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- Top NFL Plays Week #2 | The Show Goes On
Top NFL Plays Week #2 | The Show Goes On
Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS
And be sure to check out the new weekly LineStar PreSnap Podcast
Hello again football fans and welcome back to the second issue of LineStar’s Weekly Pylon! We had quite the week one with plenty of story lines to follow. We saw a bit of Fitzmagic, young QB's make some statements, Aaron Rodgers in a gutsy comeback performance, and plenty more. As far as DFS is concerned, there were some very high cash lines as “chalky” week one options like James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Drew Brees, Rob Gronkowski and a few others had excellent weeks. But poor production from guys like Chris Hogan, Kareem Hunt, Alex Collins, and Deshaun Watson reminded us that daily fantasy can also be a cruel mistress.
Don’t be discouraged if you had a rough opening week. Just buckle down, stay vigilant with your research, get involved in the LineStar chat, maintain smart bankroll management and you’ll find success along the way! Also, one bit of terrible advice that I discourage folks to listen to is people telling you to “fade the chalk." For those unfamiliar with those terms, it basically translates to “don’t play the most popular options because a lot of people will have them in their lineups.” It’s a terrible approach to essentially every daily fantasy sport. As a very recent example, the DFS player who won the DraftKings Millionaire Maker (appropriately named “chalk”) last week had five out of nine players with ownership percentages between 18.2% and 33.5%. Pick and choose where you want to differentiate yourself in GPPs but never feel like you should not play someone just because they will be highly owned. Now, with that brief rant out of the way, let’s hop into some games and players to target for week two!
Games to Target
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh | 52.5 O/U
KC: 24 implied points | PIT: 28.5 implied points
This match-up should feature a lot of players who will be popular DFS targets, as it has the highest total of any game this week. I will talk more in depth on several players in this game further down, but on the Steelers side, it is no secret that Ben Roethlisberger tends to have his bigger games at home. He’s dealing with a minor elbow injury and may be limited in practice throughout this week but I’d expect him to be a full go with plenty of upside against this Kansas City defense that is vulnerable at every level of its defense. Antonio Brown clearly makes for a great all around play if you can afford to pay up for him and JuJu Smith-Schuster is a viable GPP play in a full Steelers passing attack stack. In a game that extended through the entirety of overtime in sloppy weather at Cleveland last week, they didn’t shy away from featuring James Conner, giving him 31 carries and 6 targets, which he turned into 135 yards (4.4 ypc), two TD's, and 5 catches for 57 yards. Don’t expect to see 35+ touches again, but the Mike Tomlin coached Steelers have shown that they will almost always feature one RB even if Lev Bell is out of the picture.
For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes had a stellar opening season game largely aided by electric wide out Tyreek Hill. Mahomes looked very solid and has the ability to pad his fantasy stats with his rushing ability and huge arm. I’d expect big time Chiefs playmakers Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce, who were largely invisible in the box score last week, to make their presence felt much more versus the Steelers.
Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay | 44 O/U
PHI: 23.5 implied points | TB: 20.5 implied total
Here is a game that doesn’t necessarily have a high total but should fly under the radar and feature some intriguing GPP options. The Buccaneers secondary is hurting badly after losing Vernon Hargreaves for the season and Brent Grimes is still banged up. Forced to work with a lot of young guys, they surrendered 439 yards to Drew Brees in their week one shootout. Now I’m not comparing him to Brees, but this makes Nick Foles a very interesting QB to roll out with sub 5% ownership. Agholor sets up to have a solid PPR floor after seeing 10 targets from Foles last week while Ertz and Mike Wallace act as contrarian stack pieces. I’m not confident how they will distribute touches between Ajayi, Sproles and Clement but Ajayi was clearly the most effective back against the Falcons last week, but approach this backfield with caution.
Meanwhile, there are some DFS players out there that owe a gigantic “thank you” to Ryan Fitzpatrick and company for earning them quite a lot of winnings last week. Against the Saints, Fitzmagic (at around 1-2% ownership) completed 75% of his passes for 417 yards and 4 TD's while adding a rushing score to his stat line as well. He should face a tougher test against this aggressive Philly defense but could be worth another flyer this week as he is looking to earn himself a starting job. Chris Godwin could step up this week as well if Desean Jackson is unable to play. A Bucs stack isn’t a safe play by any means but the upside was clearly shown last week.
Quarterbacks to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Drew Brees ($7.2k DK, $8.8k FD) vs. CLE
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
I usually don’t opt to go for the high salary QB's, but if I am paying up at the position this week, it comes down to Brees and Roethlisberger. Ultimately, Brees will get the slight nod from me. You always feel better about playing him at home and he has a very talented arsenal of pass catching weapons. While I don’t expect a shootout like last week where Brees aired it out 45 times for 439 yards, I do expect him to throw upwards of 35 pass attempts. New Orleans defense looked very suspect in the opener, so even though the Saints are 8.5 point favorites over the Browns, it’s very possible that they may not comfortably pull away, leaving Sean Payton and Drew Brees to stay in aggressive “pass first” mode for the majority of this game.
Stack Options: Michael Thomas (Cash), Ted Ginn Jr. (GPP)
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Patrick Mahomes ($6.1k DK, $7.5k FD) @ PIT
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Mahomes had one of the more impressive performances of the opening week accounting for four touchdowns on just 15 pass completions. Many believe this game will be a shootout and I’m inclined to believe it. Not only does Mahomes have a cannon of an arm, he can create plays with his legs as well, and the Chiefs run designed plays for him to do just that. The Steelers let Tyrod Taylor gain 77 yards on 8 rushing attempts last week, so we’ll see if Mahomes can see some comparable success. It’s hard to imagine him not returning solid value with his trio of weapons around him. Tyreek Hill obviously stole the show last week but look for Kelce and Hunt to be a bit more involved and give Mahomes a solid floor in this matchup.
Stack Options: Tyreek Hill (Cash), Travis Kelce (GPP)
💲 Low Salary 💲
Sam Darnold ($5.1k DK, $6.6k FD) vs. MIA
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
If you really want to punt at the position, why not give Darnold a look in tournaments? He’ll be making his rookie debut at home, and after throwing a pick six on his first NFL pass attempt last week, he showed some great composure and managed his team to a bit of a surprising win on the road. He only had to pass it 21 times last week and I’d expect that number to spike a bit against Miami. The Jets team total isn’t indicative of a massive offensive onslaught but currently sitting at 23.5 implied points is certainly solid for his current price point. Sprinkle him in some GPP builds and you’ll have extra salary for some of the big boys.
Stack Options: Quincy Enunwa (Cash), Robby Anderson (GPP)
Wide Receivers to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Antonio Brown ($8.8k DK, $8.9k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
I know this is perhaps the most obvious elite play of the week but I just want to hit on how much I like AB for this week. In the last 14 games without Le’Veon Bell, Brown has averaged a 9 reception, 132 yard, and 1 touchdown stat line. Last week, with awful weather in Cleveland, he got peppered with 16 targets and turned in a very solid 9/93/1 line for 24.3 fantasy points (DK scoring). I know that game lasted the entirety of overtime, but considering the conditions, I believe that sort of production is essentially his floor with Bell not a part of this offense. This week at home, he will see a KC secondary that just gave up 424 yards through the air to Philip Rivers. He is the first guy I lock into cash lineups this week.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8k DK, $8.4k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Hopkins disappointed a bit last week as Deshaun Watson showed some struggles in his first game back since going down with an ACL tear in week 8 last season. But being faced with New England and Bill Belichick is probably not the ideal opening game. Last week, Hopkins still saw the 7th highest target share percentage among all WR's at 35% and the 4th most air yards at 174 while playing 99% of snaps. He turned 13 targets into 9 receptions and 95 yards. I would bank on Watson to improve on his 50% pass completion rate that he had versus the Patriots, considering the Titans allowed Ryan Tannehill to complete 71.4% of his passes in week one. Hopkins makes for a pretty safe bet to see another 10-15 targets, and considering his play making ability and presence in the redzone, he’s a prime GPP pivot candidate off of some of the other high salary WR's that will likely garner more ownership.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Emmanuel Sanders ($6.2k DK, $6.8k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
In week one, Sanders showed what many people had suspected -- he appears to be Case Keenum’s go-to target and has taken over as the WR1 in Denver. Versus Seattle, Sanders played on 64/74 offensive snaps (86%) compared to Demaryius Thomas who was in on 53/74 offensive snaps (72%) so it’s a fair assumption moving forward that he’s “the” guy. He can work all over the field, whether it be from the slot or out wide, and last week he converted his 11 targets into 10 receptions for a 135 yards and a score. It is just a one game sample size but his 9.5 yard aDOT (average depth of target) in that game isn’t high by any means. However, when you compare Case Keenum’s most targeted WR from last year in Minnesota, Adam Thielen, you’ll see that he had a 10.5 yard aDOT on 144 total targets that he translated to 91/1277/4 on the year. Keenum isn’t a QB who is going to take a ton of deep shots but his short passing approach should result in Sanders seeing high volume and being a reliable cash option many weeks.
Jarvis Landry ($6.3k DK, $6.7k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Based off of the first week, it appears that Landry may not suffer much of a drop off in Cleveland from the volume he saw while in Miami. He saw a whopping 15 targets and hauled in 7 of them for 106 yards. Again, it’s just a one game sample size, but one interesting thing about Landry’s targets against the Steelers last week was that he saw an aDOT of 13.9 yards. More than double that of his 2017 aDOT in Miami at 6.4 yards. This indicates that the Browns are looking for Landry further down the field and not just looking to use him as an extension of the run game. It’ll be interesting to see what sort of numbers he’ll put up this year, especially with the ever talented Josh Gordon looking to reemerge as a lethal receiving threat. Landry played on 91% of snaps last week and Gordon saw 78% of snaps, so they were on the field together quite a bit. Though, Gordon will surely start seeing more than the 3 targets he saw against the Steelers, I still believe Landry can be a reliable volume receiver and regularly have Tyrod (or eventually Baker?) look his way 10+ times a game. Against New Orleans this week, whose defense just got shredded for 417 yards by Ryan Fitzpatrick, Landry should be expected to find plenty of success.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Quincy Enunwa ($4.7k DK, $5k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Enunwa had Sam Darnold look his way on 10 of his 21 pass attempts and connection for 6 receptions, 63 yards and a score versus the Lions. His massive 48% target share of his teams passes lead every NFL player in week one. Now obviously that target share percentage will not be sustainable, but it doesn’t mean he won’t get plenty of looks as Darnold’s early favorite as his go-to guy. Because the Jets played on Monday Night Football, Enunwa’s DFS salaries weren’t adjusted to his success and he pops off as one of the safer cheap WR's to roll out in cash this week.
Chris Godwin ($4.6k DK, $6.1k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
This play is dependent on whether or not Desean Jackson suits up this week which, as of now, seems unlikely. If he’s out, Godwin should be in line for the start alongside Mike Evans and Adam Humphries. With Godwin likely to see 70+% of his teams snaps, he makes for a intriguing flyer. I don’t expect the Bucs to produce anything close to the offensive numbers they had last week versus the Eagles but Godwin is a great young talent, and if he sees about 5 to 8 targets from Fitzpatrick, he could very easily return great value. Mike Evans will be the Eagles primary receiving threat they will focus on, so let’s see what kind of week the young guy can make of the opportunity.
#Bucs WR Chris Godwin has played 40+ snaps in 4 career games.
His production in them:5/68/0
3/98/0
7/111/1
3/41/1* DeSean Jackson appears unlikely to play this week.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva)
3:46 PM • Sep 11, 2018
Kelvin Benjamin ($4.6k DK, $5.4k FD)
Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
First off, if you don’t pay attention to my cash & GPP ratings for each player, notice that Benjamin is definitely a tournament play only. Rostering anyone on the Bills anemic offense is a pretty unexciting move. But even though Benjamin only caught one of his seven targets for 10 yards, he had an aDOT of 24.4 yards -- highest among all week one receivers who saw at least seven targets. The Bills trailed badly all game versus the Ravens and could very likely be in a similar position as 7 point underdogs to the Chargers this week. They seem like they want to get Kelvin some deep balls, and a full game with Josh Allen starting can’t be any worse than Nathan Peterman throwing aimlessly for half of the game. I wouldn’t go very heavy exposure at all but if you’re looking for high-risk-high-reward in this range, Kelvin might be your guy.
Running Backs to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Alvin Kamara ($9.5k DK, $9k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
If you played week one, you already know how important it was to have Kamara rostered, as he went off for 46.1 and 38.6 fantasy points on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. Assuming the Saints defense shows up a bit stronger this week, I don’t think Kamara will be relied upon as much but he is still ultra efficient in the touches he receives and he’s fully capable of gaining 100+ yards on the ground or through the air. He appeared on 81% of snaps last week and, assuming he sees another week of 75+% of snaps, he’ll be a dominant feature of this offense which will be up against a Browns defense that gave up nearly 200 all purpose yards to James Conner a few days ago. I wouldn’t say he is a “must play,” especially since he is now the most expensive option on both sites, but few others possess his upside.
Melvin Gordon ($7.4k DK, $8.2k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Gordon has a chance to be the highest owned RB as he looked dominant on the field last week. He is virtually a lock for 20+ touches and I would imagine if the Chargers get up big on the Bills and pull Gordon later in the game, he likely would have already done his damage. He was a major factor receiving the ball against Kansas City, seeing 13 targets for 9 catches and 102 yards. I doubt he’ll be needed to that extent with the Chargers not likely to be playing from behind but it’s nice to attach a bit of pass catching safety to his floor. With a team total of 25.25 points, don’t be surprised by what could be a multi-TD day for the big back.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Christian McCaffrey ($7k DK, $7.4k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
The Panthers just lost Greg Olsen for a minimum several weeks, which should make CMC even more of a candidate to be the most targeted RB in the league for a second consecutive year. Atlanta was a team that struggled against pass catching backs last season and they just lost two defensive starters in DB Keanu Neal and LB Deion Jones -- the latter being a major loss when it comes to stopping guys like McCaffrey. Since he doesn’t have the highest TD upside as some other guys in this range, he may not be as appealing on FanDuel but I really like this play for DraftKings and their full PPR scoring system.
Jordan Howard ($5.9k DK, $7.4k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
If you’re playing a slate that includes the MNF game, I doubt many will be looking towards Howard in tournaments. The Seattle defense isn’t shaping up to be the beast that it has been in the past. The Denver running back committee of Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker found success on the ground last week against the Seahawks to the tune of 146 total yards with a 4.6 ypc average. Howard, in my opinion, is a better back than all of those guys and has a fairly secure workload that should hit around 20 touches, some coming through the air (5 receptions on 5 targets last week). The Bears are actually a 3 point favorite in this game, so if Chicago stays ahead, Howard should be a big reason why.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Jalen Richard ($3.4k DK, $4.6k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
We aren't quite as spoiled as we were last week with RB's in this range but Richard was one of the only effective players in the Raiders offensive attack on Monday night, as he rushed 5 times for 24 yards (4.8 ypc) and caught 9 of 11 targets for 55 yards and wound up playing on 50% of their offensive snaps -- outsnapping both Lynch (36%) and Martin (14%). Most of his targets came late when the game was essentially already in hand for the Rams, but with Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin unlikely to be as effective catching out of the backfield as Richard, he could see an expanded role moving forward -- at least in games that the Raiders are trailing. This week, they are 5.5 point road underdogs against Denver. Richard also got the “Monday Night Football benefit” of having a nice game while avoiding a DFS salary increase and he is nearly the stone cold minimum on both sites. I’d probably reserve him as a cheap GPP dart throw but if we hear from Gruden & Co. that Richard may have larger role, he could turn into a sneaky dirt cheap cash piece.
Phillip Lindsay ($4.4k DK, $4.9k FD)
Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Linsday was almost certainly a hot waiver wire add in your redraft leagues this week. I had never heard of this guy prior to their game on Sunday. But after drawing 17 offensive touches (15 rushing, 2 receiving) it appears he may have usurped Devontae Booker as the second piece of a committee back field alongside rookie Royce Freeman. I’ll hold onto some reservations though because the snap count broke down more evenly than the usage stats would indicate: Freeman (39% of snaps), Lindsay (35%), Booker (26%). We’ll see this week for sure if Lindsay will be the preferred receiving back and have a more permanent and secured role carved out in this sneaky good offense.
Tight Ends to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Travis Kelce ($5.9k DK, $6.8k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
With Gronk facing a tough test with the Jags defense, it seems like a week to pay down for tight ends in cash. But Kelce will enter this week coming off a dud versus the Chargers where he caught just one of six targets. However, I noted last week that Kelce has never really had success against the Chargers, now averaging only about 4 catches for 34 yards and no TD's in 9 career games against them. The good news is that Kelce’s 6 targets represented 22% of the Chiefs target share, not far off from his 24% target share in 2017. So it isn’t like Reid or Mahomes are trying to avoid him. This week, I don’t love the matchup with Pittsburgh, but with the highest projected game total, there could be some upside to be had with Kelce, and I’d be surprised if many were on him in tournaments.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
George Kittle ($3.8k DK, $5.6k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Kittle has a decent shot at being the most popular TE play this week. Garoppolo sent 9 targets his way (26% target share) which he turned into 5 catches for 90 yards. He was really the lone consistent receiver against a stout Vikings defense on the road. I’d expect the 49ers offense to have an easier time moving the ball this week as 5.5 point home favorites (26.5 implied points) versus a very unimpressive looking Lions defense who will be on a short week after getting beat by the rookie-led Jets.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Ricky Seals-Jones ($2.9k DK, $5.2k FD)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
RSJ might be my preferred cash TE on DK, in particular due to how cheap he is and my desire to sort of “punt” the position this week. Enter RSJ -- Seals-Jones saw 6 targets and caught 3 for 19 yards. On the surface, that stat line doesn’t scream “I’m a viable DFS option,” but the Arizona Cardinals got absolutely demolished in time of possession against the Redskins. The Redskins held the ball for 38 minutes in this game, the Cardinals 22 minutes. So those 6 targets that RSJ got represents an 18% target share. He also dropped a touchdown. He played 92% of offensive snaps, and with Jermained Gresham still sidelined, that number should stay about the same this week. In an offense that should be playing from behind a lot without many reliable guys outside of David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, RSJ should be a viable play assuming the Cardinals can possess the ball more than 1/3rd of the game.
Defensive Breakdown
Los Angeles Chargers ($3.6k DK, $4.4k FD)
Targeting the Bills with D/STs will be my strategy for cash games and plenty of GPPs until the Bills prove they can do anything well on offense. Not exactly a revolutionary thought process here!
Houston Texans ($2.6k DK, $4.5k FD)
On FanDuel, I’d probably just roll with the Chargers D/ST for $100 cheaper but the Texans come in $1200 cheaper than them on DK. This largely depends on if Mariota plays or not. If he is out, the Texans face off against a Titans led Blaine Gabbert squad who just lost their most reliable receiver in Delanie Walker. Pretty enticing if you ask me.
Weekly NFL Freeroll
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