Top NFL Plays Week #12 | High-Volume Backs Set to Feast 🍗

November 21, 2018

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS

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Welcome back for a holiday edition of the LineStar Weekly Pylon! What an entertaining week of football highlighted by that epic Monday Night Football heavyweight battle between the Rams and Chiefs! I’m sure ESPN execs were salivating as they twiddled their thumbs as touchdown after touchdown was scored. Week 11 also served as a reminder that high-volume, game flow independent running backs reign supreme many weeks. It’s crucial to figure out the right spots to pay up for that guaranteed workload of a bellcow running back and just find value in quarterbacks and pass catchers elsewhere. This week, as the Rams and Chiefs wrap up the bye weeks for the season, we’re jam packed with 15 games top to bottom, including the three game Thursday slate to look into. Before we get into it, I’d just like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving and safe travels for anyone hitting the highways or airways! I hope y’all enjoy the holiday with family, friends, food and maybe a few adult beverages along the way. Be sure to spend time with loved ones and don’t sweat DFS too much this week!

Quarterbacks to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Andrew Luck (DK: $6.4k | FD: $8.4k) vs. MIA

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

First off, if you’re playing a slate that includes the ATL @ NO (with a huge 60 point over/under) game, you’re definitely going to want to at least consider Drew Brees or Matt Ryan if you’re looking to pay up at the position. Those two teams combined for 80 points in their first meeting this year. But looking elsewhere, Andrew Luck has been churning out ultra steady fantasy performances largely aided by his seven game streak of tossing three or more touchdowns. You have to like his chances to keep that streak alive as the Colts’ 30 implied points rank second out of the 30 teams playing this week, trailing only the Saints. Miami is a mediocre pass defense, allowing the 14th most yards through the air at 250.3 yds/gm and they allow the 5th highest yards per pass attempt at 8.1 yds/a. That should bode well for Luck considering he has been relying more on efficiency (28 attempts/gm last four) as opposed to volume.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Jameis Winston (DK: $6k | FD: $7.5k) vs. SF

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

If it were possible to just draft the “Tampa Bay Quarterback” and soak up whatever production their passing attack produces, then they might be the most expensive option every week. They’re averaging 361 passing ypg and have 25 touchdowns on the season! So here we are with Winston back in line for the starting gig and he’ll get a home match-up with the 49ers 15th ranked pass defense allowing 242 ypg. This game also features the second highest total of the week (highest on the main slate) of 54.5 points and the Bucs have a very healthy implied team total of 29 points. The Buccaneer defense is not equipped to slow down anyone, so expect plenty of passing from Winston throughout the game. Of course, the obvious drawback is the threat of another mid-game QB shuffle back to Ryan Fitzpatrick if Winston comes out and turns the ball over early and often. Jameis is a fringe cash play due to that risk but makes for a great GPP option.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Lamar Jackson (DK: $5.7k | FD: $7.4k) vs. OAK

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

This is another interesting quarterback conundrum to dissect this week. As I’m typing this, I just got the notification on my phone telling me that Ravens HC John Harbaugh has said “it would be tough for Joe Flacco to play this week,” so Lamar Jackson should be in line for another start. He turned in a very college-esque quarterback performance after rushing for 117 yards on 27 carries (most attempts by any quarterback in 65 years) and completing 13 of 19 passes for 150 yards and an interception. The fact that he scored 19.7 (DraftKings) fantasy points without accounting for an offensive touchdown bodes well for future fantasy production, especially considering this match-up with Oakland isn’t exactly a scary one. I’m more interested in him at his price on DraftKings and you have to almost consider him to have a rushing floor of a mid-range RB2 with the passing upside of a quarterback on around ~20-25 attempts.

Running Backs to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Melvin Gordon III (DK: $8.6k | FD: $8.9k) vs. ARI

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Gordon is a double-digit home favorite who should see 15-20 rushes and 4-8 targets against a very vulnerable Cardinals run defense. He has as much multi-touchdown upside as anyone else at the position this week. Sign me up! The Cardinals surrender 141.5 rushing ypg (4th most). Much like how Saquon and Zeke were in dynamite spots last week among the stud tier RBs, this feels like a similar situation for MG3. There's not much that I really feel I need to say about him besides that he should make for a fantastic safe play despite the high salary.

Alvin Kamara (DK: $8.3k | FD: $8.9k) vs. ATL

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Kamara sets up to be the premiere Thanksgiving Day stud that I believe you’ll want on your rosters. Of course Mark Ingram wasn’t in the equation during the Saints’ last match-up with the Falcons but it’s hard to forget his TWENTY TARGET game from week three. I mean, this man scored 37 DraftKings points without finding the endzone. Nutty. The Saints are pretty set on being aggressive even in blowouts but if Atlanta can hang around long enough and make New Orleans stay hyper-aggressive, then Kamara, as perhaps the league’s most dynamic player, stands to have another monstrous performance. As I point out most weeks, Atlanta is getting scorched by pass-catching RB's, as teams have targeted their backs against them 112 times this year accounting for 93 receptions for 815 yards and 5 TD's. In total, they allow 175.7 ypg combined to RB's, so there is plenty of meat on the bone for both Kamara and Ingram to feast on Thanksgiving Day.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Matt Breida (DK: $5.7k | FD: $6.4k) @ TB

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

There are a lot of interesting decisions to be made when it comes to the mid-range of running back pricing. I’m having a tough time not liking Breida in this spot against Tampa Bay. He’s clearly their best weapon out of the backfield but his issue, as it has been much of his career, is staying healthy. He should be fresh coming off of their week 11 bye after his best fantasy performance of the year that took place in week 10. As previously mentioned, this game has a very high total of 54.5 points and Breida should be the preferred option in handling the majority of carries and seeing the most passing downs work. This will be QB Nick Mullens’ third start so we don’t have a major sample size on him but it’s no secret that young, inexperienced quarterbacks have a tendency to check down passes to their shifty tailbacks. In a game that could turn into a bit of a shootout, I’m liking Breida’s projected involvement against a Bucs' defense that allows 30.6 FPPG to opposing running backs.

Dalvin Cook (DK: $5.4k | FD: $6.3k) vs. GB

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

This is more of a contrarian GPP pivot, as we’ve yet to see Cook breakout in any game this season. Despite a lack of production in the game, his 88% snap count last week against the vaunted Bears defense should indicate that Minnesota is fully prepared to give him bellcow-like touches. Cook is an RB1 talent that has obviously been plagued by injuries but I’m confident that he can have a breakout game at any moment and he flashed that ability with a 70-yard run against Detroit in week nine. The Vikings find themselves at home as 3.5 point favorites in a crucial divisional match-up with the Packers on Sunday Night Football. Cook will be vital to Minnesota’s postseason hopes, so it only makes sense that they’ll look to get him going as the season enters into the home stretch.

💲 Low Salary 💲

LeSean McCoy (DK: $4.2k | FD: $6k) vs. JAX

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Okay, yes, this is an ugly play on the surface but seriously… $4,200 & $6,000 for Shady in a featured role? Never thought I’d see the day. Buffalo has had some additional time to prepare for this sure-to-be low-scoring game with the Jaguars coming off their week 11 bye and McCoy just had his best game of the season after handling 26 carries for 113 yards and two scores in week 10. The Bills sit at just three point underdogs at home so there is a decent chance that game script could fall in McCoy’s favor once again. The Jaguars are, of course, a very solid defense but they’re middle of the pack in terms of run defense -- 109.3 ypg allowed (15th in NFL). At his current DFS salaries, Shady is definitely in play for tournaments, as he could easily see 20+ touches here with some solid involvement in the passing game.

Elijah McGuire (DK: $3.6k | FD: $4.9k) vs. NE

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

I’m going to continue to have some sort of McGuire exposure in tournaments each week until it pays off! As a versatile pass catcher, he should be the favored option to see the majority of snaps in games the Jets are trailing. Against a pissed off Patriots team coming out of a bye week after an embarrassing loss to the Titans, I have a feeling that McGuire sees the field sooner rather than later in this game. Since returning from the IR, he has led the Jets RB's with a 57% snap count in their last game in week 10 and saw 55% of snaps in week 9 and has 11 targets in that span. This Jets offense lacks major playmakers but McGuire is one of the lone capable athletes that can pose a threat to NFL defenses.

Wide Receivers to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Antonio Brown (DK: $8.7k | FD: $8.5k) @ DEN

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

AB has made far fewer appearances in these newsletters than I would have first predicted at the start of the season but it isn’t like he has had a bad season up to this point by any means. Perhaps after riding James Conner pretty heavily for much of the season with the thought that Le’Veon Bell would be returning (now obviously not the case), the Steelers may opt to limit Conner’s workload a bit and turn to their passing attack more. Brown is still averaging a very healthy 11 targets per game and has failed to find the endzone just once all season. As the NFL’s third highest targeted receiver, volume hasn’t been a major issue for Brown but his 56.9% catch rate this year is a far cry off of his 65.4% career average. Assuming positive regression is in order in that department and he’s a candidate to see double-digit targets every week with better odds than not to score a touchdown, he looks like an appealing DFS option to me despite the Steelers traveling on the road to Denver.

Julio Jones (DK: $8.3k | FD: $8.8k) @ NO

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

As if it were any surprise, the touchdowns have been rolling in for Julio lately as he’s cracked the endzone in three consecutive games while catching for 100+ yards in five straight. It’s not a bold call to say that the Falcons will need a huge game from him once again on Thursday night. Julio owns a 29.5% target share for Atlanta and you could bet the house that he’ll see double digit looks from Matt Ryan in this high-octane showdown, and 15+ targets is well within the realm of possibilities. The Saints defense has improved quite a bit in the last month or so but they’re still allowing 194.8 yards receiving to wide receivers in their last four games (216.3 ypg avg. on the season). They held Julio (relatively) in check in their first meeting, limiting him to just 96 yards on 5 receptions but that would have to be looked at as his absolute floor this week.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Josh Gordon (DK: $6.4k | FD: $6.8k) @ NYJ

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Gordon’s 22 targets across the Patriots’ last two games can be directly correlated with the absence of Gronkowski, who is looking likely to suit up this week, but I just get the feeling that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will come out of the bye week looking to make a statement and play very aggressively. Teams like the Chiefs, Saints and Rams are stealing all the hype and headlines as the Patriots are seemingly outside that top tier of teams for the first time in years. Is Belichick really that prideful of a man to care about that sort of thing? I don’t know… it’s tough to tell what goes on behind those dead eyes and that monotonous vocal fry but one thing is for sure -- the Jets pass defense is a bad one. Josh Gordon can be a match-up nightmare for this secondary and should be as integrated as ever into this offense after having even more time to learn the playbook over the bye week. His chances at 10+ targets may dip this week if Gronk plays but the quality of his targets could easily rise.

Tyler Boyd (DK: $6k | FD: $6.8k) vs. CLE

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

This play hinges mostly on whether or not AJ Green plays this week -- if he plays, I like Boyd to regain his early/mid-season success. In the last two games without Green, defenses have been able to focus on shutting down Boyd since the Bengals are without any other proven threats. If Green does in fact play, it could largely be in a bit of a decoy role, leaving Boyd to see high volume against softer coverage. Cleveland isn’t exactly a stout pass defense to begin with, as their 287.6 ypg allowed through the air represents the 3rd highest average in the league. I’d expect people to be way off of Boyd regardless this week and his DFS salaries are back to a range where I’m far more comfortable taking a shot on him.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Golden Tate (DK: $4.8k | FD: $6.5k) vs. NYG

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Even though virtually everything about their game versus the Saints was a disaster, Tate saw a massive snap percentage increase from the week prior. He went from a 29% snap count in week 10 against the Cowboys to 71% last week and saw a respectable eight targets from Carson Wentz. The defending Super Bowl champs are skidding on a four game losing streak and are in desperate need of a win at home. They’ll get a solid chance against the Giants as six point favorites with an implied team total of 26 points. The Giants are allowing 174.9 ypg to wide receivers in the last nine weeks (23rd in NFL) and should represent a nice bounce back spot for this offense. Tate is still a bit too risky to trust in cash but the Eagles will need him to step up for this offense if they have any hope to make a playoff run. If he sees 75+% of snaps this week, he could very well turn in some nice numbers in the box score.

Bruce Ellington (DK: $3.2k | FD: $5k) vs. CHI

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Funny enough, I’m going from talking about Golden Tate to talking about the guy that may be overtaking Tate’s former role in Detroit's offense (okay, not really that funny). The Lions offense is hurting, as they will be without Marvin Jones Jr. once again this Thursday as well as lead tailback Kerryon Johnson. Last week Ellington, who signed with the team earlier in the month, made his first start as a Lion and played on 33 offensive snaps (51%) and saw nine targets, catching six for 52 yards. I’d expect the Bears to focus heavily on stopping the only major threat for Detroit, Kenny Golladay, and this should open some more favorable coverage for Ellington who is priced at the near minimum salary on both sites. Keep an eye on his status though, as he is currently questionable with a back issue but has been getting limited practices in throughout the week.

Tight Ends to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

George Kittle (DK: $6.2k | FD: $7.5k) @ TB

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Oof, tight end continues to be the most frustrating aspect of NFL DFS. I mentioned Ertz in this spot last week and even considered him viable for cash, even though I traditionally won’t look to spend up at the position and naturally, he comes away with a two catch, 15 yard performance. But Kittle has been about as consistent of a fantasy tight end as you could hope for and gets a stellar match-up with the Bucs who allow the second most FPPG to the position. He should be the safest bet if you’re targeting a 49ers pass catcher and he has all the physical tools to dust this secondary.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Cameron Brate (DK: $3.6k | FD: $4.4k) vs. SF

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

This is likely your no-brainer "set it and forget it" chalk tight end of the week, as teammate OJ Howard has been placed on season ending IR, leaving Brate as the primary beneficiary to soak up his targets. Tampa Bay ranks 12th in the NFL passing to tight ends on 20% of throws so with no other real competition, Brate should see some healthy numbers moving forward.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Chris Herndon (DK: $2.9k | FD: $5.3k) vs. NE

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Herndon is more expensive than Brate on FanDuel so this doesn’t really apply there but if you’re really scrounging for a few hundred dollars extra and need to punt at tight end on DraftKings, then Herndon has a nice DvP match-up. The Patriots allow the 7th most FPPG to tight ends and have allowed the second most touchdowns to the position with seven. Herndon should play on around 65-75% of snaps as the Jets will likely be trailing much of this game. He’s not the worst punt, as he’s caught at least three passes OR a touchdown in five straight games.

Defensive Breakdown

Buffalo Bills (DK: $2.7k | FD: $4k) vs. JAX

The Ravens, Jaguars, Patriots, Bears and Chargers all make for completely fine and safer DST plays but they’re on the pricier side for the most part. The Bills are priced down enough to where they can be considered at home versus Blake Bortles and the Jags. They really just have to worry about slowing down Leonard Fournette and force Bortles to drop back as much as possible. Regardless, the Bills DST should hold a safe floor as this game easily has the lowest total of the week with 37 implied points.

Denver Broncos (DK: $2.3k | FD: $3.3k) vs. PIT

This is more of a cheap contrarian GPP defense but Ben Roethlisberger does have nine turnovers in five road games this year and has thrown for 36+ pass attempts in every game but two. There should be plenty of opportunities for the Broncos secondary to have a shot at interceptions and of course any one of those could get returned to the house.

Weekly NFL Freeroll

Congrats to last week's freeroll winners!

1st: Cmbetzen | 179.84 points

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3rd: Jbjork86 | 172.1 points

We’ll be hosting a weekly NFL freeroll on DraftKings so remember to join!

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That’s it for week twelve! As always, please hit me with any thoughts you may have on the newsletters or questions you have for the slate! Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week and enjoy the holidays! 🦃

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