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- Top NFL Plays Week #4 | Young Guns Taking Over
Top NFL Plays Week #4 | Young Guns Taking Over
Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS
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We’re back with another edition of the LineStar Weekly Pylon! The NFL continues to offer up surprises each week, doesn’t it? Folks are clamoring to know how defenders should actually sack the quarterback, the Buffalo Bills felt like ruining everyone’s survivor pools with one of the biggest upsets in years over the Vikings, Ryan Fitzpatrick becomes the first QB in NFL history to throw for 400+ yards in three straight games, Baker-mania is already in full force in Cleveland after one half of football and the Patriots are being written off in September once again. There’s plenty of emerging talent popping up left and right as well and some enticing match-ups to look into once again this week, so let’s get into it!
How to sack a quarterback in the NFL....wait nvm.
— Sean McGann (@seanmickeyG14)
8:27 PM • Sep 23, 2018
Games to Target
Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons | 51.5 O/U
CIN: 23.25 implied points | ATL: 28.25 implied points
The Bengals travel down South to face off against the Falcons and their depleted defense and there are heaps of appealing DFS options in this game -- many of which I’ll hit on more in-depth further down. On the Bengals side, Andy Dalton appears to be one of the best value options on the slate at quarterback as the Falcons are now without both of their starting safeties and middle linebacker and are bleeding yards all over the field. Giovanni Bernard should be in line for plenty of work again and blossoming receiving talent Tyler Boyd looks to be in for another solid outing as well, especially if fellow stud receiver AJ Green, who is nursing a groin injury, is limited in-game or sits out completely.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons are coming off of a disheartening loss in a shootout with New Orleans but they’ll have zero time to wallow in pity if they want to avoid a 1-3 start to the year. The Bengals defense should pose a stronger threat than the Saints porous ‘D’ last week, but with rookie Calvin Ridley bursting onto the scene with a three touchdown performance and the ever dangerous Julio Jones present and a steady producer in Tevin Coleman in the lineup, there’s a lot to like on this side of the ball. It’s crazy to think the Falcons are averaging 28.7 points a game and Julio has yet to score a touchdown. But given their implied team total is right on the money with their seasonal average thus far, perhaps he can find some action in the endzone come his way.
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants | 50 O/U
NO: 26.75 implied points | NYG: 23.25 implied points
This is another game that should get a lot of attention from a DFS perspective. In the same light as the Chiefs, the Saints will have to stay hyper-aggressive on offense in many games this year due to their awful and banged up defense. This will make Brees, Kamara and Michael Thomas top targets nearly every week. I won’t be playing him anywhere this week, but I’ll be interested to see how Cam Meredith’s involvement increases against the Giants after seeing 43% of snaps and catching his lone target for an 11 yard TD against the Falcons. He’s a talented receiver and may eventually out-snap Ted Ginn who saw 66% of snaps in week three.
On the Giants side, Eli showed he can still dial it in after completing 25 of 29 pass attempts (86.2%) last week versus the Texans. Now he gets a shot at home against this Saints secondary that is allowing 337 yards a game through the air and who just lost another defensive back for the year in Patrick Robinson. This will certainly make Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Saquon Barkley out of the backfield all very popular options this week, and Eli should be an interesting GPP play.
Quarterbacks to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Matt Ryan (DK: $6.1k | FD: $8.1k) vs. CIN
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
This week I’m deciding to not write about one of the QBs at the very top because I just don’t think you’ll need to go pricey at the position like most weeks. So I’m not going to force someone in this write-up when I don’t see a need to. Ryan is the 8th most expensive quarterback on the DraftKings Thursday thru Monday slate and 5th most expensive on FanDuel. After the opening dud against Philly, he’s had very solid back-to-back games at home with fantasy outputs of 31.68 and 43.16 points and should be in line to return value this week at home once again. The Bengals have allowed the 9th most passing yards in the NFL (270 yards/game) and opposing quarterbacks are completing 65.2% of passes. With the emergence of Calvin Ridley early on in his rookie year, secondaries can no longer hone in solely on Julio Jones and expect to shut Matt Ryan down. With running back Devonta Freeman still slated to miss this game, that should just put more of an emphasis on the passing attack. And with Atlanta projected to score 28.25 points, Ryan could easily attribute for 3+ TDs this week.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Deshaun Watson (DK: $6.3k | FD: $7.6k) @IND
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
I know Watson is $200 more than Ryan on DraftKings but salaries didn’t match-up across both sites too evenly with these guys, but $6,300 is still what I’d consider a “mid salary” quarterback. For the last two games, Watson has been putting up really solid fantasy outputs (29 and 26.8 points) despite the fact that he and the Texans offense really aren’t playing all that well, averaging under 20 points a game on their way to an 0-3 start. But Watson certainly seems to be due for a monster game that he’s shown the capability of producing last year and he’s averaging 40 yards rushing per game, which only adds to his floor. I’d also expect him to find the endzone on the ground sooner rather than later. Houston is hurting a bit in the wide receiver depth department after placing slot receiver Bruce Ellington on IR this week, but they still have two dominant receivers in Nuk Hopkins and Will Fuller. They’ll both be getting a ton of looks come their way and Watson often looks for the big play down field several times a game. The Colts have surprisingly been a solid pass defense, allowing only 242 yards and one touchdown a game through the air, but Watson should be the most dynamic passer they’ve faced thus far.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Andy Dalton (DK: $5.4k | FD: $7.4k) @ATL
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Assuming AJ Green suits up this week, Dalton will likely be a favorite of mine to target for cash games. As I noted above, Atlanta’s secondary is in shambles and are now allowing 276 yards and two scores a game -- numbers that are likely to rise after all of their injuries. Desmond Trufant is really the only solid guy back there at this point. With Joe Mixon set to miss another week, the Bengals will be a pass first offense as Dalton has attempted 46 and 42 passes the previous two games. He’s shown a solid floor through the first three weeks of the season and the Bengals could be caught up in a shootout on the road as five point underdogs.
Running Backs to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Alvin Kamara (DK: $9.6k | FD: $9.1k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
I’ve been asked before when writing about Kamara why he wouldn’t be a “five star” play across the board and it all just has to do with his salary, production expectation and in part, his ownership projection. At $9k+ you need him to score about 27 fantasy points to return value, which he is obviously capable of. But if you went with him in week two (17.9 DK/14.9 FD points) you were probably disappointed. In weeks one and three, I’m sure you were more than satisfied though. This will be the final week before his production could take a bit of a hit with the return of Mark Ingram in week five. It’s as good a time as any to roll him out in lineups as there is plenty of value out there this week. Kamara saw an insane 20 targets and caught 15 of them last week, both NFL records for a running back. With those 20 targets in week three, he led the entire league, accounting for a 40.8% target share… that’s a rare feat for a running back. It’s obvious the Saints aren’t afraid to give him 25 or 30 touches, and traveling away from New Orleans where Brees can often struggle, expect another huge workload for the second year phenom who can do it all.
Saquon Barkley (DK: $8.1k | FD: $8k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
On the opposite side of the ball from Kamara is another talented young running back I’ll be looking to roll out in week four. Saquon is averaging 117.7 all purpose yards per game this season to go along with a couple scores. He’s 3rd in the NFL among running backs, receiving 25% of his team’s target share (trailing only Kamara and McCaffrey) and is a great bet to see double digit targets this week as the Giants will lean towards moving the ball through the air. Though, I’d still expect him to see around his season average of 15 carries on the ground. After facing Jacksonville, Dallas, and Houston this should be far and away the cushiest defensive match-up the Giants have seen, which should only lead to more opportunities for Saquon to break off a touchdown or two. I’d fire him up in all formats.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Giovanni Bernard (DK: $6.3k | FD: $6.4k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Target pass catching backs against Atlanta. This will be a theme I’ll be reiterating throughout the season. The Falcons allowed the most catches to running backs in 2017, and after surrendering 29 receptions to Kamara and McCaffrey in the last two weeks, they’re well on their way to repeating that stat again. It’s often by design that the Falcons funnel targets to running backs, so with a nimble player like Bernard with good hands set to see a full workload, he’ll be hard to avoid, particularly in cash this week. Atlanta is also allowing 5.3 yards per carry to running backs -- 3rd highest in the league. With Mixon missing his first full game last week, Bernard played on 88% of snaps and went for 12/61/1 on the ground and caught 5 of 9 targets for 25 yards. I like him to exceed those numbers against Atlanta and he should hold a solid floor at a reasonable price tag.
Carlos Hyde (DK: $5.5k | FD: $6.8k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Hyde is the NFL’s 8th leading rusher and 2nd in the NFL in rushing attempts with 61 carries, trailing only Todd Gurley (62). With the Baker Mayfield era underway, Hyde should begin to see defenses having to respect the pass quite a bit more than when Tyrod was under center. Expect this to open up wider running lanes as Hyde should still be in line for 15 to 20 total touches as I’m sure Cleveland won’t be leaning on Mayfield to try to do everything in his first start. Oakland is tied with Kansas City, allowing 5.5 yards per carry -- the highest average in the NFL. I wouldn’t expect much in the way of receptions from Hyde but he should receive all of the potential goal line work. And at his current DFS salaries, he can certainly do enough damage on the ground to return value.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Chris Carson (DK: $4.6k | FD: $6.4k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Carson led the NFL last week with 34 touches, accounting for a monstrous 50.75% usage rating. Don’t expect numbers nearly that high again this week but he could be a solid bet to see 20+ touches. And against a team like Arizona, those touches could return great value. The Cardinals have allowed a ridiculous 38.6 fantasy points per game to running backs, so if Carson really has taken over as the Seahawks lead back, then it would likely make one of the best values at the position. It is concerning how inefficient he was with all his carries last week, averaging 3.2 ypc and barely eclipsing 100 yards, but keep an eye on any news out of Seattle for what their game plan for their tailbacks might be this week.
Phillip Lindsay (DK: $4.5k | FD: $6.1k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
If you’re playing in a slate that includes the Monday Night Football game, Lindsay should be a guy you can target for cheap. Predicted game script against the high powered Chiefs offense should lend itself to Lindsay seeing more action than fellow running backs Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker -- largely due to his pass catching skills. Lindsay got ejected from last week’s game versus Baltimore for throwing a punch at the bottom of a scrum, so maybe he comes out with a little extra fire against Kansas City.
Wide Receivers to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
DeAndre Hopkins (DK: $8.4k | FD: $8.6k)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
The cash strategy for the wide receiver position for many this week will be to pay down, but for GPPs, it’s not a bad idea to pay up to catch some guys at lower ownership. Hopkins could be one of those guys as, previously noted, the Texans offense is struggling through their first three games to put many points up on the board. If you played NFL DFS last year however, you should know that Hopkins’ upside is in the vicinity of 40 points in any week. He’s 2nd in the NFL with 487 targeted air yards and the clock is ticking before he busts out for a 50+ yard touchdown or two. He’s a safe bet to see 10+ targets from Deshaun Watson each week and he saw five redzone targets in week three. Hopkins and fellow wide receiver Will Fuller should see all the looks they can handle as the Texans receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired behind those two.
Davante Adams (DK: $7.8k | FD: $8k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
First off, I just want to say that I wish there weren’t so many different spelling iterations of the name “Davante”. I have to double and triple check myself any time I mention Adams, Freeman or Booker. But anyway, Adams and the Packers get a home match-up with the Buffalo Bills and carry the 5th highest implied team total of the week with 27.5 points. Adams hasn’t eclipsed the 100 yard mark yet this season but he has caught a touchdown from Aaron Rodgers in each game. On defense, Buffalo is allowing the 3rd highest completion rate at 75%, which should bode well for Adams who will see around 10 targets in this one. He should have great shot at a touchdown and his first 100+ yard game of the season.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Sterling Shepard (DK: $4.9k | FD: $6.2k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
This mid salary range of wide receivers is where a lot of key decisions will be made. Shepard stands out to me as a near lock across the board. Opposing team’s WR2s have been teeing off on this Saints secondary:
Week 1: Desean Jackson, 5/146/2
Week 2: Antonio Callaway, 4/81/1
Week 3: Calvin Ridley, 7/146/3
OBJ could potentially be shadowed by cornerback Marshon Lattimore and much of the focus will be on stopping him. This leaves Shepard working primarily out of the slot, and since the Saints lost nickel cornerback Patrick Robinson, he could be seeing a ton of coverage from potential replacement P.J Williams who was responsible for coverage on Calvin Ridley’s two first half TDs last week. To further the appeal of Shepard, teammate Evan Engram is very likely to miss this game with an MCL sprain, so that’s about six or seven targets that will need to be dispersed elsewhere. All in all, the signs just point to Shepard being a no-brainer pick this week! So I’m sure he’ll catch two passes for 18 yards and call it a day (but seriously, come on Shep… you got this).
Tyler Boyd (DK: $4.6k | FD: $5.8k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Boyd represents another top value play in this range as his salary is still too low for the production he has put up in the past couple of weeks. Now he gets to face off against a Falcons defense that is very vulnerable across the middle of the field. Boyd is actually outpacing star teammate AJ Green in yards 249 to 219 on four fewer targets and one less reception. One concerning thing is that his seven targets last week only represented a target share of 15.2% of Andy Dalton’s 46 attempts. However, I still have a hard time seeing Boyd and the Bengals not exploiting this very leaky Falcons secondary and another six or seven targets should be all it’ll take for him to return value back at this price.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Antonio Callaway (DK: $4.3k | FD: $4.5k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Callaway should have had two long touchdowns in their Thursday Night Football clash with the Jets last week but Tyrod Taylor under threw him on one breakaway and flat out didn’t see him wide open on another. We should expect for missed connections like those to hopefully be more infrequent with Mayfield running the show. Callaway has also seen his snaps rise each week, going from 17% in week one, 81% in week two and 90% in week three, while his targets have risen each week as well, topping out at ten last week. I’d look for the rookie connection between Mayfield and Callaway to get off to a nice start this week and he doesn’t make for the worst cash option if you want to spend up in other spots. This guy has great speed and is a real threat to produce some big plays.
Christian Kirk (DK: $3.7k | FD: $5.4k)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Going from talking about one rookie quarterback & wide receiver connection to another, Kirk will look to build some chemistry with new Cardinals starting QB Josh Rosen this week at home versus Seattle. Kirk’s eight targets last week represented the 6th highest target share of all NFL players at 30.8% and he produced a respectable 7/90/0 stat line off of those eight looks. On Rosen’s seven pass attempts he made after entering in the fourth quarter, Kirk saw three of them come his way. It’s hard to trust any Cardinals player considering how mismanaged the coaches have made this offense look, but Kirk could be a sneaky volume guy to roll out in tournaments, particularly on DraftKings where his price tag is really low.
Tight Ends to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Rob Gronkowski (DK: $7k | FD: $8.1k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
After mentioning him in week one, I’ve skipped out on including Gronk as the high salary tight end in these newsletters the past two weeks. Thankfully so because he’s been a bust alongside Tom Brady and the Pats offense. It’s hard to imagine the Brady & Gronk connection getting shut down for a third week in a row, however. They return back home to Foxborough after their two week road trip to face off against the surprisingly undefeated divisional foe Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins defense hasn’t been allowing a ton of points, as their 17.3 points allowed per game represents the 6th best in the NFL but their pass defense is ranked as the 4th worst, allowing 288 yards per game through the air. The quarterbacks who put up those yards are Marcus Mariota, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Darnold and Derek Carr. I have a feeling this is a huge “get right” spot for Gronkowski and the rest of the Patriots. Take Gronk in some lines while the public perception of him is low.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Eric Ebron (DK: $3.6k | FD: $5.5k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
I’ll roll with mentioning Ebron here two weeks in a row. He was more or less “the chalk” last week with Jack Doyle out, and he didn’t exactly smash value but he still saw 11 targets including four inside the redzone. Assuming Doyle misses another week, Ebron should be fine to deploy again as a cheaper option because Andrew Luck is simply not going to be throwing much down the field for the foreseeable future. Ebron’s routes often fall into Luck’s current comfort zone.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Austin Hooper (DK: $2.9k | FD: $5k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★☆☆☆
There’s very little upside with Hooper but hey, he plays on 85% of snaps on an offense that should move the ball well most weeks, including this one. He’ll see his four to six targets and he’s tied with Ridley and Sanu for the team lead of three redzone looks this year. Nothing to make you all that excited, but he’s a decent bet to haul in a touchdown this week along with a few catches and that’s essentially all ya need for him to return value.
Defensive Breakdown
Chicago Bears DST (DK: $2.6k | FD: $4.3k)
I would fully expect the Bears to be the highest owned defense this week as they prepare to shut down the Fitzmagic hype train at home. The Bucs have been protecting Fitz pretty well, allowing only five sacks in three games, but this Bears front will be by far their toughest test yet. Factor in that he threw three picks against the Steelers, and it’s reasonable to assume that Chicago can come up with multiple takeaways here.
Los Angeles Chargers (DK: $3.9k | FD: $4.4k)
The Chargers will get to face off with CJ Beathard and the struggling 49ers this week. San Francisco allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to be the second most sacked QB in the NFL through the first three weeks, as defenses got to him 13 times behind the line of scrimmage. Also, in five starts for Beathard last year, the 49ers scored 13 or fewer points in four of them. The Chargers defense has plenty of upside going for themselves this week and likely won’t have as much ownership on them as they should.
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