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- Top NFL Plays Week #6 | Close Clashes Command Consideration
Top NFL Plays Week #6 | Close Clashes Command Consideration
Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS
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Hello once again and welcome back to our week six edition of the LineStar Weekly Pylon! Week five brought things back down to earth a bit from the week prior in terms of DFS scoring, but I guess that’s largely due to folks not taking much stake in some top scoring plays like Isaiah Crowell, CJ Beathard, Robby Anderson, and Kenyan Drake… which is reasonable. This week we have some games that should present some very high scoring environments, particularly in the cities of Atlanta, Cincinnati and Foxborough. Out of 15 games, 11 will feature spreads under four points, so it seems that we should be expecting some hard fought match-ups that go down to the wire in the week ahead. I would bet that we will see a surprise shootout or two in one of these tight point spread games, so make sure you don’t totally lock in on the handful of high over/under match-ups! Not to waste any more time, let’s get into a couple games to target and some top plays I believe are worth a strong look for lineups this week!
Games to Target
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) | 53 O/U
PIT: 25.25 implied points | CIN: 27.75 implied points
I will forego detailing the very obvious main slate game stack of Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (57.5 O/U) as I’ll hit on several plays in that game below. Instead we can look at this PIT/CIN game, which should feature less popular plays to a certain degree when compared to the Bucs and Falcons. Most casual NFL DFS players are well-versed on the “Roethlisberger isn’t good on the road” narrative, so we can expect more ownership to go towards Conner on the Pittsburgh side, which is definitely fair from a game theory perspective. Though, if you look around at all these season long rankings that guys put out each week, many have Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster as top 12 receiver plays and yet push Roethlisberger outside of the top 10 quarterbacks. Cincinnati is still in the bottom half of the league in both pass defense (277 yds/gm) and allowed completion percentage (65.5%) so taking the Steelers passing attack in some spots could be a nice move in tournaments.
Cincinnati got tailback Joe Mixon back from his knee injury last week and instead of easing him back in, they gave him 25 touches on 58 offensive snaps for the Bengals -- a market share of 43.1% which tied with James Conner for 2nd in the NFL for week five. With Bernard out of the picture for at least another week, expect similar volume against a middle-of-the-road Steelers rushing defense. I expect Dalton and his primary pass catchers to be pretty popular as well, as they should be. Pittsburgh isn’t exactly stopping anyone through the air, allowing just under 300 yds/gm passing and tied with Tampa Bay for a league worst 13 passing touchdowns allowed. All of the healthy primary offensive contributors of this offense deserve a serious look.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ Oakland Raiders | 48 O/U
SEA: 25.5 implied points | OAK: 22.5 implied points
As a less obvious game stack, you could consider this Seattle/Oakland match-up that profiles as the fifth highest projected scoring game this week (fourth highest on the main slate) and a close three point spread for the road team. Seattle is dead last in the NFL, throwing the ball on just 43% of plays this season. So if you put any exposure on Russell Wilson and this passing attack, you’ll certainly be on the contrarian side of things. I do believe Doug Baldwin is mostly as healthy as he’s going to be this year and is fully capable of a big game. Prior to his forgettable solo target week five, in week four he was 4th in the NFL, seeing 51.8% of his team’s air yards on his seven targets. If Seattle happens to start airing it out more and Baldwin sees 10+ looks, that could be a GPP winner right there. For now, I’ll primarily target Chris Carson and the run game in this offense, as Oakland is about as lousy as it gets against the run (4.9 ypc allowed).
For Oakland, you have the “Marshawn Lynch playing against his former team” narrative and Seattle is the 4th worst rush defense in the league (129 yds/gm) as they are getting gashed for 4.7 ypc -- 7th worst in the NFL. The aforementioned narrative doesn’t necessarily mean Lynch will see an uptick in touches but perhaps he’ll have that extra Beast Mode motivation when he does get the ball. Derek Carr is averaging 40.4 pass attempts per game as well and is looking at being a home underdog once again. If you roster him, figuring out who to stack with him between Nelson, Cooper, Bryant and Cook could mostly just be a wild guess. Cook leads the team with a 21% target share while the three wide receivers all fall between a 12-15% target share.
Quarterbacks to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Tom Brady (DK: $6.6k | FD: $8.8k) vs. KC
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
None of the quarterbacks priced up for the main slate jump out at me as being worth paying up for (outside of the great spot Matt Ryan will be in) so at the top, I’ll go with Brady in his Sunday Night Football match-up with Mahomes and the Chiefs. If you’re playing the Thursday thru Monday slate, this is one of the few times I’ll advocate spending up a bit for a quarterback (particularly for cash games). Brady’s floor for the week seems like it should be about 330 yards and 3 TDs. He’s coming off of a long week after not playing since last Thursday and when you give Belichick & Company extra time to dissect an already paltry defense like the Chiefs, you should expect big things. The fact that the Chiefs can keep up with the Patriots is all the more reason for Brady to keep his foot on the gas all game long. Another week with Josh Gordon getting acclimated to the offense and Julian Edelman getting his second week of game action in just adds to the appeal. I don’t think there’s any need for me to go into numbers or stats for this not-so-bold recommendation.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Jameis Winston (DK: $5.8k | FD: $7.4k) @ ATL
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
I’m expecting things to get crabby with Winston set to be perhaps the top owned quarterback in main slate cash games and for now, that’s the direction I’m personally leaning towards with a fair amount of confidence. Most people are well aware of Atlanta’s decimated defense which is allowing an average of 32.6 points and just under 400 total yards per game. Winston will, of course, get the start this week and with his own team’s defensive struggles along with their non-existent run game, expect Tampa Bay to be passing a ton in this one. My only concern would be if Winston somehow struggles badly enough, would they shuffle back to Fitzpatrick? It’s highly doubtful but there is some small amount of risk there. Regardless, Winston is fully healthy, coming off of a bye, and has thrown for 10 combined touchdowns in his last three games against Atlanta. The risk with taking him in lineups seems minimal.
💲 Low Salary 💲
CJ Beathard (DK: $5.2k | FD: $6.3k) @ GB
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
If you just want to punt at quarterback in the Monday Night Football inclusive tournaments, Beathard has returned some solid value in his two starts thus far. Green Bay’s pass defense has been pretty stout, ranking 2nd in the league allowing just 209 yards per game but they’ve also played quarterbacks like Mitchell Trubisky, Alex Smith and Josh Allen. This is not to say Beathard is a huge step above those guys, but with Matt Breida banged up and the fact that the 49ers are 9.5 point underdogs, you would obviously expect a ton of passing. Beathard has attempted 54 and 37 pass attempts the past two weeks and will almost certainly reach some volume of throws in that range on Monday night.
Running Backs to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Todd Gurley (DK: $10k | FD: $9.5k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Not a lot of risk in this pick, huh? Gurley hits a five figure salary on DraftKings but it’s justified by his 25 point floor so far this season. The Broncos have been awful against the run, allowing the 3rd most rushing yards a game at 139.6 yards and 5.2 yards per carry. They just let Isaiah Crowell scorch them for 219 yards on 15 carries for Pete’s sake! Rams have two of their top receivers in Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp questionable this week as they make their way through concussion protocol. Gurley’s targets out of the backfield would almost certainly rise if either of them sit. Kupp has also been a major weapon deep into enemy territory, ranking 4th in the entire NFL with 12 redzone targets. So Gurley could see an uptick in his already high redzone usage if Kupp, in particular, is out. The Rams are projected for just under 30 points and we all know Gurley’s fantasy point ceiling can reach into the 40’s and 50’s. The stars may all align for one of those monster performances from him this week and I’m having a hard time not forcing him into my cash line for the time being.
James Conner (DK: $7.7k | FD: $8.2k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
If you’re unable to get up to Todd Gurley, then James Conner clearly makes for a reasonable secondary stud option at a lower price point. Conner is seeing 84% of snaps in this offense and nearly every touch from the tailback position is going his way. The Bengals are allowing the 10th most rushing yards per game at 118.2 and 4.5 yards per carry. Running backs are also catching nearly 7 passes for 57.4 yards a game against them as well. Touchdowns are hard to project but it’s reasonable to assume that Conner could hit similar total yardage numbers that he saw in weeks one and five.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
TJ Yeldon (DK: $6.4k | FD: $7.1k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Yeldon is in line for some solid volume once again and is probably still a bit underpriced in DFS. I wouldn’t expect the Jamaal Charles signing to loom too largely over Yeldon’s workload -- especially in his first week with the team. Dallas could limit Jacksonville’s offensive opportunities as they play at the 4th slowest pace in the league on offense and are the 11th best rush defense, allowing just 95.8 total yards a game on the ground, but they do allow about 7 receptions for 50 yards per game to opposing tailbacks. Yeldon should present a solid floor in this game but I can definitely understand lowering tournament exposure as the ceiling may be limited here.
Dalvin Cook (DK: $5.7k | FD: $6.3k) or Latavius Murray (DK: $4.7k | FD: $5.6k)
Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Yes, neither of these guys would be high confidence picks whatsoever but I have a feeling one will wind up returning value come Sunday. Keep an eye on Dalvin Cook’s practice reports. He got a limited practice in on Wednesday. A full practice Thursday or Friday with potential for close to a full workload could be a GPP goldmine against the Cardinals, who are dead last in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs (38.6 DraftKings/34.4 FanDuel) and 2nd worst in the NFL allowing 142.4 rushing yards per game. The Vikings are the only team in the NFL without a rushing score. One of these guys will most certainly find the endzone this week.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Chris Carson (DK: $4.4k | FD: $6.4k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
With both Chris Carson and Mike Davis sharing some productive touches last week, Carson finished 9th in the NFL in market share, touching the ball 20 times on Seattle’s 55 offensive snaps. Davis’ 14 touches on their 55 snaps represented the 19th highest market share in week five at 25.5%. Both present themselves as viable options against the weak Oakland run defense that I hit on earlier but I will lean towards Carson who edged out Davis in week five in terms of snap percentage: 58% to Davis’ 42%. It’s shaping up to be a committee for sure but if the Seahawks intend to be the most run-committed team in the league, then their backfield is worth a look… apologies if the last part of that sentence sounds inappropriate.
Jacquizz Rodgers (DK: $3.2k | FD: $4.5k)
Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
No way you touch this Bucs backfield anywhere in cash games but in case you haven’t read the past newsletters, let me reiterate once again: target pass catching backs against the Falcons. They’re allowing 9.2 receptions and 77 yards a game to running backs. Rodgers is the most targeted running back on the Bucs roster even though he’s only seen 26.8% of snaps. But the title of “most targeted Bucs RB” only accounts for seven targets. Don’t be surprised if Tampa Bay starts to phase out the largely ineffective Peyton Barber from the offense coming out of the bye week and lean more on Ronald Jones for early down work, while giving Rodgers a ton of passing down snaps. In a game that is predicted to be a shootout, Rodgers could find himself on the field early and often.
Wide Receivers to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Antonio Brown (DK: $8.7k | FD: $9.1k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Antonio Brown is tied with Adam Thielen with an NFL high 66 targets thus far in the season, yet he is catching just 53% of passes compared to Thielen’s 71.2%, though Brown does have two more receiving scores. To me, the catch percentage screams positive regression in Brown’s favor. Brown is 7th in the league among wide receivers with 8 redzone targets, while teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster leads all wide receivers with 15 redzone targets. This is another stat that seems like it will inch towards Brown’s favor sooner rather than later. Of course AB put up a very AB-esque statline of 6/101/2 on 13 targets last week and I can very much see him coming close to similar numbers against the Bengals 12th worst pass defense as long as Big Ben can give him some better opportunities to reel in all of those targets that he’s sending Brown’s way.
Keenan Allen (DK: $7.5k | FD: $8.1k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Speaking of positive regression, Keenan Allen only has one touchdown through five games and is averaging just 6.4 receptions on 9 targets a week. Some of this has to do with the emergence of Austin Ekeler being insanely productive out of the backfield with three receiving touchdowns on just 14 catches, as well as Melvin Gordon dominating redzone usage for the Chargers. Also, if you were to tell me at the start of the season that Philip Rivers would have 13 passing touchdowns through the first five weeks and Allen had only caught one of them, I would have assumed he tore another ACL or something. A monster game is in the cards for Allen soon and it could come against the Browns, whose pass defense ranks 6th worst in the league.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Jarvis Landry (DK: $6.6k | FD: $6.9k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
You’ll be hard pressed to find a better target per dollar option on either site than Landry. This week, I believe the Mayfield/Landry connection gets back on track in a similar fashion as when Baker stepped in towards the end of the first half against the Jets in week three and went on to find Jarvis all over the field. Much like Antonio Brown’s unusually low catch percentage, Landry’s 51.8% catch rate on his 6th league-wide highest 56 targets is simply not going to stay that low with as competent of a quarterback as Mayfield. This will be Mayfield’s third official start and could be his most productive, as his first start came on the road at Oakland and his second came against one of the best pass defenses (and overall defenses) with Baltimore who had just gotten All-Pro corner Jimmy Smith back from suspension. Landry’s floor in PPR has been 12 points this season, so I believe you can take him with a fair amount of safety and he presents plenty of upside as well.
Tyler Boyd (DK: $6k | FD: $6.3k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Boyd had a down game last week, posting just 4 catches for 44 yards on 7 targets but he’s set up perfectly for another juicy value filled day and I can only hope recency bias will keep people away. Pittsburgh’s defensive struggles are well known and they have not been able to stop opposing offense’s secondary receivers whatsoever. On the season, Boyd is tied with teammate AJ Green with a target share of 23% for Cincinnati. Now the Bengals are missing some key pieces to their offense who were previously soaking up a fair amount of Andy Dalton’s targets: Giovanni Bernard (14% of targets) and Tyler Eifert (12%) are both out with injury while John Ross (10%) is questionable heading into this week. Boyd has seen 9.5 targets/game the past four weeks and is a great candidate for double digit looks once again as he will be relied upon heavily in an offense that has recently lost key offensive pieces.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Mohamed Sanu (DK: $4.8k | FD: $5.8k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Calvin Ridley is outshining Sanu in the headlines, and in some aspects even Julio Jones, due to his touchdown prowess this year. If we look at the numbers, however, Sanu leads all Falcons wide receivers with 277 offensive snaps played (80.8% snap percentage) compared to Julio’s 266 snaps (77.6%) and Ridley’s 208 snaps (60.6%). I’m not here to make a case that Sanu is the best wide receiver on this team but he is seeing the most time on the field. And against Tampa Bay’s league worst pass defense that is allowing 358 yards a game through the air, how can you not consider taking a ride on the Sanu Canoe this week when he is priced this low? Matt Ryan and the Falcons are averaging 34.7 ppg at home this season by the way.
Michael Crabtree (DK: $4.7k | FD: $6.2k)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
John Brown, who I do also like this week, is getting all the glory with plenty of deep shots coming his way from Joe Flacco, resulting in Brown leading the league with 871 air yards. Crabtree has seemingly fallen off as more of an afterthought but he leads the Ravens in target share with 20% while edging out Brown’s 19%. Crabtree, a well known sure-handed receiver across his career, is another one of these guys that is thus far on the unlikelier side of variance, catching just 52.2% of his targets and only has one touchdown on the season. He is averaging 10 targets a game since week two, which is rare volume to find in this price range. He’s probably outside the comfort zone to make for a cash play, despite his reasonable floor this year but I’d definitely keep him in your player pool for GPPs.
Tight Ends to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Rob Gronkowski (DK: $6.1k | FD: $7.9k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
The main slate worked out pretty uniquely this week, as Gronkowski, Ertz, Kelce and even emerging tight end stud George Kittle are all playing in prime time games. But I figured Gronk was worth mentioning as the high dollar man at the position anyhow, particularly for DraftKings Mon-Thurs. slates. How often will you see Gronk in a match-up like this one against Kansas City at a $6,100 price tag? Very rarely. Sure, he is getting a step slower later in his career but along the lines of what I mentioned in Brady’s segment, with Josh Gordon progressing and Julian Edelman back in the mix, defenses can’t almost exclusively focus on stopping the big tight end. One touchdown through five games is a rate that is unsustainably low for this man.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Jordan Reed (DK: $5.2k | FD: $6.2k)
Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
This is purely a DvP play as the Panthers rate out 30th against covering the tight end and allow 13.8 DraftKings points per game to the position (11.3 FanDuel). He only saw two targets in the blowout loss to New Orleans on Monday Night but that game was a lost cause very early on. Ultimately, I don’t have a lot of confidence in Reed here but that makes him worth a look in tournaments because everyone else will just skip over his name when building lines. He’s capable of a multi-touchdown game and I’d be surprised if he’s over 5% owned on either site.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Cameron Brate (DK: $3.7k | FD: $4.5k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
OJ Howard was projected to miss 2-4 weeks with his sprained MCL, but coming out of the bye week it seems he is somewhat ahead of schedule after getting a limited practice in on Wednesday. If he is active, Brate’s fantasy prospects take a hit. But if Howard is out, you can likely plug and play Brate as a top cash game value tight end for reasons mentioned several times over already (Atlanta defense = bad) and Jameis also has a history of targeting Brate much more than Howard, even in games that both saw playing time. This TB @ ATL game is a 1:00 pm ET kickoff, so keep an eye on inactives during your preferred Sunday morning NFL show or on Twitter for news regarding Howard’s availability.
Defensive Breakdown
Chicago Bears (DK: $3.3k | FD: $4.5k) @ MIA
Woo! The Bears defense is back on the menu! And they play a not-so-great offense! They’ve scored double-digit points in every game this season, so it’s tough to find a reason to get off the train now, especially for cash games, as they travel down to Miami to face Ryan Tannehill & Co. who are struggling mightily the past couple of weeks.
New York Jets (DK: $2.9k | FD: $4.2k) vs. IND
There are definitely safer options, but in GPPs, if you’re looking for that defense that can give you upside for a touchdown or two, why not give the Jets some consideration against Luck who is averaging a league high 49 pass attempts per game. More passes equate to more opportunities for the defense to pick the ball and make a play for the endzone. More drop backs for passes also equate to more sack & strip-sack/fumble recovery opportunities. The Colts in their current state don’t exactly look to run the ball much, so that’s the logic behind this defensive recommendation. Also, a lot of the top DST options will be on the road and I personally try to lean towards defenses at home, which the Jets will be this week.
Thursday Night Special
Sterling Shepard (DK: $5.7k / $7.8k Showdown | FD: $6.3k / $12k Single Game)
The Eagles have been far more exploitable through the air than on the ground this year. With Evan Engram out once again, look for Shepard to command plenty of looks out of the slot, working across the middle of the field. His 8.2 yard aDOT (average depth of target) should come in handy as he acts as a sort of extension to the run game for the Giants with his high percentage targets. Shepard is 7th in the NFL in catch percentage hauling in 77.8% of throws in his direction. I’d expect his looks from Eli to hit near double digits on Thursday Night Football and he should offer a respectable floor with reasonable upside.
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