Top NFL Plays Week #17 | Playoff Implications Galore

December 27, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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In bittersweet fashion, we have arrived at the final week of the NFL regular season. Week 17 is tricky and always poses some interesting problems to contend with when it comes to DFS. For instance, the Baltimore Ravens have locked up the AFC North division and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs so, with nothing to gain from winning this week, key starters like Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram will not see the field on Sunday. Playoff seeding implications and divisional titles are on the line all over the place -- to see a rundown of all the possible scenarios I highly recommend you check out this list (via ProFootballTalk/NBC Sports).

An added complication from this week is the fact that coaches for teams that are locked out of the playoffs may elect to play their starters in a limited fashion, or perhaps not at all, especially if there are guys who are not quite 100% heading into Sunday. Additionally, teams like Houston and Buffalo, who are essentially locked into their playoff seed, may see starters get pulled early. There is really no way to know for certain if you should or should not play these guys in DFS unless they get ruled out ahead of time (as Baltimore did with Jackson/Ingram). The safest route to take this week is to mostly stick to players on teams with something to play for. That won’t necessarily rule out every starting option on other teams for me but there is certainly that added layer of unpredictability and risk with those guys. I’ll say it again -- week 17 is tricky!

As a side note, the games with playoff implications are ‘flexed’ to identical starting times this week to prevent any one team from benefiting by knowing the results of other games. Things are going to get quite interesting this Sunday. Before the playoffs come around, let’s get one final week of profitable regular season NFL DFS action in, shall we?

Quarterbacks to Target

Jameis Winston | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k | vs. ATL

Neither team has anything to play for in this game but it seems very unlikely that Winston would not be used as the traditional starter here. Winston could, once again, be without his top two receiving options but that still may not stop him from chucking it 40+ times this week, as he has done in 9/15 games this season. You have to live with the turnovers that he accounts for but, as he has shown in recent weeks, Winston possesses one of the highest ceilings at the position. Yes, no Mike Evans/Chris Godwin does hurt his chances of having a stellar fantasy game but Winston is the ultimate wildcard and Atlanta has given up the 7th most FPPG to QBs this year.

Carson Wentz | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.7k | @ NYG

Wentz and the Eagles certainly have plenty to play for in this “win and in” game against the Giants. Wentz has also been hitting a solid late season stride, surpassing 20 DKFP in in four consecutive games, including a 325/2/0 game against the Giants three weeks ago. The G-Men have been awful in the secondary all season and have allowed the 4th most FPPG to QBs this year. If you need a solid mid-range option, Wentz looks like a solid bet this week.

Case Keenum | DK: $4.5k, FD: $6.8k | @ DAL

Due to the sizable salary differences, Keenum is more of a DraftKings play here but I suppose if you’re really pinching pennies on FanDuel you could keep him in GPP consideration. With Dwayne Haskins’ rookie campaign being wrapped up a bit early due to an ankle injury, Keenum regains his starting role and has a chance to play spoiler against the Cowboys, who need a win and an Eagles loss to squeak into the postseason. For the sort of salaries you’re getting him at, Keenum has posted several solid fantasy performances this season, including 221/2/0 day on 70.3% passing against Dallas way back in week two which netted 16.74 FP. The Cowboys pass defense has been reeling recently, as they have allowed 24.3 FPPG to opposing QBs over that last four games. If Keenum manages to get anywhere near that number, he’ll represent a tremendous value, especially at $4,500 on DK.

Running Backs to Target

Ezekiel Elliot | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | vs. WAS

In terms of “stud RBs on teams with something to play for,” Zeke is possibly the top guy to target this Sunday. The Redskins defense just got absolutely demolished by Saquon Barkley last week (279 total yards, two TDs) and have given up the 3rd most FPPG to the position this season. Zeke should see nearly every running back touch in this one. Dak Prescott is a bit banged up but the Cowboys are still 11 point favorites at home, so I don’t believe it would be too crazy to predict upwards of 30 touches for Elliot in this spot. Elliot’s floor should get an additional boost due to the fact that Washington has allowed plenty of receptions to running backs: 6.1 rec/gm (season), 7.5 rec/gm (last four).

Alvin Kamara | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.9k | @ CAR

Hey, what do you know, the (positive) touchdown regression finally made its way to Alvin Kamara after he was able to find the endzone twice in week 16. Now the Saints have several scenarios where winning this game would clinch a first-round bye and a couple other scenarios that could land them home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, so their starters should be ‘all systems go’ for this one and the match-up doesn’t get any better if you’re a Saints running back. The Panthers have given up the most FPPG to RBs this year, including a league-worst 29 rushing TDs -- eight more than the next closest team (Jaguars, 21). Kamara hasn’t had more than 14 rush attempts in a game since week five but in this match-up, around a dozen carries may be enough for him to turn in a strong fantasy day and you know he’s also going to be fairly active in the passing game.

Miles Sanders | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.4k | @ NYG

Few running backs have come on as strong down the stretch as Eagles rookie Mile Sanders. Over the last four games, Sanders has boasted a 70% snap count while garnering at least 15 rushes/game and at least five targets/game. That sort of volume will give him strong upside as we continue the trend of rolling with players on teams with something to play for. The Giants were the lone team to contain Sanders over the last month, holding him to 45 yards on 15 carries (3.0 YPC) and four catches for 24 yards back in week 14. But Sanders will have plenty of opportunities to have the last laugh against the Giants defense this week.

Damien Williams | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6.4k | vs. LAC

After missing three games due to injury, Damien Williams came out in week 16 and ran for a solid 16/65/1 stat line while catching all three of his targets for 27 yards. In that game, Williams accounted for a 53% snap count (Spencer Ware - 36%, Darwin Thompson - 9%). With Spencer Ware on IR with a torn rotator cuff, this should be Williams’ backfield to lose. LeSean McCoy will likely be active this week but he was a healthy scratch in week 15, so the signs point towards Shady losing some favor in this backfield.

Ryquell Armstead | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. IND

I’m briefly mentioning Armstead in case Leonard Fournette eventually gets ruled out. Fournette is dealing with a neck injury and while he got in a limited practice Wednesday, he was a DNP on Thursday. Considering how affected Fournette has been by injuries in his football career and the fact that Jacksonville has nothing to play for, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is ultimately shut down for the final week of the season. That would open the door for Ryquell Armstead to be the primary ball carrier on Sunday. Fournette has dominated RB touches this season (90.1% opportunity share ranks second behind only Christian McCaffrey) so Armstead has only handled 25 carries with nine receptions, but the rookie fifth-round pick was a solid college back who averaged 4.9 YPC at Temple and is a fairly capable pass catcher. I would be fairly confident rolling him out if Fournette sits.

Wide Receivers to Target

Davante Adams | DK: $8k, FD: $8.4k | @ DET

Green Bay should be plenty motivated this week, as a win would lock up a first-round bye (as well as home field advantage if SF loses). Adams is about as safe of a play as you could expect to find at the wide receiver position this week. He has drawn at least 10 targets from Aaron Rodgers in seven of his last eight games and since week 9 only Michael Thomas has more targets. Adams gets a juicy match-up with a Detroit secondary that would probably struggle to cover a piece of toast with some butter right now. Not only have they given up the 4th most FPPG to receivers this year, but their 50.6 DraftKings FPPG allowed over their last four games is the second worst mark on the slate.

Breshad Perriman | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.6k | vs. ATL

With the two key injuries to the Bucs receiving corps, you almost have to at least consider Perriman by default. He was targeted 12 times by Jameis Winston last week, which translated to a team-leading 25% target share. Winston was kind of all over the place in that game, so Perriman only came down with seven catches but he still eclipsed the 100 yard mark. Fellow WR Justin Watson (DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.1k) would also be worth a look as he was second on the team with 10 targets last week and had a very similar aDOT (average depth of target) to Perriman.

Courtland Sutton | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.1k | vs. OAK

This Raiders' secondary is all battered and bruised and could see multiple back-ups playing sizable snaps. They’ve allowed the 6th most FPPG to perimeter receivers this year (where Sutton plays 80% of the time) so if that was the best their typical starters were able to do, I wouldn’t expect much from the reserves. In week one against Oakland, Sutton posted a 7 catch, 120 yard performance and he should, once again, be the focal point of the Broncos' passing attack with a great shot at seeing 10+ targets head his way.

Greg Ward | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.6k | @ NYG

Chances are, around 99% of NFL fans never heard of this guy prior to a couple weeks ago but with all of the injuries to the Eagles receivers, he’s been one of the guys that has had to step up. Carson Wentz has targeted Ward 23 times in their last three games, including five times in the red zone. In that span, Ward has played on 71%, 75%, and 87% of snaps. It’s pretty well known how cushy this match-up is for the Philly passing game, so if you’re in need of a cheap WR option this week, Ward may be someone to keep an eye on.

N’Keal Harry | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.4k | vs. MIA

The Patriots still have to keep their foot on the gas as they look to clinch a first-round bye with a victory (or a KC loss). It’s just a prediction, but given the match-up against a soft Miami defense, I really feel like this could be a spot where they’ll look to see if their rookie first round pick is ready to step up for a postseason run. Harry is a highly talented 6’4” receiver out of Arizona State but an injury derailed much of his rookie campaign. However, he has received 50+% of offensive snaps in back-to-back weeks and with his tall frame, he could turn out to be a redzone favorite for Tom Brady moving forward. Miami has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to WRs this year and we saw a flash of vintage Tom Brady against Buffalo last week, so any viable receiving option on New England intrigues me this week.

Tight Ends to Target

Tyler Higbee | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.9k | vs. ARI

Is Higbee about to burn 50+% of the field this week? That really feels like where his ownership will wind up. The guy has four straight 100+ yard games and will face the team that has allowed THE most FPPG to TEs this season by a wide margin. And it’s the same team which Higbee first began his 100+ yard streak against back in week 13 when he caught 7-of-8 targets for 107 yards and a TD. The Rams are one of those playoff eliminated teams where I’m concerned starters may be limited or pulled early, so even though this seems like a complete smash spot, treat this like real life and approach any Ram with caution.

OJ Howard | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.5k | vs. ATL

If we keep wishing and hoping for the Howard break out game, surely it will eventually come to fruition, no? Howard has seen 15 targets in the last two weeks with the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined but he has only turned that into seven catches for under 100 combined yards. The Falcons have been beat by TEs lately, however, allowing 83.5 YPG to the position over their last four games. Maybe, just maybe, Howard can haul in 5+ catches from that wild man Jameis Winston and find his way into the endzone for what would be just his second touchdown of the year.

Mike Gesicki | DK: $4k, FD: $5.9k | @ NE

Most weeks, any fantasy option going against the Patriots defense is just going to be a ‘stay away’ option but that is the mindset for most DFS players. So for a low owned GPP leverage play, you could consider Gesicki this week. The Patriots allow the fewest FPPG to WRs. So we could reasonably see a ton of looks funneled towards Gesicki who had a huge day last week, catching 6-of-12 targets for 82 yards and two touchdowns. I don’t have strong hopes for any Dolphins player but you know that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be slinging it upwards of 40+ times and all those throws have to go somewhere!

Defensive Breakdown

Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $3k, FD: $3.5k | @ BAL

The Steelers DST has scored the second most fantasy points this season (behind only the Patriots) and they’re being priced as if they’re facing Lamar Jackson, which they’re not. For that reason, you almost have to keep them in consideration this week, especially since their playoff hopes aren’t completely dashed. The most likely scenario of them making the postseason is by winning this game and hoping for a Titans loss. They should be looking to play tough for all four quarters against RG3 & Company.

Green Bay Packers | DK: $3k, FD: $4.8k | @ DET

The Packers DST is arguably a top three or four option this week which really makes that $3,000 price tag on DraftKings stand out. Detroit is still going to be led by third string rookie QB David Blough and, unsurprisingly, that will net the Lions just 15.3 implied points this week -- the second lowest implied total of the day. The Packers defense has also stepped up in a big way to close out the season. In their last four games they haven’t allowed more than 15 points and have accounted for 12 sacks and eight turnovers.

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