Top NFL Plays Week #12 | Entering the Home Stretch

November 21, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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As the NFL regular season wears on, my trepidation rises. I just don’t want it to end, man! But I also love playoff football so I’m at a bit of an impasse there. Week 12 will feature 11 games on the main slate menu in what is another horribly scheduled week by the NFL. Nine games are starting up at 1:00 ET which leaves just two matches in the 4:00 ET window. My best wishes to both Scott Hanson and Andrew Siciliano as they try to entertain us on the RedZone Channels when JAX @ TEN and DAL @ NE are the only two games on for three hours. This is the final week with byes, as the Chiefs, Vikings, Cardinals, and Chargers all have the week off. It’s all 32 teams every week moving forward! Let’s kick off the home stretch with a bang!

Games to Target

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-4) | 51.5 O/U

TB: 23.8 implied points | ATL: 27.8 implied points

TB Off. Pace Rank: 6th | ATL Off. Pace Rank: 8th

TB PPG For/Against: 27.7/31.3 | ATL PPG For/Against: 22.0/26.2

The NFC South is once again a magnet for high total games. This match-up features the only 50+ point total of the week. That Bucs run defense has been stout this year but everyone has been able to pass on that secondary. Meanwhile, I’m nowhere near buying into the Falcons defense being good after holding the Panthers to three points last week. Any notable pass catcher on either side of this one feels like a high-upside target. The Falcons are dealing with some injuries, as Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Austin Hooper, and Devonta Freeman are all currently carrying ‘questionable’ designations as of Thursday. Of those, Hooper and Freeman are the two guys I think may actually miss this week’s game. This should be an uptempo game (both teams top 10 in offensive pace) which will take place inside a domed stadium, so I’d lean towards the over hitting here.

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) | 48 O/U

SEA: 23.3 implied points | PHI: 24.8 implied points

SEA Off. Pace Rank: 19th | PHI Off. Pace Rank: 23rd

SEA PPG For/Against: 27.5/25.4 | PHI PPG For/Against: 23.4/23.0

Closest spread of the week with the second-highest total and two quality offenses? Yeah, I’ll take some of this action. The Seahawks are 5-0 on the road this season yet enter the City of Brotherly Love not exactly feeling the love from the bookies, as slight underdogs. Philly is 2-3 in their last five contests but they had to deal with a really tough stretch of games: at Minnesota, at Dallas, at Buffalo, Chicago, and New England. While Seattle could be a better team than all of those guys, their defense certainly is not. They’re allowing the 10th most PPG and FPPG so I believe Philly can turn this into a shootout. When Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are forced into a more pass-happy game plan, fun things happen. There are plenty of offensive injuries in this one, with Tyler Lockett, Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Howard, and Nelson Agholor leading the way on the injury report. All of those guys really seem to be truly ‘questionable’ as their injury designations suggest. Full practices from any of them tomorrow (Friday) would likely mean they’ll suit up Sunday. However, I expect one or two of those players will sit out. Regardless of injuries, this feels like another solid game to load up on.

Quarterbacks to Target

Russell Wilson | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k | @ PHI

He’s pricey, but Russ Wilson is always a viable tournament play in games where he may be have to air it out more. It’s really just as simple as that. And that could be the case this week as Seattle goes on the road as 1.5 point underdogs. Philly’s defense also allows the fourth fewest rushing YPG (86.0) so teams tend to get forced into passing more against them. I don’t really see Wilson’s ownership being too high this week as people look to spend up on RBs and WRs, so consider him a top leverage option.

Jameis Winston | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.6k @ ATL

Somehow, Winston can account for multiple turnovers in a game yet he’ll end up producing a strong fantasy day. As of late, he has been doing that on a weekly basis. As turnover prone as he is, he’s really in no danger of getting pulled mid-game (everyone remembers the back-and-forth Winston/Fitzpatrick dance last season, right?) and you know he’ll be throwing it a ton -- especially if the Bucs fall behind. In Tampa Bay’s last five games, Winston has attempted no fewer than 43 passes and Atlanta’s defense allows 7.6 YPA -- the 6th highest mark in the league. So, all things considered, this should be another solid spot to use Winston in fantasy.

Jeff Driskel | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.3k | @ WAS

Driskel really should have been my cheap QB recommendation last week (over Kyle Allen) but I just couldn’t pull the trigger. Egg on my face. He now has two very strong starts against a pair of teams that rank inside the top 10 in fewest FPPG allowed to QBs. Washington represents a considerably softer match-up than Chicago and Dallas did, so the fantasy goodness should continue. Driskel is essentially a poor man’s Josh Allen. He isn’t a major threat to throw for 300+ yards but what he can do is add value with his rushing ability. Driskel has run 13 times for 88 yards (6.8 YPA) and a touchdown. If you need to save some salary at the QB position, I don’t mind this spot for Driskel at all.

Running Backs to Target

Alvin Kamara | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.3k | vs. CAR

Kamara had a more Kamara-like outing last week, as he ran 13 times for 75 yards (5.8 YPA) and caught all ten (!) of his targets, though for just 4.7 yards. I know he has been banged up a bit and was forced to miss some time, but it still feels incredibly odd that he has just two touchdowns in eight games. I believe the tides could turn for Kamara this week, as Carolina allows 1.8 rushing TDs/game -- easily the most in the league. The Saints are also 9.5 point favorites at home so, while Kamara isn’t a major threat to receive 20+ rushes, it’s still a favorable game script for a lead running back.

Derrick Henry | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4k | vs. JAX

More of a DraftKings play here where Henry comes in at a much better value than on FanDuel. I will admit, this does feel a bit “point chasey” considering Henry has two touchdowns in each of his last two games -- which clearly isn’t sustainable. But the Titans are a home favorite which could lead to Henry seeing another 20+ touch day. Jacksonville also isn’t really a defense to be feared anymore and they have allowed the 9th most FPPG to RBs this season.

Le’Veon Bell | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k | vs. OAK

Bell is affordable on both sites and, barring injury, he’s guaranteed to see around 20 touches. His 80.2% opportunity share is 5th among NFL running backs -- trailing only McCaffrey, Fournette, Barkley, and Henry. Not bad company to keep there. The Jets offense has actually appeared to be functional lately and they’ll have a 21.8 implied team total this week. Say the Jets score three touchdowns. What are the chances Bell accounts for at least one of those? I’d say those odds are pretty high.

Derrius Guice | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.4k | vs. DET

This probably isn’t where you want to go for cash games but Guice makes for one of the more intriguing spend down RB options this week. He found the endzone in his first game back from IR when he busted loose on a screen for a 45-yard touchdown catch and run. Sure, he only got eight touches last week but what do you expect from a running back coming off of injured reserve and playing in just his second NFL game? I think this guy is ready to showcase his talents and while Washington will manage his workload to avoid another injury, his opportunities should still continue to increase -- especially as long as Chris Thompson is sidelined. Oh, and Detroit allows the 2nd most FPPG to RBs.

Wide Receivers to Target

Mike Evans | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8k | @ ATL

If you don’t have the budget available to spend on Michael Thomas, well, I reckon Evans isn’t a bad pivot. Evans runs the majority of his routes on the left side of the field, which is where Falcons CB Isaiah Olive aligns 88% of the time. QBs are targeting receivers running against Oliver on 23% of routes, which makes him the most ‘attacked’ Falcons defensive back. Evans has shown the highest ceiling of any WR this season. In what could be a pass-happy shootout, I love this spot for the big Bucs receiver.

Calvin Ridley | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.7k | vs. TB

Sticking in the same game, how about Ridley this week? He may be a bit volatile, fantasy wise, but you absolutely have to attack this Bucs secondary nearly every week. And if you can’t pay up for Julio, Ridley just showed off his upside in an eight catch, 143 yard, one score outing against Carolina last week. Ridley’s floor likely stabilizes a bit if Austin Hooper misses another game but, regardless, he should see around 6-to-8 targets, which he can certainly turn into beaucoup fantasy points. As a reminder, Tampa Bay has allowed the most FPPG to WRs by a considerable margin.

DK Metcalf | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.7k | @ PHI

Philly CB Ronald Darby has been one of the most exploited defensive backs in the league. He’s being targeted against on 27% of his coverage snaps and Metcalf will run plenty of routes against him. Metcalf’s 12.7 yard aDOT (average depth of target) leads all Seahawks receivers and Russell Wilson is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in NFL history. Deep high quality targets against a beatable match-up -- I can dig it! Metcalf also has at least nine targets in three of Seattle’s last four games. He’s proving to be one of the bigger steals of the 2019 NFL draft.

Taylor Gabriel | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.6k | vs. NYG

Fishing for a bit of value here with Gabriel, who is coming off of a 14 target game in week 11. It’s tough to trust a guy who tries to catch passes from Mitchell Trubisky, but the match-up is pretty appealing here. The Giants have given up the 2nd most FPPG to WRs this season and their perimeter CBs (Gabriel runs 77% of his routes on the outside), DeAndre Baker and Janoris Jenkins have both really struggled this season. Chicago may actually move the ball well and score multiple touchdowns this week! Gabriel could be a solid contributor to some of that potential success.

Tim Patrick | DK: $3k, FD: $5.4k | @ BUF

I’m diving even further down the rabbit hole in search of value here. Patrick is currently questionable to play on Sunday due to a shoulder injury, but he practiced on a limited basis Thursday, so I’d say his odds of suiting up are pretty decent. Prior to getting hurt last week in their game against Minnesota, Patrick was targeted eight times, catching four of those for 77 yards. With Tre-Davious White likely shadowing Courtland Sutton, Patrick would get a plus match-up against Levi Wallace. Wallace has been the most targeted Bills CB (targeted 24% of his coverage snaps) and allows the most fantasy points to receivers playing against him.

Tight Ends to Target

Zach Ertz | DK: $6k, FD: $6.1k | vs. SEA

Ertz is finally starting to see the sort of volume he has grown familiar to in recent seasons. He now has nine targets in back-to-back games and the positive touchdown regression is only going to rise as Philly’s schedule softens up. Seattle has struggled a bit covering tight ends this season, as they allow the 9th most FPPG to the position.

Jacob Hollister | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.8k | @ PHI

Hollister has rapidly made a name for himself lately after scoring three touchdowns and catching 12-of-16 targets in Seattle’s last two games. He seems to have fully stepped into the Will Dissly role. Russell Wilson has loved throwing to his tight ends in the redzone and in a game that should be high-scoring with plenty of touchdown opportunities, Hollister could find his way to pay dirt for the fourth time in three weeks.

Noah Fant | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.1k | @ BUF

Buffalo is a very tough match-up (fewest FPPG allowed to TEs) but Fant has been the recipient of 25.4% of QB Brandon Allen’s 59 throws. Tight end is such a volatile position with very little security that any one guy that has potential to see double-digit targets has to be considered. Fant is cheap and should be viewed as a solid sleeper this week.

Defensive Breakdown

Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | @ CIN

Sure, they’re not at home and they screwed the pooch against Cleveland last week (by the way, did anything notable happen in that game?) but this is Cincinnati we’re talking about here. The Bengals are starting [checks notes] a, uh, guy named Ryan Finley. Their 16 point implied team total is the lowest among all teams this week. The Steelers should get back to thriving on defense once again and they’ve had some extra time to rest up since last Thursday’s game.

New England Patriots | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. DAL

The magic has faded when it comes to the Patriots defense but just because they’re not scoring more touchdowns than their opponent’s offenses doesn’t mean they’re a unit that should be forgotten. They still eclipsed double-digit fantasy points last week on the road in Philly and they’ll be taking the field in Foxborough this go ‘round. Dak Prescott may be leading the league in passing but no matter who you are, very few can leave Gillette Stadium unscathed -- especially late in the season.

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