Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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Week 16 brings us a unique schedule which will slot three pivotal games with playoff implications into a Saturday triple-header. Those three games will be the focus of today’s NFL newsletter and tomorrow we’ll be previewing the Sunday main slate along with a SNF and MNF breakdown. With the exception of Tampa Bay, every team playing Saturday has either clinched a playoff spot and looking to lock up a top seed or is still alive in the hunt. This should be an entertaining Saturday, so let’s get on it!

Quarterbacks to Target

Deshaun Watson | DK: $7k, FD: $8.6k | @ TB

No one should be surprised by Watson being the first highlighted QB here. Despite back-to-back monstrous games by Jameis Winston, Watson still undoubtedly has the best floor of any QB this Saturday. Tampa Bay allows the 5th most FPPG to quarterbacks and though their secondary has looked improved in recent weeks, they’ve faced guys like David Blough, Jacoby Brissett, and Nick Foles -- not exactly the cream of the crop in the NFL. Watson probably doesn’t need much selling. As long as you can find the salary for him, he just feels like the guy to pay for.

Josh Allen | DK: $5.3k, FD: $7.6k | @ NE

It’s never a good feeling selecting anyone playing against that stout New England defense but Allen does enough with his legs to where he could come into play as perhaps the best value QB on Saturday. He has nine rushing scores on the year while averaging 33.4 YPG. His rushing ability has helped him retain a pretty solid floor most of the season, as he has scored below 17 FP in just two games -- though, one of those games was against the Patriots in week four (11.72 FP). It’s never easy to win in Foxborough but Allen has averaged 23.0 FPPG on the road this season and he could certainly do enough this week to flirt with 20-ish fantasy points.

Running Backs to Target

Raheem Mostert | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.1k | vs. LAR

Mostert has taken the reigns in this 49ers backfield and has played on 55% of snaps over the last month with five touchdowns in that span. His 5.7 YPC average leads all NFL running backs and he has produced plays of 15+ yards on 8.6% of his carries, which also leads the league. While Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida are still going to be factors out of this backfield, Mostert should continue to get the lion’s share of the work on a team that runs the ball at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL (49.7% of plays are runs).

James White | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.5k | vs. BUF

White is probably a guy you want to target more on DraftKings, as he has scored double-digit PPR points in 11-of-13 games this season. He is averaging five catches a game this season and, considering how much Tom Brady is struggling with his rag-tag receiving corps, White should continue to be one of the preferred targets in this offense.

Duke Johnson | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.4k | @ TB

Tampa Bay has the league’s top run defense which allows just 73.3 YPG on the ground. As a result, the sledding could be tough for Carlos Hyde as the Texans traditional ‘between the tackles’ running back. Johnson could mostly make his presence felt by catching passes out of the backfield, but don’t be shocked if he breaks one or two long runs himself. Defenses are often caught off guard when the Texans hand the ball off to Johnson -- his 5.1 YPC average ranks 5th in the league. As tough as the Bucs are on the ground, over their last four games they are allowing 6.8 receptions/game to the running back position, so this really does set up like a Duke Johnson kinda game.

Wide Receivers to Target

Robert Woods | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.2k | @ SF

The stud wide receivers on this slate are all banged up. Mike Evans is on IR while Chris Godwin, Julian Edelman, and DeAndre Hopkins are all listed as questionable heading into Saturday. Odds are that Edelman and Hopkins suit up, but Godwin look a bit more ‘iffy.’ So that leaves Robert Woods as one of the guys I would look to target. Woods runs the majority of his routes on the right side of the field, which is where San Francisco has given up the 3rd most FPPG over the last four weeks. Woods had a quiet week last week but he still saw nine targets. He now has seen at least nine targets in his last five games and is averaging 11.4 targets/game in that span. It’s really tough to trust Jared Goff in any given week but hopefully the volume leads to strong production for Woods this Saturday.

Breshad Perriman | DK: $6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. HOU

 Oh boy, does anyone else have a bad feeling about this pick or is it just me? After trending upwards for a couple weeks, Perriman came out last Sunday and put up a casual five catch, 113 yard, THREE touchdown day. Obviously, his uptick in production is in no small part thanks to the Evans/Godwin injuries. Godwin (hamstring) still has a shot to play this week but he isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, so I’d say he is trending more towards ‘doubtful’ than ‘questionable.’ Perriman would be a fade at your own risk if he is indeed Tampa Bay’s top option this week.

Deebo Samuel | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.2k | vs. LAR

Emmanuel Sanders will likely get shadow treatment from Jalen Ramsey so that will leave Samuel with more advantageous match-ups with Troy Hill and Nickel Robey-Coleman. Prior to last week (1-29-0), Samuel had at least 75 receiving yards or a touchdown in five consecutive games. Look for him to get back on track at home against the Rams.

Cole Beasley | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.8k | @ NE 

Bills leading receiver, John Brown, will get the pleasure of (likely) being shadowed by Stephon Gilmore -- arguably the league’s top cornerback this season. This may end up funneling targets towards Cole Beasley on short intermediate routes out of the slot. The Patriots are still pretty tough against slot receivers but in the first meeting between the Pats and Bills in week four, Beasley was force-fed 13 targets, catching 7 of those for 75 yards. He’s probably another guy more suited as a PPR DraftKings play.

N’Keal Harry | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. BUF

If you’re looking for a lotto ticket, Harry could be a cheap guy who cashes in several catches and a touchdown. He played on just two fewer snaps than Julian Edelman last week and hauled in a touchdown pass from Tom Brady for the second time in five games this season. After a stint on the IR to begin the year, Harry (who was the Patriots 2019 1st round pick) seems like he may be ready to take a more elevated role in this struggling offense. He should also draw the more favorable coverage of Levi Wallace on most of his snaps.

Tight Ends to Target

Tyler Higbee | DK: $5k, FD: $6.3k | @ SF

 Aside from George Kittle (DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.4k), Higbee will be the other guy who draws most of the DFS attention at this position for this Saturday slate. He simply continues to produce in Gerald Everett’s absence, having caught at least seven passes for 100+ yards in three straight weeks. The 49ers have been strong against TEs this year, but they’re beginning to struggle a bit after allowing 15.2 DraftKings FPPG to TEs over the last four weeks. Look to load up on Higbee once again, especially if Everett is ruled out.

OJ Howard | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. HOU

Howard may be dealt 10+ targets this week by default if Chris Godwin is sidelined. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin accounted for a 46% target share for Tampa Bay this season. That sort of volume obviously has to go somewhere and after hardly being involved in this offense at all this season, Howard now has eight, five, and six targets over the last three weeks while averaging 60.0 YPG in that span. If he manages to find the endzone, you’re getting great value here. Houston also allows the 10th most FPPG to the position.

Defensive Breakdown

Buffalo Bills | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.3k | @ NE

 Most people playing this slate will probably just plug in either the Pats or 49ers defense but you have to admit, the Bills don’t seem like a bad option either against a struggling Tom Brady who is only completing 50.3% of his passes over the last month. The Bills defense has also been excellent on the road this season. In seven road games, they’re allowing just 13.3 PPG while averaging 3.9 sacks/game and 10.1 FPPG.

Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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