Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS

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The regular season is sadly nearing the end but this is arguably one of the most exciting weeks of football. There is a lot on the line in many of these games that will feature playoff implications and we’re sure to have some drama-filled moments this week. Check out all of the playoff-clinching scenarios here. For DFS purposes, this is also an important week to track what the intentions are for some teams who are out of the playoff race. Even for those with nothing significant to play for, the last couple of games can be very useful in evaluating young talent for the next season. So without further ado, let’s set our sights on week 16! And also I’d like to wish good luck to anyone out there going for a championship of their own in season-long fantasy football leagues!

Games to Target

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5) | 53.5 O/U

PIT: 24 implied points | NO: 29.5 implied points

This game to target should come as no surprise, as it is easily the match-up with the highest total on the main slate and it brings with it some heavy playoff implications. In case you missed it, you can see the entire scope of playoff scenarios linked above in the intro. But essentially, the Saints will lock up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win and the Steelers would clinch the AFC North with a win and Ravens loss/tie. These two defenses are actually playing really well -- perhaps better than they have all season. However, this isn’t stopping 63% of the betting public from taking the over to hit in this game. I believe from a DFS perspective you may want to target players in this match-up more for tournaments rather than cash games, as there is some risk we could see a bit of a defensive struggle arise. With so much at stake for these two teams, things could go very off-script from what the game total and spreads would tell us.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7) | 47.5 O/U

TB: 19.75 implied points | DAL: 26.75 implied points

Dallas will clinch the NFC East with a win against Tampa Bay this week and are in line to bounce back at home against a soft defense after getting shutout on the road in Indy last week. Tampa Bay, of course, doesn’t have anything to play for and their offense has struggled the past couple of weeks, combining for just 26 points in that span. They get a tough test on the road against a very good Dallas defense but the Bucs still rank 3rd in the NFL in total offense (416.6 YPG) so perhaps they find a spark somewhere. The preferred options in this one will lie on the Cowboys' side of the ball, as they have a QB/WR/RB trio in Prescott, Cooper and Elliot that has the ability to put up elite fantasy scoring. Overall, offensive scoring has been proven to be higher on average for games played inside of domes so that adds a hint of extra interest for me in this match-up as well.

Quarterbacks to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Ben Roethlisberger (DK: $6.7k | FD: $8.7k) @ NO

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

As is the case most weeks, spending up at quarterback doesn’t seem like the optimal route for cash games but Big Ben looks primed to be a nice target for tournaments. Playing in New Orleans is never easy and the Saints defense has been playing out of their minds as of late. However, Roethlisberger leads a prolific Steelers offense with some of the best weapons in the NFL at his disposal. He has passed for 300+ yards in half of his 14 games this season -- considering the Saints possess the top overall run defense in the league as well as Pittsburgh being 5.5 point underdogs, there’s potential for this to be one of those games where Roethlisberger attempts upwards of 50+ passes. His ceiling is as high as any quarterback playing this week.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Dak Prescott (DK: $5.7k | FD: $7.3k) vs. TB

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

A big “hooplah” is often made of the amount of success that guys like Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger have when it comes to playing on the road versus at home but this season Dak Prescott has actually had one of the highest home/road splits in the league. Prescott is averaging an additional 7.5 fantasy points in home games this year and will draw one of the friendliest match-ups of the week against the Bucs who allow 22.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks on the season. The addition of Amari Cooper to this team has done wonders for Prescott’s fantasy upside. The Cowboys implied point total of 26.75 represents the 6th highest total of any team playing this week. He’s not running the ball as much as he did to start the year but the added potential to provide value with his legs is always a bonus to go along with the fact that Tampa Bay allows the 6th most passing yards per game (258.5 P/YPG). Assuming Ezekiel Elliot doesn’t soak up all of the scores for the Cowboys offense, I have a hard time imagining Dak struggling to return value this week.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Sam Darnold (DK: $4.9k | FD: $6.7k) vs. GB

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Speaking of quarterbacks with massive home/road splits, it shouldn’t come as much surprise that the rookie Darnold has found more success playing at MetLife Stadium this season. In five home games this season Sam Darnold is averaging 18.9 (DraftKings) fantasy points. In his six road games, you can nearly cut that number in half, as he has averaged a paltry 9.9 fantasy points per game -- that’s a hefty nine point difference. With the likelihood that Aaron Rodgers suits up for this game, the chances of the Jets playing from behind are pretty high. Though, no matter how the game script unfolds the Jets really have nothing to lose in letting Darnold throw it in the vicinity of 40 times this week as they look to further evaluate their young QB. Darnold is dirt cheap across the industry and I believe he can be a viable punt option in all formats.

Running Backs to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

Ezekiel Elliot (DK: $9k | FD: $8.8k) vs. TB

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

The volume for Zeke lately has been incredible for fantasy as he has seen 25+ touches in six straight weeks. Even last week where the Cowboys couldn’t score a single point, Elliot wouldn’t have killed your lineups as he churned out 128 yards of total offense that included seven receptions. He’s easily clearing career highs in the receiving categories and in the last four games he is averaging 7.5 catches on 8.3 targets to go along with just under 24 rushing attempts per game. The Cowboys are hefty seven point home favorites and Tampa Bay allows the sixth most fantasy points to opposing running backs (28.8 FPPG). Really not much to think about here. He makes a great option in all formats.

Saquon Barkley (DK: $7.9k | FD: $9k) @ IND

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Barkley is coming in off of his first real dud of the season after the Giants just couldn’t do a damn thing on offense against Tennessee last week which resulted in a shutout. On DraftKings, this has resulted in a massive $1,500 drop in salary, so I’d clearly prefer him there. Indianapolis has a pretty tough run defense as they allow the 8th fewest rushing yards (103.6 R/YPG) but, much like the Atlanta defense, they funnel a ton of targets and receptions to running backs -- which is of course one of Barkley’s specialties. The Colts have allowed 100 receptions to running backs this season and overall allow the 13th most fantasy points to opposing RBs (25.5 FPPG). It’s not an ideal situation, but I expect Barkley to bounce back this week.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Joe Mixon (DK: $7.1k | FD: $8.2k) @ CLE

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

The Bengals are very limited with who they can distribute the ball to and in the past two weeks that has resulted in back-to-back 30+ touch games for Mixon. There is some risk of Cleveland just stacking eight in the box on nearly every play but at some point, volume trumps all. I’m willing to take a chance on a talented running back who could easily see 25 rushes and 5+ receptions against a Browns team that allows the 8th most points to running backs (27.2 FPPG). In their first meeting in week 12, Mixon averaged 6.4 YPC and caught all seven of his targets for 66 yards. He didn’t find the endzone in that game but has a solid opportunity to stroll into paydirt this week.

Marlon Mack (DK: $5.5k | FD: $7k) vs. NYG

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Mack took a difficult match-up with the Cowboys defense head on last Sunday and gashed through them for a career high 139 yards on 27 carries (5.1 YPC) and two touchdowns. The Colts are nearly double-digit home favorites against the Giants, which will set up well for another nice outing for Mack on Sunday. Since trading away Damon Harrison, the Giants run defense has been the worst in the league. The Colts are essentially in must win mode to keep their playoff hopes rolling into week 17 and we should expect another heavy dose of Mack this week.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Elijah McGuire (DK: $4.7k | FD: $5.7k) vs. GB

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

McGuire has taken on a featured role the past couple of weeks with Isaiah Crowell on injured reserve. He has had two match-ups against tough run defenses (Houston and Buffalo) but has produced nice fantasy results both times. He’s saving face a bit by scoring a touchdown in each of those two games since his 35 rushing attempts in those games, he only has 102 yards (2.9 YPC). Green Bay will present itself as a more promising match-up, however, as they allow the 11th most rushing yards (124.1 R/YPG) at 4.5 YPC. McGuire is also active receiving the ball and should most certainly see a handful of targets come his way.

Kalen Ballage (DK: $3.7k | FD: $5.5k) vs. JAX

Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

This is for certain a GPP only dart throw considering the tough match-up to go along with the uncertainty of whether or not Ballage will operate as Miami’s primary running back. Speaking towards the latter concern, it would make sense that he will take on a featured role this week when looking at the touch distribution in week 15. After Frank Gore went down early in their game against Minnesota, Ballage ended up playing on 26 snaps (49% snap rate) and Kenyan Drake was in on 28 snaps (53%). However, despite a fairly even snap share, it was Ballage who garnered 13 total touches compared to just four for Drake. His 75 yard touchdown scamper obviously aided his fantasy day but Miami is one of those teams that has nothing to play for, so it would make sense that they may want to see what they have in the young running back by giving him a large work load this week.

Wide Receivers to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

DeAndre Hopkins (DK: $8.6k | FD: $8.8k) @ PHI

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Hopkins reminded everyone of the kind of upside he can bring to the table after dominating the Jets for 10 catches, 170 yards and two touchdowns. He gets another juicy match-up against the Eagles who allow the 3rd most points to wide receivers (42.7 FPPG). Houston will clinch the AFC South with a win this week, so expect another heavily involved day from Hopkins, who leads the league with a 31% target share.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (DK: $8k | FD: $8k) @ NO

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Smith-Schuster has had kind of a bizarre “reverse splits” season up to this point. He is putting up some great games on the road while struggling (in comparison) when at home. He’s averaging +11 (DraftKings) fantasy points when the Steelers travel away from Pittsburgh this season (14.7 FPPG home, 25.7 FPPG away). I believe we can expect the Saints to key in on stopping Antonio Brown, so look for Smith-Schuster to see more coverage from Eli Apple, which can be an exploitable match-up for Ben Roethlisberger to target.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Amari Cooper (DK: $7.5k | FD: $7k) vs. TB

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Cooper has displayed the highest ceiling of any receiver all season but still remains modestly priced. His DFS salaries make sense though, considering he is a pretty boom/bust type of player. Though, as I noted above, Dak Prescott plays considerably better at home so we should give a bit of a confidence bump to Cooper as well. He’ll get to work against the Bucs secondary that has the 6th worst DvP to wide receivers and allow 38.5 FPPG to the position. In four favored games this season that Cooper has played in, he is averaging 35.08 FPPG… not too shabby!

Robert Woods (DK: $6.6k | FD: $7.5k) @ ARI

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

The expectation is that Woods will avoid coverage from Patrick Peterson for most of this game and targeting a key piece of the Rams' offense is generally a good strategy. Woods has a super solid floor, as he averages nearly nine targets a game and hasn’t gone below 67 yards receiving since week one. He just hasn’t broken loose for one of his ceiling games in a while. It’s currently unclear just how banged up Todd Gurley is but the expectation is that he plays but Los Angeles may want to be cautious with his usage in preparation for the playoffs. If they take a more pass heavy approach, Woods has a chance at a big day and I don’t expect a ton of ownership to be on him.

💲 Low Salary 💲

Robby Anderson (DK: $4.5k | FD: $5.9k) vs. GB

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Anderson has seen excellent volume recently with 25 targets over the last three weeks and a 27% target share in that span. He should be in line for plenty of looks again as Quincy Enunwa (second on team with a 19% target share in that three game span) is in serious jeopardy of missing this game. Anderson is also a big play specialist and should see coverage from Jaire Alexander who has had a very solid rookie campaign but is prone to giving up long plays. Anderson should be viable in all formats and makes for a super cheap stack option with Sam Darnold.

Antonio Callaway (DK: $3.9k | FD: $5.1k) vs. CIN

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

It just wouldn’t seem right to go a full newsletter without mentioning a single player going up against the Bengals' defense. Callaway is consistently playing around 70-75% of snaps and should see between five to eight targets this week. The Bengals are allowing 29.5 PPG so we can expect the Browns to move the ball with ease in this game. Callaway is a key redzone weapon, as he is second on the team in redzone targets and has three touchdowns coming from inside the 20 yard line this year. We could definitely see a ceiling game from him this Sunday.

Tight Ends to Target

💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲

George Kittle (DK: $6k | FD: $7.4k) vs. CHI

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

The tight end position is as murky as ever and spending up at the position only ever seems appealing for tournaments and even then it’s usually a tough pill to swallow. Kittle gets a tough go at it with the stout Chicago defense but he’s also one of the most physically talented tight ends in the NFL. He’s shown over and over again this season that he can take any slant or post route the distance by separating from linebackers in coverage and then outrunning defensive backs that are 30+ pounds lighter than him. He’s almost guaranteed to see 8+ targets and has a great ceiling regardless of match-up.

💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲

Vance McDonald (DK: $4.1k | FD: $5.5k) @ NO

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

McDonald gives you a solid piece of this appealing New Orleans/Pittsburgh game without costing you too much salary. His lack of target security makes him relatively risky but that’s the nature of 90% of viable tight ends anyway. He’s third on the team in redzone targets where he has also caught three touchdowns this season. At the very least, McDonald has a lower risk than most TEs of not completely burning you with a dud stat line.

💲 Low Salary 💲

CJ Uzomah (DK: $3.3k | FD: $5k) @ CLE

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

At some point Uzomah has to take advantage of the extra targets he’s getting with all of the injuries to the Bengals receiving corps. In the last four weeks, while playing nearly every offensive snap, he is averaging seven targets per game but just isn’t doing a whole lot with them. Cleveland allows the fifth most fantasy points to TEs (15.2 FPPG) so we’ll see if Uzomah can turn out a decent stat line on Sunday.

Defensive Breakdown

Dallas Cowboys (DK: $2.6k | FD: $3.7k) vs. TB

Skipping the obvious, more expensive, options like the Bears and the Rams, I think the Cowboys offer up some great value playing at home against the always turnover-prone Jameis Winston who could end up throwing the ball around 40 times. Dallas also has the 4th best scoring defense in the league, allowing just 19.2 PPG. A defense this stingy at home against a super pass happy offense all sounds good to me!

New Orleans Saints (DK: $2.3k | FD: $3.5k) vs. PIT

This would be a contrarian play, of course, but the Saints defense really has been remarkable lately. I’ll let the tweet posted below from Field Yates do most of the talking but you can bet that this home crowd in New Orleans is going to be going wild in hopes that they can lock up that all important home field advantage through the playoffs.

Weekly NFL Freeroll

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That’s it for week sixteen! As always, please hit me with any thoughts you may have on the newsletters or questions you have for the slate! Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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