Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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Two weeks down, plenty to go! We still need a couple more weeks, at least, to really get a feel for how some of these teams will operate in the 2019 season. For now, two weeks gives us somewhat of an expanded sample size and there are certain player performances or offensive/defensive approaches that we can likely rule out as being one week flukes. If you haven’t been doing so already, make sure you’re checking out Greg Landry’s (@GP_Landry) “NFL Takeaways” article each week as well as the PreSnap Podcast shows. Both can be found linked above!

Looking towards this week’s 13 game main slate, can someone tell me when was the last time there were two 20+ point NFL spreads in the same week? Per Yahoo Sports, there have been only seven NFL games since 1993 which featured a team who was a 20-point favorite or higher. Now we have two… on the same day. Sorry to any Dolphins or Jets fans out there -- it’s gotta be rough. Elsewhere, in what is sure to be one of the games of the week, we’ll get to see two of the young, dynamic stars go head-to-head when Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. How will Mahomes fare against a vaunted defense? Can Jackson keep pace with Andy Reid and the most potent offense in the league? Should be a great one to watch!

Match-ups for the 13 game main slate with implied totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Here I will briefly outline a couple match-ups that could be worthy of game stack consideration. Just like in other sports, if you land on several players in a single lineup who get caught up in a high scoring affair, you can quickly launch your way atop the leaderboards. Game stacking is more ideal for, but not limited to, GPP contests as opposed to cash games.

Baltimore @ Kansas City (-6.5) | 54.5 O/U

BAL: 24 implied points | KC: 30.5 implied points

I’m sure no one is shocked by this one. Considering no other game on this slate has a total above 47.5, of course I have to lead with the lone game projected to score 7+ points more than any other match-up. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of pace of play through two games this year but you don’t exactly have to hurry it up when you’re: A) winning the game, and B) rank 2nd/3rd in the NFL in yards per play. The predictive game script here is pretty obvious: the Chiefs offense *shouldn’t* get yardage and points at will against a strong Baltimore defense or pull too far away from the Ravens on the scoreboard, so they’ll have to keep their foot on the gas the entire game. The Baltimore offense will simply be looking to play ‘keep up’ in a hostile environment, but with a dynamic weapon like Lamar Jackson, they’re fully capable of hanging around for four quarters. Of course, NFL games don’t always play out how they should so this is just what these Vegas numbers are telling us. Every key player from this game should be on your radar in DFS this week. But maybe leave those DSTs off the list.

Carolina (-2.5) @ Arizona | 46.5 O/U

CAR: 24.5 implied points | ARI: 22 implied points

You’re likely going to see games featuring the “Cardinals vs. Team XYZ” pop up a lot in this section throughout the season. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is designed to push the ball down field, ‘air raid’ style, and do so at a rapid pace. So far, he’s accomplished the “rapid pace” part and, if last week is any indication, this offense is starting to get the “air raid” going as well. You may be surprised to find out that the Panthers have been one of the fastest paced teams as well (mostly due to trailing much of their first two games). Overall, this game features not just the two most uptempo offenses in the NFL on average, but the two most uptempo teams when the score is +/- 6 points. Considering this match-up will carry just a 2.5 point spread, we could predict a close back and forth battle here. Keep an eye on whether or not Cam Newton intends to suit up, as he is currently questionable for the week. Though, as poorly as he’s playing, I’m sure rolling out third round rookie QB Will Grier may not be the worst option… we shall see. This game should have a couple guys who are viable for all formats but, for the most part, you’ll find more upside GPP plays.

Quarterbacks to Target

Dak Prescott | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.4k | vs. MIA

Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are clearly capable of paying off their salaries but you have to assume Dak Prescott has as much upside as either guy when the Cowboys take on the Miami Dolphins aka “The Coors Field of the NFL.” Dallas carries the highest implied team total of the week (34.3 points) and really the only concern here is whether or not Dak will play all four quarters. Prescott’s insane 82.3% completion rate will surely come back down to earth soon, but hell, it might go up a couple more ticks against Miami who has allowed a league-worst 79.63% completion rate and just traded away Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Regardless of how much of a blowout this turns into, Prescott’s floor is incredibly high this week and the ceiling is obviously up in the clouds as well.

Jimmy Garoppolo | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.2k | vs. PIT

Garoppolo is an interesting GPP pivot at QB as the 49ers kick off their 2019 home opener against Pittsburgh. Via NextGen Stats, Garoppolo’s 70.7% expected completion percentage is the third highest in football and through two weeks the Steelers have allowed a 75% completion rate (fourth highest). San Francisco trails only the Ravens and Patriots in total points and it certainly seemed like things were starting to click for them last week (given, that was against a poor Cincy D). With much ‘sexier’ options on the board across this slate, expect single digit ownership on Jimmy G.

Jameis Winston | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.3k | vs. NYG

I’m more keen to the potential value here for Winston on DraftKings where QB pricing crosses a wider spectrum. After completing just 59% of his passes through two games with only two TDs, Winston has done nothing to really inspire much confidence. At some point he’ll either get on the same page with Bruce Arians, aka “The Quarterback Whisperer,” or Tampa Bay is going to simply move on. I suppose we can forgive him for a poor performance in week one, when he faced an improved 49ers defense. And in week two, the Bucs and Panthers played on Thursday Night Football (short week) that had a lengthy in-game weather delay resulting in really sloppy conditions. No excuses should be made if he struggles at home as a 6.5 point favorite against the New York Giants who have allowed a 71% completion rate and are just terrible in general. With a very healthy 27 implied point total, this Bucs' offense has to be held to pretty lofty expectations this Sunday.

Running Backs to Target

Ezekiel Elliot | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.8k | vs. MIA

After holding out for most of the preseason and seeing limited touches in week one, Zeke racked up his typical workhorse load in week two (23 carries, two catches). His 25 touches on 65 offensive plays for Dallas represented a 38.46% market share -- the fourth highest among all players in week two. If he gets 25 touches against this Miami defense, good lord, look out. The Dolphins are already giving up 195.5 rushing yards per game and facing Zeke Elliot with this offensive line will be a completely different challenge to contend with. He’s likely going to be the highest owned running back of the week, for good reason. You might just have to eat this chalk and then come back for seconds.

Dalvin Cook | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.3k | vs. OAK

All questions on whether or not Dalvin Cook is healthy have been silenced. He received 23 touches in each of the first two weeks and has ranked 1st (46.94% week one) and 5th(38.33% week two) in market share. If Kirk Cousins continues to struggle as much as he has, then Cook is sure to see plenty of stacked boxes. However, that is not necessarily a terrible thing. Stacked boxes just allows long touchdown runs to be more attainable. Once a running back breaks through the second level of an eight man box, there are not many defenders who are going to be close enough to catch them. In Cook’s case, he’s already shown to be one of the most elusive backs in the league and broke off a 75 yard TD last week in Green Bay. Oakland has held opposing runners to 2.8 YPC but this is against the likes of Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, LeSean McCoy, and Damien Williams. Some good backs for sure, but none quite on Dalvin Cook’s current level. Cook is the focus of this offense and will continue to get fed at home on Sunday.

Aaron Jones | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.9k | vs. DEN

Aaron Jones truthers have to be ecstatic about that week two workload where he saw 23 carries and four catches on six targets (39.13% market share, ranked 3rd). If he continues to be the workhorse of this Green Bay backfield, we know how often Aaron Rodgers gets a lead going at Lambeau Field. Grabbing early leads typically ensures a healthy dose of the run game… for most NFL offenses anyway. That just might be the case this week as Green Bay is a 7.5 home favorite against the Broncos who rank in the middle of the pack allowing 4.4 YPC.

Raheem Mostert | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6k | vs. PIT

Mostert has received double digit touches in each of the first two games and snagged a 23.53% market share last week -- ranking 22nd among all players. Some of that was in garbage time but the 49ers are pretty committed to a running back by committee approach regardless. For as long as Tevin Coleman is out (which may not be much longer, we shall see) Mostert is an intriguing low-salary GPP candidate.

Ito Smith | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.3k | @ IND

Devonta Freeman just doesn’t look very explosive or elusive anymore and you know the Falcons coaches are noticing as well. Ito Smith has pretty easily passed the eye test as the better looking back but has yet to really garner the opportunities. Don’t be surprised if the tides start to shift ever so slightly in Ito’s favor. The Colts and their leaky run defense (5.5 YPC) would be a perfect breakout week.

Wide Receivers to Target

Julio Jones | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.3k | @ IND

Through two weeks, Julio has *just* a 24% target share but we should expect that to rise as the season progresses. The emergence of Calvin Ridley certainly has an impact on some of his targets, but if you watched Sunday Night Football this past week, you know that Julio is still Julio and doesn’t necessarily need 12 to 15+ targets to break open a slate. Ridley proving to be a more dangerous weapon should only open up the field further for Jones as defenses can’t solely key in on him now. Top Colts cornerback Pierre Desir could likely miss week 3 and would leave rookie CB Rock Ya-Sin the responsibility of covering Julio Jones for much of this game. Bad news if you’re a Colts fan.

Keenan Allen | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. HOU

Allen is pretty much locked into 10+ targets every week and his 15 targets on Philip Rivers’ 36 attempts in week two represented a league-leading 41.67% target share. At this point in the early season, Allen’s 36% target share and 329 targeted air yards leads all NFL WRs. Allen is borderline match-up proof, given his volume and involvement all over the field, but he’ll get a positive match-up with Houston’s Bradley Roby who is currently the 84th ranked CB in the NFL.

Kenny Golladay | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7k | @ PHI

Philadelphia has allowed a slate-high 58.1 FPPG to WRs and Kenny Golladay currently commands a strong 25% target share through two weeks. If you haven’t notice yet, the Lions’ new offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell, is committed to opening up the down field passing attack with Matthew Stafford, something that has been sorely missed in this offense over the recent Jim Bob Cooter years. You might have seen what Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley did to this Philly secondary on Sunday night. Golladay is poised for not only a huge week, but a monstrous year.

Larry Fitzgerald | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.9k | vs. CAR

The 36-year-old ageless wonder currently ranks 6th among NFL WRs in targeted air yards and owns a 26% target share in one of the most pass-happy offenses in the league. Even Baltimore’s stout defense couldn’t completely shut down the future HOF’er, so odds are Carolina won’t either. Regardless, volume trumps all and Fitz has seen 13 and 11 targets in his first two games. You can be certain that rookie QB Kyler Murray knows who his most trusted receiving threat is.

Nelson Agholor | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. DET

Alshon Jeffery is currently questionable for this week with a calf injury and DeSean Jackson is likely out for the next two weeks with an abdomen strain. Without those two on the field on Sunday night, Agholor quickly racked up 11 targets, catching eight for 107 yards and a touchdown. That Eagles O-line can’t seem to block for longer than a couple seconds most plays so, aside from Zach Ertz seeing his 10+ targets, Agholor should continue to see plenty of volume as he works out of the slot on short and intermediate routes.

Tight Ends to Target

Mark Andrews | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6.8k | @ KC

Andrews currently carries a “questionable” injury designation and missed practice Wednesday but indications point towards this being purely maintenance-related, as he was dealing with the same issue last week but still suited up. Andrews’ current 27% target share leads all tight ends and is a number that would rival most NFL WR1s. He’s very obviously schemed in as a primary option to this passing attack and we know the Ravens will be looking to go toe-to-toe with the best offense in football.

Darren Waller | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.9k | @ MIN

Once touchdown variance falls on Waller’s side, his DFS prices will quickly skyrocket. He simply does not come off of the field and his 98% snap rate is second among all TEs. He has a strong 23% target share and may not be in the sexiest of offenses but he’ll get showered with looks -- especially when trailing, as the Raiders should be this week as eight point underdogs to Minnesota.

Greg Olsen | DK: $3.7k, FD: $6.1k | @ ARI

On FanDuel, you likely just want to pay up for one of the premiere TEs since the pricing gap past Travis Kelce and the next dozen or so options isn’t that wide. But on DraftKings the pricing can up quite a bit of value. Olsen was one of the few things that worked correctly in the Panthers’ game last Thursday and he has now been targeted nine times in each of the first two weeks. The Cardinals rank last in the NFL and have given up 34.2 FPPG to opposing TEs.

Defensive Breakdown

New England Patriots | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5k | vs. NYJ

Between New England’s DST and Dallas’ DST, you’ve got two easy ‘plug and play’ defenses to choose from. It’s well known that Bill Belichick specializes in shutting down the opposing team’s primary weapon. In the case of the Jets, led by third string QB Luke Falk, shutting down Le’Veon Bell will essentially mean shutting down that entire team. If you need any other incentive, the Jets have just a 10.3 implied point total this week.

Detroit Lions | DK: $2.2k, FD: $3.5k | @ PHI

The Eagles likely put up their fair share of points but that O-line isn’t doing Carson Wentz any favors and their run game looks almost nonexistent. For a shot at a few sacks and a pick or two, the Lions should be a decent cheaper DST to target.

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