Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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Here we go, we have entered the final calendar month of the NFL regular season. There always seems to be an additional weight of importance on these late season games. Teams are trying to lock up first round playoff seeds with others are aiming to win divisional championships and wild card bids. Organizations further down the totem pole are in an evaluation mode as owners and GMs determine what their future identity is going to look like moving forward. We’ve already seen one team break ties with their head coach after the 5-7 Panthers fired Ron Rivera earlier in the week, presumably to get a head start on the coaching search before other teams get an opportunity to do so. There is a reason why players and coaches alike say that “NFL” stands for “Not For Long.” Let’s get a look at our 13 game main slate and try to figure out what the future may hold!

Games to Target

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-3) | 47 O/U

CAR: 22.0 implied points | ATL: 25.0 implied points

CAR Off. Pace Rank: 2nd | ATL Off. Pace Rank: 6th

CAR PPG For/Against: 23.3/26.7 | ATL PPG For/Against: 21.7/26.9

Yes, Carolina canned their head coach this week but not much should change about their offense with Norv Turner calling plays, so I don’t believe there is too much risk in stacking up this game. I highly doubt we’ll see another blowout between these two teams like the one from week 11 when the Falcons beat down on the Panthers by a score of 29-3. A couple reasons I love this game: it will take place in a dome, where scoring is typically higher, and these are two very uptempo offenses. As you’ll see above, Carolina is 2nd in offensive pace, while Atlanta is 6th. While these are the 13th (CAR) and 18th (ATL) ranked scoring offenses, we should still see a ton of offensive plays which, obviously, helps rack up fantasy scoring all around. There are quite a few injuries to monitor here, especially on the Atlanta side. Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Austin Hooper, and Russell Gage are all listed as questionable. Panthers TE Greg Olsen will also carry a questionable designation into the week. If two or three of those guys end up being ruled out, be on the look out for some value to open up as some of those targets are going to have to go somewhere!

Quarterbacks to Target

Deshaun Watson | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | vs. DEN

This feels like a solid buy low opportunity on Watson, who is priced as the 6th most expensive QB on DraftKings, and 11th most expensive on FanDuel. Denver does have a stout pass defense which allows the 4th fewest FPPG to QBs, but if you run through their schedule, they haven’t really been challenged by many elite passers this season. Watson has also been impressive at home where he has a 13:1 TD:INT ratio and averages 24.5 DKFP across six games. I believe he's just a tad too cheap on both sites this week and should possess a strong floor and ceiling despite the tough match-up on paper.

Kyler Murray | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.5k | vs. PIT

It’s pretty laughable that Murray’s counterpart, Devlin ‘Duck’ Hodges, is more expensive than him on DraftKings this week. Maybe you can’t trust him in cash games but Murray’s rushing ability makes him a GPP play week in and week out. He’s averaging 37.2 rushing YPG this season, which is essentially worth an extra passing TD per game, and that’s if he doesn’t also find the endzone on the ground. Pittsburgh is a stout defense but Murray has averaged 22.0 FPPG at home this season and with the Steelers favored by just 2.5 points, I’d be surprised if this one turns into a blowout like the one we saw in Arizona last week.

Ryan Tannehill | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.3k | @ OAK

Tannehill has been extremely impressive since taking over as the starter for the Titans in week seven. Tennessee is 5-1 across Tannehill’s six starts and his 72.7% completion rate is only bested by Drew Brees (73.8%). He may only be averaging 200.3 passing YPG but he’s averaging 1.5 passing TDs/game while adding a bit of value with his legs (16.0 rushing YPG). This game possesses one of the highest totals (47.5 O/U) and closest spreads (TEN -2.5) of the week and Oakland allows the 6th most FPPG to QBs. This all amounts to this looking like a really strong spot for Tannehill this Sunday.

Running Backs to Target

Leonard Fournette | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.5k | vs. LAC

With Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry a bit banged up, Christian McCaffrey is once again your best bet when spending up at the position, despite a lackluster performance (by his standards) last week. Fournette also doesn’t appear to be a bad guy to spend a decent chunk of salary on. His 81 targets, 91.7% snap rate, and 89.9% opportunity share are all second only to the aforementioned McCaffrey. The only thing that hasn’t been there are the touchdowns, as he somehow has just three on the season. The goal line really has just been some sort of strangely invisible kryptonite for Fournette this year. But perhaps this is a week where he can snag one or two scores, who knows! The match-up isn’t a concern, as the Chargers allow the 9th most FPPG to RBs and over their last four games they have given up 7.8 receptions/game to the position.

Melvin Gordon III | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k | @ JAX

I’m gonna stick in the same game here and highlight Melvin Gordon. Jacksonville has been getting dismantled on the ground in recent weeks, allowing 160.8 rushing YPG and 37.2 DKFPPG over their last four games. The Chargers are relying heavily on their backfield duo of Gordon and Ekeler, rightfully so considering how bad Philip Rivers has looked lately. As a result, Gordon has had at least 22 touches in three of his last four games. A similar workload would bode well against this struggling Jacksonville front seven.

Devonta Freeman | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6k | vs. CAR

In his first game back from a two week absence, Freeman took the field on 67% of offensive snaps. He didn’t have a remarkable day (17 car, 51 yds, 4 rec, 13 yds) but the volume indicates that he is still the preferred option in this backfield. The match-ups from last week and this week are also night and day. New Orleans has been strong up front, allowing the 4th fewest FPPG to RBs. Meanwhile, Carolina has been getting toasted all year and have given up the 2nd most FPPG to opposing backfields. Around 15-20 touches for Freeman could pay off nice dividends this week.

Patrick Laird | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.5k | @ NYJ

Since week 11, Laird’s offensive snap count percentage has steadily risen from 23%, to 37%, all the way up to 60% last week when he scored his first career touchdown. The Dolphins actually look like they may not be mailing it in this year and Laird could present himself as a nice value play this week if those snap percentages continue to rise. He’s also seen at least five targets in two of his last three games so some PPR potential is there as well. The Jets have allowed running backs to catch 6.3 rec/game for 49.4 YPG this year.

Wide Receivers to Target

Davante Adams | DK: $8k, FD: $8.4k | vs. WAS

There is some blowout risk here, with Green Bay sitting at 12.5 point home favorites, but you have to imagine that Adams is an excellent floor option regardless. If this does turn into a blowout, odds are that Adams is going to be one of the primary causes. He is now four games into his return from a turf toe injury and in that span he has averaged 10.8 targets/game from Aaron Rodgers. Given the volume, his 66.5 YPG in that span seems to be on the low side, so I’d give him about even odds to surpass the 100 yard mark against Washington this week. And he’s always Rodgers’ main read when the Packers are passing near the endzone.

DJ Moore | DK: $7k, FD: $7.1k | @ ATL

Moore leads all NFL WRs over the last month with 516 air yards. Unsurprisingly, his 11.8 targets/game in that time frame lead all receivers on the slate. He runs 59% of his routes on the left perimeter -- the side of the field where Atlanta has allowed the 4th most FPPG, largely due to the soft coverage from second-year cornerback Isaiah Oliver. No one is confusing Kyle Allen for Drew Brees or Patrick Mahomes, but double digit targets against this Falcons' secondary (and Oliver, in particular) make Moore a very worthy guy to consider in this tier of pricing.

James Washington | DK: $6k, FD: $6.7k | @ ARI

I’m not necessarily in a rush to jump on the Duck Hodges bandwagon when building lineups this week, but the fact is that Patrick Peterson and Byron Murphy have been one of the worst perimeter cornerback duos in the NFL -- Washington runs 76% of his routes on the outside. JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) still isn’t practicing as of Thursday and I’d lean towards him sitting out at least another week. So Washington should have another solid opportunity here in one of the best match-ups for a receiver to garner. It may be a bit premature, but Hodges and Washington have a clear chemistry going. No surprise, since apparently they even go hunting together!

Marvin Jones Jr. | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.4k | @ MIN

I feel like a lot of people would be surprised to find out that the Vikings have allowed the most FPPG to perimeter receivers this season. Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes just haven’t been getting the job done. The Lions will be forced to start third stringer David Blough once again and, all things considered, he didn’t look all that bad on Thanksgiving when he faced off with the Bears in his NFL debut. The Lions are heavy 13 point underdogs here, so expect plenty of passing out of this offense. Jones may be a bit boom/bust so you probably only want exposure to him in GPPs, but I do really like the upside here and his ownership probably won’t be much more than 5%.

Parris Campbell | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.8k | @ TB

Campbell has only played in two of Indy’s last eight games, as he’s been dealing with a hand injury. But he has been practicing fully this week, so I’d be shocked if he doesn’t have a legitimate role with TY Hilton (calf) likely to remain sidelined. The WRs vs. Tampa Bay match-up has been a profitable venture nearly every week, as they’ve surrendered the most FPPG to the position. Assuming Campbell is active, I would presume he plays on at least 60% of snaps and he won’t need a ton of production to pay off his salaries, especially on DraftKings. Another positive is that his recent injury didn’t involve his lower extremities, so by all means his route running ability and speed shouldn’t be a concern this Sunday.

Tight Ends to Target

Darren Waller | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.2k | vs. TEN

Maybe it’s not a fun fact, but an interesting fact: Darren Waller is the only tight end with three 100+ yard receiving games this season. Through 13 weeks, that should tell you how brutal the position has been to predict success in this year. The Titans have allowed the 8th most FPPG to the position and this should be a relatively high scoring, competitive game, so this is as good of a spot as any to target Waller once again.

Jack Doyle | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6.3k | @ TB

With Eric Ebron out for the season, Doyle is left to see nearly 100% of offensive snaps moving forward and, as previously mentioned, without TY Hilton, this offense is in desperate need of effective pass catchers. Doyle should get his fair share of targets against a Bucs defense that gives up the 4th most FPPG to the position.

Mike Gesicki | DK: $4k, FD: $5.4k | @ NYJ

Gesicki is quietly one of the more athletic guys in the league at this position and he’s put a touchdown up in the box score in back-to-back weeks now. He’s also had at least six targets in five consecutive weeks. It’s not a safe play, but so few tight ends are. In the lower price ranges for TE, opportunities are about all you can hope for and Gesicki has been getting them.

Defensive Breakdown

Baltimore Ravens | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.2k | @ BUF

Everyone’s all over this Baltimore offense right now but the fact is that their defense has been humming, too. They’ve scored 90 fantasy points over their last six games (15.0 FPPG) and while the mobile Josh Allen and sneaky good offense in Buffalo may not be an easy task, for these salaries, I’m on board with ‘em this week.

San Francisco 49ers | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.8k | @ NO

It’s never an easy task to face Drew Brees in the Superdome but this defense is priced way down relative to how talented they are. They’ve surpassed double digit fantasy points against offenses like Green Bay and Seattle this season so, in another difficult spot, I could certainly see them playing very tough this week. This is also a huge game for NFC playoff seeding purposes, so both sides are going to be highly motivated for this one.

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🔥 SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play 🔥

For this week’s SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play, I am going to roll with Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (1.7x multiplier). For reasons outlined above, the match-up cannot get much better (CAR 2nd most FPPG allowed to RBs) and Freeman’s snap count should hover around 65-75% with 15-20 touches. With four primary Atlanta pass catchers carrying questionable tags into the week, Freeman should see his fair share of dump-offs and screens as well.

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