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Week 1 Breakdown - FOOTBALL IS BACK BABY

QB:

• Russell Wilson, SEA (@GB) - Cash/TournamentThomas Rawls status is uncertain which could leave the Seahawks with Eddie Lacy as the sole bell cow. Lacy did not look good in the pre-season, and we've yet to see him do anything of significance in 2 years now.   This game between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks currently has a 50.5 over/under from Vegas, the highest total of this week. Two high powered offenses going at each other, in a game where Wilson might have to throw more than usual, makes him one of the best picks of the week.

• Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (@CLE) - Tournament Cleveland had some of the worst pass defense in the league in 2016, with offseason moves it looks a bit better on paper for 2017. However, Big Ben should still be able to pass with ease against them. Le'veon Bell held himself out, and did not play in a preseason game. So it's hard to say whether he's in game shape or not at this point, which would mean Big Ben could be throwing the ball a bit more in week 1. He's getting his Martavis Bryant toy back after a year away from the team. All signs point to Roethlisberger moving up and down the field in this game with a respectable 46.5 over/under.

• Brian Hoyer, SF (vs. CAR) - Uncle Pete's Contrarian PickThe best part, he's super cheap in every format, and going to be low owned. And there's one thing we know; Hoyer loves to throw the ball. He could easily see upward of 40 pass attempts in this game. Carolina is currently favored by 5.5 points. The 49ers will likely be down most of the game and playing the old 'catch up with Cam' game. This game has a surprisingly high 48 point over under, and Hoyer is going to get his.

RB:

• Dalvin Cook, MIN (vs. NO) - Cash New Orleans allowed 19 rushing TDs, and 101 YPG in the 2016 campaign. It was often the right move last season to target players going against them, and until they prove otherwise will be the case in the early part of this season. Dalvin Cook has secured his spot as the bell cow running back in Minnesota, and is likely to see 20+ carries in his rookie debut. With this game being played in Minnesota away from the Superdome it's unlikely that the Saints will be able to gain a significant lead, so that Cook should remain viable throughout the game.

• Bilal Powell, Jets (@BUF) - Tournament Buffalo was the 29th ranked rushing defense last season, allowing 133 rushing yards per game. There is not much positive to say about the Jets this season as they'll be lucky to win a game, but Powell did look good in preseason. Forte's status is unclear on several fronts, he's practicing but retains an injury status, and in a rebuilding year the Jets are not committed to Forte at all. Bilal Powell is a very good pass catching back, and in open space does a great job at making people miss. With the Jets certain to be down in this game, Powell is going to be getting his fair share of dump offs from Josh McCown.

• Terrance West, BAL (@CIN) - Contrarian  Vontaze Burfict is suspended for the first 3 games of the season, and without him on the field the Bengals run defense takes a big hit. After some departures and unfortunate injuries for the Ravens, it appears most of the offensive side of the team is fully healthy to begin the season to take some of the pressure off the running game. It's looking like this game is going to be a slugfest between these division rivals, and West is locked in to be the bell cow. He has some things to prove this year, and will look to take advantage of this depleted defense.

WR:

• Doug Baldwin, SEA (@GB) - Cash Green Bay was near the bottom in league pass defense last year in most categories. They allowed 32 receiving TDs (ranked 29th), 122 yards after catch per game (ranked 22), 8.1 yards per attempt (32nd). Needless to say, unless they've drastically turned things around, Green Bay is an excellent defense to target for opposing WR's. Doug Baldwin is an exceptionally talented and physical wide receiver who is sure to take advantage of Green Bays generous yards after catch allowance. As noted in the Russell Wilson section, this game has the highest over under, and should have plenty of offensive scoring to go around. Baldwin looks to be one of the safer options this week, with a very high floor and ceiling.

• Allen Robinson, JAX (@HOU) - Contrarian-GPP This is a tournament-only play, Robinson is projected to be low owned after disappointing countless fantasy owners last year, but he still has a high ceiling. Houston was overall a very strong defense last year. However they finished fairly poorly, allowing 3 receivers to eclipse 100 yards in their last 4 games. This is still going to be a tough matchup to overcome for Bortles and Robinson to start off the year, but they are surely to be looking to start the season strong, to hold the naysayers off. This pick could easily go horribly wrong, but the upside and low ownership has a chance to surprise.

• Brandon Marshall, NYG (@ DAL) - Crazy Carl's Pick Odell Cornelious Beckham Jr. hasn't practiced since injuring his ankle in Week 2 of the Preseason. Even if OCBJ plays, at most he'll likely be a decoy. The Giants are incapable of running, so they will have to air it out. Marshall's top competition for targets this week will be Sterling Shepard. Shepard failed to reach 700 yards receiving last year. His fantasy relevance was entirely touchdown dependent. Sure, Shepard should see improvement in his second year, but Marshall will steal a lot of those touchdowns, and he has proven to be fantasy elite with much worse at quarterback than Eli Manning. It's week one, so there are many unknowns, but we're putting our money on Marshall to be the go-to guy in this offense and to be a steal at this price tag (DraftKings anyhow).

Notables: Kendall Wright, Jamison Crowder

• Zach Miller, Da Bears (vs. ATL) - Tournament The Bears certainly aren't going to be blowing teams out this season, but someone has to catch the ball in Chicago right? Alshon Jeffery is on a new team, Cameron Meredith is done for the season, they cut Victor Cruz, Kevin White has yet to prove he can be a factor. Zach Miller is the familar dependable face left in Chicago to catch the ball. He has an off-chance to have 7+ catches this game and a TD if things don't get too out of control. Taking any player on the Bears is going to be a risk, with so many unknowns, but sometimes you have to take some risks to win tournaments. 

• Zach Ertz, Phi (@WAS) -Cash The Eagles traded away their top wide reciever last year (Jordan Matthews) to the Bills. They gained Alshon Jefferey who is sure to soak up most of those targets, but the connection will likely take time to build, add to that Josh Norman is likely to shadow Alshon week 1. Ertz should be the familiar face for Carson Wentz to dump off safe target, and makes for an especially nice PPR play in DraftKings. Add to this, the Eagles start this season with an extremely suspect running game, with LeGarrette Blount leading the backfield.

Notables: Charles Clay, Antonio Gates (Lock for 1 TD to set the all-time TE TD record)

Def:

• Jacksonville Jaguars (@HOU)  Texans QB Tom Savage has 0 TDs in 92 career pass attempts in the regular season. Lamar Miller was underwhelming his first year in Houston. The Jags D was sub-par last year fantasy-wise, but they weren't as bad as their fantasy numbers as they gave up the 6th fewest yards. They added some studs over the offseason as well. Caveman Speak: Texans Offense bad, Jags Defense solid. The two fears here are that the Texans figure out how to better use Miller in his second year, and the obvious emotional boost Houston will have after Hurricane Harvey similar to the Saints post-Katrina.

• Philadelphia Eagles (@WAS)  The Eagles have landed! Cousins has a new offensive coordinator and several new weapons, don't be surprised if their offense doesn't have it all together in their first game. "Fat Rob" isn't exactly the most intimidating running back either. Meanwhile, the Eagles D finished last year strong averaging almost 11 FPPG (DraftKings) in their final four games. Cornerback is a concern, but they look good everywhere else. This could backfire, but the upside for an average-priced D is rather juicy.

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