Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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It’s hard to believe we’re already entering the fourth week of the NFL season and some teams are already going on their byes (Jets and 49ers this week). As Greg Landry said in his recent “NFL Takeaways” write-up, which you can find linked above, we’re really starting to get a feel for teams and what their identities are going to be this year. While we may only be scratching the surface on what this NFL season has in store for us, at least we’re able to peek in, squint our eyes, and get a vague glimpse at things that were too foggy to see a few weeks ago

We’ll kick off this week with a focus on the 12 game Sunday main slate. Aside from the Chargers being 16.5 point favorites over Miami, most of these games are projected by Vegas to stay pretty close. In total, ten of these games carry one score spreads. Here is an overview of all 12 games with implied totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Here I will briefly outline a couple match-ups that could be worthy of game stack consideration. Just like in other sports, if you land on several players in a single lineup who get caught up in a high scoring affair, you can quickly launch your way atop the leaderboards. Game stacking is more ideal for, but not limited to, GPP contests as opposed to cash games.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Detroit Lions | 54 O/U

KC: 30.3 implied points | DET: 23.8 implied points

No shocker here. Currently, this is our only game on this slate with an implied total above 50 points. Mahomes & Company are coming into town and will make Detroit a touchdown underdog on their own field. Both of these teams rank inside the top half of the league in offensive pace and thus far, from a fantasy perspective, both defenses are pretty ‘middle of the pack’ in terms of fantasy points allowed. The Chiefs rank 14th, allowing 103.13 DKFP per game to all positions while the Lions rank 15th giving up 102.67 DKFP. This game has GPP upside written all over it and we are going to see plenty of deep shots taken. Both Mahomes and Stafford rank second in the NFL with 23 pass attempts of 20+ yards down the field. Currently, Mahomes is completing 56.5% of those deep balls while Stafford’s deep ball completion rate sits at 34.8%. Now that Detroit has a new-look offense willing to at least take those shots down the field this year, we’re going to see a more aggressive Lions team attempt to go toe-to-toe with the most prolific offense in the league. I believe the Lions can actually hang with the Chiefs here so don’t sleep on ‘em! Should be a good one!

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3) | 49 O/U

WAS: 23 implied points | NYG: 26 implied points

The Giants and Redskins rank as the fourth and fifth fastest paced offenses in the NFL and both of their defenses are inside the top four in terms of most fantasy points allowed per game. Add in the fact that there's just a three point spread here and that makes this game an incredibly easy target. Fast offenses, bad defenses, and a close spread -- that’s how back-and-forth shootouts are born. All eyes will be on Daniel Jones, aka ‘Danny Dimes’ after his wildly productive performance last week in his NFL regular season debut. The Giants are obviously going to be without their superstar tailback so some additional weight may fall on the shoulders of Jones and his pass catchers. That shouldn’t be an issue considering the Redskins are on a short week have a defense that is allowing a 79% completion rate. On the Washington offensive side, yes the short week is tough, but they’re going from playing quite possibly the best defense in the league to perhaps the worst -- save for maybe Miami. All in all, there may not be any current superstar names to choose from in this one, but some seem to be emerging and you have to feel great about all the potential fantasy points to be had here.

Quarterbacks to Target

Jared Goff | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k | vs. TB

Looking for a less obvious name near the top of QB pricing and Goff seems to stand out. He may be struggling with only 246 YPG and a 4:3 TD:INT ratio, but getting a home game against the Bucs, who just got picked apart by Daniel Jones, may be the medicine Goff needs to really get things going. Last year, Goff had some pretty extreme home/road splits. In his2018 home games, he posted a 68.3% completion rate, a 22:3 TD:INT ratio, and a 116.7 passer rating. On the road, his completion rate dropped to 60.9% with a 10:9 TD:INT ratio and an 82.7 passer rating. So far this year, his one home game (versus NO) has proven to be his most efficient game, as well as his best fantasy game. The Bucs defense may be improved from last year but they’re still an exploitable match-up. If Sean McVay and Jared Goff can’t get things clicking in this spot, well I suppose I’ll have to cool it on this Rams offense for a bit (except for Cooper Kupp… that’s a certified WR1 right there).

Russell Wilson | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.8k | @ ARI

Good lord, if Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer would just realize that Russell Wilson is the best player on the field basically every game, they might actually make it back to another Super Bowl. He put up an insane performance last week when the Seahawks were in comeback mode but, honestly, he’s the type of player who is capable of that kind of output many weeks. With their run-heavy approach struggling to gain momentum, Seattle simply needs to start turning more to Wilson and the passing game. Wilson will get one of the cushiest match-ups imaginable this week. Arizona has allowed 30.27 DraftKings FPPG to QBs this season as well as the fourth highest passer rating (119.3). Considering the Cardinals are the fastest paced offense in the league, the Seahawks should see some extra offensive plays themselves as a result. Book Wilson as one of the highest floor, highest ceiling options. He’ll be popular for plenty of sound reasons.

Matthew Stafford | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.9k | vs. KC

There are several viable cheap quarterbacks you could spend down on this week but Stafford really stands out as a potential value on both sites. Clearly, the Lions will very likely be playing from behind for much of this game and I mentioned earlier how much they’re letting Stafford throw deep this season. His 551 air yards thrown trail only Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan through three weeks. Really, he just needs to improve on that 34.8% completion rate on deep passes. You’ll see Stafford in some GPP winning lineups at times this year.

Running Backs to Target

Christian McCaffrey | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | @ HOU

You have to wonder if Kyle Allen starting in place of Cam Newton actually benefits CMC. We don’t want to overreact after one week against the Bucs defense but, if anything, I don’t think this is a worse situation for McCaffrey. I don’t think you have to force him into lineups here but you know he is the rare breed of NFL running back that is “game script proof.” He leads all RBs in snap count percentage and last week was the second game already this season where he commanded a 45+% market share (touches divided by total team offensive plays). Houston has allowed 5.4 YPA on the ground and ranks middle of the pack (13th) in FPPG allowed to RBs. They’ve also allowed the second most receptions to RBs (24) so this match-up doesn’t scare me at all.

Marlon Mack | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. OAK

Mack has shown some extreme elusiveness with 162 total yards created this season, which trails only Christian McCaffrey (168). He also ranks fourth in tackles evaded (22). Despite the Raiders allowing just a 4.1 YPA on the ground, they’re still giving up the 10th most FPPG to RBs. Mack has a stranglehold on the early down work in Indy and is even starting to see a few targets come his way as well. The Colts are seven point home favorites which hints at some positive game flow coming Mack’s way.

Devonta Freeman | DK: $5k, FD: $6.2k | vs. TEN

I somewhat poopoo’d Freeman last week and vouched for Ito Smith as an intriguing tournament punt, but Freeman came out and actually had a decent day in Indy, amassing 95 total yards on 19 touches. He obviously hasn’t had a great game yet but things are trending up. He played on 90% of offensive snaps last week and commanded a 35.2% market share, which ranked sixth among week three RBs. Tennessee hasn’t given up a ton of fantasy scoring to the opposing ground game this season but they do allow 4.8 YPA and 5.3 receptions to RBs per game. This could be a sneaky spot to catch Freeman with low ownership in tournaments.

Adrian Peterson | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.5k | @ NYG

AP is only averaging 2.8 YPC on 22 rushes this season but if there’s any week for him to return some value, it’d be against the Giants. The last two match-ups for Washington, against Dallas and Chicago, obviously weren’t easy ones. Chris Thompson has been seeing more time on the field but assuming the Redskins can hang around on the scoreboard in this one, the game flow should favor more towards Peterson. I’m not fully confident endorsing this play at all but, who knows, it could be a nice pivot off of the Wayne Gallman Jr. chalk. And, really, if AP rushes something like 15 times for 70 yards and two TDs, who would be surprised?

Justin Jackson | DK: $4.1k, FD: $6.2k | @ MIA

FanDuel seems to be on top of things with pricing Jackson up where they did, so this is more for a DraftKings tournament punt. So far, the backup RBs that the Dolphins have faced (Tony Pollard, Rex Burkhead, and Gus Edwards) have all received solid volume due to blowouts. Miami allows 39.7 DraftKings FPPG to RBs and Ekeler isn’t going to be forced to do everything, especially if Los Angeles gets up big early on. For $4,100 on DraftKings you very well might get 15 high value touches from Jackson this week. Melvin Gordon is reportedly ending his holdout but won’t play this week. You can bet Jackson will be looking to prove that he still deserves to have a role in the offense going forward.

Wide Receivers to Target

Keenan Allen | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.1k | @ MIA

With this potentially being the final week before Melvin Gordon is back in action with the Chargers, we’ve got to get some Keenan Allen exposure in this current extreme high volume role while we can. Gordon’s impact won’t affect Allen’s strong floor but it will likely take away some of his ceiling games like the one we saw last week (17 targets, 13 receptions, 183 yards, 2 TDs). Allen leads all NFL receivers in targets (42), target share (36.5%), receptions (29), yards (404), and targeted air yards (298). He’ll draw one of the most favorable corner back match-ups of the week when he faces off against Miami slot cornerback Chris Lammons, who has been targeted on 31% of routes ran against him.

Cooper Kupp | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k | vs. TB

Things are always pretty fluid with this Rams offense but you can’t deny that Kupp is starting to separate himself as Jared Goff’s go-to receiver. Kupp’s 29.8% target share ranks fifth among WRs and he’s posting a 95.8% true catch rate. With Todd Gurley’s role diminishing quite noticeably so far this season, Kupp moving the chains with high percentage catches over the middle is probably going to be a common occurrence in this offense -- at least for the time being.

Tyler Lockett | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.6k | @ ARI

If everyone is predicting a huge game for Russell Wilson, surely his top target is due for another great outing as well. Lockett’s 28% target share is the 10th highest in the NFL and he rarely comes off the field, with a 95.8% snap count. We’ve seen this Cardinals secondary get beaten badly each week this season so Lockett’s speed and athleticism should prevail.

Terry McLaurin | DK: $4.5k, FD: $6.3k | @ NYG

McLaurin continued his impressive rookie campaign on Monday Night Football (8 targets, 6 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD), despite the difficult Bears match-up. His price actually dropped $500 on DraftKings thanks to salaries being released on Sunday night. McLaurin has seen at least seven targets in each of the first three games and has emerged as Case Keenum’s primary receiver. The Giants allow a league high 56.4 DraftKings FPPG to WRs so this should be a safe spot to gain some exposure to McLaurin once again.

Preston Williams | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.2k | vs. LAC

This Dolphins offense is scary bad, as everyone is aware, but in Josh Rosen’s first start last week he sent 12 targets Williams’ way. That was good enough for a 29.3% target share and ranked 11th among all players in week three. The rookie wide out may have only caught a third of those looks but he’s going to continue to see plenty of volume on a team that is going to be playing from behind… a lot.

Tight Ends to Target

Evan Engram | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.8k | vs. WAS

Engram is an absurd athlete for someone with a 6’3”, 240 lb frame. On his 75 yard touchdown catch-and-run last week he reached a top speed of 20.84 mph according to Next Gen Stats -- the fastest speed by a tight end this year. There’s a well-known saying that goes “a rising tide lifts all ships.” The rising tide, in this case, would be Daniel Jones. Time will tell for certain but he seems to have added a much better dynamic to this offense. With Saquon Barkley sidelined, expect a bit more work to fall on the passing game and benefit Engram, who was already in line for consistent volume to begin with.

Will Dissly | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5.4k | @ ARI

If you haven’t noticed yet, playing tight ends against the Cardinals is definitely “a thing.” Here are some performances opposing tight ends have had against them this year:

Week 1) TJ Hockenson: 9 targets, 6 catches, 131 yards, 1 TD, 28.1 DKFP

Week 2) Mark Andrews: 9 targets, 8 catches, 112 yards, 1 TD, 28.2 DKFP

Week 3) Greg Olsen: 7 targets, 6 catches, 75 yards, 2 TDs, 25.5 DKFP

Dissly has seen 12 targets over the last two weeks and has caught 11 of those for 112 yards and three touchdowns. The Seahawks also traded away second string TE Nick Vannett earlier this week. Vannett was in on 38.4% of offensive snaps this season while Dissly has posted a 55.6% snap count. Safe to say, Dissly's snaps are inevitably going to go up. The Seahawks seem to be using him as an established receiving threat, especially in the redzone.

Gerald Everett | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. TB

Everett is not much more than a potential GPP punt at the position, so long as Tyler Higbee continues to sit out with an apparent lung issue. Last week, without Higbee sharing snaps, Everett logged an 88% snap rate. The Bucs have allowed 20.33 DK FPPG to tight ends this year, which is behind only the aforementioned Arizona Cardinals. A strong match-up meets potential opportunity for Everett here. He is a viable redzone threat for a team that should move the ball up and down the field quite a bit this week.

Defensive Breakdown

Los Angeles Chargers | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,300 | @ MIA

Is this defense facing Miami? Check. That’s about all that needs to be said here.

Denver Broncos | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. JAX

The Broncos could work out as a contrarian, cheaper defense to deploy this week. Somehow they have zero sacks and zero turnovers through three games but that will surely not be the case for long. Everyone is caught up on the Minshew-mania so I doubt anyone will be looking this way. Denver’s defense has been pretty stingy, only allowing 314 total yards per game (ranks 9th in NFL) they just need to get the sacks and turnovers rolling in.

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Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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