Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS

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Week 14 is upon us and for some of you out there it means you’re scrambling together (and possibly mending) your season-long teams in anticipation of the fantasy playoffs. Or perhaps you dominated your season and are sitting pretty on your bye week. For the rest, it’s just another week of the DFS grind. As we get later into the season and the physicality of the sport takes its toll, injuries are playing more and more of a factor into our decision making. Those injured reserve lists only get longer at this point. We also have the big news out of Green Bay this week with the firing of Mike McCarthy. I’m anxious to see what sort of adjustments the new look Packers implement. There’s plenty to get to with all 32 NFL teams squaring off this week so hop on in and let's get to it!

Games to Target

New Orleans Saints (-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 55.5 O/U

NO: 31.75 implied points | TB: 23.75 implied points

It’s not very surprising that this game will carry the highest total of the week. When these teams met in week one, the two teams combined for a whopping 88 points in a hell of a shootout. We can expect another high scoring affair and right now 72% of the public is taking the over to hit in this game, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the total rise two or three points by Sunday. These are two prolific offenses with TB leading the NFL with 442.7 ypg (26.5 pts/gm, 10th) and New Orleans checking in at 6th in total offense with 396.6 ypg (34.9 pts/gm, 2nd). Tampa Bay is a defense we’ve picked on all year as they allow 395.4 ypg (6th most) and 29.6 pts/gm (3rd most). New Orleans has steadily improved their defensive play as the season has progressed. They opened the year as one of the top defenses to target against but now you have to pick and choose more wisely on where to attack them. They allow 357.4 ypg (16th fewest) and 22.4 pts/gm (13th fewest). Still, you should be able to find several cash-viable players as well as high upside tournament options in this match-up.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5) | 49.5 O/U

ATL: 22 implied points | GB: 27.5 implied points

A bit of caution must be adhered to with this game considering the uncertainty of how things will pan out with Packers interim head coach Joe Philbin calling the shots. But much of that worry is mitigated by the simple fact that Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback. The betting public seems to not be too worried about the potential for offensive fireworks in this one as well because currently 69% are taking the over to hit. The Packers are averaging 380.6 ypg (8th most) which is sub-par for their standards -- especially when they’re only 16th in the NFL scoring 23.4 pts/gm. Atlanta will take their very capable offense on the road and are producing 377.6 ypg (10th most) and 24.7 pts/gm (14th most). The Atlanta defense is a soft match-up, as they permit 394.2 ypg (7th most) and 27.8 pts/gm (5th most). The Green Bay defense has been adequate, allowing 351.8 ypg (13th fewest) and 23.9 pts/gm (16th most). The Packers' playoff hopes are all but dashed but this is a winnable game for them, though I expect Atlanta to put up a good fight. I could see the Falcons easily covering the 5.5 point spread and the total going over 50 points pretty easily. Plenty of interesting plays to consider in this one.

Quarterbacks to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Ben Roethlisberger (DK: $6.8k | FD: $8.6k) @ OAK

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Big Ben leads the NFL with 3,945 passing yards so far this season and gets a very advantageous match-up with Oakland, who allows a league-high 8.7 ypa. Roethlisberger has seven games where he has topped 300+ yards passing and despite being on the road, it’s hard to imagine he struggles in this spot. Perhaps the Steelers lean slightly more on the passing attack with James Conner sidelined for the week as well. One red flag would be the possibility of a blowout, as Pittsburgh sits as 10.5 point road favorites. However, you can refer back to their week 10 game against Carolina where they had that game well in hand pretty much from the get go but stayed aggressive, passing the ball well into the fourth quarter. Roethlisberger is the second most expensive quarterback on both sites and I don’t think you need to really go here for cash games unless you have salary to spare but from a tournament perspective, he has as much upside as Mahomes or Brees if you ask me.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Aaron Rodgers (DK: $6k | FD: $8.1k) vs. ATL

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Even though he isn’t having a very Aaron Rodgers-like season, the speculative side of me wants to attribute some of the blame on the play calling and decision making of Mike McCarthy. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers gets a bit more control over how the offense runs moving forward. And fortunately, the Packers get a home match-up with Atlanta who allows the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Rodgers has a career passer rating of 103.4 (leads all active QB's). Through 12 games this season his passer rating is below his career average, sitting at 99.3, which of course isn’t terrible. The Falcons have allowed the fifth highest passer rating this season to opposing quarterbacks at 103.2. I expect a more prototypical Aaron Rodgers type game this week.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Nick Mullens (DK: $4.6k | FD: $6.4k) vs. DEN

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Mullens is dirt cheap and is coming off of a 414 yard performance to go along with a couple scores. Denver is down their best corner right now with Chris Harris Jr. nursing a leg fracture and as a unit, they have allowed 400+ yards passing in two of their last three games. Of course the two quarterbacks accounting for those games were Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger but there’s some 300+ yard, multi-touchdown potential for Mullens here at home. Any performance close to that would pay his DFS salaries off nicely. Seems like a solid option for tournaments if you want to spend up on an extra stud or two at the skill positions.

Running Backs to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Christian McCaffrey (DK: $9.3k | FD: $9.1k) @ CLE

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Is CMC getting too expensive? It would be tough to justify not pricing him above $9k at this point. His production in both facets of the game are off the charts lately. He also just doesn’t come off the field. His 97.2% offensive snap rate leads all NFL running backs by a wide margin, resulting in him being extremely game flow independent. If his targets take a dive one week, his rush attempts seem to go up and vice versa. The Panthers are on a four game skid after starting 6-2 and are in desperate need of a win to stay in the playoff hunt. The Browns are a nice match-up for running backs as they allow the 8th most FPPG to the position and have allowed the 3rd most rushing TD's with 15. CMC is also the league leader in receptions since week six (53) and with Greg Olsen sent to IR you have to imagine he flirts with double digit targets more weeks than not.

Ezekiel Elliot (DK: $8.6k | FD: $8.8k) vs. PHI

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

The Cowboys are on a roll with four straight impressive wins. To no surprise, Zeke has been a key component, averaging 29.5 touches per game in that span (22.75 rushing, 6.75 receptions) to go along with five total touchdowns. Expect more of the same in a pivotal divisional game as the Cowboys (7-5) will look to create some breathing room from the Eagles (6-6). You also probably remember the monstrous performance that Elliot had against Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football a few weeks ago where he went for 151 yards on 19 carries (7.9 ypc) and a touchdown while catching six of seven targets for 36 yards and an additional score. That will be a tough performance to top but with the immense volume he’s seeing it’s well within the realm of possibilities. 

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Phillip Lindsay (DK: $6.3k | FD: $7.5k) @ SF

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I get the feeling that the popular route when it comes to running backs this week will be mixing and matching top priced studs with one or two cheap value guys, thus leaving the mid-tier guys with much less ownership. Lindsay exploded for 157 yards on 19 carries last week (8.3 ypc) for two touchdowns. Of course, it helps to play the hapless Bengals defense but, not to do a disservice to Lindsay, the undrafted rookie leads the NFL with 6.1 ypc on the year. Due to his size, it’s very unlikely he’ll ever see the volume of a bell-cow but given his efficiency he doesn’t need to. However, his 20 touches in week 13 represented a 35.1% market share which ranked 7th among NFL players. I’m a bit surprised he doesn’t see more volume in the passing game (2.7 targets/gm) but you have to wonder with Emmanuel Sanders done for the year if that might bump him up another target or two per game. The Broncos are far from being out of the playoff running after ripping off three straight wins and Lindsay will need to continue to play a key role. The 49ers allow the 13th most FPPG to running backs and Lindsay has shown a great floor all season (aside from week three at Baltimore when he got ejected).

Lamar Miller (DK: $5.1k | FD: $6.5k) vs. IND

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Miller has somewhat quietly put together a nice stretch of games for the last month and a half. He has accounted for 100+ rushing yards in four of his last six. Indy isn’t a prime match-up to attack, as they allow more damage to be done by pass catching backs than traditional “between the tackles” guys like Miller. But Houston is a very run-oriented offense, as they run the ball on 48.2% of plays (2nd in NFL). Miller is also averaging +6.6 additional [DraftKings] points at home this season. The Texans are 4.5 point home favorites with a 27 implied team point total. I imagine they’ll look to keep Luck and their highly capable offense off the field by giving Miller some healthy volume and he should have a decent shot at a scoring opportunity.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Jeff Wilson Jr. (DK: $3.8k | FD: $5.6k) vs. DEN

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

There are three pretty obvious cheap options at running back this week with Wilson, Samuels and Jackson. Wilson seems to have the clearest path to a full workload with Breida missing this week and Alfred Morris being a healthy scratch in recent weeks. Now, of course the 49ers will likely activate Morris this week, but given how productive Wilson was last week, I’d be surprised if he sees a ton of action. When Breida got injured last week after playing just ten snaps, Wilson rarely came off the field, playing on 54 of 76 offensive snaps for the 49ers. He saw 15 carries for 61 yards (4.1 ypc) but most intriguingly, he caught eight of nine targets for 73 yards. I’m not expecting him to necessarily have that many targets this week but he’ll definitely be the preferred receiving option, which makes me love his floor.

Jaylen Samuels (DK: $3.7k | FD: $4.6k) @ OAK

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

The “cheap chalk” option number two sets up to be Samuels. Of course, Mike Tomlin has said they’ll have more of a committee approach between Samuels and Stevan Ridley but part of me wonders if that is just “coach speak” considering how the Steelers have had a clear history of leaning heavily on one bell-cow back in recent years. Regardless, you would expect Samuels to approach around 12 to 15 total touches at minimum and against Oakland, whose paltry defense allows 5.0 ypc. He could easily reach value while carrying some solid touchdown equity. The fact that the Steelers are double digit favorites adds a bit to the upside as well.

Wide Receivers to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Michael Thomas (DK: $8.6k | FD: $8.3k) @ TB

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Thomas torched this weak Bucs' secondary for 16 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown when these teams faced each other to open the season. He’s had a couple very uninspiring performances in the last two weeks with just nine combined catches for 78 scoreless yards. That, along with the fact that he is not practicing as of Wednesday, is a bit worrisome. If he gets some sort of practice in on Thursday then it’s hard not to like his upside for tournaments this week. Tampa Bay allows the 4th most FPPG to wide receivers and you can bet that the Saints will be looking to bounce back in a big way after squeaking out just 10 points last week in Dallas.

Davante Adams (DK: $8.4k | FD: $8.7k) vs. ATL

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

There may be some coaching changes going on in Green Bay this week but one thing should remain a constant: Adams will undoubtedly remain Aaron Rodgers’ go-to man. Adams has been amazing this season, having accounted for 133+ receiving yards OR a touchdown in 11 of 12 games. Now he’ll face Atlanta, who doesn’t have a physical enough cornerback that can hang with Adams for four quarters. This seems like another great opportunity for Adams to churn out another 100+ yard day with a touchdown or two thrown in to boot.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Keenan Allen (DK: $7.4k | FD: $7.9k) vs. CIN

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Allen had easily his best game of the year last week when he connected with Philip Rivers for 14 catches on 19 targets for 148 yards and a touchdown. Those 19 targets represented a 52.8% target share which easily led all NFL players in week 13. He gets the benefit of not seeing a DFS price bump due to playing on Sunday night. His massive target count can be attributed to the Chargers falling behind as they trailed 7-23 at halftime. An added emphasis on the passing attack could also be due to Melvin Gordon sitting out as well. It’s hard to imagine the Chargers falling behind at home to a very beat up Cincinnati team, but considering the Bengals give up a league worst 30.9 PPG, Rivers and Allen may do plenty of damage before it’s time to call off the dogs. After scoring just one touchdown through eight games, Allen is on a four game streak of finding the endzone. Regardless, he should have a strong floor whether he scores or not.

Larry Fitzgerald (DK: $4.9k | FD: $6.2k) vs. DET

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

There are a lot of appealing plays to me in this low-mid range for receivers, specifically guys like Humphries, Godwin, Ridley and a couple more. But I like Fitzgerald’s opportunity this week. The Cardinals lost rookie WR Christian Kirk for the season with a broken foot. Kirk had seen a 20.1% target share this season -- second on the team to Fitzgerald (23.1%). Those targets will have to be funneled elsewhere and old reliable Larry would be the primary candidate to see an uptick in looks. Fitzgerald also gets a favorable match-up with Detroit slot cornerback, Nevin Lawson, who has been beat up on quite a bit this season. Fitz has also made his presence felt in the redzone recently with five touchdowns over his last six games.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Zay Jones (DK: $4.2k | FD: $5.1k) vs. NYJ

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Can you trust anyone on this Buffalo offense? No. Is there upside to be had in certain match-ups? Certainly. These two teams met just four weeks ago and Jones caught eight passes on 11 targets for 93 yards and a score. He is the de facto number one receiver on an NFL team and considering his cheap DFS salaries, he has to have some sort of relevancy this week against a bad Jets' secondary that he has already had success against. Just be aware he can also end the day with three catches for 20 yards, so play with caution.

DaeSean Hamilton (DK: $3k | FD: $4.5k) @ SF

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Sitting at the minimum salary on both sites and set to immediately take on Emmanuel Sanders’ role in the Broncos' offense is rookie fourth round pick DaeSean Hamilton. Hamilton finished his career at Penn State as the all-time leading receiver with 214 receptions, 2,842 yards and 18 touchdowns. He cannot provide the explosiveness that Sanders did but he is a polished route runner and actually led all wide receivers in snaps last week (47, 80%) though he didn’t record a target. Regardless, that was still a game that Sanders played in and Keenum seems to like his potential. On Wednesday in an interview, Keenum had this to say about Hamilton: “No, he’s a great kid and he works his absolute tail off. Last week, he didn’t catch a ball but you saw how we motioned him down there and he’s sticking his nose in there to block those safeties from last week. Whatever we’ve asked him to do, he’s done it. Not just as a pass catcher, which he’s really, really good at. I think he’s a guy that we’ve been trying to feature more and more over the last couple of weeks,” Keenum said. “It’s going to be exciting to see the last quarter of the season and the end of this year how he continues to develop.” With Sutton set to now garner the toughest coverage, I’ll be interested in seeing what this kid can do.

Tight Ends to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Zach Ertz (DK: $6.4k | FD: $7.4k) @ DAL

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

The last time I wrote up Ertz he absolutely balled out against New Orleans with two catches for 15 yards! Hoping to not repeat the jinx, Ertz will be my top option to spend up on at the position this week. With all the value at running back, there’s definitely some wiggle room to afford a high dollar tight end and not look at your lineup with disgust. This Dallas defense is starting to become a little scary to attack. However, Ertz was basically the only weapon that worked for the Eagles in their first meeting where he had a career day with 14 catches on 16 targets for 145 yards and two scores. That stat line definitely impacted the DvP numbers Dallas has against tight ends but they give up the 12th most FPPG to the position. Though, with Ertz, it’s more about volume than match-ups, as he is averaging 10.1 targets and 7.8 receptions a week and is on pace to set a few tight end records.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

David Njoku (DK: $3.9k | FD: $5.3k) vs. CAR

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Njoku has had a very up and down past few weeks with a goose egg thrown in the mix in a game where he didn’t get injured. So this play doesn’t carry a ton of safety and is more of a match-up play as Carolina has struggled to cover tight ends all season and allow the 4th most FPPG and a (tied for the) league-high nine touchdowns given up to the position. Njoku was limited at practice on Wednesday so monitor his status as the week progresses.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Ian Thomas (DK: $2.7k | FD: $4.9k) @ CLE

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

I don't totally hate giving Thomas a look in cash games on DraftKings, specifically if you’re looking to punt at tight end. But I prefer him more from a tournament perspective overall on both sites. Thomas is stepping into a starters role for a second stint this season with Greg Olsen sent to IR. He wasn’t very productive in his first stretch with an expanded role but last week he caught all five of his targets for 46 yards. He’ll get a Cleveland defense that has given up the most catches to tight ends this season (75) and overall allow the sixth most FPPG to TE's. 

Defensive Breakdown

Pittsburgh Steelers (DK: $3k | FD: $4.7k)

I’ve said it plenty of times but any DST is worthy of consideration when playing Oakland and will traditionally be a solid floor play. The Raiders scored 33 points on Kansas City last week yet the Chiefs DST still managed eight fantasy points.

New Orleans Saints (DK: $2.7k | FD: $3.8k)

I can’t tell if this is really a contrarian play since predicting DST ownership can be a crapshoot but the Saints’ defensive unit has been dangerous lately. In the last three weeks they have 16 sacks and nine turnovers while allowing 12.3 pts/gm. Tampa Bay likely scores some decent points this week but if you’ve ever watched Jameis Winston play, you know he can make some… “questionable” decisions with the ball. There’s always a chance for a wild pick six play when Winston drops back.

Thursday Night Special

Dede Westbrook (DK: $3.9k / $6.8k Showdown | FD: $5k / $8k Single Game)

Oh boy… with a total of 37.5 points, this game is a rough one to look at. If NFL games could somehow be personified, this Jacksonville/Titans game would be the very out of shape guy/gal at the bar that plays Eddie Money’s “Take Me Home Tonight” on the jukebox at 2:52 am after last call and saunters (read: stumbles) over to you (probably doing some kind of odd twitchy dance while snapping their fingers) and lays down their best drunken pick-up line to hope you are intoxicated and desperate enough to accept their advances.

Only the bold and/or possibly inebriated folks will make it through 60 minutes of this one but if I had to take a shot on any of the non-obvious plays then Westbrook could fit the bill. Over the last two weeks, with Cody Kessler starting last game as well as throwing the most passes the week prior (30 to Bortles’ 23 prior to being benched), Westbrook leads the Jags wide receivers with nine targets, catching six for 69 yards and a touchdown. Most importantly, he has seen by far the most air yards in that span with 147 yards (16.3 average depth of target). The next two closest in that span would be Moncrief with 74 air yards (9.2 aDOT), then tight end James O’Shaughnessy with just 19 air yards (4.8 aDOT). So when they’re looking for a big play down the field lately, they’re more inclined to look for Westbrook. Tennessee allows the 9th most FPPG to WR's, so it stands to reason that one of these Jacksonville receivers can break off a nice outing. No one ping me in the LineStar chat or blast me on Twitter when we somehow get a 38-35 shootout in this game.

Weekly NFL Freeroll

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That’s it for week fourteen! As always, please hit me with any thoughts you may have on the newsletters or questions you have for the slate! Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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