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- Top NFL Plays Week #1 | So It Begins
Top NFL Plays Week #1 | So It Begins
Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS
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Okay ladies and gents, I believe it’s about that time… live action NFL football is just hours away! This is the real deal -- not a drill. I’m a 29 year old guy and far removed from my adolescence, but the night before the official kick-off of the NFL regular season might be the closest thing I get to that anticipatory, anxiety-inducing “night before Christmas” feeling these days and it’s finally (almost) here! If you’re like me, you watched that last bit of confetti fall during the Super Bowl 52 post-game interviews and that dreadful thought of, “well, damn… seven months until football again” quickly set in.
So you bided your time -- maybe you anticipated and watched the combine religiously, rooted your team on as they either aced or flunked the NFL draft. You stayed patient, grasping at every juicy sliver of news and every trade rumor that the NFL beat writers had to offer leading up to training camp. You organized and researched for your fantasy football league drafts (and hopefully avoided the likes of Derrius Guice and Jerick McKinnon). Did you reach for Saquon ahead of Zeke or AB? Maybe you made an attempt to guess which Patriot running back will have the most success in 2018? Did you take Peyton Barber in the 9th and get away with stealing an RB2? We’ll see, but at the very least, hopefully you weren’t the guy who took the Jacksonville D/ST in the 9th round! You sat through preseason games, and after two drives, started Googling the unfamiliar names of guys you heard the announcer say before switching over to binge something on Netflix as you had an internal monologue of, “when will it end?” Finally, college football kicked off, the NFL preseason ended, final trades and roster cuts were made, folks renewed their RedZone subscriptions and the real sensation started to set in… football is back!
So, not to jabber on too much further about my excitement for professional football kicking off, a real quick introduction. My name is Ryan Humphries, you can tag me in LineStar chat by the username @N1TRO, and follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS. I’ve been involved in NFL DFS since the DraftStreet days in 2011 and recently I’ve been whipping up the LineStar PGA Newsletters for the past few months. If you’re familiar with those, you’ll know I take a heavy analytical approach but try to sprinkle in certain “gut plays” along the way. I’m always open to suggestions and criticism, so just reach me in chat or on Twitter with anything! Also, the NFL newsletters will aim to cover Thursday thru Monday night football, not just the main slates. One quick shoutout to Erik, Dan, Greg and all the other LineStar staff and content producers who are constantly looking to improve the app and website with the best features and information you could ask for! Now, let’s get into week one, shall we?
Games to Target
Now, if you’ve done even just some light research, you’ll know the two games that are likely to garner the highest ownership are HOU@NE (51 O/U) and TB@NO (49.5 O/U). The usual suspects in those games make for great plays but I’ll highlight a couple other games that should feature less popular plays.
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
45 O/U | TEN 23.25 implied points | Miami 21.75 implied points
Sometimes the best games to stack aren’t the ones that have the highest projected totals but instead games that are predicted to stay close, causing offenses to constantly be aggressive. The over could easily hit on this one as neither defense was particularly dominant in 2017. Now, there aren’t a lot of studs featured in this game but I believe it’s a solid spot for value. With DeVante Parker already ruled out for week one, you can pick your poison with either Kenny Stills ($4.7k DK, $6k FD) as a potential home run threat but should still see solid volume or Danny Amendola ($4.2k DK, $5.1k FD) as a solid PPR slot receiver who could realistically see 10 targets from returning QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans did have the 4th best rush defense in 2017, so until we get a decent sample size for 2018, I’d prefer to attack them through the air.
From the Tennessee side, I think Marcus Mariota ($6.3k DK, $7.2k FD) and one or two options from his receiving arsenal makes for a nice contrarian stack. Delanie Walker ($4.9k DK, $6.1k FD) almost always makes for a solid TE for cash games if you’re not paying up for Gronk. I want to wait to see how the Derrick Henry ($5.4k DK, $6.8k FD) and Dion Lewis ($4.9k DK, $6.2k FD) backfield distributes touches before I use either heavily. However, I’ve been a fan of Lewis’ play making ability since he emerged with the Pats and wouldn’t be opposed to rolling him out on DraftKings where you can benefit more from his skill set with the full PPR scoring.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
48 O/U | KC 22.5 implied points | LAC 25.5 implied points
This is a big divisional game to open the season and another one that Vegas is predicting to stay close. On the Chiefs side, I would reserve the passing attack to GPPs only but I really love Kareem Hunt ($6.9k DK, $8k FD) in this game. A shifty RB who can catch out of the backfield is a young quarterback’s best friend and Hunt should be the feature of their week one game plan. The Chargers were the worst rushing defense on a per carry basis last year, allowing 4.9 ypc to opposing backs. Unsurprisingly, Hunt went for 28 and 43 DK points against them in their two previous meetings. Outside of the afternoon slates and with so much value across the board, I’d be surprised to see a ton of ownership on Kareem.
On the Chargers end, history tells us that Phillip Rivers ($6.4k DK, $7.5k FD) tends to struggle against KC, but it’s hard not to like the Rivers & Keenan Allen ($7.5k DK, $8k FD) pairing for a ton of upside. The Chiefs defense isn’t one that scares me at any level, which will also make Melvin Gordon ($6.8k DK, $8.1k FD) a viable option as he has one of the most secure all around workloads among all NFL running backs.
Quarterbacks to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Aaron Rodgers ($7.5k DK, $8.7k FD) vs. CHI
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
I’m usually not a fan of paying up for quarterbacks in general, particularly in cash games, but if Green Bay is included in the slate you’re looking to play (and you’re not going the Brady or Brees route) why not go with arguably the game’s best? It’s no secret the Packers are a pass first offense and Rodgers should be itching to get back out and sling it around after only playing in six games last year before going down with a broken collarbone against Minnesota. The Bears were the 7th best pass defense in 2017 but I wouldn’t say they faced the hardest gauntlet of QB's by any means. Certainly the addition of Khalil Mack bolsters their defense overall but the Packers still have the third highest implied team total of any team this week at 27.5 points.
Stack Options: Davante Adams (Cash), Jimmy Graham (GPP)
Matthew Stafford ($6.5k DK, $7.8k FD) vs. NYJ
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Stafford averaged about four more fantasy points at home versus on the road last season. This week the Lions, who are at home, get what should be an easy matchup against the Jets and are projected for 25.75 points. With no clear cut plan for their backfield to start off the season, I’d expect a heavy dose of the Lions passing attack. Stafford threw the fifth most passes inside the redzone last year at 78 attempts, and while I do expect Blount falling in on the goal line to be a possibility throughout the season, Theo Riddick and Kerryon Johnson are two backs very capable of catching out of the backfield, which can only add to Stafford’s TD contribution upside. The Jets allowed the second most passing touchdowns and tallied the fifth fewest sacks in 2017. Stafford should be able to stay clean and have time to sling it around in this one.
Stack Options: Golden Tate (Cash), Marvin Jones Jr. (GPP)
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Andy Dalton ($5.8k DK, $6.8k FD) @ IND
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Dalton travels on the road to face the Colts who were one of the worst defenses against the pass last season (246.6 yds/gm, 5th worst). The Bengals are three point underdogs but are still expected to put up 22.75 points -- not exactly a high end number but certainly nothing to shy away from. Until Joe Mixon proves he can be a dominant force out of the backfield, I think the Bengals should rely on their passing attack earlier in the season. The floor can certainly be low with “The Red Rifle” but I like the matchup and potential low ownership to be too worried here.
Stack Options: A.J. Green (Cash), John Ross (GPP), Tyler Eifert (GPP)
Dak Prescott ($5.5k DK, $7k FD) @ CAR
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Everyone expects Dallas to be the Zeke show and rightfully so, but Dak has proven before that he can put up some monster DFS numbers. He’s always been a fairly efficient guy and can usually add 20-40 yards on the ground with a chance of a rushing touchdown as well. His receiving weapons might be some of the worst in the league and they only have an implied team total of 20 points, but that’s what makes this essentially a GPP only play.
Stack Options: Allen Hurns (GPP), Michael Gallup (GPP)
💲 Low Salary 💲
Case Keenum ($5.1 DK, $6.3k FD) vs. SEA
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Keenum actually comes off as a play that I don’t mind for cash. You only need about 15 points from him to hit value -- a mark he hit in the majority of his starts last season. Seattle’s defense is projected to take a major step backwards and should no longer be a team to necessarily avoid. Add on to the fact that the Seahawks have to travel into Denver where it’s never a cakewalk to get acclimated to the altitude. A 260 yard, 2 TD, 1 INT performance is very reasonable to project for Keenum and would result in easy value.
Stack Options: Emmanuel Sanders (Cash), Demaryius Thomas (GPP)
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5k DK, $6.2k FD) @ NO
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
I’m not in love with the Fitz play, but in theory, it could definitely work out. The Bucs should be playing the majority of this game from behind and they really have nothing to lose in letting Fitzpatrick throw it 40 times. The Bucs receivers are decent playmakers and are capable of padding Fitz’s stat line. Hell, if it turns into a huge blowout, we might see him playing against the Saints’ backups in garbage time. Worth a GPP dart throw here and there.
Stack Options: Mike Evans (GPP), Chris Godwin (GPP)
Wide Receivers to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
DeAndre Hopkins ($8.3k DK, $8.8k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
With all the value in week one, it won’t be hard fitting someone like Hopkins into your lineups. Hopkins thrived no matter who was under center last year but he had some absolute monster games when returning QB Deshaun Watson was slinging it. Hopkins drew 43.87% of his teams total air yards (TAY%) in 2017 which trailed only A.J. Green (46.31 TAY%) and Julio Jones (46 TAY%). Furthermore, in the games that Watson played at QB, he led the league in Average Intended Air Yards (IAY) meaning he looks for the big plays. Hopkins carries more upside than just about anyone at the position.
Michael Thomas ($7.8k DK, $8.5k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
The Saints should be scoring a ton of points this week and Thomas could be the safest bet for a receiving touchdown on the entire slate, trailing perhaps only Gronkowski. Thomas checked in at 5th in the NFL garnering 41.62% of his team’s total air yards in 2017. And with Mark Ingram suspended for the first four games of the year, I could see Brees reverting back to throwing it upwards of 40 times per game and giving Thomas 12+ of those targets.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Chris Hogan ($6.1k DK, $6.7k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Not exactly taking any major leaps of faith so far with these WR picks, but it’s too hard to not like the floor and upside Hogan should have this week. Edelman is obviously out, leaving Hogan and Gronkowski as the primary targets for Tom Brady down the field. Not much analysis needs to be put into this one. Roll him in cash games with a ton of confidence.
Allen Robinson II ($6.3k DK, $6.5k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
It’s a bit unfortunate this game doesn’t fall onto the main slate because ARob would be one of my major GPP targets. But in slates with the CHI@GB game, I’d give him a serious look. Newer fans to the NFL might not have seen how dominant he was in his 2014 season where he went for 1,400 yards and 14 TD's with Blake Bortles in Jacksonville. Last year, he caught one pass before tearing his ACL, but it appears he’s a full go with his new team and young quarterback in Trubisky. Game script should lend itself to Robinson seeing plenty of looks as the Bears look to get their young core of players acclimated to one another.
💲 Low Salary 💲
John Brown ($3.7k DK, $5.5k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
John Brown gets ready to make his regular season debut in Baltimore this week. Brown was 3rd in the league in aDOT (Average Depth of Target) in 2017 at Arizona averaging 15.7 yards per look. Now he gets Joe Flacco a QB, who many consider to have one of the better deep balls in the NFL (though he didn’t show it much last season). I don’t expect Brown to be a one trick pony in this offense as he should see a substantial amount of targets come his way and he looked great in the preseason. Assuming Crabtree draws more attention from top Buffalo CB Tre’Davious White, Brown could see some really positive mismatches.
Danny Amendola ($4.2k DK, $5.1k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
I hit on Amendola in the “Games to Target” section but wanted to elaborate a bit more on him here. Obviously, without Parker suiting up this week, he takes on an even higher expanded role for Tannehill out of the slot. Amendola has struggled quite often with injuries throughout his career but he’s been productive when he gets the snaps. I could easily see something like a 7 catch, 85 yard, 1 TD performance this week. Love him in all formats.
Running Backs to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
David Johnson ($8.8k DK, $8.6k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
DJ is going to come out the gates as the focal point of the Cardinals offense both on the ground and through the air. A player entering a season coming off of a season ending injury is always concerning, but thankfully in Johnson’s case, it was only a wrist injury (and not a leg/knee injury) that he has fully rehabbed from. He’s bulked up during his time off and will be playing for a new contract this season. He’s a player that was regularly priced around $10k on DraftKings, so I see nothing wrong with taking him at his sizable discount before his price catches up to his production.
Todd Gurley II ($9.3k DK, $9k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
What do I really have to say about Gurley here? The Rams will be 4.5 point road favorites going into Oakland and, as evidenced by his 2017 season under Sean McVay, Gurley will be both the hammer and the nail in the coffin in many games this year. He carries a hefty price tag but there’s not many guys who can put up 40+ fantasy points like he did *three times* last season.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Saquon Barkley ($6.7k DK, $7.6k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
On the surface, people will likely be scared away from anyone on the Giants simply because of the matchup. But the Jags were nothing special when it came to defending the run (12th worst in the league). Barkley should take on a feature role immediately and it’s not a stretch to predict 25 touches for the rookie in his regular season debut. Volume is the name of the game in DFS and he’ll get plenty of it. Just go watch his highlights from Penn State to see what kind of play making ability this guy has if you aren’t already aware. Assuming his hamstring is a non-issue, I really like him for GPPs at his price tag.
Christian McCaffrey ($6.4k DK, $7.5k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
When looking at DraftKings in particular, CMC brings a very stable amount of production with the full PPR scoring system. As many are aware, McCaffrey is slated to take on more of a featured role than he had last year, but he’ll need to improve on that 3.7 ypc average he had last season if he hopes for that to hold true. For now, he seems slightly underpriced and carries a fairly reliable floor. I don’t love the matchup with Dallas, but Cam and the Panthers will rely on him heavily to move the chains and inside the redzone.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Jordan Wilkins ($3.7k DK, $5.1k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
First off, there are a plethora of value running backs to select from in week one but I’ll start with one of the cheapest options. Wilkins is slated to get the start at RB if Marlon Mack gets ruled out (which is looking likely). It’s unclear what his workload will be, but if it’s anywhere in the vicinity of 12-15 touches, Wilkins should be a solid value. Watching college tape on him, he’s a solid “slasher” who can make one cut and get up field quickly for chunk yardage. He has some pass catching ability, and as long as he doesn’t suffer too much in pass protection for Andrew Luck, he could find himself as one of the best values on the board. If he gets the start, more first team reps this week and some sort of confident remarks from Coach Frank Reich, bump him up a star for cash & GPP ratings.
Carlos Hyde ($4.5k DK, $5.9k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Hyde has been known to virtually always show up in week one. Cleveland may not be comfortable rolling out Chubb too much just yet, so I’d expect Hyde to garner most of the touches out of the backfield. Sustained winds in Cleveland are forecasted to be in the 20+ mph range, which would definitely benefit the run game for both Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Duke Johnson should see his fair share of targets but Hyde is a capable pass catching back himself.
James Conner ($4.5k DK, $5k FD)
Cash Rating: N/A GPP Rating: N/A
This all depends on if Le’Veon Bell is around to play this week. If not, look for Conner to be one of the highest owned guys on the slate.
Tight Ends to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Rob Gronkowski ($6.9k DK, $7.9k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
No surprise here obviously, but to me, he’s far and away the guy to spend up on. No analysis needed for the best tight end in the NFL. If you can afford him, Gronk is almost always the best route to take at the position.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Jack Doyle ($3.6k DK, $5.6k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Doyle should immediately step in as Luck’s safety blanket. In the preseason, Luck hasn’t shown much in the way of throwing it deep down field. Maybe they were just being conservative with both Luck and the playbook, but if the Colts are taking a dink and dunk approach, then Doyle stands to be a primary beneficiary and should see 7-10 targets.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Antonio Gates ($2.6k DK, $4.8k FD)
Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
If you’re completely punting the position, it wouldn’t hurt to err on the side of history and go with Phillip Rivers’ historically favorite target in Antonio Gates. Make sure he is starting before you throw him in anywhere on Sunday. There’s no definitive source claiming his current role for week one.
Defensive Breakdown
Ravens D/ST ($3.8k DK, $4.8k FD)
This is your defense to target for cash games, point blank. They’ll likely be 60+% owned, so you stand too much to risk if they go off on Nathan Peterman and the lowly Bills, whose implied point total only sits at 16.75 points. Targeting the top priced defense isn't necessarily going to be the strategy every week, but since it should be easy to afford the Ravens this week, it's hard to ignore them.
LA Chargers D/ST ($2.8k DK, $4.3k FD)
Even though I expect Hunt to have a nice week, I like the Chargers D/ST as more of a GPP target. Historically, they have schemed against primary weapon Travis Kelce well, as he’s never scored a TD against them and only averages about 4 catches for 38 yards in his 8 games against them. They also have perhaps the best pass rush in the NFL. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers reel in 4 to 6 sacks and rush Mahomes into a couple bad decisions.
Thursday Night Special
Shelton Gibson ($200 DK, $6k FD)
For those playing the single game slate between the Falcons and Eagles, it’s tough to create unique lineups. Gibson is as cheap as it gets on both sites and is slated to return kicks and potentially see action in three WR sets with Alshon Jeffrey sidelined. He doesn’t have to do much to pay off value, and I assume he garners relatively low ownership -- at least low for what can be expected of a single game slate. He caught 9 passes for 195 yards and two touchdowns across three preseason games.
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