Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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Crazy, unexpected, and often historical performances seem to be happening on a weekly basis this NFL season. Don’t beat yourself up if you missed out on the likes of Will Fuller V, Aaron Jones, DJ Chark, Teddy Bridgewater, or any of the other players who turned in monster week five performances. Though, guys like Christian McCaffrey, Amari Cooper, and Michael Thomas, who all had huge days as well, are more of the type of players we’d expect explosive games from and should be more likely to land inside our player pools most weeks. But in the end, no one can truly predict who is going to pop off on any given Sunday -- we just have to do our best to apply past knowledge and current game theory to hopefully land on that one magical lineup!

I mention it most every week, but be sure you’re checking out Greg Landry’s NFL Takeaways, stay tuned into the PreSnap Podcasts, and also don’t hesitate to hearken back to the NFL season preview and strategy guide -- all of that content is linked at the top of the page. At this time of season, it can be extremely important to focus on things like practicing smart bankroll management, contest selection that fits your play style, and reevaluating potential flaws or weaknesses in your DFS process. It doesn’t take much for someone to get discouraged in any daily fantasy sport, but there is a reason you see some of the same names routinely winning these large GPPs week in and week out. Yes, it helps to have a six or seven figure bankroll -- but these guys also aren’t just out here making 300+ lineups and maxing out tournaments all willy-nilly without logic behind each player, team stack, or exposure percentage! Not to sound preachy or anything, that’s just the nature of DFS! Skill is certainly involved!

Also, for those who enjoy playing the showdown contests for the primetime games, we started rolling out an all new newsletter last week; LineStar’s Primetime Preview. Be sure to check that out on Thursdays for some strategy and potential plays for those single game slates!    

The Bucs and Panthers are playing over in London while the Bills, Bears, Colts, and Raiders are all on bye this week. As such, we have just ten games that fall onto the Sunday main slate but there are still unlimited angles to attack this one. Let’s get a look at some potential games to target and players to consider for week six!

Games to Target

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals | 51.5 O/U

ATL: 27 implied points | ARI: 24.5 implied points

As long as a game with the Arizona Cardinals is projected to be relatively close, they’re going to be a team I look to target (with game stacking in mind) all season. In this week’s case, this match-up features two pass-happy teams who play very uptempo. Atlanta passes on 72% of plays (most in NFL) and plays at the 6th fastest pace on offense. Arizona passes on 65.5% of plays (6th most in NFL) and plays at the second fastest pace. These are also two defenses that allow the 4th (Arizona) and 5th (Atlanta) most fantasy points on average. The over is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams. In terms of shootout potential, this game will certainly get overshadowed by the Texans at Chiefs (-5) game which carries a 55 over/under. You should, of course, consider plenty of players in that match-up but I really love the scoring environment that this Falcons/Cardinals game has potential for as well.

Dallas Cowboys (-7) @ New York Jets | 44 O/U

DAL: 25 implied points | NYJ: 18 implied points

I know there are plenty of far more appealing games to highlight in this section but the likely return of Sam Darnold has me intrigued with this match-up. His return is not exactly leading me to be interested in deploying Darnold in DFS, or picking the Jets to win. More so, I’d be more keen on the likes of Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, Robby Anderson, and Chris Herndon. All of those guys have seen their DFS prices plummet in Darnold’s absence but they should clearly benefit from his return. As a result, I think at least one or two of those guys ends up returning really nice value. After a pair of ugly losses, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are in need to prove their 3-0 start wasn’t a fluke. If they win this week, they’ll still face critics saying “well, they still haven’t beaten a good team.” But, like their first three opponents (Giants, Redskins, Dolphins), the Jets are another exploitable defense for their offense to get back on track against and possibly score another 30+ points. Again, this is all contingent on Darnold playing, but I wouldn’t be shocked by the over hitting in this one.

Quarterbacks to Target

Lamar Jackson | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CIN

As I often mention, quarterback isn’t always an optimal position to spend up on in NFL DFS, but after his worst game of the season came last week at Pittsburgh, I would imagine Jackson is a strong leverage play against the Bengals at home. The Cincy defense let Kyler Murray run for 93 yards (and a score) on them last week and they gave up 46 yards on the ground to Josh Allen in week three, so Jackson (61.6 rushing YPG) should be able to tack on a decent chunk of yardage on the ground himself. Quarterbacks are completing 69.5% of their passes against this Cincinnati defense and Baltimore trails only Kansas City with an implied team total of 29.8 points. The Ravens may be huge 11.5 point favorites but, after their defense has shown struggles of their own, I wouldn’t be shocked if Andy Dalton and the Bengals can play well enough to hang around for most of this game. I’m loving Lamar as a tournament option this week.

Matt Ryan | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8.1k | @ ARI

Ryan has snagged that “300+ yards passing” bonus every week this season on DraftKings and checks in as a better value over there but, considering how much Atlanta is passing the ball these days (72% of plays, leads NFL), he’s worth a look at his FanDuel price as well. Arizona is allowing the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and, as I alluded to above in the “Games to Target” section, both teams in this game should be playing at a very fast pace. As such, Ryan and the Falcons should have a few additional opportunities on offense in a game that is projected to remain close and high scoring. This should be another strong floor game for Ryan and his ceiling also falls back into that 30+ fantasy point territory for a second consecutive week.

Gardner Minshew II | DK: $5k, FD: $6.9k | vs. NO

If you’re looking to spend down at the position, how can you not be on board for some Minshew Mania? Minshew has thrown two touchdowns in four of his five games this season and last week he attempted a season-high 44 passes while adding on 46 rushing yards. This Saints defense is a bit of an underrated unit, particularly up front, but they have still allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Minshew has also made several highlight scramble plays this season, so I believe his mobility and pocket presence will help mitigate the New Orleans pass rush. With Leonard Fournette busting out huge chunk plays and creating more missed tackles as DJ Chark emerges as a legitimate number one NFL wide receiver, the Jags have developed some sneaky strong firepower. But Minshew is undoubtedly the engine that makes this offense go. He should be a solid cash play if you’re looking to afford more studly receivers and running backs.

Running Backs to Target

Alvin Kamara | DK: $8k, FD: $7.9k | @ JAX

 It’s tough to really trust Kamara in the Brees-less Saints offense, due to less expected redzone opportunities, but Kamara is still getting plenty of touches (20+ in 4-of-5 weeks) and is too insanely talented to fade in any given week. Latavius Murray is only averaging six touches per game this season and clearly isn’t playing in that same sort of complementary role that Mark Ingram had in this Saints offense in previous seasons. If Kamara regularly sees 20-25 touches, he is going to provide explosive slate-breaking games, particularly when positive touchdown regression falls his way -- like in week three against Seattle. Kamara has a league leading 47 evaded tackles and has proven to be one of the most elusive guys to take down every week. Jacksonville also hasn’t been very stingy on the ground, allowing the 8th most fantasy points per game to running backs, including a league worst 5.5 yards per rush attempt. I’m completely fine with paying up for Kamara this week. If he had another touchdown or two on his resume this season, no one would really be questioning whether or not he is worth his high salaries.

Le’Veon Bell | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.8k | vs. DAL

 Despite Sam Darnold’s absence and the overall ineptitude of this offense without him, Bell has still managed to churn out respectable fantasy outputs. Sure, he may only be averaging 2.9 YPC but, really, what do you expect? He has been the only guy that opposing defenses have had to worry about stopping. Bell has still been heavily involved in the passing game (8.3 targets/game) which has obviously helped his floor. Now with Darnold (likely) back in the mix, defenses can’t simply stack eight in the box in order to stuff Bell. The Cowboys just got gashed by Aaron Jones last week and surrendered four touchdowns. As a result, their defensive numbers against RBs have taken a hit (29.9 DraftKings FPPG allowed, 4th most). While you can’t expect anything close to that sort of performance from Bell, he’s clearly too cheap compared to the expected workload that he’ll be given this week.

Chris Carson | DK: $6k, FD: $7.2k | @ CLE

Carson’s 28 touches last week on 67 total offensive plays represented a 41.8% market share -- the third highest mark of the week. He’s the bellcow in an offense that typically wants to feature the run game as much as possible. Seattle has run the ball on 47.7% of plays this season -- 5th most in the league. Everyone just saw the 49ers run all over Cleveland in primetime on Monday Night Football (40 attempts, 275 yards, 6.9 YPC), so I’d expect Carson to be pretty popular here. But, given the relatively affordable prices, I’ll gladly roster him against this leaky Browns run defense.

Kenyan Drake | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.6k | vs. WAS

 If there’s ever a time to expect some success from this Miami offense, it should be this week against a terrible Redskins defense which is allowing 30.2 PPG (3rd most). They’re giving up the 7th most FPPG to running backs, including 6.2 receptions/game, which is where Kenyan Drake (5.0 targets/game) should be able to add to his floor. Kalen Ballage has proven to be completely ineffective and, as just 3.5 point underdogs, who would really be surprised if Miami gets a lead in this one? Drake could find himself handling a more traditional bellcow role this week with a legitimate workload on all three downs.

Wide Receivers to Target

DeAndre Hopkins | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | @ KC

 We have to consider Nuk to be another premium leverage play after Will Fuller’s ridiculous 14 catch, 217 yard, 3 touchdown game last week. Hopkins, meanwhile, hasn’t scored since week one and hasn’t seen more than eight targets in that span either. Still, he leads the Texans with a 28% target share, which is also the third highest target share in the league. Eventually, something will give here. In a potential shootout with Kansas City, and defenses now realizing that they will definitely need to respect Will Fuller, we could see Hopkins churn out a strong stat line that we’ve come accustomed to in previous seasons.

Cooper Kupp | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k | vs. SF

This San Francisco defense is a tough one to read but I think we’ll get a better idea of just how solid they are this week. The Rams are taking the field at home, where Jared Goff tends to be much more reliable, and Kupp has exhibited one of the best floors in fantasy. He ranks second in the league with a 28.5% target share and has posted a true catch rate of 95.3% (ranks 3rd). He rarely comes off the field (94% snap rate) and is averaging a ridiculous 12.6 targets/game. If Brandin Cooks (concussion) is forced to miss this game, anticipate an even heavier workload to head Kupp’s way.

Michael Gallup | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.1k | @ NYJ

I don’t believe enough people have come around to accept anyone in this Cowboy’s receiving corps, other than Amari Cooper, as a legitimate fantasy asset. However, Gallup is an integral cog in Dallas’ offense and has just 14 fewer targets than Cooper, despite missing two games. Dak Prescott has targeted Gallup on 32% of his routes and the match-up with Jets cornerback Darryl Roberts is a strong one. Roberts is the 82nd ranked cornerback on the season and he has been one of the heaviest targeted defensive backs in the league, as opposing QBs have thrown in his direction on 27% of routes run against him.

Auden Tate | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.4k | @ BAL

 Tate was a week five chalk play, and bailed out owners with a late fourth quarter touchdown, so we’ll see how much ownership heads his way after seeing a bit of a salary bump. With John Ross sidelined, Tate played on 100% of offensive snaps last week. This week, teammate Tyler Boyd could see shadow coverage from the Ravens best cornerback, Marlon Humphrey. That could open up even more looks for Tate from Andy Dalton. While Humphrey has been good, Baltimore’s secondary as a whole has been suspect. They have given up the 9th most FPPG to opposing WRs, so I don’t believe this is a defensive unit to shy away from.

Jamison Crowder | DK: $4k, FD: $5.4k | vs. DAL

This one is pretty straightforward. If Darnold plays, Crowder could be peppered with 10+ targets which would obviously result in strong potential value. In week one, he caught 14-of-17 targets from Darnold for 99 yards. He’s more in play on DraftKings, given the $4,000 price tag and full PPR scoring. But at $5,400 on FanDuel, there could still be plenty of meat left on the bone if we’re expecting Crowder to possibly get double-digit looks. I can’t endorse this as a safe play, since we’ve only seen Darnold and Crowder play one game with each other, but there’s a nice mix of value plus upside if they pick right back up where they left off.

Tight Ends to Target

George Kittle | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.5k | @ LAR

While the tight end flowchart says play Austin Hooper (DK: $5k, FD: $6.4k) against the Cardinals, I’m having a hard time clicking his name in lineups when George Kittle is priced $100-$200 above him. Kittle finally shooed away the regression monster by finding the endzone on Monday Night Football and caught 6-of-8 targets for 70 yards (and added an 18 yard rush). San Francisco is clearly aiming to be a run first offense, but Kittle’s role (25% target share, leads team) isn’t going away. It was also encouraging to see the 49ers throw his way even after holding a comfortable lead later into the game. Hooper may be the safer play, mostly due to the match-up, but Kittle doesn’t feel like a major risk if you decide to pivot his way. And he, of course, benefits from not having his salaries increased after a strong game on Monday Night Football (when week six salaries were already released).

Chris Herndon | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.4k | vs. DAL

I might have to go take a shower after talking so much about the Jets offense in this newsletter but New York is sorely in need of weapons in the pass game and Herndon can absolutely help now that he returns from his four game suspension. Herndon stands 6’4”, 255 lbs and is an incredible athlete -- almost in the same vein as Oakland’s Darren Waller. He is a match-up nightmare and came on as a fairly reliable target for Sam Darnold last season. I know I’m sounding like a broken record, but “if Darnold plays” Herndon is worth a gamble in tournaments.

Please Note: Herndon is currently doubtful with a hamstring injury. Keep an eye on his status.

Noah Fant | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.5k | vs. TEN

If you’re completely punting the position, I suppose there are worse options out there than Denver’s first round rookie Noah Fant. The Broncos are actually targeting him downfield once or twice most games and his 131 targeted air yards ranks 3rd on the team behind WRs Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton. Tennessee has allowed 15.4 DraftKings FPPG to TEs this year (6th most) and is a defensive weakness which Denver can exploit.

Defensive Breakdown

Seattle Seahawks | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.1k | @ CLE

Mayfield has looked terrible under pressure and has now thrown a league high eight interceptions on the year while getting sacked 16 times. With pass rushers like Jadeveon Clowney and Ziggy Ansah alongside one of the games best linebackers in Bobby Wagner, expect plenty of blitzes and turnover opportunities to head Seattle’s way.

Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. HOU

The Chiefs would be considered a contrarian play, for sure, but Deshaun Watson drops back behind a poor offensive line and is one of the most sacked QBs in the NFL. He’s already been sacked 18 times this season, which ranks as the fourth most. The Chiefs defense didn’t really show it last Sunday night, but they tend to be a bit more opportunistic at home where Arrowhead can present itself as a foreboding environment for opposing teams.

New York Jets | DK: $1.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. DAL

Throwing the Jets in as more of a “DraftKings only” play because of that $1,500 price tag. I’m glad DK is starting to lower the floor on DST pricing because now we can actually consider bad defenses like the Jets for these sorts of prices. If you get just four or five points for $1.5k, could you really complain? I don’t think you can if it means that you were able to upgrade from a RB2 to an RB1!

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