Top NFL Plays Week #15 | Premiere Teams in Primetime Leaves Tricky Main Slate

December 12, 2018

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS

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We’ve arrived at week 15 and the race for playoffs is in full force. Currently only the Chiefs, Saints and Rams have clinched playoff berths and, even with just three weeks left in regular season, some wild scenarios can happen that would land a would-be contender out of the postseason. It’s time for everyone to be on their A-game! This week we have some of the higher profile teams playing in the primetime slots: Chargers at Chiefs, Eagles at Rams and Saints at Panthers. We also have a couple games being played on Saturday. While I do look to consider every game Thursday through Monday in these newsletters, breaking down my favorite plays on the main slate is usually the main focus. Navigating the main slate this week will be a bit tricky given some of the match-ups and lack of elite offenses. Luckily, LineStar has ya covered with all the tools you need to cash in this week, so let’s get to it!

Games to Target

New England Patriots (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 52.5 O/U

NE: 27 implied points | PIT: 25.5 implied points

This will likely be one of the more popular games people will look to target and “game stack” on Sunday, as it is the only match-up on the main slate with a total over 50+ points. With a close spread, there is also some shootout potential here and currently 63% of the public is taking the over to hit in this one. These are two evenly matched offenses facing off as well. Pittsburgh averages 408.1 YPG (4th) while averaging 28.2 PPG (4th). New England averages 397.1 YPG (5th) and averages 28.0 PPG (6th). The defenses are solid but neither unit seems completely capable of stopping the opposing offenses. The Steelers, by the numbers, are perhaps the better defense of the two, only allowing 330.8 YPG (7th) but are a middling scoring defense that gives up 23.5 PPG (16th). New England surrenders 372.5 YPG (22nd) but has the slightly better scoring defense, allowing 22.5 PPG (12th). These two offenses operate pretty quickly as well, so we could have a higher than average amount of plays run which is, of course, good for fantasy. New England ranks 3rd in seconds per play run and Pittsburgh ranks 11th. 

Oakland Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3) | 46 O/U

OAK: 21.5 implied points | CIN: 24.5 implied points

This is the sort of game that will only appeal to diehard fans of either team and fantasy football goofballs like us. If you’ve been playing NFL DFS this season, you’re well aware of why I’m picking this game as one to target and it isn’t because of any sort of high-powered offense being involved. Instead, it’s the fact that this game features the two worst scoring defenses in the NFL. The Bengals defense has simply been a joke all season allowing 421.9 YPG (32nd) and 30.5 PPG (32nd). The Raiders aren’t much better, as they give up 392.2 YPG (28th) and 29.8 PPG (31st). So typically these may not be two offenses you’d trust in DFS this season but it will definitely be worth considering some of these guys in your lineups. Either team could realistically go out there and look like some kind of knock-off version of the Kansas City Chiefs when they take the field.

Quarterbacks to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Andrew Luck (DK: $6.4k | FD: $8.1k) vs. DAL

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Looking at the main slate options, it’s pretty tough to justify spending up at quarterback this week with guys like Mahomes, Brees, and Newton playing in primetime. However, Luck is appealing for tournaments this week playing at home as the Colts are fighting for a spot in the postseason. Dallas is a pretty tough match-up, allowing just 226.5 P/YPG (9th) and 18.9 PPG (2nd) but Luck has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 11 of 13 games this season and came up a yard shy of throwing for 400 yards last week on the road against a tough defense in Houston. Luck has also averaged +6.1 fantasy points at home this season. I think you can get him at single digit ownership this week.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Lamar Jackson (DK: $5.9k | FD: $7.7k) vs. TB

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Joe Flacco appears to be healthy and ready to suit up this week but HC John Harbaugh has already come out and announced that Jackson will remain the starter, as he has led the Ravens to a 3-1 record in his four starts with the only loss coming in overtime to the Chiefs. Rostering a quarterback in DFS that has the rushing ability of Jackson is a huge plus. I feel people will be more inclined to flock to Josh Allen this week with his recent rushing dominance but I’m a bit worried about how efficient he’s been in this three game time frame (111.7 R/YPG on just 10.3 carries per game) and the strong possibility those numbers come back to earth a bit. He did, after all, break the all time rushing record for a quarterback in a three game stretch. In his four games as the starter, Jackson is averaging 16.75 rushing attempts per game for for 84 YPG. That seems much more sustainable to go along with the 20-25 pass attempts he’ll give you. Let’s also not forget that this Tampa Bay defense allows the 6th most yards with 387.9 YPG and the 3rd most points with 29.5 PPG. The possibility of Flacco checking in at QB if the Ravens happen to fall behind on the scoreboard or if Jackson continues to struggle passing the ball makes this pick a little risky but I’d be pretty surprised if that happens. I believe the Ravens' defense is stout enough to lessen the worry of them falling behind considerably.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Derek Carr (DK: $5.4k | FD: $6.8k) @ CIN

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Carr has been very solid the past two weeks, completing 54 of 72 passes (75% completion rate) for 607 yards and five touchdowns. He is spreading the ball around pretty well and now gets to face this putrid Bengals defense that allows the 4th most passing yards (273.8 P/YPG) and, as mentioned above, featured the worst scoring defense in the league allowing 30.5 PPG. Despite his recent production, this is clearly a pure match-up based pick and he’s priced cheap enough to where even if he has a poorer-than-expected outing, I don’t think it’ll kill your lineup. Though a third consecutive 20+ fantasy point performance is definitely well within the realm of possibilities.

Running Backs to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Saquon Barkley (DK: $9.4k | FD: $9.4k) vs. TEN

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

This Titans defense is a tough unit but Barkley has clearly solidified his status of “match-up proof”. With 100+ scrimmage yards in 12 of 13 games this season, he is consistently one of the safest assets in fantasy football week in and week out. He’s 5th among NFL running backs with an 81.3% offensive snap percentage and sees a healthy 22.1 touches per game. Tennessee does allow the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs but that doesn’t exactly sway me from keeping him in consideration this week. The Giants are also 2.5 point home favorites. In the two other games in which the Giants have been favored this season, Barkley has averaged 35.45 FPPG. Small sample size but worth noting. He should make for a strong stud back to build around once again this week.

Leonard Fournette (DK: $7.5k | FD: $8.2k) vs. WAS

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

This looks like a great spot to hop back on the Fournette train after he burned anyone who played him in the Thursday night slates last week (virtually everyone). The Redskins are getting torn up by running backs in recent weeks and are allowing 155.8 R/YPG the last four games and 29.4 FPPG allowed to RBs in that span. The Jaguars are also seven point home favorites and, despite the heavy likelihood of this being a very low scoring game, the predicted game script should serve Fournette well. There’s a heavy possibility he garners 25+ touches and not a ton of ownership. Stacking the Jags DST and Fournette could be a solid strategy.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

David Johnson (DK: $7.1k | FD: $7.4k) @ ATL

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

DJ gets one of the juiciest match-ups a running back could ask for in Atlanta this week. The Falcons allow the third most FPPG to opposing RB's (31.7 PPG) and, as I’ve probably annoyingly reiterated all season, playing pass catching backs against them is always advisable, as they have allowed the most receptions (100) and receiving yards (872) to running backs this year. Johnson is limited a bit by the general ineptitude of his offense but since Byron Leftwich took over as the Cardinals offensive coordinator in week eight, he has seen at least 19 touches in every game. Last week he also saw a season high in catches (8) and targets (10). He’s on a four week touchdown drought but given the volume he should see this week and the vulnerability of the Falcons defense, there’s a great chance that streak ends.

Joe Mixon (DK: $6.1k | FD: $7.8k) vs. OAK

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Mixon is a more preferred target on DraftKings where he definitely seems mispriced given the match-up. Mixon’s touches have been a bit up and down recently but he’s coming off a 31-touch week (26 carries, 5 receptions) on 62 offensive snaps. A market share percentage of 50% which easily led all NFL running backs in week 14. Oakland allows the 2nd most rushing YPG (144.5) at 4.8 YPC. Cincinnati is also a home favorite by three points. Being a home favorite is a rare occurrence for them lately and in four games this season where they were favored, Mixon has averaged 24.15 FPPG. If he gets the 20+ touches that he *should* get this week, it’s hard to see him putting up a dud performance here.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Jeff Wilson Jr. (DK: $4.6k | FD: $6.1k) vs. SF

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Wilson was one of the primary value targets last week as the injuries to running backs around the league are beginning to pile up. Assuming Matt Breida has to miss another week (yet to be determined) then Wilson would be in line for another hefty workload as he saw 24 total touches in his spot start last week. The 49ers faced Seattle just two weeks ago, which is where Wilson was forced to step in after Breida went down. In that game he took 15 carries for 61 yards and caught eight of nine targets for 73 yards. His involvement in the passing game took a steep nosedive last week but really when you’re seeing 20+ touches at his current salaries there’s plenty of meat on the bone to have great production. Seattle allows the 9th most FPPG to running backs and they’ll be on a short week after shutting down the Vikings on Monday Night Football.

Jordan Howard (DK: $3.9k | FD: $5.5k) vs. GB

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Howard is dirt cheap across the industry and is coming in off of his first 100+ yard rushing performance of the season. He’s received 17+ touches in three of the last four weeks and in the Bears’ first meeting with the Packers way back in week one, Howard accounted for 107 total yards on 20 touches. Howard has definitely fallen well below fantasy expectations for much of this season but there’s potential value with him this week facing Green Bay and their 24th ranked rush defense that allows 126.2 YPG at 4.6 YPC.

Wide Receivers to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Antonio Brown (DK: $8.5k | FD: $8.6k) vs. NE

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Brown is coming off a poor game and in a week where most people will be paying down at wide receiver, AB could be a nice leverage play in tournaments. Brown could definitely be considered one of the “diva” star receivers in the league and usually if he ever voices his displeasure with his role in the offense, it isn’t long before he’s getting a ton of targets. He’ll draw a tough match-up with Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore who is having a great season but given the game environment, there is potential for 15+ targets heading Brown’s way. With JuJu Smith-Schuster’s recent success, New England can’t completely focus their attention on taking Brown’s production away. As long as Ben Roethlisberger is a full go in this one, which he should be, Brown could churn out one of his “boom” games this week at low ownership.

Julian Edelman (DK: $7.2k | FD: $7.2k) @ PIT

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Sticking in the same game, Edelman should offer a solid floor if you want to spend up on a receiver without reaching for the very top guys. The Steelers have had issues covering inside this year and are giving up 24.4 FPPG to slot WRs. In a game where Tom Brady may be forced to pass upwards of 40 times, it’s tough not to like Edelman who has a 23% target share since returning from suspension in week five and is averaging nine targets per week.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Tyler Boyd (DK: $5.7k | FD: $6.7k) vs. OAK

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

He doesn’t have an ideal quarterback situation right now with Jeff Driskel at the helm but Boyd has had two solid games in the last three weeks with Driskel under center. The match-up with Raiders slot CB Nick Nelson is also a prime spot for fantasy success. JuJu Smith-Schuster just put up an 8/130/2 stat line in this same match-up playing mostly out of the slot last week. Boyd should have a secure target share and see at least eight looks come his way with potential for double-digit targets. Against this Oakland defense, he can turn that into plenty of production to pay off these fairly modest DFS salaries.

Chris Godwin (DK: $4.9k | FD: $5.4k) @ BAL

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Godwin turned out to be a popular option last week and ended up putting up a major dud performance, posting one catch for 13 yards. He and Jameis Winston could not get a reliable connection going despite Winston sending ten targets Godwin’s way. He’ll get a tough match-up against Baltimore who allows the third fewest FPPG to WR's but the Bucs are still one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL and with DeSean Jackson likely to miss another week, there will be opportunity for Godwin to bounce back. He seems like a great pivot play in tournaments off of some other cheaper wide receivers in this range.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Dante Pettis (DK: $4.4k | FD: $5.5k) vs. SEA

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Pettis is sure to be one of the more popular salary saving options at the position this week so surely he won’t let us down, right? His four touchdowns in the last three weeks definitely add to his appeal but we never want to count too much on players finding the endzone. What’s most promising about his potential is three consecutive weeks of seeing seven targets from Nick Mullens. The 49ers could very well find themselves playing from behind for much of this game as five point home underdogs so we could see another solid volume day from Pettis once again. Seattle gives up the 12th most FPPG to WR's and will travel to San Francisco with one less day of rest than usual.

Curtis Samuel (DK: $4.3k | FD: $5.7k) vs. NO

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

The Panthers will take on the Saints on Monday Night Football and Samuel will have a chance to continue his sneaky solid stretch of games as he’ll draw a favorable match-up with slot corner PJ Williams. He went for a team high 80 yards receiving last week and has seen 19 targets in the past two games. Cam Newton may need to pass quite a bit if they hope to upset the Saints at home and break their five game losing streak to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Tight Ends to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Eric Ebron (DK: $5.9k | FD: $6.5k) vs. DAL

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Ebron continues to be a touchdown scoring machine after hauling in his 13th of the season last week in Houston. He honestly has a higher chance of finding the endzone each week than most running backs. Dallas is pretty vulnerable to the position, as they allow the 11th most FPPG to TE's and with Andrew Luck’s well documented love for looking in the direction of his tight ends, Ebron has plenty of 10+ target potential.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Kyle Rudolph (DK: $3.5k | FD: $5.6k) vs. MIA

Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

After an embarrassing offensive performance on Monday Night at Seattle, the Vikings opted to part ways with offensive coordinator John DeFilippo. It’s never safe to assume what sort of changes a new or interim coordinator will bring but Rudolph is third in the NFL on offensive snap percentage (88.8%) and should continue to be on the field nearly every play. If the Vikings can find something new that works and can get Rudolph more involved, particularly in the redzone where he and Cousins have been off all year, then he’s worth some sneaky tournament consideration this week. Miami has allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends in the league this year with nine (tied with Oakland and Carolina) so perhaps there’s potential Rudolph can find paydirt for the first time since week three.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Anthony Firkser (DK: $2.9k | FD: $5.1k) @ NYG

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

As usual with tight end plays, the cheap plays tend to be more of DraftKings plays since the minimum salary for TE's goes all the way down to $2,500. With the Titans losing Jonnu Smith and already without Delanie Walker, Firkser is the most likely candidate to take over as the receiving threat at tight end. He’s caught 100% of his (sixteen) targets this year and has caught at least three passes in four consecutive weeks -- which is a good sign considering Jonnu Smith started all of those games healthy. The Giants are middle of the road in DvP against tight ends allowing the 17th most points but this is more of a cheap salary plus predicted opportunity type scenario for a team with limited receiving options.

Defensive Breakdown

Houston Texans (DK: $3.2k | FD: $4.6k) @ NYJ

I feel like the Texans won’t get as much attention as the Jaguars and Ravens up at the top of DST pricing but they’ll face a Jets team projected to score just 17.75 points this week and Sam Darnold who leads the NFL in interceptions (15) despite missing several games this season. They should be a high floor + high upside option this week after a rough performance against Andrew Luck and the Colts.

Chicago Bears (DK: $2.9k | FD: $3.7k) vs. GB

The Bears proved last week that they could perhaps be considered “match-up proof” after holding Sean McVay’s offense to a meager six points and racking up four picks, three sacks and a safety. I wouldn’t expect Aaron Rodgers to be prone to making the same mistakes Goff did -- after all, Rodgers does currently have the longest streak in NFL history of most pass attempts without an interception (368). Still, people are going to see the match-up and avoid the Bears just like they did last week. The Bears are at home in a divisional game looking to further cement their spot in the postseason. They’ll be amped up, I have no doubt.

Thursday Night Special

Demarcus Robinson (DK: $3.7k / $6.9k Showdown | FD: $5.2k / $7k Single Game)

Everyone is well aware of the injuries to the running backs on both sides of this game, so you don’t need me to tell you Damien Williams or Justin Jackson could be viable picks. There is, however, a void to be filled in the Chiefs receiving corps with Sammy Watkins potentially done for the season and Tyreek Hill coming in hobbled on a short week. Chris Conley plays nearly 100% of snaps and saw 15 combined targets in weeks 11 and 13 with Watkins out but caught just two of three targets for 13 yards last week. Instead, Demarcus Robinson stepped into a larger role and caught five of his seven targets for 42 yards while playing on 65% of snaps. Not astounding numbers but I’m interested to see if his role grows even more this week. In the past two games, Robinson is third on the team in air yards with 114, trailing only Tyreek Hill (247) and Travis Kelce (242). His average depth of target, or aDOT, in that span is also 14 yards down field which is actually slightly longer than speedster Hill’s of 13.7 yards aDOT. On an offense as prolific as the Chiefs, any viable option must be considered and I doubt Robinson is very high owned on the single game Thursday slates if you’re looking for a risky GPP option!

Weekly NFL Freeroll

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That’s it for week fifteen! As always, please hit me with any thoughts you may have on the newsletters or questions you have for the slate! Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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