Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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Thanksgiving week is upon us and with it comes a fully loaded week of football! Sure, you should prioritize spending time with family and friends this week, that is a given. But after you’ve gotten your fill of turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes, and conversation with your crazy uncle, there’s nothing wrong with sneaking away to the most seldom used TV in the house to kick back and watch some gridiron action. We’ll be previewing the three game Thanksgiving slate as well as Sunday’s main slate in this special edition of the Weekly Pylon so, without further adieu, let’s get this one rolling!

Thanksgiving match-ups:

Sunday main slate match-ups:

Thanksgiving Slate Breakdown

Perhaps these aren’t the sexiest trio of games you could ask for but it is certainly a solid one. The day will kick off with the Bears at Lions, which may not have a high total (38.5 O/U) but it does carry the closest spread of the day (CHI -3.5). From a pure football perspective, the Bills at Cowboys game is probably the match-up I’m most looking forward to. This is really a ‘measuring stick’ sort of game where we’ll get a real idea of who is a legitimate playoff contender and who is simply a pretender. Finally, the night will wrap up with an NFC South clash with the Saints at Falcons. This is the game that will probably garner the most DFS attention, and rightfully so. The total sits at 49 points and there is a ton of offensive talent on both sides. Atlanta pulled off the pretty surprising upset over New Orleans in their own building just three weeks ago. I highly doubt we’ll see a score similar to that 26-9 Falcons win and I’m sure Sean Payton will be looking to exact some revenge and further solidify their place atop the division.

Quarterbacks to Target

Josh Allen | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.8k | @ DAL

If you’re looking for safety, Drew Brees (DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.5k) is probably your best bet. However, Josh Allen has not been a slouch himself and has scored the 7th most fantasy points among QBs this season. He possesses what is one of the most valuable commodities in fantasy football: rushing ability as a quarterback. He has nearly 400 rushing yards this season (35.2 YPG) and seven rushing touchdowns (most among QBs). Dallas does allow the 8th fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, but if the Bills are forced to play ‘keep up’ with the league’s top offense on a YPG basis, then Allen could certainly show out for one of his ceiling games.

Mitch Trubisky | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.8k | @ DET

If you’re getting a bit risky and spending down at the position, Trubisky may turn in a perfectly acceptable fantasy day against Detroit, as he checks in as the cheapest starting Thanksgiving day QB on both sites. The Lions defense has not been a unit to shy away from, as they’ve allowed the 8th most FPPG to quarterbacks this season, including 26.4 DKFP per game at home. Trubisky may have had only 173 yards passing against Detroit in week 10, but he was efficient, completing 69.6% of his passes with three touchdowns. Perhaps he doesn’t toss three scores again, but I’d expect an increase in yards and, as he showed last week, he is capable of adding some value with his legs.

Running Backs to Target

Ezekiel Elliot | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | vs. BUF

Alvin Kamara (DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.3k) is getting solid volume but just can’t seem to find his way into the endzone, so if I’m spending up for just one of these two guys, I’m likely siding with Zeke. Elliot may be averaging a ho-hum 4.3 YPC this season but he will most certainly touch the ball upwards of 25 times while having a very strong shot at a rushing touchdown or two. Buffalo ranks in the middle of the pack, allowing the 16th most FPPG to RBs. Production is often funneled away from their stout secondary, which allows the 3rd fewest FPPG to QBs, so I could definitely imagine a scenario where Dak struggles and the Cowboys are forced to rely on Zeke throughout this entire game.

David Montgomery | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.9k | @ DET

Montgomery has done nothing to inspire confidence in recent weeks but his DFS prices are reflecting that. Even though he had a lackluster 17 carries for 60 yards (3.5 YPC) against Detroit three weeks ago, the fact is that the Lions are still allowing the 2nd most FPPG to RBs and Montgomery is likely in line for around 15 carries and possibly a few targets. If you need a cheaper RB, Montgomery has plenty of opportunity to return value as long as Chicago can give the rookie some room to run.

Wide Receivers to Target

Calvin Ridley | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. NO

Michael Thomas (DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.2k) is a virtual lock and no one needs any convincing to play him. Looking elsewhere, perhaps the biggest Thanksgiving day injury to follow along with is the availability of Julio Jones, who is currently questionable with a shoulder injury. Considering Ridley has 22 targets in Atlanta’s last two games, he is likely well in play regardless of Julio’s status. But obviously the volume would probably be more in line with last week (14 targets) if Julio can’t suit up. Austin Hooper has already been ruled out for this week so the receiving options for Matt Ryan could be running very thin and there’s a strong chance they’re playing from behind in this one.

Michael Gallup | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.8k | vs. BUF

Amari Cooper is likely in store for some shadow coverage from Tre-Davious White, one of the league’s top cornerbacks. With Randall Cobb also drawing a pretty tough match-up with Taron Johnson out of the slot, Gallup is left with the most advantageous WR/CB match-up with the second year undrafted CB Levi Wallace. Quarterbacks have targeted receivers running routes against Wallace on 24% of his coverage snaps this season so I believe that will be the guy that Dallas tries to pick on the most.

Anthony Miller | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.3k | @ DET

I’m pretty nervous having a Chicago Bear highlighted at every position thus far but Miller has garnered 20 targets in the last two games and will get a plus match-up. Miller operates out of the slot on 83% of his routes and the Lions have allowed the 4th most FPPG to slot WRs. The Lions slot CB Justin Coleman is largely to blame, as he has been targeted on 24% of routes ran against him, allowing 0.41 FP per coverage snap. Miller is cheap, his targets are picking up, and at this point he just needs to fall on the right side of positive touchdown regression (0 TDs this season).

Tight Ends to Target

Jared Cook | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.7k | @ ATL

Tight end is a mess to figure out most weeks but it’s especially ugly on this three game slate. If you’re only running one or a few lineups, I’d be hard-pressed to get away from just spending up for Cook. He has scored touchdowns in four of his last five games while seeing 20 targets in his last three. He’s becoming a solid third option for Drew Brees behind target hogs Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.

DST

Chicago Bears | DK: $2.5k, FD: $5k | @ DET

The $5k price tag on FanDuel may make you consider other options but DraftKings is practically begging you to play the Bears DST for $2,500. The Lions possess a slate-low 16.5 implied points and could legitimately be starting a third string quarterback if Jeff Driskel isn’t able to play. That Chicago defense may not be as fearsome as they have been in recent seasons but the Lions are just extremely banged up right now so they’re almost, by default, a top defensive unit to consider this week.

Main Slate Breakdown

Bye weeks are over and done with, so even with the three Thanksgiving games on Thursday, we’ll still be left with an 11 game Sunday main slate. We could be in store for one of the games of the year when the 10-1 49ers travel out to meet the 9-2 Ravens, who are currently a six point favorite. While all eyes may be on that game, there are plenty of other spots to focus on for fantasy purposes. Some of my favorite games to load up on in DFS this week include: OAK @ KC, TB @ JAX, and GB @ NYG. Not a shocker, but those three games have some of the higher totals of this slate. This should be a fun week, so let’s get into some plays to consider at different price points!

Quarterbacks to Target

Kyler Murray | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.7k | vs. LAR

I don’t have a problem spending up on Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes this Sunday but I believe Murray has earned a right to be considered atop the tier two range this week. The Cardinals take their home field coming out of a bye week and Murray has simply been excellent for fantasy lately. He has averaged 26.8 DraftKings FPPG over his last three starts. Two of those starts came against the vaunted 49ers defense where he completed over 70% of his passes in both games while tacking on a combined 101 rushing yards and a score. Lamar Jackson just ran on this Rams defense for 95 yards on just eight carries (11.9 YPC) while garnering 36.26 FP. I’m not putting Murray on the same level as the likely league MVP right now, but the comparable skill set is pretty obvious.

Sam Darnold | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.6k | @ CIN

Am I point chasing with this pick? Eh, maybe slightly, but while Darnold has been thriving in soft match-ups, nothing is scaring me with this awful Bengals defense which allows the 7th most FPPG to QBs. The Bengals announced that Andy Dalton will reclaim the starting role which should make Cincinnati a more competitive team and force the Jets to keep their foot on the gas. This Jets team has scored 34 points in three consecutive games and Darnold’s strong play has been the primary reason behind that success.

Running Backs to Target

Saquon Barkley | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.6k | vs. GB

There’s a pretty steep drop off at the top of RB pricing from Christian McCaffrey (DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k) and you should probably just try your best to jam him in, especially in cash games. But when looking elsewhere at the top, Saquon’s name stands out. He may not be lighting up the stat sheet lately but this is a strong rebound spot for him and he’s simply too talented to continue struggling. Green Bay allows the 4th most FPPG to RBs this season and Barkley has averaged nearly five additional DraftKings FPPG at home this season. I believe he’ll have a great chance to get back on track this Sunday and I doubt his ownership will be too far beyond 10%.

Josh Jacobs | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.7k | @ KC

Speaking of potential bounce back spots, Jacobs will face a Chiefs defense that allows THE most FPPG to running backs. Jacobs was more or less scripted out of last week’s embarrassing blowout loss to the Jets, and there’s certainly a possibility that happens against this week as Oakland is a 10 point road underdog. But Jacobs averaged 8.3 YPC against KC way back in week two and since then his role as a workhorse back has been solidified. So we should expect good things out of him this week. Perhaps he’s not a cash play, but instead a high-upside GPP play, no doubt.

Miles Sanders | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.8k | @ MIA

This is somewhat contingent on Jordan Howard remaining sidelined for another week. If he is, Sanders has a very interesting opportunity. Sanders garnered an 84% snap rate last week (Jay Ajayi 12%) and on a day where nothing was working too well for the Eagles, Sanders still managed 5.3 YPC and caught 3-of-5 targets for 23 yards. It’s no secret that the Miami match-up (3rd most FPPG allowed to RBs) has made plenty of people some money this year and Sanders, if given 15-20 touches, could keep that trend rolling.

Wide Receivers to Target

Davante Adams | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | @ NYG

On a very, very forgettable Sunday Night Football performance, which featured an eight point Packer performance, Adams still turned in a respectable fantasy day, catching 7-of-12 targets for 43 yards and a score. Things should ease up drastically for Aaron Rodgers and the passing game when they travel to New York. The Giants allow the 2nd most FPPG to WRs and, since Adams is used all over the field, he should run routes against all three of the Giants' primary corners. Very few NFL WRs are a near lock for 10+ targets most weeks. Adams is absolutely one of those guys and he should be a strong floor option to spend up on.

DJ Chark Jr. | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.9k | vs. TB

You pretty much have to look towards grabbing some exposure to receivers facing this awful Bucs secondary, which has easily allowed the most FPPG to WRs this season. Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook are interesting cheaper options, but there is no question which receiver has the most upside. Chark has broken multiple slates wide open this year the Jags are really force feeding him the ball lately, as he’s averaging 10.5 targets/game over their last four. Give me a receiver with 10+ target potential against this defense any damn day!

Tyler Boyd | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6k | vs. NYJ

With Dalton back under center, I feel much better about trusting these Cincy receivers. In the first eight weeks of the season with Dalton at QB, Boyd saw at least nine targets in six games. I highly doubt AJ Green makes his season debut just yet so, for these affordable mid-range prices, I’ll take a chance on Boyd, though likely only in GPPs. The same thought process applies to Auden Tate and perhaps Alex Erickson as well.

Sterling Shepard | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.9k | vs. GB

There is not a lot of stand out value at WR this week but Shepard is a pretty cheap option and he saw nine targets last week after a five game absence. He has reached or surpassed that nine target threshold in four-of-five games started this season and the odds are pretty good that New York is playing from behind this week, unless their defense manages to put on their best San Francisco 49ers impression (not likely).

Tight Ends to Target

Travis Kelce | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.1k | vs. OAK

We do have strong options at the top of the tight end board this week with Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle all a part of the slate. Out of the three, despite him carrying the loftiest price tag, I’m leaning ever so slightly towards Kelce. In week two against Oakland, Kelce caught 7-of-9 targets for 107 yards and a TD. The Raiders have since gone on to allow the 5th most FPPG to TEs. This offense should be firing on all cylinders coming out of their bye and Kelce is the safest Chiefs receiving threat to target.

Darren Waller | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.1k | @ KC

Waller has seemingly lost a good chunk of that volume he saw early in the season -- likely due to the emergence of Josh Jacobs and the fact that Derek Carr has figured out he can throw to more than two guys. So this will probably put Waller as a GPP pivot only, but in any given week he can turn five to seven targets into a big game and the Raiders may very likely find themselves in a hole early on. That didn’t exactly translate to a strong game last week, when Oakland fell way behind, but the point still stands that Carr may be forced to throw upwards of 35-40 times. If you need a TE for cash in this range, Ryan Griffin looks like a strong option.

David Njoku | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.9k | @ PIT

Njoku is still designated to the IR but he could be elevated to the 53-man roster any day and very possibly this week. He has resumed practicing with the team and if he is indeed activated, he would represent a pretty significant talent-to-price discrepancy on both sites. Definitely worth a gamble in GPPs if he plays!

Defensive Breakdown

Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. CLE

Assuming this one doesn’t get canceled mid-game due to an all out brawl, the Steelers defensive unit deserves to be considered here. Sure, they put up a one point stinker against Cleveland two weeks ago but in their other eight games since week three they have posted no fewer than 11 fantasy points. They’re also at home, where they’ve averaged 15.7 FPPG this season.

Los Angeles Chargers | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.9k | @ DEN

Until the Drew Lock era begins in Denver, they’re still forced to start this guy named Brandon Allen, who is completing just 46.4% of his passes for 171.7 YPG. The Chargers may be on the road in a tough environment (due to elevation) but they’re fresh off their bye week and could easily cause trouble for this bad Denver offense.

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Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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