Top NFL Plays Week #17 | Sunday Solidifies the Playoff Picture

December 28, 2018

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS

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We’ve arrived at the regular season finale in the NFL and what a bitter sweet feeling it is. On one hand, we have some juicy playoff games around the corner to look forward to but on the other hand, plenty of our favorite players and teams will be making their final appearances on our TVs in live action games for many months. When it comes to week 17 in the NFL, for fantasy purposes, it’s important to know which teams have something to gain from winning this week and which teams have nothing to really play for and may opt to limit or rest their normal starters. Targeting players on teams in meaningful games on Sunday should be the primary focus this week. There are also incentives to take into consideration as well that would land some guys nice bonus checks (and players are very aware of their contract incentives) or a spot in the history books. A total of 15 teams are in playoff contention this Sunday and you can find the full breakdown with playoff implications here:

You may notice that the NFL has set up the schedule this week so that just about all of the teams that could affect one another's playoff status are all playing at the same time. There will be a lot of scoreboard watching from players and coaches this Sunday (even if they don't admit it). Now, let’s jump straight to the picks!

Quarterbacks to Target

Patrick Mahomes (DK: $7.1k | FD: $9.5k) vs. OAK

The Chiefs are locked in for the playoffs but can claim a first round bye and home field advantage with a win. A loss would result in them needing losses from the Texans, Patriots and Chargers to remain the No. 1 seed, so they should be looking to be all systems go. Mahomes is also 184 yards away from a 5,000 yard season and two away from 50 passing touchdowns. He’s been a fantasy juggernaut all season and now he’ll get the ever so soft Oakland Raiders defense that allow 8.0 YPA (5th most) and a league worst 34 passing TDs (to just 13 INTs). Kansas City will roll into Sunday as 13.5 point favorites with a massive 33 implied point total. The blowout risk is very slightly concerning but even if Mahomes sits out later in this game, I expect plenty of damage to already have been done. I’m sure if the Chiefs were really determined they could have Mahomes go for seven passing touchdowns to tie Peyton Manning’s all time season record… but maybe that’s getting too bold. Regardless, despite the high salary you’ll need to pay, Mahomes is perhaps the safest option at the position this week.

The results speak for themselves

Jameis Winston (DK: $6.1k | FD: $7.6k) vs. ATL

This is just one of three games this Sunday that doesn’t feature a team with postseason hopes but all indications point towards the normal starters to play their typical snaps. In Winston’s first match-up with Atlanta back in week six, he amassed 35.7 DraftKings points (32.7 FanDuel) and has as much upside as nearly anyone at the position but sports a mid-range price tag. He’s also averaging +7.2 FPPG in home games this season. He may be primed as more of a GPP option but this is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the week (51.5 points) with Tampa Bay sitting at one point underdogs.

Blake Bortles (DK: $4.4k | FD: $6k) @ HOU

Digging into the bottom of the barrel, Bortles is looking to draw the start for Jacksonville’s final game this season. It seems that the Jaguars will be looking to get one more look at Bortles to help them decide if they will be moving on from the 26-year-old quarterback after this season. As such, Bortles should have all the motivation in the world to put on a show -- if anything, to garner the interest from other teams in the off-season in an already thin quarterback market. The Texans secondary has seen it’s fair share of struggles lately and just let Nick Foles throw for a franchise record 471 yards and four scores on them last week. Quarterbacks have scored an average of 26.3 FPPG against them in the last four weeks and though Bortles can be wildly inconsistent, he’s also shown a ton of upside suitable for GPPs.

Houston has struggled to hold down opposing QB numbers lately

Running Backs to Target

Saquon Barkley (DK: $8.2k | FD: $8.5k) vs. DAL

With a lot of the high dollar running backs in iffy situations, whether it be injury or volume concerns, Barkley remains a strong option and will look to close out his rookie campaign with a final push for rookie of the year. The Cowboys are locked into the 4th seed in the NFC playoffs and have nothing to gain from playing their key starters. Despite Jerry Jones saying earlier in the week that they wouldn’t be resting players, the line movement would say otherwise. The Giants opened at 2.5 point favorites and are now as large as 7 point favorites. Barkley with a full workload against back-ups sounds pretty enticing to me. However, keep an eye on this overall situation closer to Sunday. Barkley is 114 yards from a 2,000 all-purpose-yardage season.

Chris Carson (DK: $6.5k | FD: $6.4k) vs. ARI

Volume, volume, volume. Carson has seen plenty of it on the league’s No. 1 rushing offense. In the last three weeks he’s averaged 23.7 rushing attempts per game. The only real question is how much do the Seahawks care about winning this game, as they are playing for seeding purposes only and will enter the postseason as either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. As of now, I’d be surprised if we don’t see the Seattle starters for at least the majority of this game. Arizona allows a league worst 153.1 Ru/YPG and 23 Ru/TDs on the season (also a league worst), so perhaps we won’t need a 20+ touch day from Carson for him to pay off. His price on FanDuel is much more appealing.

Sony Michel (DK: $5.2k | FD: $7.2k) vs. NYJ

The Patriots have locked up the AFC East once again (eye rolls) but can snag a first round bye if Tennessee, Baltimore and Houston all lose. A likely scenario? Not really. But that should still mean that New England should be motivated to win and not look to be resting anyone. Michel should have a positive game script to work with as the Pats are currently 13.5 point home favorites. He is coming in off of an 18 carry, 116 yard (6.4 YPC) performance with a touchdown. He’s also needs 119 yards to notch a 1,000 yard season to cap off his regular season rookie campaign. The Jets run defense has been in the bottom half of the league in both yards per carry (4.6) and rushing yards per game allowed (126.0).

Peyton Barber (DK: $3.6k | FD: $5.5k) vs. ATL

Atlanta has been the friendliest fantasy match-up for RBs this season and have a league high 31.8 FPPG to the position. Barber has 14 or more rushing attempts in six consecutive games. The only player in the NFL with a longer current streak? Ezekiel Elliot. So the volume should be there in a highly plus rated match-up. Playing Peyton Barber isn’t exactly high up on any list of “sexy plays” but he’s cheap enough, especially on DraftKings, to where he can return you some value. His first match-up with Atlanta he produced 82 yards on 13 carries (6.3 YPC) and caught all four of his targets for 24 yards and a touchdown.

Royce Freeman (DK: $3.5k | FD: $4.7k) vs. LAC

Phillip Lindsay suffered a serious wrist injury on Monday Night Football. This leaves Freeman as the primary candidate to see the majority of carries for Denver on Sunday. On limited work this year, Freeman has looked decent (113 carries, 461 yards, 4.1 ypc, 5 TDs) and is a candidate for 15-20 touches against a Chargers defense that has been allowing 31.4 FPPG to opposing running backs in the last four weeks. Devontae Booker will see the majority of passing downs work but Freeman, by all indications, will see the majority of RB touches.

Wide Receivers to Target

Antonio Brown (DK: $8.7k | FD: $8.8k) vs. CIN

Brown is dealing with some knee soreness and has been missing practices but the feeling among the team is that he will be good to go this Sunday. The Steelers’ most likely route to the playoffs would be to win and Baltimore to lose, thus clinching the No. 4 seed and the AFC North. Pittsburgh should be all systems go against arguably the worst defense in the league, as Cincinnati allows 29.3 PPG, most in the NFL. In Brown’s last eleven games he has 100+ yards and a touchdown in five of them.

Davante Adams (DK: $8k | FD: $8.5k) vs. DET

Adams has missed practices this week with a knee issue and it seems his availability for Sunday’s game against Detroit depends on what he can do on Saturday. If it seems like he will be able to suit up, Adams will be chasing some Packers receiving records. He’s two catches and 133 receiving yards short of breaking franchise records in each category. He’s been the most consistent wide receiver that I can recall in recent memory and was able to put up nice fantasy outings in every single game this year. Keep an eye on his status come Sunday but he could very well see the ball force-fed to him to help break those records at home and offer a nice narrative in an otherwise disappointing Packers season.

Absurd consistency

Robert Woods (DK: $6.9k | FD: $7.6k) vs. SF

Speaking of the consistency of Adams, while not quite on the same level, Woods has been a great floor option this season. He has 60+ receiving yards every game since week two and has seven catches or a touchdown in five straight. The Rams offense will be full steam ahead, as a win will secure them a first round bye (or a Bears loss). Jared Goff has had a lot more success at home this season and thus Woods has seen a bit of a trickle down effect by producing +2.7 FPPG at home. The potential for Gurley to sit out this Sunday would add more value to the passing game as well, as I don’t have much confidence in CJ Anderson busting off 150+ yards again in a spot start.

Sterling Shepard (DK: $5.4k | FD: $5.5k) vs. DAL

Odell Beckham Jr. will miss the final game of the season and with the likelihood that Dallas rolls out some back-ups, Shepard could find himself in some favorable match-ups. Shepard didn’t exactly impress when OBJ missed weeks 14 and 15 but he came through with a strong performance going for six catches on seven targets for 113 yards at Indianapolis last week. The opportunity for a great day will be there for him.

Dede Westbrook (DK: $4.7k | FD: $5.5k) @ HOU

Westbrook has been one of the lone bright spots for this Jags offense this season and has turned in a solid sophomore season considering how grim his quarterback situation has been. Since week 12, Westbrook has a 24% target share in this offense. Leonard Fournette is listed as doubtful to play this week and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Bortles throw 40+ times. There’s a good chance Westbrook sees double-digit targets against Houston who ranks 29th, allowing 183.9 Re/YPG to opposing WRs in their last nine games. Bortles and Westbrook would make an interesting cheap GPP stack that can carry a lot of upside.

Isaiah McKenzie (DK: $3.7k | FD: $5.1k) vs. MIA

I prefer McKenzie on DraftKings where I like his PPR upside a bit more. Last week, he and Josh Allen had trouble finding a connection but McKenzie still saw eight targets and had seven targets in each of the two previous games (22% target share in that stretch). It’s clear that Buffalo is trying to get their young players in sync as they look ahead to the future. He caught all four of his targets for 46 yards against Miami in week 13. Look for some high percentage completions to come his way this week.

Tight Ends to Target

Travis Kelce (DK: $7.2k | FD: $7.7k) vs. OAK

Spending up at tight end may be a popular strategy this week. It seems pretty obvious but it's hard to ignore Kelce in this match-up after he hauled in 12 of 13 targets for 168 yards and two (nearly three) touchdowns against Oakland in week 13. With another 54 receiving yards, he will also break the all time receiving record for a tight end (Rob Gronkowski, 1,327 yards in 2011). The Chiefs have a lot to gain by winning this game. Look for Kelce to keep up his historic season.

George Kittle (DK: $6.3k | FD: $6.7k) @ LAR

Normally I don’t recommend two high priced tight ends, but Kittle will be out there chasing that receiving record too. Though he has a bit more work to do than Kelce, as he is 100 yards shy of the record. The Rams have allowed the 10th most receiving yards to TEs this season (920) and when Kittle faced them in week seven he had five catches for 98 yards and a touchdown. Rolling out Kelce and Kittle in the same lineup isn’t a crazy proposition this week.

Chris Herndon (DK: $3.4k | FD: $5.8k) @ NE

The Jets have already ruled out Jermaine Kearse and Quincy Enunwa for this week. Robby Anderson will likely see a ton of coverage from Stephon Gilmore who has been a lock down corner this season. New York is very thin on options to throw the ball to, so consider Herndon a viable option as he enters this week off of his best fantasy performance of the season (six catches for 82 yards and a touchdown).

Defensive Breakdown

Seattle Seahawks (DK: $3.7k | FD: $4.7k) vs. ARI

Despite losing a bit of their defensive dominance, the Seattle DST is almost always in play when they suit up at home. A handful of sacks and a couple turnovers are well within reach against a poor Cardinals offense projected to score 12.5 points.

New York Giants (DK: $2.1k | FD: $3.3k) vs. DAL

At home and likely playing against plenty of the Cowboys' reserves? Definitely worth consideration as a DST to punt.

Weekly NFL Freeroll

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That will wrap us up for the regular season! I've really enjoyed doing these NFL newsletters for LineStar and want to thank them for the opportunity and their amazing product! I wish you guys the best of luck this week and hope everyone enjoyed the holidays and has a happy new year! See you guys for some playoff coverage. As always, please hit me with any thoughts you may have on the newsletters or questions you have for the slate! Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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