Top NFL Plays Week #10 | Dissecting a Tricky Slate

November 08, 2018

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS

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The NFL schedule is nearing the home stretch of the regular season as we enter into week ten of action. Maybe it’s just me but week nine, from an entertainment standpoint, was a bit of a let down. Out of 13 games, only four had one-score margins of victory, so the blowouts were abundant. This week, from a DFS perspective, we don’t have any match-ups that necessarily jump off the page like last week’s Rams/Saints game, though seven of 14 games do carry totals of 50 points or higher. From a first look, this appears to be a pretty good week for some value as well. So I’ll keep the intro brief here -- let’s jump into the nitty gritty and find some games to attack and players to target!

Games to Target

Atlanta Falcons (-5) @ Cleveland Browns | 50.5 O/U

ATL: 27.75 implied points | CLE: 22.75 implied points

There are certainly some other games that could qualify as my favorite match-up to stack but I’m really liking the look of this face-off between the Falcons and Browns. This is a nice pace-up spot for Atlanta as Cleveland plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the league while the Falcons rank 16th. Since week two, Atlanta’s offense has been one of the best in the NFL, averaging 30.4 PPG. Cleveland is allowing the 5th most PPG with 27.4. Cleveland’s defense is getting dismantled in both facets of the game, allowing 285 yds/gm passing (6th most) and 138.9 yds/gm rushing (4th most). With the added offensive snaps that the Falcons should see, they make for a top team to stack even on the road.

The Browns, under interim offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, ran 70 offensive plays last week versus the Chiefs which is basically right on par with their season average. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hit a similar mark as they look to once again keep up with another potent offense. Atlanta’s defense has certainly been exploitable as they allow the 4th most points per game at 28.3 PPG. They’re more susceptible through the air, allowing 304.3 yds/gm passing (4th most) and are middle of the road in run defense, allowing 108.5 yds/gm rushing (16th most). Though, as I’m sure you’re tired of hearing by now, the Falcons get worked over quite a bit by pass catching backs by allowing 8.5 catches for 64.4 yds/gm receiving to the position. There’s plenty of room to take advantage of some Brown’s offensive weapons here.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) | 47 O/U

JAX: 22 implied points | IND: 25 implied points

Yes, this seems like an odd game to highlight but I’ll go ahead and note that this is more of a GPP game stack recommendation but not without reason. Somewhat surprisingly, this game will feature two of the four fastest paced teams in the league. On average, Indianapolis runs a play every 24.71 seconds (1st) and Jacksonville runs a play every 26.05 seconds (4th). The Jaguars will face a Colts defense that is allowing 26.6 PPG (8th most) and allowing 371.4 total yds/gm (10th most). With Leonard Fournette projected to make his return, deciding on who to target on this offense is as muddled as ever but they make for an intriguing low owned team to stack in tournaments.

Jacksonville has been a good, not great, defense overall. Their pass defense still ranks tops in the league, allowing just 190 yds/gm through the air. However, they have a bottom-ten run defense that allows 123.3 yds/gm rushing (9th most). Andrew Luck and the Colts are 2nd in the NFL with 23 passing touchdowns, so this figures to be a strength versus strength scenario and it’ll be interesting to see what gives. The name recognition of the Jags' defense alone is enough to keep the large majority of DFS players off of this game entirely but it’s a very sneaky spot worth attacking if you ask me.

Quarterbacks to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Aaron Rodgers (DK: $6.4k | FD: $8.6k) vs. MIA

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

This seems like another great week to look to pay down at quarterback but if you’re not opting for Mahomes at the very top, then Rodgers, of course, makes about as high of an upside pick on the board. The Packers are reeling as they are on a 1-3 skid and sit at third place in the NFC North with a 3-4-1 record. They are in desperate need of a healthy win and getting Miami at home this week could do the trick. This will only be their second home game since week five and the last time Rodgers was at home he threw for 425 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Miami’s defense won’t find their match-up this week as friendly as the one they had in week nine against Sam Darnold. They’re allowing 8.2 YPA (5th most) and when you account for Rodgers attempting 41 passes per game, that should pan out for a nice day for one of the game’s elite. The only way I could see Rodgers not hitting decent value is if Green Bay pulls far away very early on but considering the Packers defense allows 25.5 PPG, they may just be bad enough to allow the Dolphins to hang around. Either way, I can easily see a 350+ yard, three score day for ARod here.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Philip Rivers (DK: $6k | FD: $8.2k) @ OAK

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

If you had to guess who is the only quarterback in the NFL to throw for multiple touchdowns in every game this season, would you guess Philip Rivers? If so, you’d be correct. Rivers has been extremely reliable and efficient this year. His QBR of 76.6 ranks third in the league behind only Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees. Now he gets to face off with a terrible -- no… atrocious Oakland secondary who just allowed a third stringer in Nick Mullens to throw for nearly 300 yards and three scores on them last week. They’re allowing a league-worst 9.1 YPA and 31.5 PPG (2nd most). This will be the second time around Rivers will face this Raiders defense after completing 81.5% of his passes against them in week five for 339 yards and two touchdowns (24.36 fantasy points). Rivers typically isn’t targeted too much among DFS players this year due to his somewhat low week-to-week ceiling compared to other more volatile guys at the position but he’s had a great floor and makes for a perfect cash game quarterback in the match-up.

Honorable Mention:

Alex Smith (DK: $5.3k | FD: $7.6k) @ TB

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Just wanted to hit on Smith real quick as well for a mid-range quarterback suited for cash games. It’s the Buc’s defense. Cam Newton was the mega-chalk last week versus them and even with a big day from CMC and some non-traditional TD's from their full-back and a long rushing TD from WR Samuel, Cam still managed 21.18 points on pretty much minimal volume. Alex Smith should have a floor of 15 points here but his ceiling can be limited. Looks good for cash games.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Marcus Mariota (DK: $4.7k | FD: $6.7k) vs. NE

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Mariota turned in a very solid fantasy output this past week versus Dallas. As is the case with any player who does well on Monday Night Football, they avoid a DFS salary increase as prices are already released for the week. Mariota is dirt cheap across the industry and will be involved in a match-up that should lead to a ton of passing on the Titans' side as they will look to keep pace with Tom Brady and the Patriots. New England allows 274.2 yds/gm passing (7th most) and over two touchdowns a game. Also, consider the fact that Mariota can add value with his legs (5.9 attempts/gm for 31 yds) and he makes for an excellent GPP quarterback option that will free up plenty of salary to spend elsewhere. But also realize that he could give you a single digit performance as he has done in half of his starts this year.

Running Backs to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Alvin Kamara (DK: $8.7k | FD: $8.8k) @ CIN

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

The Saints will travel to Cincinnati this week, and with that will come a very favorable match-up for Kamara. Cincinnati allows 128.4 yds/gm rushing (7th most) at 4.9 YPA (3rd most). They’re also letting running backs catch an average of 6.4 receptions for 52.4 yds/gm out of the backfield. Worries about Ingram eating too much into Kamara’s workload can be silenced a bit, as Kamara saw the 8th highest market share among all running backs in week nine (23 touches on 70 snaps, 32.9% touch share). Ingram came in 32nd with a 14.3% touch share with his 10 touches. Kamara is the engine that makes this Saints offense thrive. He can do more damage per touch than just about anyone else in the league so if he is in line for 20+ more carries/receptions this week, along with his always extremely high redzone usage, he will once again be a stellar option.

Kareem Hunt (DK: $8.5k | FD: $9k) vs. ARI

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

If you read the newsletter last week, you’ll recognize that I’m keeping the same two plays at the top of running back pricing the same this week. Hunt gets one of the best match-ups a running back could hope for, going up against Arizona at home. The Cardinals surrender so many yards on the ground (143.1 yds/gm - 2nd most) due to most teams getting sizable leads against them and just churning down the clock with their running backs. You’d expect much of the same with Kansas City, standing at massive 16.5 point favorites. The only concern here with Hunt would be the relatively high likelihood of not having to play much later into the game when the Chiefs inevitably go up by a margin. Regardless, it would seem that 100 all purpose yards and a touchdown would be a very conservative baseline floor to predict here for Hunt.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

David Johnson (DK: $6.8k | FD: $6.9k) @ KC

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

The Cardinals will get the not so easy task of keeping up with the NFL’s best offense as they come out of their week nine bye to face the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. I’m really anxious to see how the Arizona offense looks with an extra week to get acclimated to the sort of system that new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich wants to run. There was buzz that Leftwich would look to use David Johnson in a similar fashion to how Bruce Arians did in his tenure that made DJ one of the league’s premiere offensive weapons. In his first week in the new system, Johnson saw 20 total touches on 64 offensive snaps -- a market share that equates to 31.3% and ranked 14th among all players in week eight. There’s plenty of reason to believe Johnson can have a successful fantasy day against Kansas City who allows 124.8 yds/gm on the ground at a league high 5.2 ypc. Running backs are also catching 7.3 receptions for 70.4 yds/gm against them. The offense is limited to how much Josh Rosen can force defenses to respect the pass but 20-25 touches for David Johnson is a lot more inductive for success than the majority of other players in the league.

Marlon Mack (DK: $6k | FD: $7.4k) vs. JAX

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

As mentioned above when highlighting this game as one to potentially attack for tournaments, Jacksonville has shown that they are beatable on the ground. Mack is currently questionable for this game coming out of their bye week but if he gets some full practices in, this looks like a solid spot for him at his current DFS salaries. In his last three games he has been incredible, rushing the ball for 347 yards for 6.2 ypc and three touchdowns while adding 5 catches for 54 yards and a score as well. Jacksonville is a bottom ten rush defense and struggle more against the position while on the road. Luck and the Colts should be able to move the ball effectively with an implied team total of 25 points and Mack is a great bet to get any goal line work. Keep an eye on his practice reports as the week goes on.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Duke Johnson Jr. (DK: $4.7k | FD: $5.6k) vs. ATL

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Perhaps you saw this coming from the start, but can we all just thank Freddie Kitchens for finally unleashing Duke Johnson last week? Nine targets, nine receptions, 78 yards and two scores. We shouldn’t expect many carries ever for DJJ and we have just the one game sample size under the new regime but all signs are pointing up for the fantasy viability of Duke. Also, do I need to mention to play pass catching running backs against Atlanta? Too late I guess. I know this seems a bit like chasing points but I really don’t think it should. Johnson was in on 47% of snaps last week while Chubb played 49%. Chubb will most definitely get the lion’s share of carries but the Browns now look like they are well aware of how effective Johnson has been his entire career catching the ball out of the backfield. Facing Atlanta as five point underdogs also indicates some positive gamescript for Duke. He seems like a viable play in all formats, though DraftKings with their full PPR scoring would obviously be the preferred site to target him on.

Dion Lewis (DK: $4.6k | FD: $5.8k) vs. NE

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Have the Titans come to their senses and realized that Lewis handling lead running back touches will give them the best chance to win? In their last two games, it would certainly seem that way, as Lewis has out-touched Derrick Henry 42 to 22 in that span. In week nine, Lewis was 6th in the NFL in market share after touching the ball on 33.3% of his snaps. Add into the fact that he is the preferred pass-catching back as the Titans will very likely be playing from behind and Lewis sets up very nicely this week from a value standpoint. You also can’t forget the #RevengeNarrative that Lewis will have going against his former team.

Wide Receivers to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Julio Jones (DK: $8.3k | FD: $8.7k) @ CLE

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

The touchdown drought for Julio is over and now we can move on! He now has 100+ yard performances three weeks in a row and four in the past five and is setting up to be a great option against the Browns who could be without top cornerback Denzel Ward. Ward is dealing with a hip injury and as of Wednesday he is not practicing. You should feel good about Julio this week to begin with but if Ward sits, you should feel ecstatic. We all knew the touchdowns would come eventually, considering he is leading the league with 116.6 yards receiving per game. He is also far and away the leader in total air yards with 1,269 (Hopkins is 2nd with 1,169 air yards). If you can afford him, I’d say lock and load.

Michael Thomas (DK: $8.1k | FD: $8.6k) @ CIN

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Thomas earns a second consecutive appearance in the newsletter this week after torching the Rams for 12/211/1 this past Sunday. Any hesitation about Brees playing outdoors on the road will have to be stifled because the Bengals' pass defense is some kind of awful. They are dead last in the league, allowing 319.4 yds/gm and have given talented opposing WR1's essentially a floor of 20 fantasy points. Of course, the big news around the Saints this week is the signing of infamous veteran wide receiver Dez Bryant. Any impact he has early on to Thomas’ volume, if Dez even suits up this week, should be minimal. I’d imagine even the CliffsNotes for the Saints offensive playbook would be a challenge to study up on in time for their game on Sunday. This game bolsters the highest total of the week of 54 implied points, so it makes sense to get a big piece of this game through some exposure to Thomas.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Josh Gordon (DK: $6k | FD: $6.7k) @ TEN

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Gordon had a bit of a breakout game this past week, hauling in five of ten targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. His 10 targets tied Julian Edelman for the team lead. This marks the second game in three weeks that Gordon has eclipsed 100 receiving yards and he has now played on between 80-95% of offensive snaps every week since week six. Both of his big games in a Patriots uniform have come when Rob Gronkowski has been sidelined, so despite the small sample size, this is something to consider if Gronk plays this week. Otherwise, he makes for an excellent target for tournaments, as would any tall athletic receiver catching passes from Tom Brady.

Larry Fitzgerald (DK: $5.4k | FD: $5.8k) @ KC

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

The prospects of rostering Fitzgerald in DFS this year has not been very tempting for much of this season. However, in the first game under new OC Byron Leftwich, Fitzgerald saw a season high 12 targets which he turned into 8 catches, 102 yards and a score. Even though he is in the twilight of his career, reliable Larry is fully capable of pulling off stat-lines like that. Fitzgerald leads the Cardinals with a 23.5% target share and game script certainly favors the passing game in this one as they will look to do all they can to hang with the Chiefs. The Kansas City secondary allows 302.7 yds/gm passing, so even for an inexperienced Josh Rosen he should be able to exploit this defense to a certain degree. Perhaps it’s a bit too soon to trust anyone on this offense in cash but at his current DFS salaries, Fitzgerald has shown a solid ceiling to be viable in tournaments at likely low ownership.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Maurice Harris (DK: $3.9k | FD: $5.9k) @ TB

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Sure to be one of the more popular value plays on the week, Harris certainly checks off plenty of boxes. He’s getting expanded opportunity with many of the Redskins’ receiving options hampered with injuries and last week he broke out with a huge game, catching 10 of 12 targets for 124 yards. Now he gets a dream match-up with the Bucs secondary that I’m sure everyone has heard trash talked ad nauseam. But yes… they’re bad. They’re especially bad at covering the slot, which is where Harris will see most of his work come from. Harris is a guy the coaching staff is high on ,so a concerted effort to get him the ball for a team lacking playmakers should be made.

Dontrelle Inman (DK: $3k | FD: $5.1k) vs. JAX

Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Inman profiles as a sneaky dirt cheap play I’m liking so long as Ryan Grant is out for another week (currently questionable). He is especially appealing on DraftKings where he is the stone minimum of $3,000. If Grant is out, Inman should draw a third consecutive start across from TY Hilton. He’s had another week to get familiar with the playbook, as the Colts come out of their week nine bye but in the game prior to that, Andrew Luck targeted Inman seven times, catching six for 52 yards. No amazing stat line there but it is safe to assume that Hilton will be Jalen Ramsey’s and the Jaguars secondary’s primary focus, so some extra looks could come Inman’s way. The Jags second best corner, AJ Bouye, will not suit up this week, leaving plenty of coverage from undrafted rookie Quenton Meeks for Inman to see. But again, keep an eye on Grant’s status later in the week before even considering him as a play.

Tight Ends to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Travis Kelce (DK: $7k | FD: $8k) vs. ARI

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

What can I say, if you want safety at the most volatile NFL DFS position then you have to pay the price. Kelce will almost certainly provide with a double-digit fantasy point floor and has the most upside at tight end basically every week. He’s had either 95 yards or a least one touchdown in seven of nine games this year and the Chiefs will once again look to move the ball at will against Arizona. Though, I will note that Arizona has faced another talented tight end, George Kittle, twice this year and held him relatively in check for 10 catches and 140 total yards in those two games. Of course, Kelce has Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball, so I’m not sure how much I can stack that comparison up to Kelce’s situation this week.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Jack Doyle (DK: $4.3k | FD: $5.6k) vs. JAX

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

We all know that Andrew Luck loves to pepper his tight ends with targets and the Jacksonville match-up likely keeps Doyle’s price at a slight discount. In his first game back from a hip injury, Doyle received seven targets, catching six of them for 70 yards and a score. I like Doyle to see similar target volume this week and in a murky wasteland of a position, he should carry a respectable floor.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Vernon Davis (DK: $2.8k | FD: $5.1k) @ TB

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

This is all dependent on whether or not Jordan Reed takes the field this Sunday, as he is dealing with a back injury. I know plenty of us are hoping Reed sits because we can just pay all the way down for Davis and essentially move on to focus on getting higher quality backs and wide receivers into our lineups, so we’ll just have to stay patient with news and practice reports. Hell, even if Reed does suit up, Davis might be a viable punt option considering he caught five of seven targets for 62 yards last week on just 32 snaps while sharing the field with Reed. Washington is so devoid of viable receiving threats, he should still have an impact against this Bucs defense. Alex Smith did throw a season high 46 times last week so that certainly aided in Davis’ final box score. Keep up with this situation though!

Defensive Breakdown

Los Angeles Chargers (DK: $3.5k | FD: $4.7k) @ OAK

What’s not to like about virtually any competent defense going up against the Raiders these days? They come in off a week where they were only able to muster up three measly points against the 49ers and allowed eight sacks! This Raiders football team is one of the bigger tank jobs I’ve seen in the NFL in recent memory and there’s no reason to think they’ll pose any sort of threat against a Chargers squad that they only scored ten points against in week five, while allowing three sacks and two turnovers.

Los Angeles Rams (DK: $2.4k | FD: $3.9k) vs. SEA

The Rams will face Seattle for the second time this season. I would think they’ll look to keep the Seahawks from rushing for nearly 200 yards against them this go-round. They got a slice of humble pie in New Orleans and now that they’re returning to play a game on their home field. I believe we see a more inspired defense this week. Russell Wilson is also the fourth most sacked QB in the NFL (25 sacks taken) and LAR has the talent on defense to get to him and force some sacks and errant throws.

Thursday Night Special

DJ Moore (DK: $4.7k / Showdown: $5.8k | FD: $5.5k / Single Game: $8k)

Moore was a super popular option in DFS last week and ultimately threw up quite a dud performance but it’s hard to stuff the stat sheet when you only see two targets. Christian McCaffrey also got rolling early and often with a hefty workload that resulted in two touchdowns. A couple additional scores came in the way of unorthodox rushing touchdowns from wide receiver Curtis Samuel and fullback Alex Armah. Ultimately, there were just some bad breaks that hampered Moore’s fantasy day. He still led the Panthers receivers in snaps, as he was in on 85% of offensive snaps compared to Funchess’ 73%. It’s clear that Carolina loves their rookie playmaker and will likely make a more prominent effort to get the ball in his hands on Thursday night against the Steelers. Funchess will likely be dealing with plenty of coverage from Joe Haden, who is having a very solid year. The Steelers struggle covering the slot, which is where Moore should thrive as the Panthers will look to keep pace on the road with Big Ben and company as four point underdogs.

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That’s it for week ten! As always, please hit me with any thoughts you may have on the newsletters or questions you have for the slate! Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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