Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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We have a fully loaded 13-game main slate on tap for this Sunday with plenty of enticing match-ups to break down. Playoff positioning and wild card bids are up for grabs all over the place and I can’t wait to see what moves teams manage to make over these final three weeks of the regular season! As a reminder, with the season winding down, make sure you’re staying vigilant in your DFS process and eventually the preparation and hard work will pay off! Let’s dive right on into this one!

Games to Target

Miami Dolphins @ New York Giants (-3.5) | 46.5 O/U

MIA: 21.5 implied points | NYG: 25.0 implied points

MIA Off. Pace Rank: 9th | NYG Off. Pace Rank: 11th

MIA PPG For/Against: 17.0/30.7 | NYG PPG For/Against: 19.0/27.8

This is far from a prestigious match-up but these two teams feature bottom five scoring defenses while also playing at a fast tempo on offense. This is also a great game to target due to all of the affordable options to load up on. Aside from Saquon Barkley and DaVante Parker (if he plays), no other players are really going to break the bank. The key storyline to watch as we get closer to Sunday is whether or not Eli Manning will garner a second consecutive start as Daniel Jones continues to recover from an ankle sprain. In Monday night’s game against the Eagles, Manning started off looking pretty polished out there, throwing for 179 yards and two touchdowns in the first half. However, he finished the game with just 203 yards passing while the Giants surrendered 20 unanswered points to the Eagles during the overtime loss. Other injuries to monitor include Golden Tate, Evan Engram, Albert Wilson, Allen Hurns and, as mentioned above, DaVante Parker. Of those five guys, Tate and Hurns should likely play, as they have both turned in full practices already this week. Parker (concussion) and Engram (foot) are much more questionable but both have gotten in limited practices as of Thursday. We’ll likely see around 4 to 6 touchdowns scored in this pillow fight of a game, possibly more, so feel free to roster multiple Giants and Dolphins in the same lineup, which should help you load up on pricier studs elsewhere.

Quarterbacks to Target

Patrick Mahomes | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.3k | vs. DEN

I believe this is likely going to be a week where Mahomes checks in at under 10% owned. Any time that is a realistic possibility, I think taking a shot on him in tournaments is a great spot to gain some leverage. His numbers may be a far cry from what they were last year but he has, of course, had to deal with missing the better part of three games due to the knee injury and he also hasn’t had the cushiest of match-ups to take advantage of. On paper, Denver isn’t the greatest match-up either, but they have softened up lately, allowing 23.6 FPPG over their last four games. Kansas City’s 27.8 implied point total is the second highest on the slate and, considering how much their run game has struggled lately, there is very real potential for Mahomes to have himself a three or four touchdown day.

Ryan Tannehill | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.6k | vs. HOU

 Tannehill has been mentioned plenty in these newsletters lately and his prices are creeping up but he still feels like a solid value with the way he has been playing and the match-up doesn’t get much better. Houston has given up the 3rd most FPPG to QBs this season and Tannehill has completed a whopping 73.4% of his passes -- which is just 0.2% behind NFL accuracy leader Drew Brees. This is also a highly pivotal AFC South game, as both the Titans and Texans sit at 8-5. So the winner will pull ahead to control the division. The 50 point total here is also the highest of any game this week so a bit of a shootout developing here wouldn’t be much of a surprise.

Eli Manning | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.8k | vs. MIA

Currently I am working under the assumption that Manning gets a second straight start. If so, he’ll be a solid value target as he steps on the Giants home field to face off with a soft Miami secondary which allows the 6th most FPPG to QBs -- including 27.0 FPPG allowed over their last four games. There is a chance that all of New York’s key receivers will be fully healthy by the time Sunday rolls around. In that case, around 20 FP should be very manageable for Eli in this spot.

Running Backs to Target

Saquon Barkley | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. MIA

Barkley’s struggles continued Monday night but that was somewhat expected against a stout Philly front seven. He hasn’t found the endzone since week eight and has scored single digit fantasy points in three of the last five games. Not exactly inspiring stuff but obviously all the blame can’t fall on his shoulders. If there is a time for him to have a more Saquon-like performance, it would be this week. Miami’s 28.5 FPPG allowed to RBs this season is the 6th most in the NFL and Barkley handles 89.5% of the Giants running back touches and targets, which is second in the NFL (behind Christian McCaffrey, 91.7%).

Chris Carson | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.4k | @ CAR

 The Panthers give up a league worst 5.3 YPC and their 30.8 FPPG allowed to RBs is the 2nd most in the NFL (33.5 FPPG L4G). This Seattle backfield was trending towards a fairly even split between Carson and Rashaad Penny but after suffering a torn ACL in last Sunday’s game, Penny is done for the year and Carson should likely go back to handling the bulk of the RB touches. After facing four top 12 run defenses in the last five games, this should be a breath of fresh air for Carson and the Seahawks running game.

Raheem Mostert | DK: $5.2k, FD: $7.5k | vs. ATL

Despite two difficult match-ups on the road against Baltimore and New Orleans (two top six run defenses), Mostert was able to rack up 263 total yards and three touchdowns. He possessed a 60% and 74% snap rate in those two games. According to head coach Kyle Shanahan, Mostert has given the 49ers "no choice" but to use him as the leader of the team's backfield. Plenty of people are well versed in the nature of “Shanahanigans” but considering how impressive Mostert was in those two games and the fact that his 6.0 YPC average leads the NFL, I’d be surprised if Shanahan is bluffing on this one. Much better DraftKings value.

Patrick Laird | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.5k | @ NYG

It’s not saying much, but Laird’s 48 yards on 15 carries and 4 catches for 38 yards against the Jets this past Sunday was the best running back performance by a Miami Dolphin in weeks. It appears he has a stranglehold on the lead back position after handing 82% of offensive snaps last week. The Jets allow a league low 3.0 YPC, so the sledding should get a bit easier in this Giants match-up. The Giants have also been getting nickel and dimed by pass catching RBs lately (7.8 rec/gm for 51.0 yds/gm over the L4G) which has been a skill set that Laird has shown off in recent games. For the salaries, he’ll have comparable volume to running backs who are $2k+ more expensive than him. If he happens to find the endzone, Laird may end up as one of the better value plays of the slate.

Wide Receivers to Target

Julian Edelman | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.7k | @ CIN

I’m not crazy about spending up on many receivers this week but Edelman makes plenty of sense, especially on DraftKings with full PPR scoring in play. There is a noticeable disconnect with this Patriots offense lately but Edelman has managed to stay quite consistent throughout the year, in large part by heavy volume. Edelman now has eight straight games where he has been targeted at least ten times, ultimately amassing a 27.3% target share which ranks 4th in the NFL. Cincinnati is easier to run on than pass on, but considering New England’s 23rd ranked rush offense hasn’t done much all year, it’s pretty safe to assume that they’ll look to lean heavy on Brady and the passing game. Perhaps this is a good ‘get right’ spot for the Patriots offense as they prepare for the playoffs.

Odell Beckham Jr. | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.2k | @ ARI

It is a little wild to scroll down and see OBJ priced as the 17th most expensive WR on both sites, but these mid-range prices are certainly warranted. Beckham is averaging just 4.5 rec/game for 64.9 YPG this season. Not very OBJ-like. He’s still garnering strong looks as his 8.2 targets/game translates to a 25.7% target share, which ranks 8th in the NFL. Continuing the talk of ‘get right’ spots, perhaps facing Arizona and their NFL worst pass defense (294.2 YPG) is what Beckham needs. It has been made known that Beckham has been playing through a painful sports hernia, so he isn’t operating at 100%. Still, give me an 80% healthy OBJ against this secondary, send him 8 to 10 targets, and I’ll certainly look to grab some exposure to him in GPPs. Definitely not a cash play.

Keenan Allen | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | @ MIN

After getting off to a ferocious start to the season, Keenan Allen came back down to earth but he is still producing solid box scores lately. Over the Chargers last four games, Allen is averaging 9.0 targets, 6.8 receptions, and 72.5 yards while finding the endzone twice. The Minnesota Vikings may not immediately come to mind when you think of bad secondaries but the fact is that they’ve given up the 7th most FPPG to WRs this season (3rd most in the last eight weeks). You’re not paying a crazy price on Allen and his production has been steady enough recently to where I’d probably consider him in all formats.

Terry McLaurin | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6k | vs. PHI

Speaking of receivers who got off to a torrid start to the year, the  “Scary” Terry craze has rapidly died down. He is coming off of one of his better fantasy days of late, after hauling in 4-of-7 targets for 57 yards and a score against Green Bay on Sunday. The move to Dwayne Haskins at quarterback over Case Keenum certainly put a big hit on McLaurin’s fantasy prowess, but this could be a solid spot to roll him out. McLaurin runs 76% of his routes on the perimeter and the Eagles have given up the most FPPG to perimeter WRs this year. The WR/CB coverage match-ups with Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills simply doesn’t get much better. As long as Haskins can deliver some catchable passes (this is quite a bit to ask of him) then ‘TMac’ could be in for a strong day.

Justin Watson | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.5k | @ DET

 One of the major fantasy conundrums this week is “how to respond to the Mike Evans injury?” Evans (hamstring) is going to be out for this week, and may possibly be shut down for the remainder of the year. The absence of a guy who possessed a 23.8% target share will obviously send plenty of DFS attention towards Chris Godwin (DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.4k), Breshad Perriman (DK: $4.5k, FD: $6.4k), and perhaps even OJ Howard (DK: 3.5k, FD: $5.7k). I’m leaning towards taking my chances on Watson as a cheap punt play. The second-year 6’3” WR played on 58% of snaps after Evans (24% snap count) suffered the injury. He ended up hauling in 5-of-8 targets for 59 yards and a score. Perriman may be slotted in as the WR2 in this offense now, but truthfully, I just don’t think he’s a great receiver. He may very well end up with a solid fantasy day based on volume alone but considering Tampa Bay has run 81% of offensive plays with at least three wide receivers on the field, Watson should have ample opportunity as well. Jameis Winston’s thumb injury is something to monitor as the week progresses but currently it seems he is trending towards playing.

Tight Ends to Target

Zach Ertz | DK: $6k, FD: $6.7k | @ WAS

 I’m somewhat surprised that Ertz isn’t the highest priced TE on the board this week. He has looked like the Zach Ertz we’ve come to know in recent seasons after averaging 8.4 catches on 11.0 targets a game over the Eagles’ last five games. Now with Alshon Jeffery on IR and Nelson Agholor still uncertain for this week, Carson Wentz has very few trusted options to throw to. Washington has given up the 9th most FPPG this season and odds are this will be another strong spot where you can feel good about spending up on Ertz.

Tyler Higbee | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.7k | @ DAL

I understand there is concern over Higbee’s volume if Gerald Everett returns but right now, after posting back-to-back 100+ yard games, I feel like this may be Higbee’s starting spot to lose. Higbee has barely come off of the field in the last two weeks, accounting for a 91% and 97% snap count. Assuming Everett is out (or limited) again this week, Higbee is an excellent mid-range tight end to target. Dallas allows the 10th most FPPG to the position.

Ian Thomas | DK: $3.1k, FD: $5.3k | vs. SEA

Greg Olsen remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol which could put Ian Thomas in line for second consecutive start-worthy position. He played on 86% of snaps last week and brought in 5-of-10 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown. Seattle has been really bad against tight ends this year (2nd most FPPG allowed), so if Olsen sits once again, Thomas should be looked at as a viable cheap TE target, especially for $3,100 on DraftKings.

Defensive Breakdown

San Francisco 49ers | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.5k | vs. ATL

This could be a solid week to pay up for a strong defense like San Francisco. They’ve been dominant at home this year, allowing teams to score just 14.8 PPG while averaging 14.5 FPPG themselves. The Falcons are a bit banged up on offense and carry one of the lowest implied team totals of the week (18.0 points).

Detroit Lions | DK: $2.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. TB

If you’re looking to get a bit risky at DST, the Lions at home may not be a bad option. Tampa Bay will be without a vital weapon with Mike Evans sidelined and Jameis Winston, as of Thursday, is throwing tennis balls in practice instead of footballs due to an injured thumb. Winston is already turnover prone as it is so if that thumb on his throwing hand isn’t 100%, he could really be throwing some ducks out there on Sunday.

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🔥 SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play 🔥

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