Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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Week 10 already, eh? Say it ain’t so! We’re currently in the midst of the bye week apocalypse as the Patriots, Texans, Broncos, Jaguars, Eagles, and Redskins are all off licking their wounds. We’ll still be left with ten games on the main slate, but I have to say… a lot of these games look pretty ‘bland’ from a viewership perspective. Fantasy football will definitely be the primary reason many of us will be tuning into some of these match-ups. But let’s see if we can smash our cash games and possibly go out there and bink a GPP, shall we?

Week 10 match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) | 52 O/U

ARI: 23.8 implied points | TB: 28.3 implied points

ARI Off. Pace Rank: 2nd | TB Off. Pace Rank: 9th

ARI PPG For/Against: 21.7/27.9 | TB PPG For/Against: 28.8/31.5

When searching for a game worth stacking up to the brim this Sunday, this one is easy pickings. This game has the highest total of the week, both teams play at a very quick tempo, the offenses are solid, and these defense can be very fantasy friendly. It is important to note that Tampa Bay currently boasts the league’s number one run defense, allowing just 78.1 rushing YPG. But these are the 2nd (TB) and 4th (ARI) softest pass defenses, so expect an air raid throughout the afternoon on both sides of the ball. I do believe even if the Cardinals RBs can’t get much going on the ground, David Johnson and Kenyan Drake should see solid volume in the passing game, so I’m not necessarily ruling those guys out from consideration. If you’re rolling a Bucs RB, you’d have to feel better about Ronald Jones II over Peyton Barber -- but really, I think you want exposure to primary pass catchers (and their QBs) on both sides in this one.

New York Giants (-2.5) @ New York Jets | 44.5 O/U

NYG: 23.5 implied points | NYJ: 21.0 implied points

NYG Off. Pace Rank: 8th | NYJ Off. Pace Rank: 26th

NYG PPG For/Against: 19.6/28.3 | NYG PPG For/Against: 12.0/26.4

As usual, I’m throwing out a more contrarian game to target for stacking purposes with this second suggestion. So, this is sort of in the same vein as last week’s Jets/Dolphins suggestion, where some pretty good value plays ultimately came from. This game doesn’t have all the glitz and glamour of most match-ups this Sunday, but it does feature two bad defenses with a close 2.5 point spread. With a 44.5 point over/under, if we can predict around four to six touchdowns to be scored here, well then all ya have to do is find the guys who will score ‘em! Despite Saquon Barkley’s recent struggles on the ground, he’s typically worth his salary simply through the volume he sees in the passing game. Also, he’s still Saquon Barkley and even though he hasn’t broken a run longer than 20 yards since week two, we know he’s capable of housing a 50+ yard TD at any point. Injuries are pretty prevalent in this one. Evan Engram is already ruled out and it doesn’t seem like Sterling Shepard is on pace to return either. On the Jets side, we have to monitor how Le’Veon Bell’s status for Sunday shapes up as the week progresses. Major potential value could open up here on both sides.

Quarterbacks to Target

Patrick Mahomes | DK: $7k, FD: $8.4k | @ TEN

After a two game absence, Mahomes is making his return. This may be one of the better leverage spots at the quarterback position that we’ll have all season. Most people likely aren’t going to risk rolling out Mahomes in his first game back, especially when Lamar Jackson (@ CIN) is just sitting there for a couple hundred bucks more in salary. This thought process is pretty much reinforced by the “Love/Hate” ratings that LineStar users give to players throughout the week. We’re still a few days out from Sunday but, as of now, Mahomes is getting no “love” from the LineStar community. If you can get a potentially <10% owned Mahomes in any match-up, I think you’d happily take that in tournaments.

Kyler Murray | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | @ TB

Everyone saw what Russell Wilson did to this Tampa Bay secondary last week, right? In case you don’t feel like going back to check the box score, Wilson completed 29-of-43 passes for 378 yards and five TDs (while adding a 21 yard scamper). Of course, no one in their right mind is placing Kyler Murray’s talent level on the same planet as Russell Wilson. But they obviously possess similar skill-sets and all signs point to this game being a high-scoring affair. The Bucs allow the second most FPPG to QBs this season and from a pure football perspective, Murray is coming off perhaps his best game as a young professional when he went toe-to-toe with the undefeated 49ers and their vaunted defense. That game was last Thursday night so a couple extra days of preparation before heading on the road never hurt anyone, especially a young QB. I’m loving Murray as a mid-range DFS quarterback play.

Ryan Tannehill | DK: $5.1k, FD: $7.2k | vs. KC

If you really need to save some salary at position, you can’t hate on what Tannehill has done since taking over as the Titans quarterback. Tannehill leads all passers (min. 100 attempts) with a 71.8% completion rate. He’s spreading the ball around to 5+ different receivers so it might be advised to run him ‘naked’ aka don’t necessarily force yourself to stack any Titan receivers along with him. With Mahomes heading into Nashville as Tannehill’s counterpart, you can likely expect the Titans will need to pass quite a bit in order to keep themselves in the game.

Running Backs to Target

Saquon Barkley | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.6k | @ NYJ

No Evan Engram. Probably no Sterling Shepard. Barkley could see 10+ targets this week and no one would be surprised. RBs against the Jets average 25.8 DraftKings FPPG on 23.4 rushes/game and 6.6 receptions/game. Barkley has an 88.4% opportunity share out of his team’s backfield, which trails only Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette. So he should reasonably see about 25 to 30 touches this week and will have a chance to have one of his best games of the year.

Todd Gurley II | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.2k | @ PIT

Better value on DK. Imagine a world where Todd Gurley is priced below guys like Derek Henry and Jaylen Samuels. That’s where DraftKings sees him this week. Now, has Gurley deserved a price decrease? Certainly. It’s no secret he’s taken a major step back from last season. But hell, he’s still Todd Gurley and the Rams are coming fresh out of a bye week. The Steelers possess a stout run defense which allows the 6th fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. But, for the prices, Gurley is worth a shot in GPPs. With no Brandin Cooks and Jared Goff’s tendency to struggle on the road, you have to wonder about the possibility of a ceiling game from Gurley (as long as he gets the volume). It’s not the most far-fetched pipe dream.

David Montgomery | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.4k | vs. DET

They’re not doing much right in Chicago but at least they’re starting to feature their talented rookie RB a bit more. Montgomery has logged 48 touches in the last two weeks and even managed a really strong fantasy day last week against the Eagles, one of the league’s toughest front sevens. Of course, it does help your fantasy numbers when you fall into the endzone for a couple one yard touchdowns. Regardless, no one can predict touchdowns with great accuracy in any given week, but any NFL caliber running back who has a reasonable shot at 20+ touches should fare well against this Lions run defense. The Lions allow THE most FPPG to running backs and have really been torn up in recent weeks, allowing 37.3 DraftKings FPPG to the position. Tarik Cohen is still a bit of a factor but all signs point towards Montgomery being the guy to own.

Devin Singletary | DK: $5k, FD: $6.7k | @ CLE

It’s happening! Singletary out-touched Frank Gore 23 to 11 last Sunday and looked good doing it. Gore is still going to be a factor most weeks, and I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself assuming that Singletary has been given the reigns by the coaching staff. But this is inching more towards a 65/35 type split, in Singletary’s favor. The snap share from week nine would seem to back that up: Singletary - 66%, Gore - 34%. The Browns allow the 9th most FPPG to RBs this season (26.9 DK FPPG), including 32.5 FPPG in the last four weeks.

Wide Receivers to Target

Michael Thomas | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | vs. ATL

MT’s prices are starting to get a tad restrictive but the floor is insanely strong week in and week out, especially with Drew Brees back at the helm. Brees and Thomas are making a case for one of the most efficient QB/WR combos in NFL history. In Brees’ first game back from injury, Thomas caught 11-of-11 targets and he is currently second in the league with a 94.8% true catch rate. Only future HOF’er Larry Fitzgerald (95.5% TCR) rates out better. Thomas runs 72% of his routes on the perimeter, where Atlanta has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to WRs this season. He’s also had a strong career versus the Falcons, averaging a 7.5/96.2/0.5 stat line across six career games against the Dirty Birds. Thomas is rightfully placed atop the wide receiver pricing this week. With strong values at running back on this slate, I don’t believe Thomas has to be limited to only GPPs as he typically should be many weeks. Only concern here is blowout risk (NO -13).

Davante Adams | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.8k | vs. CAR

In his first NFL game in over a month, Adams was peppered by Aaron Rodgers with 11 targets. Unfortunately, he caught seven of those for just 41 yards. There was clearly some rust he needed (or may still need) to shake, but the Packers offense just wasn’t in sync pretty much all game. Adams is still dealing with that right toe injury, and apparently may have aggravated it a bit on Sunday, but assuming he plays, I wouldn’t mind throwing out Adams in some GPPs. This Green Bay offense should get off to a much better start at home against Carolina.

Golden Tate | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.3k | @ NYJ

Tate has seen 9.0 targets/game in the L4G and now, without Evan Engram (and probably Sterling Shepard), you have to figure that around nine targets will be his floor. The Jets allow the 6th most FPPG to slot WRs, where Tate aligns on 87% of his routes. Probably a better target on DraftKings, with full PPR scoring, but at some point volume simply trumps all else, so I wouldn’t necessarily rule him out from FanDuel consideration.

Christian Kirk | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.7k | @ TB

Kirk is probably the safest option to grab out of this Cardinals receiving corps. He’s garnering nearly nine targets per game this season and will face Tampa Bay, who allows THE most FPPG to wide receivers. Kirk got locked down last week but I wouldn’t put too much weight on that. Playing against a San Francisco defense and a Tampa Bay defense is going to feel like a night and day difference.

Robby Anderson | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.9k | vs. NYG

By the time Sunday’s game rolls around, we’ll be 10 days removed from Halloween. Hopefully all of those ghosts will stop haunting Sam Darnold by then. Anderson is never a ‘safe’ investment but we know the upside is absolutely there and this Giants secondary allows the 7th most FPPG to perimeter receivers, where Anderson aligns on 81% of his routes. I’ll be shocked if the Jets don’t target Anderson deep at least two or three times. Then again, this is an Adam Gase coached team so, as usual, approach with caution.

Tight Ends to Target

Travis Kelce | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.7k | @ TEN

With Mahomes presumably back, I think we have to at least consider Kelce, who is at a season-low price point on DraftKings (and near season-low on FanDuel). Kelce has seen 8+ targets in 8-of-9 games this season and looks from Patrick Mahomes clearly carry a bit more value than looks from Matt Moore. Tennessee isn’t particularly stout against TEs either, allowing the 15th most FPPG to the position.

Greg Olsen | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5.1k | @ GB

Olsen is still a pretty good candidate to see 6+ targets in any given week, as he has done in 5-of-8 games this season. He’ll likely go under-owned this week even though his match-up is a strong one. Green Bay allows the 7th most FPPG to tight ends and Carolina may very well find themselves trailing much of the day at Lambeau Field.

Mike Gesicki | DK: $3.1k, FD: $5.3k | @ IND

He’s much more ‘puntable’ at his DraftKings price point. Gesicki had his best game of the season last week, when he caught 6-of-6 targets for 95 yards while playing on 61% of snaps. The second year pro is still searching for his first career touchdown, but perhaps he may come through as a deep sleeper against a Colts team that struggles against tight ends (8th most FPPG allowed).

Defensive Breakdown

New Orleans Saints | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5k | vs. ATL

I’d expect the Superdome to be rocking in this NFC South divisional match-up that will feature the Saints as 13 point home favorites. I doubt Atlanta would get much going on the ground against the Saints 4th ranked rush defense even if they wanted to, but the Falcons lead the league passing on 71.1% of plays. More drop back for Matt Ryan (or Matt Schaub) simply equals more opportunities for picks, sacks, and defensive touchdowns.

Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. LAR

I’m going right back to the well with the Steelers this week, who still haven’t been priced up despite hitting double digit fantasy points in six consecutive games. Jared Goff is just barely completing 60% of his passes on the road this season and has five turnovers with an 82.8 QB rating. The Rams are without their primary “stretch the field” weapon with Brandin Cooks sidelines, and I believe that could play a fairly large impact if the Steelers can just play close to the line of scrimmage and blitz freely all day.

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