Top NFL Plays Week #11 | Targeting Domed Match-Ups

November 14, 2018

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS

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The NFL rolls on into week 11 and brings plenty of interesting match-ups along the way. Pretty much any fan of this league is filled with anticipation awaiting the start of the Monday Night Football game between the Chiefs and Rams. But overall, this looks like one of the more intriguing slate of games, top to bottom, that we have seen in a few weeks. Nine games this week currently have spreads of four points or less (still awaiting the CIN/BAL line as of this writing). One of the first things that stood out to me about this week is the five games that will take place inside of domed stadiums -- those games of course taking place in Indianapolis, Atlanta, Detroit, Arizona, and New Orleans. Coincidentally, four of those games are inside the top five when it comes to accounting for the highest totals on the (main ten-game) slate. Sure, this isn’t something that should be surprising, but something that could go overlooked.

Pinnacle.com did a study on scoring in the NFL between 2003 to 2015. They found that the average point totals in games taking place outdoors to be 42.4 PPG versus 46.2 PPG for games taking place inside of domes (or retractable roofed stadiums). That is right about a 9% increase in point production. In DFS that sort of scoring advantage can make a huge impact and should be taken into consideration during roster construction.

Games to Target

Carolina Panthers (-4) @ Detroit Lions | 51 O/U

CAR: 27.5 implied points | DET: 23.5 implied points

I’m always drawn to high total games that feature home underdogs. If things play out like Vegas expects, those sorts of games will often find the road team ahead but not willing to take their foot off of the gas with them being in a hostile environment, while the home team can try to mount a comeback in front of a (usually) non-hostile crowd. That scenario tends to be a recipe to a game filled with fantasy goodness. The Panthers are looking to put last week’s ignominious 52-21 defeat to the Steelers in their rear view mirror. They get to face the Lion’s 5th worst scoring defense this week, which allows 27.1 PPG. Detroit is more exploitable on the ground (132.7 ypg - 5th worst) than they are through the air (229.4 ypg - 8th best) but that pretty much fits Carolina’s offensive attack to begin with.

The Lions will want to take notes from the Steelers’ week 10 game plan. The Panthers defense currently allows 25.8 PPG (9th most). They have an exploitable secondary (258.2 ypg -- 11th worst) but are strong against the ground game (99 ypg - 9th best). Those defensive averages allowed by Carolina are actually pretty on par with Detroit’s offense this year (246.4 ypg passing, 101.1 ypg rushing). I believe we can expect Detroit to have a bit more success than they’ve had in recent weeks after a couple rough back-to-back road games against two arguably top five defenses in Minnesota and Chicago.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints (-8) | 55 O/U

PHI: 23.5 implied points | NO: 31.5 implied points

The Eagles get the tall order of taking on perhaps the league’s hottest team. Last week, New Orleans usurped Kansas City of their top spot as the NFL’s most prolific offense and are now averaging 36.7 PPG. As such, the Eagles will need to keep up. The Saints defense has been rather strong as of late, only allowing teams to score over 20 points just twice in their last six contests. However, on the season, they still have an average of 25.8 PPG allowed (9th most) and Wentz & Company are capable of keeping pace. New Orleans is best attacked through the air (296.1 ypg - 2nd worst) than on the ground (80.1 ypg - best in NFL) so the passing attack on the Philly side, unsurprisingly, gets the nod for me over their muddled backfield.

As for the Saints offense… well, lately it seems they just do whatever they please. They are incredibly balanced as they pass for 287.1 ypg (7th most) and rush for 126.8 ypg (8th most). They prey on their opponents' weakness each time out. The Eagles weakness lies in their pass defense (265.8 ypg - 10th worst) as opposed to their run defense (93.4 ypg - 7th best) but the Cowboys and Zeke Elliot exposed their run defense mightily in the latest edition of Sunday Night Football. Really, pick your poison with who to target on the New Orleans offense because all of their studs should land in your player pool this week.

Quarterbacks to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Drew Brees (DK: $6.5k | FD: $8.5k) vs. PHI

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Brees carries as much upside as any quarterback during any given week this season and the Saints high total match-up with Philly should be no different. As noted just above, the Eagles defense is much more susceptible through the air with the 10th worst pass defense. They’ve also struggled on the road at times this season and have allowed some big fantasy days for opposing quarterbacks (Fitzpatrick - 33.98 FP, Mariota - 34.36 FP). There are a few reasons why I’ll likely stick to Brees only in GPPs though. While the Eagles do possess a pretty bad pass defense, they are actually 9th in the NFL allowing just 7.2 YPA and are tied for 3rd with several teams having allowed just 12 passing scores. Brees has been ultra efficient lately and has only needed to pass for over 30 attempts once in the last five games. All of that in combination with the Saints specialty package they often roll out with Taysom Hill at quarterback, particularly near the endzone, is enough for me to realize that this could be a let down spot for Brees even if their offense scores 35+ points.

Honorable Mention:

Carson Wentz (DK: $6.3k | FD: $7.7k) @ NO

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Opposite of Brees, Wentz has been extremely steady since getting his groove back in his second start of the season in week four. Since then, he has scored between 22.7 and 25.64 (DK) fantasy points with multiple passing touchdowns in each one of those weeks and is attempting nearly 40 passes per game. He's set up to be a very reliable option and is badly mispriced on FanDuel.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Mitch Trubisky (DK: $5.7k | FD: $7.7k) vs. MIN

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Even in a tough match-up, I think it is past time that I consider Trubisky week in and week out as a top quarterback to look at for tournaments, particularly when he suits up at home. He’s averaging 32 FPPG at home this season and has shown some great rushing upside throughout the year. The Vikings are only allowing 233.3 ypg passing (12th best) but who can forget the dismantling that Jared Goff laid on them in week four to the tune of 465 yards and 5 scores? Trubisky’s explosion games aren’t going to be easily predictable any time soon but that will keep his ownership suppressed and allow for big paydays if you can land on him at the right times.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Lamar Jackson (DK: $4.7k | FD: $7k) vs. CIN

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

This is one of the more interesting situations to follow as we’re in the middle of the week. Joe Flacco is looking very iffy to suit up against the Bengals and assuming Jackson gets the start (there is some talk that RG3 is in starting consideration as well), the match-up could not get much better. Cincinnati is getting lit up this year for 313.3 passing ypg, which is the worst mark in the NFL. Even with Jackson’s relative inexperience at the NFL level, the prospects of facing this reeling Bengals defense to go along with his rushing ability would make him a very appealing fantasy asset, particularly for where he is priced at on DraftKings.

Running Backs to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Ezekiel Elliot (DK: $8.5k | FD: $8.4k) @ ATL

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Man oh man, there are so many stud RB's in great spots this week, it’s going to be tough to choose who should be favored above who. At first glance, Zeke is the option at the top that stands out to me first and foremost. It’s not a large sample size but the addition of Amari Cooper is allowing for more extended drives for the Cowboys and once they get deep into enemy territory then Elliot is the primary candidate to reach the endzone. Atlanta has been bleeding fantasy points to running backs all year and just got worked over by rookie Nick Chubb for 209 total yards and two scores. They’re allowing 5.2 ypc (2nd most) and are constantly getting burned by receiving backs for 8.4 catches and 65 ypg. Zeke can absolutely fall into the category of a “receiving back,” as he’s seeing plenty of targets this year including 18 in the last three games. This is a high floor, high upside spot for Elliot coming off his biggest fantasy game of the year.

David Johnson (DK: $7.5k | FD: $7.9k) vs. OAK

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

It may have taken until week ten of the NFL season but we finally got another taste of the 2016 David Johnson fantasy output many of you are familiar with. Johnson now has 283 yards of total offense since Byron Leftwich has taken over as the OC in Arizona and his nine targets last week was very refreshing to see. Johnson now gets a positive game script for a running back, as the Cardinals host the Raiders at home as four point favorites. Oakland has been a team we have been able to pick on with running backs throughout the year, as they allow 141 ypg rushing (3rd most) at 4.8 ypc (9th most). It’s hard not to like him in this spot this week and if he’s truly going to see the type of usage he saw in 2016, then even on a far worse offense and in a low total game, he is currently underpriced.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Kerryon Johnson (DK: $5.8k | FD: $6.2k) vs. CAR

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

After outperforming him in every way, Kerryon may have finally supplanted LeGarrette Blount from his role he had earlier in the season and on the goal line. Last week Kerryon saw 55 offensive snaps (71%) and 20 touches compared to Blount’s nine snaps (12%) and six touches (still too many). Concerns of Riddick’s return over the past two weeks affecting Johnson’s receiving opportunities have been stifled a bit as well, as he has seen a healthy 11 targets in that time frame. As I noted above, the Panthers do have a pretty strong run defense (99 ypg) but if Johnson has averaged an excellent 5.4 ypc average this year and if he sniffs 20 total touches and has truly taken over as the goal line back, then he can easily pay off this salary.

Tevin Coleman (DK: $5.3k | FD: $6.8k) vs. DAL

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

This hearkens back to my preference to target games inside domes this week (as you may have already noticed a trend with most of these selections) and Coleman is the lead running back for a team favored at home. Coleman’s usage can be a bit frustrating, as he’s only seeing about 12-15 touches the last few weeks and Ito Smith is a threat to his passing downs and redzone work, but the upside is there as evidenced by his week nine performance against Washington. Dallas is not the most favorable of match-ups, allowing just 96.7 ypg rushing (8th best) at 3.6 ypc but their track record of running backs faced isn’t very daunting. I believe Coleman can find success against Dallas even on around 15 touches and he’s explosive enough to take a quick swing pass to the house.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Dion Lewis (DK: $4.8k | FD: $5.9k) @ IND

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Lewis stiffed plenty of folks last week but I don’t think it’s time to go away from the well just yet. He still saw 22 touches on 63 offensive snaps for the Titans, which was good enough for a 35% market share that ranked 9th among all players in week ten. Much to the chagrin of anyone who rostered Lewis, Derrick Henry came in near the goal line and accounted for two touchdowns across his 11 touches (17.5% market share). Lewis still offers value if he’s to see 20+ touches against the Colts middle-of-the-road run defense that allows 107.8 ypg rushing (19th most). It was also a bit surprising for Lewis to see just two targets, considering he was on the field for 75% of snaps. I’d expect that to inch more towards the 4-6 target range if he sees similar field time this week in a game where the Titans are two point road underdogs.

Alex Collins (DK: $4.4k | FD: $6k) vs. CIN

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Collins hasn’t eclipsed 11 rushing attempts in their past three games but he’s got the goal line duties seemingly locked up after Buck Allen seemed to dominate usage in that area of the field earlier in the season. If the Ravens are forced to start Lamar Jackson (or Robert Griffin III) then it’s fair to assume that they will lean on their running game a bit more. And, again, this Cincinnati defense is one to attack. They give up 141.2 ypg rushing (2nd most) at 5 ypc. If Collins is a candidate for 15 or so rushes then we’ve seen him have a nice ceiling in certain games with similar volume towards the latter half of last season. His DFS salaries possess some quality value for someone with the touchdown upside he should carry into this week.

Wide Receivers to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Odell Beckham Jr. (DK: $8.4k | FD: $8.5k) vs. TB

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Beckham finds himself in an elite spot this week, going up against Tampa Bay’s extremely beatable secondary giving up 291.9 ypg (4th most). OBJ is a near lock for double digit targets, as he has only failed to receive fewer than 10 looks from Eli just once this season, commanding a 29.4% target share in this offense. He’s sure to be one of the most popular options on the week but it’s well within reason and should find plenty of paths to pay off his salary.

Adam Thielen (DK: $8.2k | FD: $8.6k) @ CHI

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

So Thielen had his first disappointing game of the season in the Vikings last game prior to their week 10 bye. Now, he’ll face off against the dreaded Chicago defense which is sure to drive his ownership down, but how much of a production drop off should we really expect? Thielen has only seen seven targets in each of his past two games but his 11.7 targets per game average on the season should be more of an expected range of an outcome and we can get him at a slight discount this week. He’ll make a great GPP pivot off of guys like Beckham and Thomas at the top if you're playing on a slate that includes this SNF game.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Kenny Golladay (DK: $5.8k | FD: $6.4k) vs. CAR

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Marvin Jones Jr. suffered a bone bruise in his knee in the second half of their week 10 game against Chicago and as of Wednesday, he is a non-participant in practice. Golladay would be in line for a ton of targets if Jones Jr. were to miss time. Matthew Stafford sent 13 targets his way last week, connecting on just six receptions but for 78 yards and a score. After a nice start to the season, he hit a three game skid where he caught only six passes for 98 yards in that span. But with Golden Tate shipped out of town, we’ve been waiting for Golladay to emerge even when Jones Jr. is healthy. Carolina presents itself as a solid match-up for a second consecutive strong outing for the young Lions wide receiver.

Amari Cooper (DK: $5.4k | FD: $6.6k) @ ATL

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Dallas all of a sudden looks to have a respectable passing attack the past couple of weeks with Cooper inserted into the line-up. He’s seen 18 targets in two games as a Cowboy and is clearly the first option that Dak Prescott looks to down the field. Atlanta is a dream match-up, as they allow nearly 200 yards a game receiving to the WR position and 44.6 FPPG. They’ve also been surrendering more production when at home this season and, while Zeke drives this offense, Dallas may find themselves taking advantage of the Falcons secondary and passing more, as they could very easily be trailing for much of this game. I’m loving Cooper’s floor this week.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Demaryius Thomas (DK: $4.9k | FD: $5.6k) @ WAS

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

The Texans come in off of their bye week and one would expect Thomas to have an increased role in the offense after getting some more time to learn the playbook and adjust to his new team. It’s been a pretty forgettable year for DT up until this point but with Washington likely looking to hone in on (attempting to) shut down DeAndre Hopkins, Thomas should find his windows of opportunity to connect with Deshaun Watson. Washington’s secondary has been a mess lately after surrendering 1,072 passing yards in their last three games (357.3 ypg). I’m not sure if I’m ready to roll him out in cash just yet but this will definitely be a great game to see where Thomas’ role will stand moving forward.

Michael Gallup (DK: $3.7k | FD: $5.1k) @ ATL

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I didn’t expect to highlight multiple Cowboys wide receivers when I started writing this newsletter but hey… it’s Atlanta’s defense! Gallup hasn’t exactly set the fantasy world ablaze in his rookie campaign but the addition of Cooper seems to be freeing up some more favorable coverage for him. The Falcons’ only real respectable cornerback, Desmond Trufant, should look to be lined up with Cooper for much of this game, leaving the window open for Gallup to make for a sneaky productive play in this contest if Dak gives him some looks. I think six targets could be a reasonable expectation for the rookie this week and he’s a talented athlete who can break one deep. His 18.3 average yards per reception would put him tied for 5th in the NFL alongside Josh Gordon. One deep shot is all it would take to pay off his salary.

Tight Ends to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Zach Ertz (DK: $6.6k | FD: $7.6k) @ NO

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I know the general consensus is to rarely spend up on tight end most weeks, but really when you look at Ertz’s numbers and think of his as more of a wide receiver, he should fall more into play for DFS as a steady source of production for the most volatile position. He is seeing 11.1 targets a game! The only wide receivers playing this week who see more volume are Thielen, Julio and OBJ. He’s also 8th in the NFL with 15 redzone targets and is coming off of a massive 16 target, 14 catch, 145 yard, two touchdown game in which the Eagles were playing from behind, much like they could be this week. You’re getting essentially a WR1 type play for $1,000+ less salary. Completely worth paying up for in some lineup builds if you ask me, and carries quite a bit of cash consideration.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Evan Engram (DK: $4.1k | FD: $5.8k) vs. TB

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

This is largely a match-up based selection as Engram has thus far been much harder to trust when compared to his rookie season when the Giants receiving corps was extremely depleted. He still presents some upside despite the fact that he is fourth in the pecking order when it comes to targets this year. Against Tampa Bay, the Giants should move the ball more effectively than they have all season and Engram is an athletic big body that could easily find himself on the receiving end of a touchdown in this spot.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Ricky Seals-Jones (DK: $2.9k | FD: $5.2k) vs. OAK

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★☆☆☆

RSJ saw a season high nine targets last week and gets another nice match-up against the Raiders who struggle to cover the position and allow 14.8 FPPG to TE's. He runs a bunch of routes and is worth a look, especially on DraftKings, if you’re looking to punt the position this week. Another 5 catch, 50 yard performance would do just fine.

Defensive Breakdown

Arizona Cardinals (DK: $3.1k | FD: $4k) vs. OAK

A defense at home playing against the hapless Raiders? Might as well just keep attacking them. The Cards have 4+ sacks in four of the past five games and their effort to limit Kansas City to 26 points last week should be commended. Oakland has an implied team total of 18.25 points and I would be tempted to take the under on that.

Tennessee Titans (DK: $2.5k | FD: $3.4k) @ IND

There are probably safer options to go with, but the Titans are an interesting spend down defense to target despite being on the road. Luck has attempted 31 or fewer passes in his last three games but he was throwing it pretty regularly 40-60 times a week. Tennessee has been stellar in limiting points to opposing teams and if they make Luck and the Colts play from behind, there could be a ton of opportunity for interceptions and additional sacks.

Thursday Night Special

Doug Baldwin (DK: $4.7k, $7.2k Showdown | FD: $6.3k, $8k Single Game)

Hey, listen… it doesn’t thrill me to be suggesting Doug Baldwin with the year he is having and the Seahawks run-first offense stuck in decades past. But if you’re looking to be a little different, particularly on the showdown/single game slates, Baldwin could be the ticket. He’s reported to the media recently that he finally feels fully healthy for the first time this season. Perhaps this will give Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson more confidence in sending some additional looks his way in what could turn into a bit of a shootout with the Packers on Thursday night. I think he will bust out for a 20+ fantasy point performance sooner rather than later. Predicting it will not be easy but it would sure be nice to be on board when it happens, eh?

Weekly NFL Freeroll

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That’s it for week eleven! As always, please hit me with any thoughts you may have on the newsletters or questions you have for the slate! Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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