Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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Last week was a wild one, filled with upsets and victorious road warriors. There is still a long way to go but there seems to be quite a bit of parity across the league this season. Everyone is still playing catch-up to the likes of the Patriots and Chiefs, but hell, they both looked very beatable last Sunday. I can’t wait to see what this week has in store for us!

The Dolphins and Lions make up our only teams on bye for week five. That means no easy “flowchart plays” versus Miami this week guys! Rats! Looking toward Sunday’s 12 game main slate, the NFL has, for whatever reason, scheduled ten 1:00 pm ET games, leaving only two games in the 4:00 window. Not sure what that’s all about but that’s some certified poor scheduling. Way to go Roger! Here is a look at all of the match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans (-5) | 48.5 O/U

ATL: 21.8 implied points | HOU: 26.8 implied points

Both of these offenses are in need of a quick bounce back after scoring 10 points apiece last week. The guys in Vegas certainly see that as a likelihood after pinning a 48.5 point total on this game, which is currently the highest mark on the main slate. Atlanta ranks 8th in the NFL in offensive tempo while Houston ranks 23rd -- so this is a pace up spot for a Texans offense that has the potential to score 30+ points against most any opponent. This should be a plus match-up as well for Julio & Co. considering Houston has allowed 43.3 DKFP per game to opposing WRs (7th most). Typically I downgrade Atlanta’s offense on the road but Matt Ryan has thrown for exactly 304 yards in both of his road games (@ MIN, @ IND). The fact that this game is in a dome has to boost this game’s offensive upside as well. There’s plenty of fantasy goodness to be had here.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3) | 47.5 O/U

ARI: 22 implied points | CIN: 25.5 implied points

Arizona makes another appearance in this section! As you’re probably aware by now, Kliff Kingsbury runs this Cardinals offense at an extremely fast pace. They have led the NFL in fewest seconds per play ran since the beginning of the season and will face a Bengals team that ranks 7th in offensive tempo. With Christian Kirk (ARI, unlikely to play Sunday) and John Ross (CIN, placed on IR) being two key pieces missing on each of these offenses, we’ll have some intriguing value plays to put on our radar -- some of which will be mentioned below. You may not have the sexiest names featured on either team but I would not be surprised to see a final score resembling something along the lines of 31-27. The Cardinals trail only the Dolphins in fantasy points allowed per game and Cincinnati isn’t elite either, ranking 13th in total FPPG allowed. If you watched Monday Night Football this past week, first off, I’m sorry. Secondly, you probably saw how awful Cincy is against opposing running backs. Their 39.64 DKFP allowed per game to RBs is the second highest in the NFL. Could be a prime opportunity to deploy David Johnson.

Quarterbacks to Target

Jameis Winston | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.6k | @ NO

Greg Landry had an informative write-up on Winston in this week’s LineStar NFL Takeaways (linked at the top of this page). As Greg said, you certainly have to limit your Winston exposure to GPPs… for now. Something is really clicking in this offense the last two weeks and Bruce Arians seems to be making all of his praise on Winston in the off-season appear to be deserving. You can sort of put some sensible reasoning behind Tampa Bay’s offensive struggles in their first two weeks. In week one, against San Francisco, the Bucs faced a somewhat underrated secondary and were playing their first significant live action NFL game under Arians’ new system. Mike Evans was also dealing with a hampering illness (clearly, he’s over it) which directly impacted the entire offense. In week two, Tampa Bay played on a short week on the road in Carolina for a Thursday Night Football game which featured very sloppy weather conditions. Facing New Orleans in the Superdome is not an easy task but the Saints are allowing 26.2 DKFP per game -- third most in the league. They’re also allowing a 66% completion rate. Given Winston’s deadly duo of receivers, he’s one of my favorite GPP quarterback plays this week.

Matt Ryan | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.7k | @ HOU

I’d consider Philip Rivers a pretty comparable veteran quarterback to Matt Ryan at this stage of their respective careers. That said, I would expect a similar performance from Ryan this week to what Rivers had against Houston in week three (31-46 passing, 318 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT). Yet, with Ryan’s better overall downfield and redzone weapons, his ceiling sits a bit higher. The Texans allow a 70.5% completion rate (7th highest) and, as five point underdogs and a subpar running game, I’d expect Atlanta to be in pass first mode all game. Even if they get a lead in this game, the Falcons have passed the ball on a league leading 72.37% of plays this season. That should give Ryan one of the best floors at the position and he comes with reasonable price tags, especially on DraftKings.

Kirk Cousins | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.8k | @ NYG

Cousins has one more opportunity to prove that he isn’t completely and utterly mediocre (or just straight up bad). The Giants’ defensive season-long numbers got a boost last week when Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins Jr. barely combined for four fantasy points… yes, four. But their 23 FPPG allowed to QBs still ranks as the sixth highest mark in the league. Prior to last week, the Giants had allowed 29.4 FPPG to quarterbacks and 346 passing YPG. When you have an incredible receiving duo like Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, you simply can’t continue to suck as badly as Cousins has. He is clearly a GPP-only play whose price is really a main draw. If he’s going to break out at any point this season, it should be against this terrible New York secondary.

Running Backs to Target

Dalvin Cook | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.2k | @ NYG

I know I just mentioned Kirk Cousins but everyone is aware that Dalvin Cook is really the main cog of this offense that you want in your lineups most weeks. On paper, the Giants' run defense may seem decent, as they allow only 20.8 FPPG to RBs and 3.9 YPC (10th lowest) but you have to consider the quality of backs they have faced. They saw Zeke Elliot in week one (who was on a limited workload) and after that it was a combination of Frank Gore/Devin Singletary, Peyton Barber/Ronald Jones, and Adrian Peterson/Chris Thompson. Cook has found the end zone in every game this season and ranks 5th in the NFL with 151 total yards created while forcing 21 missed tackles (ranks 9th). I do expect Cousins to likely have his best game of the season so I don’t think New York can just stack the box all day in an attempt to stop Cook. With a strong 25 implied point total for the Vikings as 5.5 point favorites, Cook and the running game should fare very well this week.

David Johnson | DK: $7.5k, FD: $6.8k | @ CIN

I alluded to him earlier but, to reiterate again, this is a completely smash spot for DJ. Cincinnati is playing on a short week and just got gashed by James Conner and Jaylen Samuels, bumping their DraftKings FPPG allowed to RBs up to 39.64. The Bengals have also allowed a league high 37 receptions to RBs resulting in 326 yards and three TDs. On top of that, David Johnson has seen 20 (!) targets in the last two weeks and the Cardinals will likely be without WR Christian Kirk (9.3 tgt/gm). We might get a “2016 David Johnson” type performance here!

Austin Ekeler & Melvin Gordon III | DK: $6.7k, $7k, FD: $7.2k, $6.8k | vs. DEN

I’m adding both guys here because I believe they’re equally intriguing in tournaments -- particularly Ekeler. I think we see Gordon’s opportunities capped off around 12-15 total touches while Ekeler may hover in that 15-20 range with a heavier role in between the 20s and in the passing game. We all saw Leonard Fournette gut this Denver run defense for 225 yards on 29 carries (7.75 YPC) last week, didn’t we? That Broncos' run defense should be weakened even further with the loss of LB Bradley Chubb (torn ACL). Ekeler and Gordon can both carve out a productive fantasy day even without a full workload. Very little ownership will fall in their direction as well.

Devonta Freeman | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.2k | @ HOU

Running backs have caught 34 passes on 38 targets against the Texans (second most behind Cincy) for 251 yards and are producing 26.3 DraftKings FPPG (10th most). Freeman snagged 20 total touches last week, including eight receptions on nine targets while Ito Smith vultured the lone rushing touchdown. Atlanta’s run game is nearly nonexistent but Freeman’s touch count has increased every week this season. He remains cheap enough to draw some interest from me, especially on a full PPR site like DraftKings. Surely touchdown variance will fall on his side eventually…

Wide Receivers to Target

Julio Jones | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | @ HOU

With as much attention as I’m giving Atlanta this week, I really hope they outdo that 21.8 implied point total! Julio should line up on the left side of the field for the majority of his routes, so he’ll see plenty of coverage from rookie Lonnie Johnson Jr. who covers that side of the field 72% of the time. Houston gives up a ton of fantasy production to that side of the field (4th most fantasy points) and the 7th most FPPG to WRs overall. After a disappointing outing against Tennessee, expect a rapid bounce back game from Julio at potentially low ownership.

Tyler Boyd | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.7k | vs. ARI

With John Ross sidelined for an extended period of time, the Bengals will be looking to fill the void that Ross and his eight targets per game and 20% target share will leave behind. Auden Tate (DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.3k) is a primary candidate to see an expanded role, and is certainly a viable value play this Sunday. But I’ll gladly throw Boyd in the mix as a core play for me now that the Bengals are getting a chance to face the softest defense they’ve encountered thus far in the season. Boyd should be a near lock for 10+ targets and will see most of his routes ran out of the slot against CB Tramaine Brock, which represents a positive WR/CB match-up. I hate putting any sort of trust in Andy Dalton, but behind a terrible offensive line, I’d imagine he’ll need to get the ball out of his hands quickly. That would further pad Boyd’s stat line, as he should be running quick outs, slants, drags, and other crossing routes to help move the chains.

Alshon Jeffery | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.7k | vs. NYJ

Darryl Roberts is an excellent cornerback… to attack with opposing wide receivers. The Jets have allowed the second most DraftKings FPPG to WRs (47.43) and have been getting torn up on the perimeter. Alshon should see a majority of his routes against Darryl Roberts and he remains a key redzone weapon for Wentz. Philly has a 28.8 implied total (trails only New England on this slate) so you know they should be moving the ball all over the field. I like the Jeffery play regardless, but I’ll like it even more if DeSean Jackson ends up missing one more week.

Diontae Johnson | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5k | vs. BAL

In Mason Rudolph’s two starts, rookie Diontae Johnson has seen 12 targets come his way, catching nine of them for 129 yards and two touchdowns. After Ben Roethlisberger went down and Rudolph took the reigns (heheh), all the buzz was on him and WR James Washington rekindling their college connection from their days at Oklahoma State. That has yet to come to fruition, as Washington has caught just two of five targets for 14 yards in the last two weeks. Baltimore may seem like a scary match-up but they’ve ultimately given up 41.35 FPPG to WRs (10th most). Their main focus will be on containing JuJu Smith-Schuster so don’t be shocked if Johnson puts up another strong outing while seeing another 6-8 targets.

Tight Ends to Target

Evan Engram | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.3k | vs. MIN

Minnesota has faced a pair of skilled tight ends who are heavily targeted by their quarterback (Austin Hooper in week one, Darren Waller in week three). Those two guys combined for 22 catches on 23 targets for 211 yards! Engram disappointed plenty of people who chose to invest in him heavily last week. However, the Giants pass game wasn’t ever really pressed into action for much of the game in a dominant 24-3 win over a terrible Washington team. I would be fine going back to Engram this week, as the game script should call for a more aggressive passing attack. Golden Tate’s return could steal a couple looks away from the freakish tight end but 8-10 targets is still a reasonable expectation.

Mark Andrews | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.1k | @ PIT

Andrews has seen at least seven targets each week with a touchdown in three of four games. He is still dealing with a foot injury but Baltimore seems to be managing it cautiously during the week and he currently isn’t in any danger of missing this Sunday’s game. He is the go-to target for Lamar Jackson down in the redzone and stands out as a slightly underpriced option on both main sites this week.

Tyler Eifert | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. ARI

Here’s the flowchart play of the week. Is Arizona playing? If yes, does their opponent have a tight end with a pulse and mostly functional legs? If yes, play that tight end. This is the least confident I’ve been in the flowchart up to this point but, I mean, just look at the fantasy performances tight ends have had against Arizona:

Week 1: TJ Hockenson: 9 targets, 6 catches, 131 yards, 1 TD, 28.1 DKFP

Week 2: Mark Andrews: 9 targets, 8 catches, 112 yards, 1 TD, 28.2 DKFP

Week 3: Greg Olsen: 7 targets, 6 catches, 75 yards, 2 TDs, 25.5 DKFP

Week 4: Will Dissly: 8 targets, 7 catches, 57 yards, 1 TD, 18.7 DKFP

He’ll be chalky, but Eifert should definitely be in play this week, especially with the absence of John Ross.

Defensive Breakdown

Buffalo Bills | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.3k | @ TEN

If you can’t afford to pay the premium for defenses like New England or Chicago, I don’t mind dropping down to a DST like Buffalo. They haven’t allowed more than 17 points to any team this year which, of course, includes facing the Patriots last week. They’re reeling in a solid amount of sacks and turnovers and Marcus Mariota already has a pair of three INT games this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK: $2.2k, FD: $3.5k | @ NO

As sort of an ‘off the wall’ cheap DST play, you can’t really argue against the sort of production the Bucs have had. They’ve shown up with a solid fantasy total in each week with 15, 8, 9, and 12 fantasy points. They’re more opportunistic than they are skilled, but as long as that produces fantasy points, who am I to judge? If Drew Brees was under center, my feelings toward this defensive unit would obviously be different, but I’ll still look to take a stab at a Teddy Bridgewater-led offense.

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