should get his fair share.

Hunter Henry | DK: $3.9k, FD: $6.1k | vs. IND

Hunter Henry plans to be another less obvious beneficiary on this Chargers offense with Melvin Gordon out of the picture. Henry still has to live up to all the hype that has surrounded him throughout his brief professional career. But now that he’s had time to fully recover from the torn ACL that sidelined him all of last year and Antonio Gates is out of the picture, it’s time for him to shine. The Colts allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends in 2018 so this could be a soft match-up for him to catch back up to the speed of an actual NFL football game.

Delanie Walker | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.4k | @ CLE

In Walker’s last healthy season (2017) he commanded a 22% target share, which led the Titans offense. Prior to tearing his ACL early in 2018, Walker had four consecutive 800+ yard seasons -- a valiant feat for a tight end. The DraftKings price is ridiculous for a guy who should immediately step back into a fairly high volume role. No issues with the match-up either, as the Browns allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends in 2018. Even though the Titans are another bottom tier offense, Walker should get plenty of attention from Marcus Mariota. Volume simply can’t be overlooked, especially for the tight end position where very few guys consistently turn in strong fantasy numbers.

Defensive Breakdown

Seattle Seahawks DST | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. CIN

Cincinnati went 1-7 in games without AJ Green last year and posted an average of just 17 points. This week they’ll carry the second lowest implied team total (17.8 points) and will have to play in a tough environment on the road in Seattle. The Seahawks also added pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney to bring even more pressure on the edge against Andy Dalton. Seattle has to be considered one of the better “cash safe” defenses on the board this week.

Los Angeles Chargers DST | DK: $3k, FD: $4k | vs. IND

With week one NFL salaries typically released well in advance of the regular season kicking off, it’s important to identify mispricings that occur due to injuries, trades, or, in this case, a retirement. The Chargers DST is priced as if Andrew Luck was playing. He obviously will not. This is a likely top five defense that you can snag at a discount this week as well.

Weekly NFL Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We’ll be hosting a weekly NFL freeroll on DraftKings, so remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar freeroll!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• BONUS - If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.

Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!