Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS

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Week 13 in the NFL always feels like a pivotal point in the season. Most of us in season long leagues are gearing up for the final week of the fantasy regular season (and hopefully looking towards the playoffs), bye weeks are over and all 32 teams are back in play, and divisional/wild card races are neck-and-neck in many spots. It’s pretty much the “put up or shut up” part of the year for the players, coaches, and all of us weirdos who obsess over the fantasy aspects of the game. So with a full 16-game slate on the ticket this week, let’s jump right into it!

Games to Target

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 56.5 O/U

CAR: 30 implied points | TB: 26.5 implied points

The first time these teams met in week nine they combined for 70 points, so it’s no surprise this game carries the highest total of the week. This is a good spot to find plenty of plays viable for both cash and GPP formats. These two teams have very solid offenses and exploitable defenses (though, Tampa Bay more so of course). Tampa Bay leads the NFL in total offense, averaging 454.3 ypg and are centered very heavily on their pass game as you may be aware of (355.8 passing ypg leads the league by far). Carolina has the 6th best run defense (96.4 ypg) but allow the 11th most passing yards (260.1 ypg) so this plays into the Bucs strengths rather well. Carolina is more centered around the run, as they are 3rd in the league in rushing (138.4 ypg). Tampa Bay is beatable at each level of their defense and allow the 6th most total yards (391 ypg). This is a divisional game where things can sometimes get a bit dicey but I’d still be shocked if this isn’t among the top two or three highest scoring contests by the end of the week. I expect the Bucs to keep things a bit closer than their first match-up with the Panthers now that they’re playing on their home turf.

Kansas City Chiefs (-15) @ Oakland Raiders | 55.5 O/U

KC: 35.25 implied points | OAK: 20.25 implied points

I think a couple guys in this game can be cash viable but for the most part, considering the blowout risk, you’re more likely to land on more plays in the range for GPP viability. Not like it’s a secret but Kansas City’s offense is elite and they’re averaging 36.7 ppg. Oakland allows the 3rd most ppg with 29.7. The Chiefs hitting the 35 point mark seems like a certainty, so you’ll want exposure to some of these guys. The Raiders likely play the catch-up game early on. They should be able to sustain some drives throughout the game as the Chiefs allow the 3rd most yards (414.7 ypg) and surrender 26.7 ppg. Who on this Raiders team has scoring upside would largely just be a wild guess, but their primary guys are priced down for the most part and one or two will almost certainly provide some sort of value in tournaments and at low ownership.

Quarterbacks to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Jared Goff (DK: $6.4k | FD: $8.4k) @ DET

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Mahomes and Newton are probably the most enticing options when looking at the high dollar passers, so perhaps Goff flies a bit under the radar this week. His home/road splits have been pretty extreme this year as he averages 30.8 FPPG at home and 19 FPPG in away games. Though, two 40+ fantasy point performances at home against Minnesota and Kansas City skews that a sizable amount. The fact that this game is in a dome gives me a bit more confidence in Goff’s floor and upside. It wasn’t long ago when he passed for 391 yards and three touchdowns in another road game inside of a dome against New Orleans. Detroit’s pass defense is decent but not elite. The Rams have had two weeks to prepare for this game coming out of a bye week and have their usual hefty implied team total that sits at 32.25 points. As long as Gurley doesn’t run in three or four touchdowns (always possible), Goff seems like a solid choice to me if you’re spending up at the position.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Jameis Winston (DK: $6k | FD: $7.5k) vs. CAR

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Going back to the well here for a second consecutive week as the Bucs passing attack is too productive to ignore. The Bucs 355.8 passing ypg is clear of the second place team (Pittsburgh) by over 30 yards! Of course, the risk with Winston is a potential mid-game benching if he starts turning the ball over. However, with this game being at home, I believe a bit of that risk is mitigated somewhat. Winston has played solid in his two home starts this season, going 2-0 (against Cleveland and San Francisco last week), averaging 338.5 yards passing and 39.5 yards rushing with three total scores. He went turnover-free for the first time all year last week. The odds of that happening again are slim but let’s just hope he doesn’t get too careless with the ball. I love his chances to eclipse 300 yards again this week with a two touchdown floor with some rushing yardage value mixed in. It makes my palms a little sweaty but at this point in the week I’m trusting Winston in all formats.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Marcus Mariota (DK: $5.2k | FD: $7k) vs. NYJ

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Despite a losing effort on Monday Night Football, Mariota put up a really nice game statistically after getting knocked out of the previous game with a neck stinger. He completed 22 of 23 passes (95.7%!) for 303 yards and two scores while adding 28 yards rushing on six attempts. If that game wasn’t on Monday night after DFS salaries are already released for the following week, Mariota likely gets a decent price bump for that performance. But he remains priced around guys like Case Keenum and Josh Allen and he gets a pretty cushy match-up at home against the Jets' very beatable defense. The Titans have a solid implied team total of 25 points. In three starts for Mariota this season where the Titans scored 25 or more points, he is averaging 27.16 (DraftKings) fantasy points. Nice value to be had here, particularly on DraftKings.

Running Backs to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Christian McCaffrey (DK: $8.8k | FD: $8.8k) @ TB

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I hate to look like I’m point chasing after his 100/100 game last week but goodness gracious… what a game! Now he’ll get a Bucs defense who he exploited just a few weeks ago for 157 total yards and two scores. CMC is just such a major part of this offense and he leads the league by a very sizable margin in snap count as he is on the field for a whopping 97% of offensive plays! Next closest would be Zeke Elliot (89.1%) and Todd Gurley (84.6%). The floor is strong with McCaffrey with 13.6 being his lowest DraftKings score on the year and 10.1 for FanDuel. He’s the league’s third most targeted running, back seeing 7.5 targets/game and has eclipsed 30+ fantasy points in three of the last four weeks. He certainly has a great shot to accomplish that again in Tampa Bay.

Saquon Barkley (DK: $7.9k | FD: $8.6k) vs. CHI

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Sure, the match-up with Chicago is not ideal but Barkley may have to fall in the category of “match-up proof” and as such, we get him at a bit of a discount this week. If freaking LeGarrette can get nearly 100 yards rushing against this defense then surely Barkley can find a way to have success. Regardless, he isn’t overly reliant on rushing volume, as he’s seen 14 or fewer carries in six of eleven games and has still produced. This, of course, is due to seeing 7.9 targets per game (2nd in NFL among RBs) and he rarely comes off the field with an 84.5% snap percentage (4th among RBs). Even if he struggles a bit on the ground, Barkley should see plenty of dump-offs from Eli who could be under duress in a hurry on a lot of plays. Barkley dominates redzone usage for the Giants so he has as much upside to score a touchdown or two as nearly any other week. 

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Aaron Jones (DK: $6.7k | FD: $7.6k) vs. ARI

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Why it took Mike McCarthy so long to give Aaron Jones a featured role, no one knows. Jones has been on a tear the last three weeks, accounting for 368 all-purpose yards (122.7 ypg) and has five touchdowns. He’s played on 75%, 90% and 74% of snaps in that span of games as well to go along with at least five targets each week. We’ve been targeting running backs against Arizona all year and it tends to work out. They give up 36.5 FPPG on the road to running backs this season. With Green Bay being 14 point home favorites, we could see a ton of AJ in this one.

Matt Breida (DK: $5.8k | FD: $6.4k) @ SEA

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

The more casual player might see a match-up with Seattle and still expect them to be a tough match-up but they’ve been a pretty exploitable defense as of late. They’re giving up 28 PPG in their last four games and have been tuned up pretty good to opposing running backs The Seahawks are getting gashed for an NFL worst 5.3 ypc this season. Breida had a solid outing last week (20 pts DK/15.5 pts FD) despite the San Francisco offense only scoring nine points. He’s averaged 5.8 ypc this year so he doesn’t necessarily need workhorse-like touches to produce in this spot and he should maintain solid involvement in the passing game. I feel like he may go a bit under-owned this week and could be cash viable but I love him for tournaments.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Jalen Richard (DK: $4.3k | FD: $4.8k) vs. KC

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Considering his touchdown equity is pretty low, Richard is likely more of a DraftKings play with the full PPR scoring. He’s coming off of a pretty low usage game on the road in Baltimore so I expect people to not be too interested in him, but he’s the preferred passing downs back over Doug Martin and should see some solid targets against Kansas City. The Chiefs allow the third most receptions to running backs (7.1 rec/game) and second most yards (70.2 rec. ypg). If there’s a reasonable guy to target on Oakland, I believe Richard is that player. He also averages +4.1 FPPG at home (12.2 FPPG) as opposed to on the road (8.1 FPPG). Could be a bit of a dart throw but there’s always potential that Richard can bust a decent run off a screen for his first touchdown of the year.

Carlos Hyde (DK: $3.3k | FD: $5k) vs. IND

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

The big question for the Jags' backfield this week with Leonard Fournette being suspended is whether to target TJ Yeldon or Carlos Hyde? Although I’m not super confident in the call, I will lean towards Hyde seeing the higher amount of touches and goal line work. Yeldon out-snapped Hyde last week 24 to 15 but Hyde saw 10 touches (all rushes) to Yeldon’s five (three rushes, two receptions). Jacksonville has a surprisingly not terrible team total of 21.75 points with Cody Kessler taking over the starting job from Blake Bortles so they’re expected to put up some scores at home against the Colts. Indy has the 12th best run defense, allowing just 106.4 rushing ypg at 4.0 ypc so it may be tough sledding for Hyde. Though, if he has potential for 15-20 carries with some touchdown upside, he’ll be worth a shot as a tournament flyer.

Wide Receivers to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Tyreek Hill (DK: $9.1k | FD: $8.4k) @ OAK

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

It’s tough to ever trust Tyreek for cash considering he’s about as likely to give you 10 points as he is 30+ but he’s certainly an elite tournament play every week. Hill likely draws a lot of coverage from Gareon Conley who is having a nice season but is ill-equipped to stick with Hill every play. The Raiders, as a team, are last in the league, allowing 8.8 yards per pass attempt. This is bad news when facing one Patrick Mahomes who averages 9.3 ypa. The blowout risk is pretty substantial here so you may need Hill to do his damage in only two or three quarters. Completely viable but there’s some inherent risk.

DeAndre Hopkins (DK: $8.2k | FD: $8.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Hopkins had his five game touchdown streak snapped on Monday night but will draw a favorable match-up with the Browns this week. He will see a fair bit of Denzel Ward who is having a terrific rookie campaign but Hopkins has schooled many’a cornerbacks that would fall in the elite range of CB rankings. Deshaun Watson isn’t passing a ton after attempting no more than 25 passes in his last six games, but the good news for Hopkins is that he absolutely dominates the Houston target share to the tune of 33.7%. Hopkins, after opening the year with five straight games with double-digit targets, has seen just one such game in the last six weeks and the Demaryius Thomas addition may limit his touchdown upside a bit, so he’s more of a GPP play for me. But in the off-chance that Watson chucks it around 40 times in this game, then Hopkins should have one of his patented “boom” weeks.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Emmanuel Sanders (DK: $6.3k | FD: $7k) @ CIN

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I’m expecting Manny to be one of the more popular mid-range receivers this week after he broke free of a little three-game fantasy scoring drought last week against Pittsburgh as he saw 12 targets, catching seven for 86 yards and a score. Now he gets to face-off with a Cincinnati defense that hasn’t shown the ability to stop anyone. Sanders should have a solid shot at 10+ targets once again and should offer a nice floor this week.

TY Hilton (DK: $6k | FD: $7.6k) @ JAX

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Hilton would be set up for a date with top cornerback Jalen Ramsey this Sunday but Ramsey hasn’t been practicing due to a knee injury and there’s heavy concern that he misses this week. That would boost Hilton’s upside quite a bit and make him somewhat of a sneaky DFS play if a large portion of people aren’t aware of the Ramsey news. Hilton has had two great weeks back-to-back, accounting for 280 yards and two scores on 16 catches in that span. Andrew Luck extended his hot streak of throwing for 3+ touchdowns to eight games last week and with another pass catching weapon in Jack Doyle being sent to IR, Hilton should maintain a large role moving forward. Hilton isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, so keep an eye on his status, but the speculation is he could just be getting a veteran’s rest day. If he plays and Ramsey misses this game, I love him as a lower owned GPP upside play.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Courtland Sutton (DK: $4.2k | FD: $5.4k) @ CIN

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Sutton is an interesting tournament pivot off of someone like Adam Humphries, who I like this week but expect to be pretty chalky. Sutton hasn’t exactly taken on the expanded role that many thought he would have after Demaryius Thomas left town but, as mentioned with Sanders, this is a dream match-up with a soft defense. All the interest on Sanders should drive Sutton’s ownership down even further as well. Prior to last week’s dud of a game (one catch for 14 yards on four targets), he was averaging 71 yards receiving in the three games prior. He’s a big play threat playing with a quarterback who isn’t known for making big plays. But my feeling is that Sutton has a breakout game coming his way soon and the Bengals match-up seems like a good spot for it to happen.

Bruce Ellington (DK: $3.5k | FD: $4.9k) vs. LAR

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

The big game upside isn’t really there for Ellington but he’s seeing some nice volume on a depleted Lions receiving corps with Marvin Jones Jr. on IR and Golden Tate now playing for Philly. The Rams are set to get top cornerback Aqib Talib back this week and there’s reasonable expectation that he covers Kenny Golladay for much of this contest -- thereby possibly sending more looks Ellington’s way. Ellington has seen 16 targets in the two games he has started since signing with Detroit and should continue to see some solid volume as the Lions will look to keep pace with the Rams' elite offense.

Tight Ends to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Rob Gronkowski (DK: $5.4k | FD: $6.7k) vs. MIN

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Is Gronk back? Maybe. He still looks a half step slower out there but his 34 yard touchdown catch last week was very encouraging to see. He may not be able to move like he could in his prime but he is still capable of physically dominating smaller cornerbacks and linebackers in coverage. He has been removed off the Patriot’s injury report and is practicing in full as of Wednesday. A healthy discounted Gronk playing in Foxborough is always worth a look in tournaments despite a pretty tough match-up with Minnesota who allows the 14th fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Eric Ebron (DK: $4.2k | FD: $5.6k) @ JAX

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Ebron and Brate are kind of 1A and 1B when it comes to the top options in the mid-range of tight end pricing. Brate gets a match-up with the Panthers who allow the most fantasy points to tight ends. But at the same time, Ebron is just a touchdown scoring machine with 12 on the season. Jacksonville isn’t really a scary match-up for tight ends either. They allow the 17th most points to the position but their seven touchdowns allowed ranks as the third most in the league. He is another guy to keep an eye on because, as of Wednesday, he is not practicing due to a back issue. But, as mentioned with Hilton, it may just be more of a maintenance day.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Gerald Everett (DK: $2.9k | FD: $4.8k) @ DET

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Everett has taken on a bit of an expanded role, particularly in the redzone, over the last few games. This injury to Cooper Kupp could easily be the reasoning behind that since he was such a vital part of the redzone offense. Everett is a physically gifted tight end and it’s hard not to like any viable piece of this Rams' offense. I really don't mind him for cash if you need the savings.

Defensive Breakdown

Los Angeles Rams (DK: $2.6k | $4.1k) @ DET

The Bears are the obvious top, but when looking to save a bit, the Rams make sense and I’m anxious to see what sort of impact Talib can have on this unit as a whole. The Lions are pretty hobbled at the moment and don’t have a ton of weapons to scare me off of playing the Rams defense, especially if Kerryon Johnson misses another week. The Lions are 10 point underdogs so we could see plenty of pass attempts from Stafford which leads to more interceptions and sacks, and of course, a higher chance of getting one of those elusive defensive touchdowns.

Kansas City Chiefs (DK: $2.5k | $4.3k) @ OAK

The Chiefs should be a popular option as well, as picking on Oakland with DST’s has been the low-hanging fruit lately. It works out more often than not as evidenced by this tweet from Evan Silva.

Thursday Night Special

Cole Beasley (DK: $3.9k/$4k Showdown | FD: $5k/$8.5k Single Game) vs. NO

It’s always tricky finding that sneaky Thursday night player for the single game contests but perhaps it’s Beasley this week. The slot receiver playing against New Orleans has been a pretty popular DFS play for much of the season, as PJ Williams has been beat quite a bit this year as the Saints’ slot cornerback. No one has stopped the New Orleans offense this year so we can expect a more pass heavy approach from Dallas this week. Beasley has a solid shot at around seven or eight targets as the Saints will see last week’s Cowboys/Redskins game and realize that stopping Amari Cooper should be a top priority. I don’t LOVE this play but in theory, it makes sense.

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That’s it for week thirteen! As always, please hit me with any thoughts you may have on the newsletters or questions you have for the slate! Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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