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- Top NFL Plays Week #5 | Records Were Made to Be Broken
Top NFL Plays Week #5 | Records Were Made to Be Broken
Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS
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Welcome back to the NFL week five edition of the LineStar Weekly Pylon! We’re coming off a pretty high scoring week where cash lines were super elevated due to many of the chalky plays exceeding value with ease. My initial feeling this week is that cash lines should come back down to earth a bit without as many clear cut value options being in smash spots. We also have several players returning to their team’s lineups after serving four game suspensions. Most notably of those returning are Saints RB Mark Ingram, Patriots WR Julian Edelman, Ravens CB Jimmy Smith, Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict, and Cowboys DT David Irving. All of these guys should have a considerable immediate impact on their respective teams.
The NFL has seen a record setting 228 passing touchdowns through the first four weeks of the season, smashing the old record of 203 passing touchdowns in 2013. Out of 15 NFL games this week, we have six match-ups with point totals exceeding 50 points, so we could see some shootouts on our hands once again, and my prediction of lower cash lines may prove to be inaccurate. So let’s get into a couple game breakdowns and some top players to target to set up for a profitable week!
Games to Target
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 57.5 O/U
ATL: 27.25 implied points | PIT: 30.25 implied points
This 57.5 point total represents the highest thus far this season and has all the makings of a shootout. On the Falcons side, head coach Dan Quinn is expecting to have Devonta Freeman back in the lineup, so that will further murky the waters if you’re looking to target one of the Atlanta backs. It’s likely a “steer clear” spot for me, at least in cash games. Ito Smith received a lot of work, particularly in the redzone, while Freeman has been out and Coleman was utilized less than what many expected, so who really knows how things will shake out with all three backs in the mix. The Falcons passing attack is clearly the most enticing part of this offense to consider for DFS purposes and Matt Ryan really has a “pick your poison” trio of options with Julio, Ridley and Sanu all coming off of productive weeks. The Steelers secondary is extremely beatable, especially over the top… more on that further down.
The Steelers offense will look to bounce back after a very shaky performance against a solid Ravens defense last week. This Atlanta defense is about as tasty of a match-up one could hope for when looking to have a “get right” week. Pittsburgh is sitting at 1-2-1 and really needs to get a victory in the books, especially at home where you absolutely have to win games in the NFL. I noted last week how vulnerable the ATL defense is at each level and nothing has changed since then. Every primary Steeler offensive weapon should be in play to some degree in this one.
Oakland Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers | 53.5 O/U
OAK: 24.5 implied points | LAC: 29.5 implied points
Here we have the second highest game total of the entire week. The Raiders have some really intriguing options for GPPs, particularly in the passing game. Carr is coming off a 437 yard, 4 TD performance on 58 attempts against the Browns. You’re probably aware that game was a wild one that went into overtime, but it marked the third time Carr threw for 300+ yards this season and he fell just 12 yards short of that 300 yard mark in their week two game at Denver. With the Raiders again looking to play “catch-up” I’d expect a ton of passing once again from this offense. Jordy Nelson has had back to back solid outings and could find himself in cash game consideration. Cooper, Bryant and Cook should be considered boom/bust tournament plays but they all have reasonable DFS salaries -- I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of those guys in the Milly Maker winning lineup.
I’m not sure how much more solid of a play you could find outside of Melvin Gordon this week. Oakland is getting gashed on the ground at a clip of 5.6 yards per carry and Gordon saw double digit targets for the second time of the season last week. Rivers and his pass catchers have been a bit more difficult to predict and should probably be reserved to tournaments, but with the Chargers predicted to score nearly 30 points, someone is likely to pop off out of the three primary WRs… and Gates is still finding himself wide open in the endzone for some reason.
Quarterbacks to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Cam Newton (DK: $6.4k | FD: $8.4k) vs. NYG
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Newton and the Panthers are coming off of their week four bye and should be fresh and ready to roll against the Giants. Despite his lack of pass catchers, Newton is a threat to score 30+ fantasy points nearly every week due to his rushing ability, now averaging 45.3 yds/gm to go along with his three scores on the ground. The Giants are actually the 10th best pass defense in the NFL, only allowing 229 yds/gm through the air, but I wouldn’t be overly concerned about that with Newton. The Panthers have an implied team total of 25.75 points and I feel Newton being responsible for at least three touchdowns to be his floor.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Deshaun Watson (DK: $6.2k | FD: $7.6k) vs. DAL
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Sticking with the dual-threat quarterback for three weeks in a row, Watson has accounted for 310+ passing yards, multiple passing touchdowns and 36+ yards rushing. He returns home to face a pretty talented Dallas defense on Sunday Night Football. The Cowboys pass defense is allowing just 209 yards per game through the air, but with Lamar Miller banged up, the Texans might need Watson to do it all this week. With an implied team total of 24.25 points, Vegas isn’t expecting this Texans offense to exactly get shut down. Keep an eye on Will Fuller’s status as well since he is Watson’s primary weapon alongside Nuk Hopkins.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Blake Bortles (DK: $5.5k | FD: $7k) @ KC
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Oh man… is it Blake Bortles “chalk” week? Everyone who has been paying attention to the NFL this season is well versed in the struggles of this Kansas City secondary and Bortles has thrown for nearly 400 yards twice this season against much better pass defenses in the New York Jets and New England Patriots. He’s also shown a low floor in week three when he was a somewhat popular pick against Tennessee in a game that ended 6 to 9. Regardless, Fournette has already been ruled out and the Jags should lean pass heavy once again. They’re three point underdogs on the road with an implied team total of 23 points. I think Bortles can get you around 300 yards passing and a couple scores to go along with 30 or so yards on the ground. It’s a bit risky but he should be viable in all formats.
Running Backs to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Melvin Gordon (DK: $8.6k | FD: $8.7k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
As noted above in one of the games to target, Oakland is surrendering a lot of production on the ground, and while Gordon is maxing out at 15 carries (three times this season), he’s getting targeted 8.5 times for 6 receptions a week. He is a primary pass catching weapon with 9 targets in the redzone, trailing only Alvin Kamara in that category at the running back position. Fellow backfield teammate Austin Ekeler is seeing about 11 touches per game but many are predicting that to regress somewhat as the Chargers look to lean on Gordon the further into the season we get. Regardless of what Ekeler does, Gordon should see about 20 touches and he can do a lot of damage against the Raiders with that sort of volume.
Christian McCaffrey (DK: $8k | FD: $8.1k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
CMC has about a solid of a role cemented as any running back in the league. He’s playing on 93% of snaps and has shown an incredible floor, all without scoring a touchdown yet. Sooner rather than later he will find paydirt and this could very well be the week. In week three when he only saw two targets, he still got things done on the ground, to say the least, racking up 184 yards on 28 carries (6.6 ypc) . I definitely don’t expect that sort of uneven split between rush attempts and targets to be the norm but it was encouraging to see that he isn’t simply a one dimensional back. Look for McCaffrey to enter this week on fresh legs coming off the bye against the Giants 4th worst rush defense.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
David Johnson (DK: $6.3k | FD: $7.6k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
DJ finally saw an appropriate amount of touches last week. On 56 offensive snaps played, he received 25 touches which amounts to a 44.6% market share (touches divided by snaps played) -- a mark that led all NFL players in week four. This Cardinals offense is still limited by poor play calling and just four targets is still not enough for him, but if David Johnson is going to see this sort of volume moving forward, he is too talented to not produce in some capacity and is still capable of monster games. This 49ers defense surrendered 47.5 PPR points to Chargers RBs Gordon and Ekeler last week, so they certainly can be vulnerable defending pass catching running backs. Josh Rosen starting at quarterback will only help open things up for this offense though. With just 18.25 implied points, don’t expect any sort of onslaught performance.
TJ Yeldon (DK: $5.6k | FD: $6.5k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Kansas City is not just a juicy match-up for opposing quarterbacks -- they bleed production to the running back position en masse. They allow 105.3 yards rushing and 96.3 yards receiving to running backs per game. With Fournette already out, likely for multiple weeks, expect Yeldon to once again take on the lion’s share of the workload out of the backfield, while teammate Corey Grant makes for an intriguing GPP punt play as someone who can break a long touchdown in any given opportunity with his 4.3 speed.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Aaron Jones (DK: $4.3k | FD: $6.1k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
When it comes to DFS, one thing we have learned so far this year is to attack Detroit with opposing running backs. The Packers backfield situation is somewhat muddled but many would agree that Jones is the better runner over Jamaal Williams. He led the Green Bay running back trio by playing on 38% of offensive snaps and should begin to emerge more and more as the early down leader to carry the ball. Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison, and Randall Cobb are all popping up on the injury report this week with various ailments. We could see the normally pass happy Packers look to salt things away on the ground this week as one point road favorites with an implied team total of 26 points.
Javorius “Buck” Allen (DK: $4.7k | FD: $5.4k)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Alex Collins had another goal line fumble last week and was benched by Coach Harbaugh for the remainder of the first half against the Steelers. Buck Allen is the preferred receiving back and was already stealing a ton of redzone work from Collins and that fumble might further cement his role when the Ravens get deep into enemy territory. On the year, Allen is also out-snapping Collins 144 to 140. I personally believe Collins is clearly the more talented back, but we’re looking to chase opportunity when it comes to DFS and Allen could very well find the endzone for the fifth time this season as the Ravens take on the Browns on the road as three point favorites with an implied team total of 25 points.
Wide Receivers to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Julio Jones (DK: $8.5k | FD: $8.8k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
While everyone is up in arms about Julio’s lack of touchdowns, he is still leading the NFL by a sizable margin with 713 targeted air yards. His 15.5 yard aDOT (average depth of target) leads all Falcons receivers and we’ve seen this Steelers defense get burned for deep touchdowns by guys like Desean Jackson, Tyreek Hill and John Brown. Can we FINALLY see Julio hit paydirt this week? The targets will undoubtedly be there as Julio is seeing 32% of his teams target -- second among all wide receivers. Eventually something has to give.
Adam Thielen (DK: $7.7k | FD: $8.3k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Thielen is leading the league in targets with 56 (14 targets/gm) and has 100+ yards in every game. With Dalvin Cook apparently not 100%, expect the Vikings to continue their pass-first approach. The Eagles are a middle of the road pass defense so far this year, allowing 272 yards a game (14th most) and are vulnerable out of the slot, where Thielen gets plenty of his work done. His 29% target share is 5th in the NFL and with a relatively low aDOT of 9.5 yards, many of his targets are high percentage throws. If he finds the endzone this week he should easily clear value but he can likely do it without scoring, based on volume alone.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Golden Tate (DK: $6.7k | FD: $7.4k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Tate is the #4 WR in PPR formats (#6 in half-PPR) and yet he is the 16th most expensive option at the position on DraftKings and the 15th most expensive on FanDuel this week. He is seeing an average of 11 targets per game, and in a match-up with Green Bay, you would safely assume that Matthew Stafford will throw it around 40 times. Golden Tate’s 26% target share makes him a safe DFS asset for this week once again and he showed his upside a week prior catching all eight of his targets for 132 yards and two scores.
Cooper Kupp (DK: $6.3k | FD: $6.7k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Do not expect Kupp to fly under the radar after his massive 9/162/2 performance last week but he still makes for a nice floor play with obvious upside. Kupp is third among NFL wide receivers with 10 redzone targets, so the Rams clearly scheme to get him the ball when they’re in scoring position. The Rams run, almost exclusively, three wide receiver sets (97%) so Kupp is rarely off the field. He is a super versatile guy out of the slot and until defenses start accounting for his play making ability, he should continue to thrive in one of the best offenses in the league.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Taywan Taylor (DK: $4k | FD: $5k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Taylor is the obvious beneficiary after Rishard Matthews departed from the team. Even though he was in on just 63% of snaps in week four, Taylor still saw 9 targets, catching 7 of them for 77 yards. Corey Davis is the clear target hog in this offense but he will have a tough match-up with Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White, thus opening up more opportunities for Taylor who does possess 4.3 speed. I’d expect his snap count to continue to rise as the Titans look to find more playmakers to distribute the ball to aside from Corey Davis.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DK: $3.3k | FD: $4.8k)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
As previously noted in Aaron Jones’ section, the Packers wide receiver core is banged up quite a bit. With Cobb out last week, Valdes-Scantling drew the start and was in on 71% of the offensive snaps. He only saw 3 targets, catching one for 38 yards. But with Davanta Adams and Geronimo Allison finding themselves on the injury report alongside Randall Cobb, Valdes-Scantling could find himself seeing 8+ targets from Aaron Rodgers. Definitely monitor the Packers injuries closely because this guy is a big target at 6’3” and could be a great play at a dirt cheap price tag. Luckily, Green Bay plays in the 1:00 ET set of games, so we should know the situation well before kick-off.
Tight Ends to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Zach Ertz (DK: $6.5k | FD: $7.5k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Ertz has seen double digit targets every week this year but he just hasn’t cracked the endzone yet. He’s still producing as the safety net of this Eagles passing offense and is tied with Travis Kelce with a 28% target share of their team's passes. The Vikings defense is a bit tough to analyze right now but the Rams certainly provided some valuable game film last week on how they can be beat. As Wentz continues to get more familiarized with actual game speed, you should expect Ertz and company to benefit as the season progresses.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Vance McDonald (DK: $3.7k | FD: $4.6k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
In a high total match-up between the Steelers and Falcons projected to turn in to a shootout, McDonald represents a cheap way to get a piece of that game. McDonald seems to have taken over as the lead tight end in the Steelers offense after seeing his snap count percentage rise each week from 0%, 45%, 48% to 63% last week. Everyone and their mother saw the disrespectful stiff-arm he laid on Tampa Bay’s Chris Conte in week three on his way to a 75 yard touchdown. AB and JuJu will get their volume but McDonald should be a recipient of 5 to 7 targets in this one, and a decent cash play.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Nick Vannett (DK: $2.5k | FD: $4.3k)
Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
As a complete punt at the position, Vannett should play nearly 100% of the snaps for Seattle as the only tight end on the current 53-man roster after teammate Will Dissly went down to injury last week and is set to miss some time. He has 14 targets through four games, catching 9 of them for a meager 67 yards. But while the Rams have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end, they are giving up an average of 6.3 catches for 82 yards to the position. Yes, much of that came in week one to Jared Cook, but there’s potential for volume to be there for Vannett at about as cheap of a price tag as you could get.
Defensive Breakdown
Carolina Panthers (DK: $3.3k | FD: $4.4k) vs. NYG
No Bears D/ST to plug-and-play in our lineups this week but the Panthers look to make a nice floor play, coming off of a bye week at home against the Giants. They have scored 10 and 12 fantasy points in both of their home games so far this year, so we should expect some similar production this week.
Baltimore Ravens (DK: $2.8k | FD: $4.2k) @ CLE
Jimmy Smith returning to the Baltimore secondary cannot be understated enough. What was already a pretty stout unit to begin with, now gets back their top cornerback. They’re allowing a 3rd best 16.3 points a game coming into this week and will now look to take advantage of aggressive rookie Baker Mayfield, who threw two interceptions against Oakland last week.
Weekly NFL Freeroll
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