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- Top NFL Plays Week #7 | Hitting the Mid-Season Stride
Top NFL Plays Week #7 | Hitting the Mid-Season Stride
Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS
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Hello again for our week seven edition of the LineStar Weekly Pylon! It was another action-packed week in the NFL that also featured some very entertaining Sunday and Monday primetime games. And show of hands -- who had the Brock Osweiler and Albert Wilson stack on Sunday? Anyone? It can be maddening sometimes trying to predict an often unpredictable sport but in DFS, you just have to stay vigilant while also not being afraid to tweak your process and approach from time to time!
As we venture further into the middle of the season, bye weeks are kicking up as four teams will now have the week off: Green Bay, Oakland, Pittsburgh and Seattle. Out of 14 games, six carry totals over 49 points though the two highest total games, Cincinnati at Kansas City and the New York Giants at Atlanta, are both off of the main slate. I mentioned this in the LineStar chat but this week may be a good one to gain more exposure to the full Thursday through Monday slate. The TNF game between the Cardinals and Broncos only has a total of 40.5 -- the lowest of any game this week. More so speaking in terms of cash games, people will often times force in sub-optimal players from the Thursday match-up and many folks will also neglect to update their lineups as news comes through leading up to the Sunday games. You can also gain exposure to the two Sunday and Monday primetime games which, as noted above, are expected to be the highest scoring face-offs as both eclipse 54.5 point totals. It’s definitely a strategy I will be implementing on the week. Now, let’s get into a couple games we can look to target along with some enticing plays for week seven!
Games to Target
Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3) | 49.5 O/U
CLE: 23.25 implied points | TB: 26.25 implied points
This is a game that is chock full of GPP goodness and some guys that could fall into cash game consideration as well. The total here is tied for the second highest on the main slate behind the Rams @ 49ers (53 O/U). The spread here is close enough, with the Bucs being three point home favorites, to where we should expect a competitive game down to the end. This game also features two defenses in the bottom five of the league in terms of yardage allowed on a per game basis, with TB surrendering 439.8 yds/gm and CLE 406.5 yds/gm. Defensive scoring wise, TB is allowing a league worst 34.6 pts/gm and CLE comes in 13th at 25.2 pts/gm.
The Browns have played three overtime games this year, so perhaps they can get a bit of a pass on some extra yardage allowed, but they’re still a mediocre defense as an entire unit despite young standouts such as Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. The Bucs will also play their first game after firing defensive coordinator Mike Smith -- but really there isn’t a whole lot you can remedy within one week. Overall, both passing attacks can be considered here and the tight ends on both sides are where I’d lean to target for cash games -- Njoku and Howard specifically. I wouldn’t entrust the Bucs run game just yet, despite Peyton Barber coming off his best game of the season, while Hyde for the Browns makes for an intriguing higher volume salary saver at the position, though don’t expect much PPR contribution.
Update: With Carlos Hyde being traded to Jacksonville, Nick Chubb instantly becomes the best predicted value on the slate and should be a virtual lock for cash games. Duke Johnson Jr. has even more appeal as well especially in tournaments.
New Orleans at Baltimore (-2.5) | 49.5 O/U
NO: 23.5 implied points | BAL: 26 implied points
Here we have another match-up with a 49.5 total that projects to be a close one with the Ravens sitting at 2.5 point home favorites. The Ravens have one of the best defenses in football and lead the league, allowing just 270.8 yds/gm and 12.8 pts/gm and are coming off of a shutout road victory over the Titans. The Saints, despite common public perception, are actually not a terrible defense overall, as they check in 15th in the NFL allowing 369 total yds/gm and are the league’s best run defense, allowing only 71.4 ypg rushing. They do allow 28 pts/gm, which is the 7th most -- though outside of two shootouts with the Bucs and Falcons, they’ve held their other three opponents to under 20 points a game. Those teams being the Browns, Giants and Redskins, so take that as you will.
Overall, I expect New Orleans and practically their entire offense to garner very little ownership when compared to what we have been seeing, despite the fact that they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this match-up. When people see Brees playing on the road, and especially outdoors, that is enough to make them look elsewhere -- making this a prime spot to look towards some Saints playmakers in GPPs. Flacco will likely be a very popular cash game quarterback, rightfully so since the Saints strong run defense funnels opposing offenses to a pass heavy approach with an average of nearly 300 yards a game allowed through the air. The Ravens have three fairly highly targeted receivers; Crabtree, coming off of a nice week that included a touchdown, and Snead, who carries a solid PPR floor, should be the more popular options to roster and stack with Flacco. John Brown is of course the high aDOT deep threat and though he can’t exactly be trusted for cash, he has the ability to pay off his salary on just a couple of catches.
Quarterbacks to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Jared Goff (DK: $6.6k | FD: $8.3k) @ SF
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Goff is coming off of what was a pretty predictable let-down spot in a frigid road game in Denver where the Rams were able to just ride Todd Gurley against an exploitable Broncos' run defense. Though he stays on the road, Goff returns to California to face the 49ers, who allow the 8th most passing yards a game (279 yds/gm) and will be on a short week after getting the Aaron Rodgers treatment to the tune of 425 yards and two scores in a tough Monday Night Football loss. Despite the likelihood of being without his reliable slot WR Cooper Kupp, expect this to be a prime bounce-back spot for the Rams passing attack as they carry a hefty implied team total of 32 points.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Cam Newton (DK: $5.9k | FD: $8.2k) @ PHI
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
The Eagles have been very stout against the run, ranking as the 2nd best rush defense in the NFL but their pass defense has been heavily exploited a couple times this season. In week two, Ryan Fitzpatrick notched 34 fantasy points against them and Marcus Mariota tagged them up for 34.4 fantasy points in week four. Newton is as capable as any QB to have a 30+ fantasy point outing and the Panthers will rely on him to do it all this week as McCaffrey may struggle to get anything going in the ground game. Newton, as he typically does, will need to contribute on designed runs and scrambles when forced out of or up into the pocket. And on the season, he is averaging 41.6 yards a game rushing with 29 yards being his lowest total in any one game. So you do get a few points of added safety there to go along with the favorable match-ups against the Eagles perimeter corners. The Panthers passing attack is in a great spot to attack here in tournaments.
💲 Low Salary 💲
CJ Beathard (DK: $4.8k | FD: $6.4k) vs. LAR
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Well, I didn’t think I’d be writing up Beathard two weeks in a row, but here we are. The guy keeps producing solid numbers (relative to his salary) largely in part to head coach Kyle Shanahan putting the offense in favorable spots with intelligent play-calling -- something I’m sure many other young QBs in the league are envious of. Beathard is just a few hundred dollars above minimum salary for quarterbacks on both sites, despite averaging about 22 fantasy PPG in his three starts this season. With the Rams coming to town, you can bet that the 49ers, as 11 point underdogs, will be forced into another game of “keep up,” similar to the one they had against the Packers on Monday night. It’s early in the week but throwing in Beathard in a cash (or GPP) build frees up your ability to roster multiple stud running backs and/or receivers. And, at least for cash, you can probably get away without trying to guess who to stack along with him and just roll him out “naked” as the term goes -- the “naked Beathard” approach, if you will.
Running Backs to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Saquon Barkley (DK: $8.9k | FD: $8.2k) @ ATL
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Goodness gracious, if this isn’t about as much of a smash spot as it gets, I don’t know what else would be. And yes LineStar user @FrankG, I see you in Barkley’s player comments and I agree -- how can he still be this cheap (on FanDuel)? I know Barkley is not on the main slate but it seems worth it alone to play the full Thursday thru Monday slate just to get some exposure to him. No, Atlanta is not the worst run defense by a decent margin but they are the 8th worst, allowing 121.7 yds/gm on the ground. But as regular readers of this newsletter may be tired of me saying, PLAY PASS CATCHING BACKS VERSUS ATLANTA! Sorry to yell here but the Falcons are allowing 8.8 receptions, 70.8 yards receiving and a receiving touchdown per game to running backs. That’s nearly 22 PPR points just in the receiving game alone and you can certainly guarantee Saquon gets around 90+% of the work out of the backfield in this match-up. I could write probably 6k words alone just on why you should play Barkley in this spot but I’ll stop myself. Now, if he scores like six fantasy points this week I may go MIA for a while…
Ezekiel Elliot (DK: $8.1k | FD: $8.4k) @ WAS
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
I’m not intentionally overlooking Gurley at the top because if you can fit him in, of course he’s about as safe of a play as it gets. But Zeke represents a similar form of safety in his own right. Starting in week one, he has a touch count of 18, 22, 19, 29, 27, and 25. At a snap rate of 87.1%, he is in on the second highest amount of his team’s offensive snaps in the NFL among running backs, trailing only Christian McCaffrey who has an insane 95.2% snap rate. Washington does boast the 6th best run defense in the league, allowing just 90.2 yds/gm but they are allowing 6.8 receptions a game to running backs to go along with 41.4 yards receiving and 0.8 TDs. As we know, Zeke has taken a step forward in the pass-catching department this year and sees an average of 5 targets per week. In three career games against Washington, two of his fantasy point totals have been 26 and 30 points (DraftKings). This is a division rivalry where things can get dicey in a hurry but it seems his floor should be about 15 fantasy points this week and that is if he doesn’t find the endzone, which he has done in four out of six games.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Tarik Cohen (DK: $5.1k | FD: $6.6k) vs. NE
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
The mid-range of running back pricing, at least on the main slate, seems a bit muddled with guys in tough match-ups, uncertain workloads, or other various factors that make things tricky. However, for the past two games the Bears have played (weeks four and six), Tarik Cohen has ranked inside the top ten in the entire NFL in target share for the week… as a running back. In week four he was 8th among all NFL players as his eight targets represented a 30.8% of his team’s target share. Last week, he was 10th with a 29% target share with his nine targets. They say once is a fluke, twice is a coincidence, three times is a trend. Well, against the Patriots this week, one would assume that gamescript will lead to the Bears having to keep pace with Tom Brady’s offense, resulting in plenty more targets for the Bears shifty “joker back”. I usually try to avoid game flow dependent running backs in cash but this seems like a killer spot for Cohen at a reasonable salary (probably too cheap on DraftKings with full PPR scoring). My main concern is if Belichick decides that Cohen is the primary offensive weapon that he wants stopped -- which he often has a knack for accomplishing, though I guess Tyreek Hill wasn’t in that part of the gameplan on Sunday. The Pats do give up 6.3 receptions and 57.3 receiving yards to running backs per game, so there’s room for optimism in terms of Cohen’s floor regardless of whether or not Bill decides to try to mitigate his production.
Latavius Murray (DK: $5k | FD: $6.5k) @ NYJ
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
I think I’m getting a bit long winded at times, so I’ll try to be a bit more concise for some of these guys. This recommendation is obviously dependent on whether or not Dalvin Cook suits up this week. If he’s out again, Murray falls into play and possibly into cash game consideration, though he has let us down before this season when many thought he’d be a great play against Buffalo -- but that game was doomed from the start. The Jets should look to focus on stopping Cousins and the passing attack first and foremost which would leave room for Murray to operate against their defense allowing 4.3 ypc (15th worst in NFL). Murray would likely see all vital redzone and goal line carries as well on an offense projected to move the ball with an implied team total of 25 points.
Update: Dalvin Cook has been ruled out.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Kerryon Johnson (DK: $4.5k | FD: 6.5k) @ MIA
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Johnson is questionable with an ankle injury this week but all signs point towards him being a full go coming off of the Lions’ bye. Head coach Matt Patricia is, up to this point, still hellbent on keeping LeGarrette Blount involved, despite his abysmal 2.5 ypc average on 47 carries compared to Kerryon’s 5.7 ypc average on 50 carries. Until that changes, we can’t trust Johnson for cash games, despite the low salary. But perhaps there’s hope that this is the week they transition into giving Johnson around 20-ish touches against Miami’s 12th worst rush defense, allowing 118.2 ypg. If there is any silver lining, Johnson is the preferred receiver over Blount by far and Miami allows 7.2/64/0.8 receiving to the RB position. Sure, some of that will go to Riddick but Johnson should see at least between two to four targets come his way.
Update: Riddick has been ruled out which should give Kerryon a sizable boost in the passing game. I'm upgrading him to a four star cash play and five star GPP play.
Duke Johnson Jr. (DK: $4k | FD: $5.1k) @ TB
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Johnson has been heavily considered to be under-utilized by the Browns much of this season but he reeled off 109 all-purpose yards last week, which is a positive sign even though Cleveland was behind quite a bit for most of the game and gamescript sort of forced the ball to Duke. If you scroll through his game logs from 2017, you’d see how productive he was as a pass catcher. And in a game that could easily turn into a bit of a shootout, there’s room for Duke Johnson Jr. to have another sneaky productive day against a horrible Bucs' defense.
Update: With Hyde traded, DJJ becomes more appealing in both cash games and tournaments -- though Nick Chubb will clearly carry more ownership.
Wide Receivers to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Adam Thielen (DK: $8.6k | FD: $8.7k) @ NYJ
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Well, it’s certainly hard to be surprised by this pick, eh? This man has both the highest and safest floor at the position and it’s really not even close. The Jets have been getting trounced by slot receivers all season and I have a really hard time not seeing Thielen extend his 100+ yard receiving streak to seven games this week. He’s a virtual lock for double digit looks, as he leads the league in targets with 80 (13.5 per game) and his sticky fingers are reeling in those targets at a 71.6% catch rate. If you can afford this guy, just lock him in. Teammate Stefon Diggs has a ton of GPP appeal as well.
AJ Green (DK: $8.1k | FD: $8.8k) @ KC
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Green has been good this year… definitely not great. He only has one 100+ yard game, and aside from his week two game against Baltimore where he snagged three first half touchdowns, no particular game of his really jumps off the page. What better to remedy a superstar’s lackluster season than a Sunday night showdown with the league’s most forgiving defense in Kansas City? With receiving options like John Ross, Tyler Eifert, Giovanni Bernard and Tyler Kroft all banged up or out for the year, this Bengals offense really only has a few reliable threats at their disposal on offense. Green is coming off his most targeted game of the year with 12 targets and should see double digit looks once again up against the Chiefs who are allowing 198.7 receiving yards a game to opposing wide receivers.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Robert Woods (DK: $7k | FD: $7.7k) @ SF
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Woods was just 8 receiving yards short (in week five at Seattle) of having four consecutive games with 100+ receiving yards. Now, with Cooper Kupp looking to be sidelined this week (not confirmed as of Wednesday), his 7 targets per game will need to be distributed elsewhere. Teammate Brandin Cooks obviously should benefit as well, but I like Woods to take on more of a prominent role in the redzone where Kupp was especially utilized (8th in NFL with 12 redzone targets). Woods also has a catch rate of 70.6% this season and should most certainly see 10+ targets on this high powered offense. If you can’t spend up to Thielen, Woods seems like a nice secondary “safe floor” option.
Update: Kupp has been ruled out.
Kenny Golladay (DK: $6k | FD: $7k) @ MIA
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
What a leap forward Golladay has taken in his second year in the league. He’s eclipsed 17 fantasy points (DraftKings) in four of five games this year and leads this Lions team in air yards on the season. He’s also not far behind Golden Tate (26%) in target share, as he sees 21% of Matthew Stafford’s targets and has a catch rate of 65.9%. Miami is an exploitable match-up, as they allow the 9th most yards passing at 279 yds/gm and allow the 6th highest yards per pass attempt at 8.1 yds. This all bodes well for a receiver seeing 8.2 targets a week in a pass-first offense. There’s no line out on this game yet, as Ryan Tannehill’s status is unclear. And I’m no odds maker or anything but if I had to guess, the total on this game should hover around 46.5 and I’ll give Detroit a total of 24 points as one and a half point road favorites. Someone @ me in chat on how wrong I am when the spread comes out.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Keke Coutee (DK: $4.3k | FD: $5.6k) @ JAX
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
The Texans coaching staff just needs to go back and watch Cole Beasley’s 11 target, 9 catch, 101 yard, two touchdown performance from last week to realize that Jacksonville is beatable in the slot which, of course, is where Coutee operates from. Hopkins and Fuller will have to deal with Ramsey and Bouye on the perimeter, leaving Coutee as a potential beneficiary to targets funneled in his direction. This makes him a really intriguing spend down option, especially in tournaments as people tend to just see “JAX” in the match-up column and continue to look elsewhere. Coutee was pretty quiet last week but still had two great outings the weeks prior and Houston will have to mostly lean on the pass game to move the ball once again.
Jermaine Kearse (DK: $4.1k | FD: $5k) vs. MIN
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
This is probably one of your main chalky value options you should really consider in cash games. Quincy Enunwa is sidelined for a few weeks and Kearse had already began to take over the slot role before he got hurt. The Jets do their best to be a run first team but when they need to pass, they will look to give rookie QB Sam Darnold some plays that result in a high success rate. This of course should result in plenty of quick, short aDOT targets in the direction of Kearse. Last week out of the slot, Kearse was tied for 7th in the NFL in target share (33.3%) seeing 10 targets, catching nine of them for 94 yards. Despite the tough match-up with Minnesota, the Jets have a solid implied point total of 22 points and should be able to move the ball with some decent success.
Tight Ends to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
George Kittle (DK: $5k | FD: $6.4k) vs. LAR
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
I’m going to skip the “big three” (and Ebron) in the high salary tight ends because constantly choosing between Ertz, Kelce and Gronkowski in these newsletters is just getting a bit… old. Tight end is a position you often don’t need to spend up on due to both the volatility of the position and the WRs and RBs who carry similar salaries of the three guys previously mentioned but may have higher ceilings week to week. So we land on Kittle, who has shown a high ceiling already in week four with his college teammate, CJ Beathard, at quarterback. Plenty of experts out there refer to Kittle as an athletic freak at this position and he’s certainly shown it with his big play ability. He makes for a very intriguing GPP stack piece in Beathard lineups or just on his own, as he’s led the 49ers with a 21% target share on the season.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
David Njoku (DK: $4.2k | FD: $5.7k) @ TB
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
If you have eyeballs, you may notice that Njoku’s production has gone up every week since Mayfield has taken over quarterback duties. He has 23 targets over the past two weeks with a reception of at least 22 yards in each of the past two games. Njoku is another one of those freakish athletes that can break a long touchdown despite his 6’4” 250 lb frame. Tight ends are often times safety nets for young QBs in the NFL and it’s clearly panning out that way in Cleveland. Add on to the fact that he gets a prime match-up with a terrible Tampa Bay defense allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends, and it seems you have a safe and affordable playmaker in this spot.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Charles Clay (DK: $2.8k | FD: $4.6k) @ IND
Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
This is purely a combination of a DvP play and a Hail Mary of a punt at the position. The Colts allow the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends and Derek Anderson starting for the Bills has to be considered an upgrade over the alternative option (Nathan Peterman). Clay is playing on 68.5% of snaps and may be able to offer some sort of help to the old veteran on some short to intermediate routes and perhaps he gets lucky and finds the end zone, which is all you can really hope for when you dive this deep into tight end pricing.
Defensive Breakdown
Colts (DK: $3.3k | FD: $4.1k) vs. BUF
As if it is any surprise, we should expect the Colts D/ST to be the highest owned defense of the week. It’s hard to argue against, particularly in cash. Unfortunately, it seems 35-year-old veteran Derek Anderson will get the start for the Bills instead of the pick machine Nathan Peterman, but that doesn’t dissuade me all too much from feeling confident in the Colts' defensive floor and upside in this spot.
Saints (DK: $2.2k | FD: $3.6k) @ BAL
This is certainly not a defensive play for the faint of heart but the Saints D/ST does have back-to-back games of 8 points with four takeaways in that span as well as three sacks in each of the past four games. Last week, I noted the Jets could be a sleeper defense since Luck would be throwing a ton, which leads to more pick-six opportunities. Taking the Saints falls into a similar form of thinking, their rush defense is ranked tops in the league, which may result in Flacco throwing 50+ times. More pass attempts equals more opportunities for a defensive touchdown. Given the high projected ownership on Flacco, this could be a useful defensive pivot for tournaments.
Thursday Night Special
David Johnson (DK: $6.7k / $11.2k Showdown | FD: $7.5k / $15k Single Game) vs. DEN
Normally I try to find a cheap punt play with the single game contests in mind but really, in a game that bears are the lowest total of the week, I am just going to stick with the clear cut recommendation to play David Johnson. If there’s any week where Cardinals' offensive coordinator Mike McCoy can’t possibly screw up David Johnson’s usage, it should be against this Broncos' rush defense that ranks as the worst in the league. They’re getting obliterated on the ground at a clip of 161.3 yds/gm and 5.6 ypc. And trust me, they were plenty bad before Todd Gurley ran for 208 yards on 28 carries against them last week. It’s also ridiculous that an athlete like David Johnson, who could easily play wide receiver in the NFL, hasn’t seen more than five targets in a game since week one. I’m hoping McCoy feels some pressure on primetime television and comes to the realization that he has one of the best players in the league wasting away in his offense, as he just decides to run him up the middle 15 times a game. We’ll see!
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