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Week 4 Breakdown - The Need for Snead

QB:

• Drew Brees, NO (@MIA) - CASH Going back to last year the Dolphins were near the bottom in all pass defense categories. This year, thru their (only) 2 games this season, they have allowed 290 yards and 1 TD per game. Which admittedly looks like an improvement, untill you see they've only faced Josh McCown and Philip Rivers. The better of the 2 QBs, Philip Rivers threw for 331 yards and a TD, and completed 31 of his 39 passes. Miami has allowed the highest passing completion percentage on the season at 77.5% of passes being completed. Brees will also be getting back the 2nd best WR on the Saints this week, The Need For Willie Snead. 

• Deshaun Watson, HOU (vs TEN) - TOURNAMENTThe Titans so far on the season have allowed 286 passing yards and 2.3 TDs per game thru the first 3 weeks. That was versus Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, and Russell Wilson. The Titans allowed Russell Wilson to put up 373 yards and 4 TDs last week, after SF and GB limited him to 198 and 158 yards, with only a single passing TD. Deshaun Watson should be able to take advantage of this weak defense, and may even have Will Fuller returning this week to add to his list of weapons available. The Titans only have 2 sacks and 5 QB hits all season, which is in part why Russell Wilson was successful last week.

• Matt Ryan, ATL (vs BUF) - Uncle Pete’s Contrarian PickHe's done a lot of nothing so far this season and should be very low owned this week. Ryan will be going against what so far this season looks like a very good Buffalo pass defense which has allowed ZERO pass touchdowns on the season. So why would you want to use Matt Ryan? Lets dive into who Buffalo has faced: Trevor Siemian, Cam Newton, and Josh McCown. Newton in week 2, was missing wide open receivers as he's still recovering from his shoulder surgery. Trevor Siemian and Josh McCown faced this defense on the road in Buffalo. Matt Ryan is at home, and has the ability and the weapons available to make Buffalo look bad. Tyrod Taylor on the other side of the ball has the ability to force Atlanta to need to score points, which could turn this game into a shoot out.

Other QBs to consider: 

• Eli Manning, NYG (@TB) - TB has allowed 335 pass yards per game so far, without a running game Eli will have to be throwing downfield.

• Trevor Siemian, DEN (vs OAK) - He looks like a completely different QB this year, confident and making good throws to high end WRs. Facing OAK who has allowed the 5th most FP to QBs on the young season.

• Cam Newton, CAR (@NE) - His bad shoulder is making him hard to trust, but he's got yet another good matchup. NE has allowed 341.7 pass yards and 2.7 TDs per game so far.

RB:

• Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (vs. LAR) - CASH So far on the season the Rams have allowed 1.7 TDs and 135.7 yards per game to RBs. That was against the Colts, Redskins, and 49ers. The Rams haven't even faced a top tier RB yet this season, and they've given up the 2nd most yards to running backs. Ezekiel Elliott will be energized by the home crowd, in what could be his last game played for a while. As the appeals court hears his case on Monday Oct 2, and could possibly uphold his 6-game suspension starting week 5. Ezekiel Elliott will no doubt want to give the fans, and his team something to remember in case his suspension is upheld.

•  Le'Veon Bell, PIT (@BAL) - TOURNAMENT This will be his 2nd week as the Tournament option, for most of the same reasons as last week. He had a respectable fantasy performance last week, but he hasn't exploded yet, and for his high ceiling, he will remain under-owned. Going against the Baltimore Ravens, on the road where Big Ben generally struggles should allow for more rushing opportunities for Bell. Since 2015, Le'Veon Bell has scored more than 30 DK points in 2 of the 3 games played. The Ravens on the season have allowed .3 TDs and 94 yards per game to opposing RBs. However, they have only faced the Bengals, Browns, and Jaguars so far and had large leads by half time in 2 of those games, which lowered the rushing opportunities for the opposing teams. This game should remain close, Vegas currently only has the Steelers favored by 3 points, the running game should remain a viable threat for the whole game. 

• Jacquizz Rodgers, TB (vs NYG) - ContrarianHe had a super disappointing week 3, where he only had 5 carries and 15 yards, which means he's going to be very low owned this week. This will be the last week Jacquizz is the lead RB for the Bucs, as Doug Martin will return the following week. He'll likely want to at least leave a good impression with the team, that he could do this job given the opportunity. Most people believe the Giants defense to be fairly stout, but on the season have allowed 2 rush TDs (8th most) and 130.3 rushing yards (3rd most) per game to opposing RBs. After the massive loss to the Vikings last week, look for Tampa Bay to return to the ground game to ensure a balanced offense and keep their team in the game.

Other RBs to consider: 

• Christian McCaffrey, CAR (@NE) - NE is allowing the most receiving yards to running backs so far with 84.3 yards/game. Downside: McCaffrey could also be the #1 thing Belichick wants to stop this week.

• Leonard Fournette, JAX (@NYJ) - He's had a very consistent workload, and the Jets have been generous against opposing running backs on the season.

• A.J. Green, CIN (@CLE) - CASH Green was targeted 13 times last week, showing the Bengals new offensive coordinator is willing to target their top option early and often. Look for more of the same this week in a nice matchup against the Cleveland Browns who have allowed big games to 2 other top end WRs already this season; Antonio Brown (32.3 DK FP) and T.Y. Hilton (31.3 DK FP). Greens last 2 games versus the Browns have resulted in 2 TDs and 297 yards of offense. The Browns also have a better offense this year than they have had in the recent past, which could mean even more need for scoring opportunities for A.J. Green, as the Bengals are only favored by 3 points in this game.

• Keenan Allen, LAC (vs PHI) - TOURNAMENT Coming off a disappointing Week 3 where he only managed 5 receptions and 61 yards, he will be a bit lower owned than he should be heading into an excellent matchup this week. The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 167 receiving yards per game and 3 TDs to WRs on the season. So far the Chargers have had 2 difficult matchups against Denver and Kansas City where Keenan has struggled. Keenan was able to thrive in their easiest matchup against Miami in Week 2. Look for Keenan Allen to have a monster game in this matchup as well, as the Chargers will want to secure their first win of the season at home on Sunday. The Chargers have the 6th highest implied point total of the Sunday games with a 1 point spread, so there should be ample scoring opportunities in this matchup.

• Sterling Shepard, NYG (@TB) - CONTRARIAN This is counting on him remaining low owned, with people counting his last game as a fluke. It may surprise you to find out, but Sterling Shepard has had 5 redzone targets in the last 2 games, which is tied for most over that time period. He's only secured 1 of those 5 for a catch however, so hopefully they don't lose faith in his ability down there yet. The Giants main problem has been the ability to keep Eli on his feet, thankfully Tampa Bay only has 9 QB hits on the season, only the Titans and Raiders have fewer. Eli should have a little more time standing this game than he has had in the past few, which will allow for him to get the ball downfield.

>> Click Here to See Redzone Usage <<

Other WRs to consider: 

• DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (vs TEN) - 4th most targeted WR on the season. TEN is one of the worst defenses against WRs so far this season.

• Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (vs SF) - As long as David Johnson remains out, the Cardinals need the pass game for any chance to win games.

• Charles Clay, BUF (@ATL) - Cash Tyrod Taylor has yet to throw the ball more than 30 times in a game, mostly because game flow hasn't forced him to. This week the Bills travel to Atlanta where that's expected to change. Enter Charles Clay who has been solid this year (for a tight end) despite the lack of passing. Clay is second on the team in targets, and if that continues this week, he should have plenty of volume, and he has shown to be a red zone threat as well with 2 touchdowns already on the year. 

• Evan Engram, NYG (@TB) - Tournament  Here's a salary-cap saver that has had 4+ catches and 40+ yards in each of the first three games this year. He did this despite the Giants struggling mightily in the first two weeks. The Giants looked like they broke out of their offensive slump last week against the Eagles and now they get a matchup with the Bucs who have allowed 300+ yards to Mike Glennon and Case Keenum in their two games this year. If Engram can maintain his role in this offense, he can provide a very solid return on investment this week.

Other TEs to consider:

• Ertz, PHI (@LAC): High floor, Alshon will likely be shadowed by Casey Hayward.

• Witten, DAL (v. LAR): Last week was probably a fluke. Dallas threw only 18 times and barely had the ball. Prescott threw 50 and 39 passes in the other two games.

• Cook, OAK (@ DEN): If there is a weak spot in Denver's defense it's at tight end.

Def:

• Jaguars D/ST @NYJ: (CASH) Jets Implied Total: 18  For cash games, don’t over-think it. Even though many will be on this, follow the crowd and take the defense playing the Jets. Defenses against the Jets haven't been overly dominant so far this year, but the Jets have yet to score more than two touchdowns and I don't expect that to change this week. The Jags D has shown their capability to score as they already have two double-digit games on DraftKings. A minor concern is how the Jags react to the long flight home after playing in London last week, but that's not enough to scare me.  

• Ravens D/ST v. Pitt (Tournament): Pitt Implied Total: 22.5 This game has one of the lowest totals, so I'll take the home defense in this affair. The Ravens are coming off of an embarrassment against the Jags of all teams, but I think the Ravens are more like the defense that scored 42 DK points in its first two games. The Pittsburgh offense doesn't travel well, and these games have been historically low scoring with the Ravens D averaging over 10 DK points in their last three home games against Pittsburgh. The Ravens had a long flight home after last week, and the Steelers have something to prove after last week as well, so this could backfire, but if this hits, and I think it will, few others will likely be celebrating. 

Other DEF to consider:

• Seahawks, v. IND: Seattle in Seattle against a backup QB who wasn't even on the roster before this month.

• Lions, @ MIN: If Case Keenum starts, look for some serious regression after last week.

• Giants, @ TB: This Giants D is better than the numbers say. They're overdue for a good game and Jameis is a turnover machine.

INJURIES TO WATCH:

• Matt Forte, NYJ - Dealing with Turf Toe, likely out this week, and perhaps longer. Look for Powell to get more carries.

• Shane Vereen, NYG - Injury prone Vereen is dealing with a calf injury, hard to call what his status will be at this point.

• Will Fuller, HOU - Looking to make his season debut this week, following a collar bone injury in training camp.

• Melvin Gordon, SD - Dealing with a knee issue and minor bone bruises. He had surgery for micro fractures in the same knee previously. Could mean a limited work load for him this week.

• Doug Baldwin, SEA - Dealing with a groin issue, though he expects to play through it. He'll be hard to trust, until we see how he looks while playing through this injury.

• Cam Newton, NO - Still dealing with the shoulder issues following surgery, he's expected to play, but doesn't seem to have the upside he once did.

• Jay Ajayi, MIA - Dealing with knee issues, he's expected to play. However he's hard to trust, but he also has a great matchup...

• John Ross, CIN - Still not practicing, unlikely to play this week.

• Rob Kelley, WAS - No word on his injury status yet, it looked like he was going to play in Week 3. He has a good chance to return this week.

• Sam Bradford, MIN - Has not practiced this week, he's going to be a game time decision.

Week 3 In Review:

• Chuckchuck8, Winner of DraftKings million dollar 💵 contest got 229.38, Only .30 of a difference from last weeks winning millimaker(229.08)😮. He had 6 entries($120). Went with Kizer as QB.

• ksmurfs2000 Took down the $3entry $100k contest, with only 3entries($9). Winning score 229.48, would have also won the million dollar contest 😔

Good news is more regular guys winning, less 🦈! 

Here's what the Week 3, PERFECT Lineup looked like...

You can always watch it come together every week in real-time:

https://www.FantasySportsCo.com/Perfect/Sport/NFL/

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