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- Top NFL Plays Week #3 | The Season Begins to Take Shape
Top NFL Plays Week #3 | The Season Begins to Take Shape
Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS
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Hello again to all you gridiron fanatics. How’d you enjoy week two of the NFL? I spent much of my weekend dodging Hurricane Florence but fortunately, I got to catch most of the football theatrics that the league had to offer. Through two weeks now, we are beginning to see what most teams are going to ‘be about’ in 2018. While I usually think around week four is when we’ll see more cemented team trends, player usage, defensive strengths and weaknesses, offensive tendencies and what have you, we have a large enough sample size at our disposal to start digging in our heels and begin taking strong stances on certain teams and players to target.
I’m sure you’re all caught up on the ‘Fitzmagic’ resurgence hype, the gun slingin’ Patty Mahomes leading his Chiefs on a torrid, history-setting pace, and how the Bills are so bad they drove a player to retirement at half-time! So let’s not waste any more time and get a look ahead at week three! (Also, I stand by Vontae Davis -- get outta Buffalo before the winter sets in… I get you, man.)
Games to Target
San Francisco @ Kansas City | 56.5 O/U
SF: 25 implied points | KC: 31.5 implied points
I get the feeling that wherever Kansas City plays at this year, it will somewhat emulate the “Coors Field” effect that MLB has. The Chiefs have the perfect storm of NFL fantasy production: a young, high-powered offense with play-making weapons at every skill position along with a very poor defense that will cause the offense to constantly stay aggressive. Mahomes is certainly due for some regression because he’s not throwing 80 TDs this year… but just because he’s unlikely to toss 6 TDs again this week doesn’t mean Tyfreak Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and Kareem Hunt won’t all be viable options nearly every week.
On the 49ers side, expect for the options here to carry considerably less ownership than their counterparts. Folks will still be on them considering this is the highest total out of all 16 games but feel free to go back to the well with Garoppolo and fellow TE George Kittle or current NFL rushing leader Matt Breida -- I also don’t think Alfred Morris should be ignored either but more on him later. I’m hoping Marquise Goodwin looks solid in practice this week and can suit up because no one in the KC secondary can go toe-to-toe with his speed and he’d be a great GPP target. Otherwise, Garcon should see quite a bit of looks and we could perhaps give Dante Pettis another shot after he fizzled out on me and plenty of others last week in some tournament lineups.
Green Bay @ Washington | 45.5 O/U
GB: 24.25 implied points | WAS: 21.25 implied points
I’ve noted before that I’ll look to feature a game to target that isn’t going to necessarily be super obvious or appealing to the general public. Last week it was the Eagles at the Bucs and we got a second dosage of Fitzmagic and some decent numbers from some Philly playmakers.
For Green Bay this week, Aaron Jones returns to the gameday roster from his two game suspension. It’s unclear if he will usurp Jamaal Williams right away, but considering Williams is only averaging 3.4 ypc on 31 carries through the first two games, it’s a definite possibility. Someone out of the backfield needs to take some pressure off of the hobbled Rodgers and it could be Jones who sported a 5.5 ypc average in 2017 on 81 carries and he had a couple huge games before Williams alternated in as the lead back. Speaking of the hobbled Rodgers, he’s still showing that he is capable of production and the Packers will likely keep him in spread shotgun formations for the foreseeable future, which still allows for all of his primary pass catchers to be viable. Many will flock to the Chiefs' passing attack up top this week and just completely overlook Rodgers in GPPs, along with his receiving corps of Adams, Allison, Graham and Cobb -- all of whom Rodgers is capable of dishing out the rock to in high doses.
For the ‘Skins, it’s really difficult to not like Chris Thompson out of the backfield after seeing 14 targets last week from Mr. Dink ‘n Dunk himself, Alex Smith. Adrian Peterson could very well take a back seat in terms of volume this week if Washington needs to play “catch-up,” while some other receiver besides Jordan Reed needs to emerge as a weapon for Smith. I’m betting one of Crowder, Doctson or Paul Richardson Jr. will score this week and I’d put my money on Richardson, who is leading the Washington wideouts with 12 targets and the most air yards on the team.
Quarterbacks to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Tom Brady (DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.5k) @ DET
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
I’m going to avoid the obvious spend up option at QB in Mahomes and I already mentioned that Rodgers & Co. should be a nice GPP pivot, so I’ll break out of the main slate and hit on… I mean, uhh speak about Tom Brady. In one of the bigger stories of the week, the Pats acquired the infamous Josh Gordon from the Browns on Monday and he should be available to suit up for Sunday Night Football. His predicted role in that first game is obviously anybody’s guess but it’s just another weapon for Brady and Belichick to spoil themselves with. Detroit is the worst rush defense up to this point, but with the Patriots backfield still a bit murky to figure out, don’t be surprised if all of their offensive touchdowns come through the air. The Pats have a 29.25 implied team total and the Lions are currently 9th in the NFL, allowing 72% of opponent pass attempts to be completed. A classic 325+ yard, 4 TD day from Brady on 35-40 pass attempts could very well be in the cards this week after dropping a double digit loss to the Jags this past Sunday.
Stack Options: Rob Gronkowski (Cash), Josh Gordon (GPP)
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Carson Wentz (DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.4k) vs. IND
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
First off, if you’re looking for a cash game QB in this range, Newton (DK especially) or Watson will likely be your safer bets. But looking to go a little contrarian here, I’ll be eyeing a discounted Wentz as he makes his return from his ACL tear this week at home versus Indy. According to Eagles HC Doug Pederson, Wentz will not be limited in any capacity, and if the general public will be scared to play him in fear of limitations or rustiness, then that’s completely fine with me! The Eagles could be without lead back Jay Ajayi, further putting more emphasis on the passing attack. And they are rocking a very solid implied team total of 27 points, so clearly Vegas expects the Eagles to pick up where they left off with Wentz at the helm. So far, the Colts have faced QBs Andy Dalton and Alex Smith and have allowed the 6th highest completion percentage to pass catchers at 73%. Through his first two highly impressive seasons, Wentz has a career completion rate of 61.5%, so this could be a very nice outing for him and his top targets.
Stack Options: Nelson Agholor (Cash), Zach Ertz (Cash)
💲 Low Salary 💲
Blake Bortles (DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.7k) vs. TEN
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
My interest in Bortles is heavily tied to whether or not Leonard Fournette suits up this week. When Fournette is out, the Jags are forced to take a more pass happy approach and Bortles can honestly pull off a nice stat line much of the time, as evidenced by his 29/45, 377 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT outing last week versus the Pats. He’s also able to add a bit of value with his legs as well, as he has 77 yards on 10 runs so far this season. I wouldn’t necesairly be looking for a huge production day like last week, but Tennessee is showing as a pretty mediocre pass defense so far and all four touchdowns they have given up have come through the air.
Stack Options: Keelan Cole (Cash), Dede Westbrook (GPP)
Wide Receivers to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Michael Thomas (DK: $8.9k, FD: $9k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
The Saints travel on the road for the first time this year to Atlanta for what is setting up to be a high scoring affair. Thomas has been an absolute force through the first two weeks, catching 28 of his 30 targets for 269 yards and three scores. He is also 2nd in the NFL in target share percentage, seeing 38% of Drew Brees’ pass attempts. A lot of his catches are coming on shorter routes across the field which the Falcons defense, often by design, funnels a lot of passes towards (also why RBs catch a ton of passes against them). Thomas is a major factor in the redzone as well, catching 6 of his 7 targets inside the 20 yard line already this year. He’ll be a major factor each and every time the Saints' offense takes the field.
Julio Jones (DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.7k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
In cash, Julio is more of a DraftKings play after seeing a $500 price drop from last week. For him to be just the the 6th most expensive WR this week over there is kinda confusing. But regardless, I expect good things from Matt Ryan’s top target this week. I noted above that Michael Thomas is 2nd in the NFL in target share percentage -- well he is trailing only Julio Jones, who has seen 39% of the Falcons’ targets so far. Jones is also running away with with the NFL lead in total air yards at 477 (next closest is Hopkins at 423 yards, then Antonio Brown at 356 yards). This basically means that Atlanta is looking to go to Julio often and deep down the field. So far on his 29 targets, he’s only caught 15 of them (51.7% catch rate). New Orleans is currently last in the NFL allowing for a 77% catch rate to receivers. All of this bodes pretty well for the big wide receiver and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Julio have that random monster 200+ yard game this week -- a feat that he seems to pull off every year. Don’t hold me to that but he’s likely my top WR for the week.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Allen Robinson II (DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.5k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
In week two, Robinson led all NFL wide receivers in target share percentage (41.2%) after bringing in 10 catches on 14 targets for 83 yards. He stands out as one of those guys who had a nice performance on Monday Night Football and avoided a likely deserved DFS salary increase (and actually dropped $800 in salary on DK). Jordan Howard will probably be the guy most people would want to target in this game but Arizona has not had much answer to opponents' passing attacks thus far, after surrendering the 7th most receiving yards. They have also allowed the 7th highest catch rate at 72%. Robinson makes for a nice volume play with about as good a shot as anyone else in this range to find the endzone.
Sammy Watkins (DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.2k)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
As a career Watkins hater dating back to his college days at Clemson (I’m a Gamecock fan) it pains me a bit to recommend him here, but he has a nice opportunity this week at an affordable price in arguably the league’s best offense. Watkins should see a good bit of 49ers CB Witherspoon, who got burnt deep several times against Detroit last week. His targets have also went up from five in week one to seven in week two and he added in a 31-yard end-around run as well. That, along with him leading all KC WRs in offensive snap rate at 86% is encouraging. Considering most of the ownership will be on the other premiere Chiefs players, I’ll definitely be taking Watkins in some GPP lineups while being well aware of his dud potential.
Devin Funchess (DK: $5k, FD: $6.2k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
In Carolina’s first full game without tight end Greg Olsen this past week, Devin Funchess saw his snap count go from 85% in week one to 99% in week two. He managed to bring in 7 of his 9 targets from Cam Newton for 77 yards. That isn’t some dazzling stat line but one that should more or less be about where his baseline lies moving forward for the foreseeable Greg Olsen-less future. It was also a week where Christian McCaffrey saw 15 targets, which everyone knew CMC’s target share would increase as well, but for him to regularly see 15 looks in the passing game is very unlikely. Funchess remains affordable and carries a solid amount of safety. He’s going to be in on nearly every play and often Cam Newton’s first read down the field. Touchdowns can’t be predicted as easily as targets can, but with Funchess in line for increased volume, the opportunity for hitting pay dirt rises along with it.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Paul Richardson Jr. (DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.7k)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
When highlighting the Green Bay at Washington game above, I noted that Richardson, out of the Redskins wide receivers this week, is my pick to score a TD (I mean, one of ‘em has to snag one right?!). Washington simply has to get something going down the field. And for now, Richardson has the longest average depth of target (aDOT) on the team at 10.3 yards and the most targeted air yards. So that’s at least who they’re looking to get going in that part of the field. It’s a bit of a dart throw, but this guy is an underrated receiver in my opinion and it’d be nice to see him get going.
Calvin Ridley (DK: $3.7k, FD: $5k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
After catching a touchdown last week en route to a 4 catch (5 targets), 64 yard day, I would expect Ridley to stay involved this week in what could easily turn into a shootout with New Orleans. The Falcons are facing another week without Devonta Freeman, which should sway their game script more towards the passing side of things once again. As much as I like Julio this week, he will obviously be the Saints primary defensive focus. I’ve never been someone who rolls out Sanu with a ton of confidence, so I’ll take the young kid out of Alabama. Currently, I don’t mind him as a cash punt either. The Falcons have an implied team total of 28 points, so there should be some opportunity to go around.
Running Backs to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Ezekiel Elliot (DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
I’m choosing to not lead off at the top with Kamara or Gurley. I believe if you want to roll with either of those guys, there’s nothing wrong with it but I’ll be focusing on guys who are just a tier below this week who have similar upside. Elliot was on 94% of the Cowboys' offensive snaps last week and lead the league in “market share” out of the backfield, touching the ball on 44% of plays when he was on the field. That’s some insanely high volume and I believe his matchup with Seattle this week could be an easier one than the Giants matchup he’s coming off of. This Dallas offense is pretty lackluster top to bottom, but when you have one guy seeing so much opportunity, you have to take notice. Zeke is clearly the most talented guy on the team and it seems he’s poised to get more looks in the passing department with 10 targets already this year (he only saw 38 targets in 10 games last year and 39 in 15 games in his 2016 rookie season). I expect this to be his best fantasy outing so far this season and I’m willing to take the savings to go down from Kamara/Gurley to Zeke or the next guy I’m going to talk about…
Saquon Barkley (DK: $7.6k, FD: $8k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Okay, 16 targets??? Most top wide receivers won’t see that many targets in a single game all season but here we have the Giants forcing the ball to their shiny new #2 overall pick any way they can. It wasn’t pretty, but Barkley came in 2nd in the NFL behind Zeke in week two market share, touching the ball on 37.3% of the plays he was on the field for. He’s not getting very much room at all to operate but it’s well known with the young rookie that all he needs is just a tiny bit of space then he can make one move and be gone. Houston is a middle of the road rush defense and this should be the best matchup for Barkley thus far. The Giants are still trying to figure out how to utilize him and I doubt he’ll see 16 targets again, but something like 18 rushes and 10 targets is very realistic. DFS is all about seeking volume and he’s going to get plenty of it. Saquon should be a nice contrarian pivot away from the big boys up top this week.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Chris Thompson (DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.5k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
I’ve kinda tagged on this game twice already but it’s hard to envision Green Bay either not leading or being hot on the heels of Washington on the scoreboard for most or all of this game. In this scenario, expect a solid dose of Thompson, primarily as a receiving threat. In this offense, he’s going to see around 10 targets most weeks and he’s well known to be a prolific producer on a per touch basis. Last season in PPR scoring, Chris Thompson, at 1.47 fantasy points per touch, trailed only Alvin Kamara who had the highest FPPT at 1.59 and had arguably the most productive season in history on a per touch basis. The game script, floor and ceiling is all there for Thompson to be considered in all formats.
Kareem Hunt (DK: $6k, FD: $7.9k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Apologies to the FanDuel players because Hunt is maybe on the very high end as a “mid salary” option but his $6k price tag on DraftKings can’t go unmentioned. Hunt may not be off to the blazing start that he had in his 2017 rookie season but he is still touching the ball on 34% of plays that he is on the field for and that’s with having only two targets so far. He did get himself a receiving score last week but the Chiefs having 10 passing TD’s and zero rushing TD’s is simply another one of those things due to “regress” to more of a semblance of NFL offensive normalcy. The 49ers appear to be another middle of the pack rush defense allowing 4.2 ypc but have given up 21 receptions to RBs through the two games they’ve played. Given, Theo Riddick accounted for 9 of those, but I’d still look for Kareem to continue to get his carries while getting more involved through the air as well.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Corey Clement (DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.8k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Clement’s viability hinges primarily on Ajayi’s status for this week along with Darren Sproles (who appears to be more doubtful to play). If Ajayi sits, you should be able to count on Clement for close to 15 touches, assuming Wendell Smallwood doesn’t eat into his workload too much. Clement looked really solid last week after racking up 85 total yards and a touchdown on 11 touches. With Wentz back under center, it should only open up even more room for the run game to flourish. So keep an eye on Ajayi’s status and you could have a nice value RB here against a not so scary Colts defense.
Alfred Morris (DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.5k)
Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Everyone is distracted by the numbers Breida has put up, but Alfred Morris is not going away. Morris is out-snapping Breida 50% to 42.3% this season and last week he was 17th out of all NFL RBs with a 26.7% market share (ahead of Breida at 23.3%). Obviously Breida has emerged as the more dynamic back but that doesn’t mean Morris couldn’t fall into the end zone twice this week at 2% ownership! I also imagine the 49ers will look to keep the ball out of Mahomes & Company’s hands by continuing to use a heavy dosage of both of their running backs.
Tight Ends to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Zach Ertz (DK: $6.8k, FD: $7k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
It’s definitely a tough call this week if you’re spending up at tight end, but I’ll lean slightly towards this reliable target hog for Carson Wentz. Ertz still saw double digit targets in both games with Foles but you’ve got to assume the *quality* of targets will be a bit better for him moving forward. Last season Ertz saw a target share of 23%, just a shade behind NFL TE target share leaders Travis Kelce and Jack Doyle who posted a 24% mark. With Alshon Jeffery unavailable to suit up this week, expect around 10 to 12 looks to come his way, including a couple down in the redzone.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
George Kittle (DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.8k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Kittle burned plenty of people last week as one of the most popular plays at the position, but to be fair, he could have easily had a touchdown that he got pass interfered on down the field. The matchup only gets better as the Chiefs just got torched by Jesse James to the tune of a 5/138/1 line. Hot Take: Kittle is better than Jesse James.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Mark Andrews (DK: $2.6k, FD: $4k)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
If your slate includes the MNF game, I’d give O.J. Howard a look for some more upside at a pretty cheap price. But for a total punt play, why not Andrews? The Ravens are using a trio of tight ends at the moment with Andrews, Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams, but Andrews at least has back-to-back four target games and a touchdown in the last contest going for him and Denver's defense is not particularly strong in defending the middle of the field. He’s probably the most athletic guy out of the group and has as good of a shot as most any TE in this range to do something noteworthy. Of course, the popular punt TE pick this week is going to be Will Dissly, so using a guy like Andrews in GPPs could be a viable pivot while saving you a bit of salary.
Defensive Breakdown
Chicago Bears (DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.3k) @ARI
The Bears D/ST should be the nuts play considering the savings you’ll get from going down from the Vikings. With Larry Fitzgerald a bit hobbled, the Cardinals are even more one dimensional than they were before… if they even had a full dimension to work with anyway. Expecting a handful of sacks and a couple interceptions while allowing under 14 points is all but expected here.
Dallas Cowboys (DK: $2.2k, FD: $3.4k) @SEA
I’ll roll with the Cowboys as my GPP sleeper defense this week. Russell Wilson has very few weapons to work with, and though he can make a lot happen on his own, the Cowboys looked good Sunday night getting a ton of pressure on Eli Manning. Wilson is *slightly* more nimble than Eli and can avoid some of those potential sacks but that doesn’t mean they won’t force some errant passes and have a shot at a pick six or a scoop 'n score.
Thursday Night Special
Rashard Higgins
(DK: $3k/$3.2k single game salary, FD: $4.5k/$7.5k single game salary)
Jarvis Landry’s status for Thursday Night Football is suddenly in question. Higgins is coming off a 5 catch for 47 yard performance after seeing 7 targets. And his snap count percentage increased from 60% in week one to 74% in week two following the Josh Gordon trade. He could be worth a punt in the extended Thursday slates to begin with but should be a near lock if Landry sits out. Just remember not to put him in your flex spot if you're playing the Thursday-Monday slate.
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