Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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Week one is in the books and it’s time to gather what we found out and put it to good use! If you haven’t already, be sure to catch up on the LineStar PreSnap Podcast: Week One Recap show as well as Greg Landry’s (@GP_Landry) NFL Takeaways (see links above). There is plenty of great info provided in those two resources so apply that to your arsenal as you move forward. In essence of the quote, “you don’t know where you are going until you know where you have been,” it’s important to utilize as much existing knowledge as you can towards future approaches! Of course, you can only learn so much from just one week’s worth of games. It will be a little while before we really know what type of trends certain NFL teams are going to carry over from last season and what areas they will improve upon or develop weaknesses in. Eventually, a method to all of the madness will reveal itself!

We’ll now set our sights toward this Sunday’s 13 game main slate.

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Here I will briefly outline a couple match-ups that could be worthy of game stack consideration. Just like in other sports, if you land on several players in a single lineup who get caught up in a high scoring affair, you can quickly launch your way atop the leaderboards. Game stacking is more ideal for, but not limited to, GPP contests as opposed to cash games.

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) | 52.5 O/U

NO: 25 implied points | LAR: 27.5 implied points

As one of the more highly anticipated games of the early season, this is a 2018 NFC Championship rematch. That game, of course, resulted in spectacular controversy after the infamous no-call on what was a very obvious pass interference penalty at a crucial point in the game that should have been called against the Rams (who ultimately went on to win in overtime and earn a trip to the Super Bowl). Prior to that match-up, these two teams also met in week nine where a combined 80 points were scored in shootout fashion, as the Rams handed the then 8-0 Saints their first loss of the season by way of a 45-35 score. Expect more fireworks and an uptempo game as both the Rams and Saints ranked inside the top 10 in pace in week one. We know Drew Brees is more of an appealing option at home so we probably shouldn’t expect him to have one of his bigger games. Still, there are playmakers all over the field on both sides of this game and you’ll definitely want a piece of the action.

Buffalo Bills (-2) @ New York Giants | 43.5 O/U

BUF: 22.8 implied points | NYG: 20.8 implied points

Kansas City (-7.5) at Oakland with a 53 point total would be the other more obvious game stack candidate, but I typically like to include a more contrarian option here as well. This Bills/Giants game doesn’t carry a sexy total but it does feature two teams who were ranked near the top among the fastest paced offenses in week one. The Giants ran the 3rd fastest paced offense while Buffalo ranked 6th. Now, this isn’t very shocking considering both teams were trailing the majority of their respective games. But with just a two point spread, we could expect a little back and forth action for most of this contest. Outside of superstar Saquon Barkley, you’re not going to see any names on either offensive roster worth gushing over. But there is a load of cheap DFS value to be had here (including some guys who will be mentioned below) so don’t let this one fly too far under your radar. I mentioned the Lions at Cardinals game last week as a sneaky shootout candidate. It may have taken a while to culminate, but ultimately there were some high scoring fantasy players to be had there in what ended as a 27-27 tie in overtime. I’m not going to call for another tie game but I could see a similar situation playing out in New York come Sunday.

Quarterbacks to Target

Tom Brady | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.8k | @ MIA

If week one wasn’t enough proof for ya early on, it really is sub-optimal to pay up for quarterbacks most weeks. Brady isn’t priced all the way up but he’s probably the highest salaried QB I’ll personally be looking to roll out this week. We saw Lamar Jackson dismantle this same sorry excuse of a Miami defense en route to scoring a perfect 158.3 passer rating which included five TDs and 324 yards on 17-of-20 passing. You clearly can’t expect The GOAT to have much trouble against Miami either, especially if Antonio Brown does indeed suit up for his Patriots debut. Really, the only concern for Brady here is the potential for poor game script. The Pats are ridiculous 19 point road favorites -- a sort of spread you simply do not see in NFL games -- so we could see a heavy dose of Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead. Still, New England didn’t ride the brakes too hard on the passing game against Pittsburgh on Sunday night even after amassing a huge lead. Anything short of 300 yards and three TDs from Brady would be a surprise, regardless of AB or no AB.

Jared Goff | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.6k | vs. NO

After completing just 59% of his passes on 23-of-39 attempts for 186 yards, one score, and one interception in week one (10.44 FP), Goff has to be one of the top bounce back candidates heading into week two. He’ll step under center at the Rams home opener in LA, where he was much more prolific in 2018. In eight home games last year, Goff had a 22:3 TD:INT ratio (10:9 on the road) and averaged 342.1 yards/game (243.9 on the road). He hung three TDs and nearly 400 yards on the Saints in the Superdome last year, so we’ll see what McVay and Goff can cook up this week in a potential shootout.

Josh Allen | DK: $5.3k, FD: $7.5k | @ NYG

There’s not a ton of savings to be had on Allen on FanDuel but his DraftKings price tag is very appealing. On top of the passing yardage, Allen’s rushing ability is going to help him maintain a strong floor most weeks so long as the match-up is exploitable. The Giants just got torched by Dak Prescott for 405 yards and 4 TDs on a 78.1% completion rate this past Sunday. I’m not going to say Allen is quite on Prescott’s level as a passer, but I’d still look for him to complete about 65% of his passes against New York this week. At $5,300, I love him for cash games over on DK. He has some very affordable receivers to stack alongside him as well.

Running Backs to Target

Alvin Kamara | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.7k | @ LAR

We all saw what Christian McCaffrey did to the Rams last week right? As a reminder: CMC had over 200 all-purpose yards with two scores, ten catches, and averaged 6.7 YPC. Now, obviously McCaffrey doesn’t have a back-up like Latavius Murray on his team to steal touches -- CMC and Le’Veon Bell were the only two RBs who played 100% of their team’s offensive snaps in week one. Kamara still ranked eighth with a 75.8% snap rate and garnered 20 touches, including seven catches on eight targets. Kamara is simply an insane athlete with incredible vision who can produce more fantasy points per touch than virtually anyone else in the league. He doesn’t need 20 carries and 6+ catches to return value, though he may very well get that sort of volume this week. I’m betting Sean Payton and the Saints have a grudge to settle from last season and they’ll gladly feature their best playmaker heavily to seek out some revenge.

Austin Ekeler | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.5k | @ DET

Last week Austin Ekeler out-snapped Justin Jackson 48 to 16 on offense -- that resulted in a direct 75%/25% offensive snap percentage. The three touchdowns were a nice bonus but for as long as Melvin Gordon holds out on his contract dispute, Ekeler absolutely looks like “the guy” for the Chargers. Expect a similar workload for Ekeler this week -- somewhere in the vicinity of 15-20 touches with about a third of those coming through the air. Detroit surrendered 137 total yards and a score to David Johnson last week which included six receptions on seven targets. FanDuel hasn’t wasted much time in getting Ekeler’s price more on par with where it should be, but on DraftKings he’s an easy value to target.

Damien Williams | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.6k | @ OAK

Damien Williams is in danger of losing some work to Shady McCoy as the season wears on, but in week one, Williams out-snapped McCoy 45 to 20. Williams also ranked 10th among all NFL running backs last week with a 31.7% market share (touches divided by team plays) as he received 19 touches on 60 total plays run by Kansas City. Against Denver, Oakland’s defense looked improved from the shell that they were in 2018 but the Chiefs are an entirely different animal to take on. At these salaries, you can’t discount the lead running back playing for the best offense in the NFL. Multiple touchdown opportunities should present themselves for Williams against Oakland.

Chris Thompson | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.3k | vs. DAL

Derrius Guice hasn’t yet officially been ruled out for this week but he currently carries the foreboding “doubtful” injury tag after sustaining a meniscus injury to his right knee. As a result, Thompson ended up playing on 43 offensive snaps last week (64.2% snap rate) versus Guice’s 24 (35.8% snap rate). Adrian Peterson was inactive last week but all indications point towards him starting and seeing the majority of early down work. There’s nothing wrong with that considering Thompson excels more as a passing downs/change-of-pace back anyway. The Redskins are four point underdogs to the Cowboys so we can predict the game script working out in Thompson’s favor later into the game when passing may be the primary option. For a Redskins team desperate for receiving threats, Thompson is a candidate to grab plenty of looks through the air after seeing ten targets in week one.

Devin Singletary | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.7k | @ NYG

Singletary received a 70% snap rate against the Jets on Sunday (to Frank Gore’s 27.5%) and, despite only receiving nine touches (four rushes, five receptions) he looked like the best player on the field and was extremely explosive and efficient with those limited opportunities (98 all-purpose yards). Expect his role to grow even more week to week and a match-up with the Giants could easily be his breakout game. Grab him while he’s cheap!

Wide Receivers to Target

JuJu Smith-Schuster | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.1k | vs. SEA

After getting rolled up on late in Sunday’s embarrassing outing versus New England, be sure to keep an eye on JuJu’s injury status and see whether or not he practices Thursday and/or Friday. Bill Belichick and New England specialize in minimizing the opposing team’s star players -- that’s just a well known fact at this point. JuJu got that lock down treatment in week one and saw plenty of coverage from arguably the league’s best cornerback in Stephon Gilmore. Still, he salvaged a respectable fantasy day, catching six of eight targets for 78 yards. Seattle also just let Andy Dalton pass on them for 418 yards. If the Steelers get shut down again then maybe they’re in trouble, but I just don’t see that happening. If Smith-Schuster is healthy by Sunday, I think he eats up this Seahawks secondary.

Sammy Watkins | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.4k | @ OAK

This is a helluva price bump but you cannot dispute that it’s warranted. Watkins is the Chiefs’ lead wide receiver for the foreseeable future with Tyreek Hill sidelined. Mahomes and Watkins just dismantled a supposedly strong Jacksonville defense for nearly 200 yards and three scores. Watkins’ 11 targets represented a 32.4% target share which ranked 7th in the league for week one. If you watched Oakland’s MNF game, you noticed that they gave up some chunk yardage at times to Courtland Sutton and, later in the game, to Emmanuel Sanders. Their outside corners are beatable and Watkins can definitely thrive against them now that he’s fully healthy and taking on a No. 1 receiving role alongside Travis Kelce.

Tyrell Williams | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.9k | vs. KC

There’s so much value to be had at the receiver position and Tyrell “The Gazelle” Williams easily stands out among the pack. DFS salaries get released later in the day on Sundays so the sites aren’t able to account for things that occur on Monday Night Football. As a result, Williams is probably about $1,000 underpriced on both sites after hauling in six of seven targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. In a game where playing “keep up” will likely be necessary, Tyrell feels like an easy plug and play. Chalky? Sure. If you’re concerned about that, differentiate elsewhere man!

Danny Amendola | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.4k | vs. LAC

Amendola’s 13 targets from last week represented a 28.9% target share -- ranking 19th among all players for the week. Kenny Golladay is going to be Stafford’s main down field threat and overall primary receiver most weeks. But for some cheap production, the Stafford to Amendola safety valve connection looked strong. A couple things to point out, however: the Lions/Cardinals game went to overtime so yes, the box scores got a bit of a boost. The Lions are also going from playing an extremely uptempo Cardinals team to the Chargers, who are one of the slowest paced teams in the league. This will ultimately take some plays away from the Lions offense but, for the prices, I’m still keen to the value to be had from Amendola at the moment.

Cole Beasley | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5k | @ NYG

Essentially the same thought process with Amendola comes into play here with Beasley, who saw nine targets from Josh Allen in week one (24.3% target share). Rostering slot receivers is never the sexiest approach, but if the volume is there and the price is fair then, hey, points are points! The Josh Allen + Cole Beasley combo is a pretty interesting value stack for cash games on DraftKings with their full PPR scoring.

Tight Ends to Target

George Kittle | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.1k | @ CIN

If you’re targeting one of the premium tight ends, then Kittle needs to be neck-and-neck with Travis Kelce when deciding who to spend up on. For those who didn’t catch the game, Kittle had two touchdowns called back due to penalties, otherwise he’d probably be just as expensive as Kelce this week. The 49ers only threw the ball 27 times but Kittle’s 10 targets represented the third highest target share of the week at 37%. They’re clearly going to feature him each and every game no matter what. The Bengals were torn up by tight ends in 2018, allowing the most fantasy points to the position (30.5 FPPG, half-PPR scoring). People will certainly gravitate toward the cheaper tight end options, so Kittle makes for a great GPP target.

Darren Waller | DK: $3.3k, FD: $5.4k | vs KC

As I mentioned with Tyrell Williams, take advantage of the fact that the Raiders prices aren’t properly adjusted after playing MNF. If Williams is “1A” among Oakland receivers then Waller has to qualify as “1B.” Derek Carr was looking for him all over the field and his seven catches on eight targets resulted in a 30.8% target share (ranked 9th overall in week one). Not much to think about here, especially on DraftKings. He’s an excellent cash play.

TJ Hockenson | DK: $3k, FD: $6k | vs. LAC

I don’t like to get too ‘cute’ with my tight end plays so the Waller and Hockenson mentions probably don’t surprise you. The position is so fickle and unpredictable outside of the Kelce/Kittle/Ertz/Engram tier that chasing targets is simply the easiest route to take. Again, this game did go to overtime and played through the entirety of the additional 15 minutes, but Stafford very clearly has an early connection established with his rookie tight end after looking his way nine times and connecting for six catches, 131 yards, and a touchdown. What’s more interesting is the fact that Hockenson was 11th in the NFL with 142 air yards last week -- the same number that DeSean Jackson had. We’ll see whether or not that game was simply a fluke or if there is actually some weight to this QB+TE connection.

Defensive Breakdown

New England Patriots | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.9k | @ MIA

If you have the cash left over, the Pats feel like one of the safest DSTs to invest in, as they take on the trash that is the Miami Dolphins who currently have just a 14.5 implied team total. The Dolphins should be playing from behind here wire-to-wire so there will be plenty of opportunities to record some sacks and grab some Fitzmagic picks throughout this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.8k | @ HOU

If you need a cheaper (but riskier) defense, why not consider the Jags? They have to go from playing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to Deshaun Watson and the Texans, which is a bad draw to open up the season, but there’s some decent upside here. Watson was the most sacked QB in the league last year when he was taken down 65 times. He’s already looking to retain that title after the Saints got to him six times behind the line of scrimmage on Monday night. Watson also threw an interception as well as one or two other passes that could have easily been picked off (one INT was nullified due to a penalty). Overall, the Texans likely put up some points but there’s plenty of room for the Jaguars defense to make up for that elsewhere in the fantasy scoring.

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Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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