Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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We’ll have a great set of what should be some highly competitive games for our week seven main slate. Out of 11 games, eight currently possess spreads under four points. As we rapidly approach the midway point of the season, the Oct. 29th trade deadline draws closer. We already saw a pretty major domino fall this week as the Rams filled a critical defensive void when they acquired Jalen Ramsey from the Jaguars. We won’t have to wait much longer to see what other hugely impactful moves other playoff contenders look to make in the coming weeks! Should be fun!

Now, let’s get a look at all of our main slate match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-3) | 49 O/U

• ARI: 23 implied points | NYG: 26 implied points

• ARI Off. Pace Rank: 1st | NYG Off. Pace Rank: 8th

• ARI PPG Allowed: 28.5 | NYG PPG Allowed: 26.7

Two fast paced offenses facing bad defenses, what’s not to like?! The Cardinals do get a pretty huge boost in their secondary this week, which has been very lackluster up to this point. Patrick Peterson will be returning to the lineup after serving his six game suspension. However, the Giants offense has licked their wounds and should be back in full force coming off of a long week. Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram have both logged full practices as of Wednesday, while Sterling Shepard has gotten some limited work in. Assuming those three guys are suiting up this Sunday, that will go a long way in making this game much more appealing from a fantasy and game stack perspective. It seems that Kyler Murray and company are starting to gel into this potentially prolific Kliff Kingsbury offensive system, but we also have to temper expectations considering they just played two awful Atlanta and Cincinnati defenses. But, at least for another week, they’ll get another shot at a very forgiving defense in the Giants.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1) | 48 O/U

• HOU: 23.5 implied points | IND: 24.5 implied points

• HOU Off. Pace Rank: 19th | IND Off. Pace Rank: 15th

• HOU PPG Allowed: 22.3 | IND PPG Allowed: 23

The Rams (-3) at Falcons game (54 O/U) probably has more appeal from a shootout perspective, but this Texans/Colts game stands out as well. This is a divisional game, which can often go on to be lower scoring affairs, but the last time these two teams played at Lucas Oil Stadium, they combined for 71 points in a tight 37-34 Houston victory. Now, that game obviously had Andrew Luck under center for Indy but Jacoby Brissett has proven to be highly serviceable this season. What will be interesting to see is just how much Deshaun Watson and his dangerous weapons can push the aggressiveness of the Colts offense. We saw Frank Reich orchestrate a pretty masterful game plan a couple weeks ago against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Reich and the Colts were able to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field with extended run-heavy drives filled with dink-and-dunk passes. He also dialed up some incredible defensive play calls which the Chiefs were not ready for -- given, Mahomes clearly wasn’t 100% for much of that game after suffering a mild ankle injury. The Texans have to do everything they can not to fall into the same fate, otherwise this game will have a 20-13 type score written all over it. There is a fairly narrow group of players that these two offenses run through, so finding guys to stack together here won’t be too difficult. 

Quarterbacks to Target

Russell Wilson | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. BAL

 This Ravens defense has proven to be one of the more overrated units in the league. The quarterbacks they have faced this season include the likes of Josh Rosen, Mason Rudolph, Andy Dalton and a struggling Baker Mayfield. Yet, their 7.7 yards allowed per pass attempt ranks as the seventh highest in the league. Now, they’ll go on the road to face Russ Wilson, who is second in the NFL (to… Derek Carr?!) completing 72.5% of his passes, while his 9.0 YPA trails only Patrick Mahomes (9.1 YPA). Wilson is also back to adding more value with his legs lately, averaging 25.2 YPG on six rushing attempts/game. Seattle is still one of most run-heavy teams in the NFL (rushes on 48.3% of plays, ranks 4th) so we likely aren’t going to see Wilson throw 40+ times. But with his efficiency and emerging receiving threats, he doesn’t need to in order to provide you with that 30+ fantasy point potential. The loss of Will Dissly for the season does hurt this Seahawks redzone prowess, but Wilson is just the sort of quarterback that elevates everyone around him. So that isn’t a major concern for me.

Aaron Rodgers | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.6k | vs. OAK

I highly doubt Rodgers’ ownership eclipses 10%, but for good reason. So consider this a leverage play for tournaments. Rodgers is averaging just 265 passing YPG while completing 62.6% of his passes with only eight touchdowns through six games. Those numbers are acceptable for someone like Andy Dalton, not Aaron Rodgers. You have to feel for the guy. He’s been without his top wide out for two weeks and his other receivers have had a terrible case of the dropsies. BUT, there is hope. Davante Adams has a legitimate chance to play this week and they face a very beatable match-up at home. Oakland has allowed 7.7 YPA (8th highest) this season and have given up 10 passing TDs in their last four games. I’m sure they can’t complain too much in Green Bay right now, considering they hold a 5-1 record (with a little help from some MNF refs), but this is one of the best chances of the season for us to see some vintage Aaron Rodgers.

Jacoby Brissett | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. HOU

If you read through the “games to target” section, you know I am pretty interested in this game in general. Brissett is affordable on both sites and may be pushed into a higher passing workload this week if they are forced to play ‘keep up’ with Deshaun Watson. The Texans are allowing 22.9 DraftKings FPPG to opposing QBs this season (26 FPPG on the road) -- 6th most in the league. I’d expect Indianapolis to have a very solid game plan coming out of their bye week. The 3-2 Colts will have a great opportunity to make a statement in this crucial AFC South divisional game.

Running Backs to Target

Dalvin Cook | DK: $8k, FD: $8.3k | @ DET

Cook is coming off of his worst game of the season, but that shouldn’t be a major surprise. Philadelphia has held essentially every running back they’ve faced this season in check, and allow the 4th fewest FPPG to the position. Their secondary, on the other hand, is terrible -- so the big day for Cousins and his receivers wasn’t a huge shocker. The Vikings will face a Detroit defense playing on a short week after a frustrating, emotional Monday night loss. The Lions have been one of the worst teams at defending opposing backfields. They surrender 31 DraftKings FPPG to the position (3rd most) and are getting gashed pretty badly at 5.1 YPA. This could be a nice game for Cook in the receiving game as well, as Detroit has allowed RBs 5.8 receptions/game for 64.8 YPG. I see nothing wrong with spending up on Dalvin this Sunday.

Leonard Fournette | DK: $7k, FD: $7.9k | @ CIN

I’m seeing a ton of love come Fournette’s way this week and that attention is fully warranted. He is handling 91.5% of his team’s running back carries and targets, which trails only Christian McCaffrey (92.5%). On top of that, you really can’t beat the match-up, as Cincinnati is allowing 36.4 FPPG to RBs, which just barely trails Miami (37.2 FPPG) as the most points allowed in the league to the position. This is one of the safest match-ups I’ve written up all year. He’ll certainly be chalk, but you’ll have to fade Fournette at your own risk!

Matt Breida | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.6k | @ WAS

The Redskins allow seven receptions and 53.5 receiving YPG to the running back position. That’s really where I could see Breida excelling this week. He’ll also probably snag around a dozen rushes, but Tevin Coleman is the more likely candidate to see goal line work. Breida still plays a vital role in between the 20s on a San Francisco team that leans on their running game more than any other team in the league, rushing on 56% of their plays. How do you think the game flow will go when they play against Washington as 9.5 point favorites? All signs point towards heavy RB usage once again. I’ve mentioned it before, but Breida is one of the more underrated athletes in football and his 5.8 YPC average currently leads the NFL.

Frank Gore | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6k | vs. MIA

I do expect Devin Singletary to suit up this week but Gore should handle 15-20 touches of his own, which would be ample opportunity to produce against the league’s worst defense. What a world we live in when the Buffalo Bills have the highest team total of an NFL main slate (28.8 points) and are 17 point favorites to boot. Gore could reasonably churn out 100+ yards and two scores this week and no one on the planet would be shocked.

Wide Receivers to Target

Cooper Kupp | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.8k | @ ATL

I was actually appalled at how terrible Jared Goff and this Rams offense looked last week but they’ll get a quick bounce back opportunity when they travel to Atlanta. The Falcons allow the fourth most FPPG to WRs and just look incapable of stopping anyone through the air. Kupp still ranks second in the NFL with a 28.2% target share on 11.5 targets/game and will get an extremely positive match-up with Falcons slot CB Damontae Kazee.

DJ Chark Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $6.6k | @ CIN

Chark’s 90.9% true catch rate ranks 8th in the league and trails mostly slot WRs who tend to see more short, high-efficiency targets. Chark is also averaging 17.6 YPC and 3.11 yards per route ran -- both metrics which rank 7th in the NFL. Cincinnati will be without their top two CBs (Dre Kirkpatrick, Williams Jackson III) and possibly without starting safety Shawn Williams. Leonard Fournette is probably going to be the main focus of the Jags offense this week but Chark should still see around 7-10 targets from Gardner Minshew, which he could turn into quite an outstanding day against a beat up Cincy secondary.

TY Hilton | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.6k | vs. HOU

Hilton has shown up and shown out in 15 career games against the Texans; 81 catches, 1,530 yards (102 YPG), and nine TDs on 8.7 targets/game. Getting the ball in his hands will be Jacoby Brissett’s top priority, especially if this turns into a sort of back-and-forth shootout. Hilton should see the majority of his routes run against CB Jonathan Joseph, who is struggling a bit this year and has been targeted on 22% of routes run against him. Hilton’s $5.9k price tag on DraftKings feels like a potential steal.

John Brown | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.9k | vs. MIA

We’ll have to monitor Brown’s status after he popped up on the injury report (groin) but, assuming he plays, he’ll be a highly intriguing value target, especially if Miami CB Xavien Howard (currently questionable) doesn’t suit up. Brown leads the Bills with a 22% target share and has at least four catches and 50+ yards in every game this season. He hasn’t caught a score since his big week one (7/123/1 on 10 targets) but you have to imagine that touchdown variance will fall more in his favor sooner or later. What more favorable of a week for it to happen than this week against Miami?

Calvin Ridley | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.5k | vs. LAR

The Falcons offense spreads the ball around, with four different receivers (Julio, Hooper, Sanu, Ridley) having a target share between 15-21% while Devonta Freeman accounts for an 11% target share out of the backfield. But the whole idea behind playing Ridley this week revolves around the Rams huge trade this past week for Jalen Ramsey. We have to assume that the Rams will try to stick Ramsey on Julio for much of this game. Meanwhile, Marcus Peters has been shipped to Baltimore and Aqib Talib has been placed on IR. This could be a sneaky solid spot to roll out Ridley at low ownership. He’s scored a touchdown in four of six games and could catch his fifth on Sunday.

Tight Ends to Target

Mark Andrews | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.7k | @ SEA

Tight ends have been a weakness for Seattle this season, who gives up the fourth most fantasy points to the position. Andrews finally isn’t heading into the week on the injury report but teammate Marquise Brown has been missing practice with an ankle injury. Both Andrews and Brown account for a team leading 23% target share each. So if Brown is not in the lineup, that could be a major boost for Andrews’ fantasy ceiling this week.

Hunter Henry | DK: $4k, FD: $5.7k | @ TEN

 The Chargers wasted no time featuring Henry in his first game back since week one. He caught 8-of-9 targets for 100 yards and two scores. Now, it should be noted that the Chargers were playing from behind basically this entire game, which isn’t a guarantee to happen against Tennessee. Regardless, the Titans are pretty friendly to opposing tight ends, allowing the 12th most points to the position. Henry also benefits from his DFS salaries not getting inflated after a huge game since the Chargers played on Sunday night when week seven main slate prices were already released.

Darren Fells | DK: $3.1k, FD: $5.4k | @ IND

If you’re spending way down on tight end (particularly on DraftKings), Fells may be a viable option after averaging 11.8 FPPG over the last four games with three touchdowns. Indy gives up the third most FPPG to tight ends and while Houston does also feature another TE in Jordan Akins, Fells has played on 70% of snaps this year compared to Akins’ 61%. Obviously that’s not a huge difference, but it simply boils down to “more opportunities = more potential.”

Defensive Breakdown

San Francisco 49ers | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5k | @ WAS

 This 49ers defensive unit does look legitimate and may possibly be a top three overall defense in the league. They are averaging 3.4 sacks/game while forcing 2.4 turnovers/game. Chances are Case Keenum and this Redskins offense aren’t going to have much for ‘em.

New Orleans Saints | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.4k | @ CHI

This Saints DST has surpassed double-digit fantasy points in three of their last four games and I’d look for that to continue against a struggling Bears offense, regardless of whether Mitch Trubisky or Chase Daniel is under center. That $2,900 salary on DraftKings looks especially enticing.

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