Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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After Saturday’s NFL triple-header, we’ll be rolling straight into a Sunday full of football which will feature eleven games on the DFS main slate. Which teams are ready to solidify their spots in the postseason? Plenty of parts are still in motion but we should have a really solid idea of what the playoff picture will look like come Tuesday morning. There is plenty to get to, so let’s get this one rolling. Also, best of luck to anyone who will be playing in your season long league’s fantasy football championship this week!

Games to Target

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins (EVEN) | 46.5 O/U

CIN: 23.25 implied points | MIA: 23.25 implied points

CIN Off. Pace Rank: 5th | MIA Off. Pace Rank: 6th

The thought process behind targeting this game is the same as last week when the MIA/NYG game (which saw 56 total points scored) was highlighted in this section. Two bad defensive teams will be taking the field against fast paced offenses in a game which Vegas currently has set as a pick ‘em. There is plenty of potentially cheap value to be had here if this game does indeed produce four, five, maybe six touchdowns and both quarterbacks are realistically in play as well. Two key injuries to monitor here include WR DeVante Parker and RB Joe Mixon -- both are currently questionable for this week. Those two guys have really been putting up strong numbers for their respective teams over the last several weeks so if either guy is forced to sit out, some production will have to trickle down elsewhere.

Quarterbacks to Target

Russell Wilson | DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. ARI

Realistically, if you’re spending up at quarterback this week, the safest route is to find a way to afford Lamar Jackson. But Wilson is worth a shot as a leverage play, especially when you take into consideration his match-up. Arizona has been downright awful in pass defense all season and they’re giving up 26.0 FPPG to opposing QBs. After playing on the road in five of their last seven games, the Seahawks return home to Seattle where Wilson has averaged 27.7 FPPG this season. As long as the Cardinals can keep this game relatively competitive, Wilson should likely post a strong fantasy performance.

Ryan Fitzpatrick | DK: $6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CIN

If you’re scoping out a cheaper QB option, you probably can’t go wrong getting a little Fitzmagic in your life. In the nine games since week seven, Fitzpatrick has attempted at least 33 passes and completed at least 21 in every game. He had 20+ fantasy points with 2+ touchdowns in five of those nine games. Cincinnati’s defense is worse on the ground than through the air but they’re still giving up the 10th most FPPG to QBs. Miami is the second most pass happy team in the NFL, as they run a pass play 66.2% of the time. So you should be getting a solid floor/ceiling option from Fitz this week and he won’t break the bank.

Running Backs to Target

Joe Mixon | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.8k | @ MIA

We will need to monitor Mixon’s availability for Sunday after he picked up a mid-week calf injury. But this game is a 1:00 ET kickoff so we should know in plenty of time what his status will be. Assuming he is anywhere close to 100%, I believe he’s worth firing up against a bad Miami front seven that allows the 4th most FPPG to RBs. Mixon has racked up 282 yards on the ground against the Patriots and Browns over the last two weeks while averaging 5.9 YPC. He’s also notched six catches for 60 yards in that span as well. The Bengals seem committed to giving their workhorse back all the touches he can handle down the stretch. If he is a full go, he should be considered a very viable DFS option once you get past the McCaffrey/Carson/Saquon/Zeke-caliber players.

Marlon Mack | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.3k | vs. CAR

After returning from a hand injury that sidelined him for a couple of weeks, Mack hasn’t found much success. However, his match-ups have been pretty brutal as both Tampa Bay and New Orleans rank inside the top five of fewest FPPG allowed to RBs. Both games were on the road as well. Now Mack will get a chance to run against a Panthers defense that allows the most FPPG to RBs and has given up 23 rushing TDs this season -- nine more than the next closest teams. Mack will probably handle 15 or so touches and with that sort of volume, there is a very strong chance he’ll find the endzone against this defense.

Austin Ekeler | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.8k | @ OAK

There are very few running backs that have a better floor + ceiling combo than Ekeler, especially in full PPR formats. Ekeler has at least double-digit DraftKings points in 13-of-14 games this season with seven games of 23+ DKFP. He probably deserves to be priced a bit higher but the fact that he shares a backfield with Melvin Gordon III likely keeps his salaries in check. Gordon did fumble twice last week so you have to wonder if any ‘doghouse’ narrative will carry over into Sunday. Regardless, Ekeler has produced extremely well even when playing on 40-50% of snaps.

DeAndre Washington | DK: $4k, FD: $5.6k | vs. LAC

Josh Jacobs has already been ruled out of this week’s game due to a lingering shoulder injury so that should lead the way to a featured role for DeAndre Washington. When Jacobs was forced to sit out in week 14, Washington ran 14 times for 53 yards and a touchdown while adding six catches on seven targets for 43 yards. Good enough for 21.6 DKFP. His 3.3 YPC average on the season is far from impressive but based on volume alone he should have a major window to hit value against a Chargers defense which gives up the 11th most FPPG to RBs.

Wide Receivers to Target

DeVante Parker | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.9k | vs. CIN

If you exclude the week 14 game where he suffered a concussion early in the first half against the Jets, Parker has 24 catches for 457 yards and four touchdowns over his last four full games. The match-up isn’t very concerning and he should, once again, be Fitzpatrick’s go-to receiver. Parker popped up on the injury report this week with a hip injury but I just saw that he got in a full practice today (Thursday) so that questionable tag should disappear soon.

Terry McLaurin | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.5k | vs. NYG

It seems the Buckeye connection is now in full effect between Dwayne Haskins and Terry McLaurin. Over the last two weeks McLaurin has caught 9-of-12 targets from Haskins for 187 yards and two touchdowns. Now they’ll get to work against a very poor Giants secondary which has given up the 6th most FPPG this season and recently cut starting cornerback, Janoris Jenkins. The quality stat lines could keep on rolling this Sunday.

DK Metcalf | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.3k | vs. ARI

Any time a competent pass offense is facing this Cardinals secondary, it has typically been pretty wise to get some exposure to those QBs and receivers. Arizona has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to perimeter receivers in their last eight games. Metcalf runs 88% of his routes on the outside and has either 6+ targets or a touchdown in eight consecutive games. It has been a while since he had his huge 6/123/1 game against Tampa Bay in week nine, but if there is a spot for him to hit a similar ceiling game, it's this week against the Cardinals.

Mike Williams | DK: $5k, FD: $6.5k | vs. OAK

Among wide receivers with at least 30 targets this season, Williams has the highest aDOT (average depth of target) in the NFL of 18.0 yards (on 81 targets). He has routinely come down with some highlight reel catches in recent weeks and he’ll get a strong match-up against an Oakland secondary that has surrendered the 4th most FPPG to perimeter receivers this year.

Curtis Samuel | DK: $4.5k, FD: $6k | @ IND

The major news out of Carolina this week is the promotion of rookie Will Grier to the starting quarterback role. Many may be hesitant to trust any Panther receivers, but honestly, Grier can’t be much worse than Kyle Allen. Christian McCaffrey will still obviously run the show as the stud in this offense and DJ Moore is “the guy” among wide receivers. But Samuel has been utilized quite a bit this season and averages seven targets per game. He’ll be a pretty decent guy to roll out as a bit of a punt this week.

Tight Ends to Target

Zach Ertz | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.9k | vs. DAL

We pretty much know that Ertz is going to get forced the ball all game here. He has at least 10 targets in five of the Eagles last six games and has found the endzone five times in that stretch. Dallas has been pretty bad at guarding opposing tight ends this year, as they’re giving up the 5th most FPPG to the position. If a wide receiver had been putting up the sort of production that Ertz has since week nine, they would likely be at least $1,000 more expensive than Ertz is now. So if you view him as a low end WR1, you’re getting a solid discount even though he is the most expensive tight end on the slate.

Jacob Hollister | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.7k | vs. ARI

It’s time to ride the “tight end versus Arizona” flow chart again. The Cardinals have easily given up the most FPPG to tight ends this season and Hollister should play around 75% of snaps and be the primary pass catching tight end. Hollister could once again show off some of that fantasy upside that he put on display in weeks nine and ten.

Greg Olsen | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.9k | @ IND

After being sidelined the last two weeks, Olsen has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol and should be ready to suit up this week. I wouldn’t be looking to target him in cash games but it’s pretty well known that young, inexperienced NFL QB's (i.e. Will Grier) tend to lean on their big pass catching tight ends. Olsen catching six or more passes on short/intermediate routes could be a pretty likely scenario and there’s always a chance he rumbles his way to the endzone.

Defensive Breakdown

Denver Broncos | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5k | vs. DET

Obviously this is a better value on DraftKings where three other defenses are priced above them. The once vaunted Broncos D hasn’t made too much noise this year and they have just three games with double digit fantasy points. But David Blough and the depleted Lions offense are coming to the Mile High City, where Denver has allowed opponents to score just 17.5 PPG. This is as good of a spot as any to roll them out this week. Detroit’s 15.8 implied point total is the lowest among all teams this week.

Philadelphia Eagles | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. DAL

For a cheaper, but riskier, option you could consider the Eagles at home against a banged up Dak Prescott. So far this week, Dak has yet to throw in practice due to a sprained right shoulder. The assumption is that he’ll end up starting but he may not be near 100%. The Eagles may have a chance to pick off a couple of wayward passes that Prescott would otherwise typically make. If Dak can’t suit up, Cooper Rush is his backup. Who? Exactly.

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🔥 SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play 🔥

My SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play for this week is Austin Ekeler (1.6x multipler). As mentioned above, there is a decent chance that Melvin Gordon enters into this week in the doghouse after losing two fumbles last week. Regardless of the time share, Ekeler has been very consistent all year while exhibiting a very high ceiling. We should see him garner some strong usage against Oakland this week and the 1.6x multiplier is too good to pass up.

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