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- Top NFL Plays Week #8 | High Scoring Affairs on the Horizon
Top NFL Plays Week #8 | High Scoring Affairs on the Horizon
Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS
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Welcome back to our week eight edition of the LineStar Weekly Pylon! We are just under a week away from the Tuesday, October 30th NFL trade deadline and some noteworthy moves have already been made. Late last week we saw the Browns move RB Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars, thereby thrusting rookie Nick Chubb into a lead role. This week, the Cowboys acquired Amari Cooper from the Raiders and the Giants appear to be in full on franchise reboot mode after trading one of the best run stuffers in the league, Damon “Snacks” Harrison, to the Lions. They also sent cornerback Eli Apple down south to the Saints, who have had their fair share of defensive backfield issues. I think the Harrison trade will ultimately have the largest fantasy impact because this will massively help Detroit’s struggles against stopping the run while also making the Giants more of a team to attack on the ground.
Looking towards this week, the high octane season rolls on and out of all 14 games on the menu, seven boast totals of 49.5 or higher -- six of which will fall on the main slate. There’s a lot to get into and plenty to break down, so let’s get into some games to attack and some top plays for this week!
Games to Target
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) | 56.5 O/U
GB: 23.5 implied points | LAR: 33 implied points
This match-up sticks out like a sore thumb, no doubt. How often do you see an Aaron Rodgers led team as a near double-digit underdog? This game actually features two top-eight overall defenses in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game but the total would absolutely not indicate that as being the case. Green Bay ranks second in the NFL in terms of passing percentage, as they have thrown on 68.2% of offensive plays. In their two road games this season that number rises to an NFL leading 73.9%. Of course, they are on the road this week, up against one of the few offenses capable of out-gunning Aaron Rodgers. Expect upwards of 50+ pass attempts from Green Bay this week. Stacking their passing attack seems like one of the more appealing tournament strategies.
The Rams are actually second to last in the NFL passing on just 51.6% of plays. Though, this isn’t surprising when you think about all of the success they have funneling touches to Todd Gurley in the run game. It’s safe to assume that the Rams will just try to get a comfortable lead and ride Gurley once again in order to keep Rodgers off the field where crazy things can tend to happen. Attacking Green Bay on the ground would appear to be their weak spot as well. The Packers are the 11th worst run defense in the league, allowing 116.5 rushing yards on the ground at 4.5 yards/carry. Though, if Green Bay forces Sean McVay and the Rams into a pass-happy approach, you may find surprisingly low ownership on Goff and his receivers in tournaments.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Oakland Raiders | 50 O/U
IND: 26.5 implied points | OAK: 23.5 implied points
This game will feature two defenses towards the bottom of the league: Indy, ranking 21st in total defense, allowing 374.9 yards/game and Oakland, ranking 26th, allowing 398.5 yards/game. The Colts appear like they may have more of a balanced offensive attack with the emergence of a healthy Marlon Mack coming off of a 159 all purpose yard day. Hilton returning from a two week absence reeling in two scores was nice to see, though they came on just four targets and 25 yards receiving. I have a feeling he may be really popular this week but I’m not sure if I’ll be buying heavily. Yes, their game last week was against Buffalo and was well in hand early on but it’s still worth noting that the Colts were able to limit the need for Luck to constantly throw the ball, as he threw for under 40 pass attempts (23) for just the second time this season. Regardless, I think each facet of the Colts' offense should be in play this week, as the Raiders allow a league worst 9.0 yards per pass attempt and on the ground they give up 4.7 yards/ carry and 131.8 yards/game rushing -- both 6th worst in the league. Reports also say there is a chance that tight end Jack Doyle returns to the field this week.
The Raiders, with Marshawn Lynch on IR and Amari Cooper traded to Dallas, will have plenty of opportunity open up for some other guys to take advantage of. Cooper was infamously inconsistent in this Raiders' offense but his 14% target share will need to be distributed somewhere between Jordy Nelson, Jared Cook and Martavis Bryant. Jalen Richard is actually second on the team with a 16% target share -- it’s yet to be seen how much Lynch’s absence should impact his usage considering Doug Martin should be handling most of the early down work. But in games where they are trailing, which should be the case this week, Richard represents a nice PPR scoring asset.
Quarterbacks to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Aaron Rodgers (DK: $6.4k | FD: $8.6k) @ LAR
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
If you’re spending up at quarterback, there’s no way I would want to talk you off of going the Mahomes route, as he essentially has a floor in the mid-20's any week he’s not playing Jacksonville. But Rodgers, who is looking healthier each week with that MCL sprain, has to be a close second favorite for me at the position. As I mentioned in the games to attack section, Green Bay is passing it a ton, especially on the road. And I fully expect about 75% of their plays on offense this week to be of the passing variety. The Rams are allowing just 227 yards passing per game, ninth fewest in the league. But let’s take a look at the quarterbacks they’ve faced starting in week one: Derek Carr, Sam Bradford, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Case Keenum and CJ Beathard; the only two respectable passing threats on that list this year being Cousins and Rivers. Coming out of their bye, Cobb and Allison are still questionable to play this week but I have a ton of interest in rolling with Rodgers whether or not either of those two suit up. If they do, even better.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Kirk Cousins (DK: $5.9k | FD: $8.3k) vs. NO
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
This pick ventures off of the main slate into the Sunday Night Football match-up. Minnesota is third in the NFL passing on 67.7% of offensive plays. Dalvin Cook is set to miss another couple of weeks and I don’t expect Latavius Murray and the ground game to get much going against the Saints and their #1 ranked rush defense which allows just 72.3 yards/game. New Orleans’ defensive struggles in the passing game is well documented, as they are allowing 27 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. This just seems like a perfect smash spot for Cousins and his receivers to have a huge outing against a Drew Brees led offense that can force the Vikings to play in a bit of a shootout in a game with a 52 point total. If I’m playing on the Thursday through Monday slate, Cousins will likely be my cash game quarterback.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Eli Manning (DK: $4.9k | FD: $6.7k) vs. WAS
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Recommending Eli honestly just feels downright dirty but I’m just not enticed by many of the low-priced quarterbacks this week. Eli is about as cheap as it gets at quarterback, however, and especially on DraftKings at under $5k, it seems very reasonable that he can return some value. The Giants, by virtue of necessity, lead the NFL passing on 68.5% of plays. Washington is a very solid defense but they’re tougher against the run (3rd allowing 87.3 yards/game) than they are the pass (13th allowing 238 yards/game). I assume they will first and foremost look to stop Saquon and force Eli to throw the ball 40+ times this week. Manning does have two performances of over 23 fantasy points in his last three games, so the upside is there and you really don’t need him to do much. But of course it’s still Eli, so proceed with caution.
Running Backs to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
James Conner (DK: $7.5k | FD: $8k) vs. CLE
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
It’s already confirmed that Le’Veon Bell didn’t report to the Steelers team meeting on Wednesday so he will not be a factor for at least another week. Now we get another full dose of James Conner who had his best fantasy performance against Cleveland back in week one where he handled 31 carries for 135 yards and two touchdowns while catching five of six targets for 57 yards. The Browns likely won’t be caught so off guard by his ability the second time around but that still should not prevent him from receiving upwards of 25 touches. The Browns allow 28.4 FPPG to running backs, so with with Conner’s stranglehold on dominant volume, you have to love the floor this week as the Steelers are at home as 8 point favorites.
Kareem Hunt (DK: $7.1k | FD: $8.1k) vs. DEN
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Hunt’s price on DraftKings seems like a bit of a goof so, barring any mid-week trade fiasco, we can likely expect him to be the highest owned running back over there this week. He’s had three monster games in the past four weeks -- one of those performances coming against the Broncos in week four where he compiled 121 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries and caught three of four targets for 54 yards. Denver is giving up the second most rushing yards a game at 148.1 yards a week at a league worst 5.3 yards per attempt. Kansas City is a 10 point home favorite and despite the gun-slinging mentality that the Chiefs offense operates under, Hunt is clearly a key component in their game plan every week. Lock and load.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Marlon Mack (DK: $5.4k | FD: $6.7k) @ OAK
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Mack has 215 yards rushing on 31 carries in the past two weeks which comes out to a superb 6.9 yards per carry average. Now that he’s healthy, he should clearly lead this backfield in touches and be the go-to guy to drain the clock when the Colts are in good position to do so. He gets an elite match-up with the Raiders' run defense, allowing 131.8 yards rushing per game at 4.7 yards per carry. They’re surrendering 28.3 FPPG to RBs and I expect Indianapolis to cover that three point spread this week, thus allowing Mack some more opportunities later in the game and (hopefully) not have to rely on Nyheim Hines to come in as a receiving threat in the backfield. He’s in the discussion as a top-10 overall play at the position this week and comes in with very affordable DFS salaries.
UPDATE: Marlon Mack did not practice Thursday. A situation worth monitoring. If he's out, Nyheim Hines would represent considerable value.
Phillip Lindsay (DK: $5.2k | FD: $6.5k) @ KC
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
The hope with Lindsay for this week would be for Royce Freeman to miss this game, as he is dealing with a high-ankle sprain. If Freeman sits, you have to like his chances of seeing an uptick in touches. Devontae Booker would no doubt be more involved as well but Lindsay would be the primary option against a Kansas City defense that has struggled against receiving backs this year and, overall, allow 33.6 FPPG to the position. In their week four match-up, Lindsay saw 12 carries for 69 yards (5.8 ypc) with a touchdown and caught both of his targets for ten yards. His only single digit (DraftKings) fantasy scoring outing came against Baltimore’s top defense. So for the most part, he has shown a great floor this year. I think, no matter what, we can lock Lindsay in for 15 touches and if Freeman is out, it could creep closer to 20. He’s not a big running back so I doubt he sees much more than that but he can still make the most of his opportunities as the Broncos look to keep up with the Chiefs.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Jalen Richard (DK: $4.2k | FD: $5.7k) vs. IND
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Richard sets up to be pretty popular this week, particularly on DraftKings with full PPR scoring, with Lynch on IR and Doug Martin still being Doug Martin. Game script should lend itself to Richard’s favor as the passing down back and as I mentioned earlier, he is second on the team with a 16% target share. The Raiders will really need meaningful contributions from Richard this week and I’ll be curious as to how usage between him and Martin shake out in and close to the redzone. Trusting any Raiders currently carries some level of risk so I can’t fully endorse rolling with Richard as a cash play just yet.
Raheem Mostert (DK: $3.8k | FD: $5.6k) @ ARI
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Mostert will fall more into play if Matt Breida is ruled out this week after aggravating an ankle sprain. Mostert has flashed some skills the past two weeks after compiling 146 yards on 19 carries (7.7 ypc) in that time span. It seems he deserves a more prominent role in this offense and one would hope a savvy coach like Kyle Shanahan would take that into consideration. The 49ers get the friendliest match-up a running back could ask for against the Arizona Cardinals this week. They are giving up 148.3 yards/game on the ground at 4.4 yards per attempts and have allowed a league leading 12 rushing touchdowns. In total, they surrender 35.4 FPPG to the running back position. So if Mostert is in line for around 12 touches or so, you’d have to love his outlook this week.
Wide Receivers to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
AJ Green (DK: $8k | FD: $8.8k) vs. TB
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Green has seen his targets rise in four consecutive weeks. He was in line for a huge night against Kansas City after a 100+ yard first half as he was about the only guy Dalton could connect with. But the game quickly fizzled away from the Bengals and they never got much going after the break. A great remedy for any offense would be to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers! The Bucs give up a league-worst 328 yards passing per game, have allowed 18 passing TD's this year and are allowing 49.5 FPPG to opposing wide receivers. Green has an elite 27% target share and the Bucs are also dead last in opponent catch percentage, allowing a 75% catch rate. I like Green to break his three week endzone drought and like him potentially as the top receiver option on the main slate, even over Antonio Brown.
Davante Adams (DK: $7.9k | FD: $8.6k) @ LAR
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
If you roll with Rodgers at QB, it’d be hard to pass up stacking Adams alongside him. You just know that Rodgers will want to win this game badly and Adams is his go to guy, receiving a target share of 27%. Adams has had two monster games back-to-back after catching 19 passes on 28 targets for 272 yards and three touchdowns in that time frame. The added attention from Rodgers could very likely be due to Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb missing time. So if either of them remain out, you’d have to expect another huge week from Adams here.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Jarvis Landry (DK: $7.2k | FD: $6.7k) @ PIT
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Landry may not have the crazy high ceiling that some other guys possess but in DFS, we have to chase volume. He gets plenty of it as the NFL’s second most targeted receiver behind only Adam Thielen. He sees 11.6 targets per game and last week he and Mayfield finally had a nice conversion rate as Landry caught 10 of 15 targets for 97 yards and a score. This is, of course, a week one rematch where Landry opened the season catching 7 of 15 targets for 106 yards in absolutely terrible weather. Pittsburgh allows the sixth most passing yards at 282 yards per game and with Cleveland as eight point road underdogs, you can expect another heavy dose of targets heading towards Landry again this week.
Emmanuel Sanders (DK: $6.5k | FD: $7.2k) @ KC
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Sanders had his worst fantasy day of the season against Kansas City in their last meeting but in every other game this year his performances have fallen anywhere between solid and incredible. He’s the NFL’s 10th leading receiver and is far and away proven to be Denver’s top option, with a target share of 24%. The Chiefs still profile as one of the best match-ups a receiver can get, as they allow 179.3 yards a game to WR's and 39.8 FPPG. The Broncos are 10 point underdogs heading into Arrow Head so expect a nice high volume day for Sanders with his elite 75.4% catch rate.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Jordy Nelson (DK: $4.7k | FD: $5.3k) vs. IND
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Ehhh, another Raider I’m hesitant to really invest heavily in but the price and opportunity just seems too ideal not to mention. It’s not like Jordy has had a bad season, with three strong games weeks three thru five. But I also wonder if he is touchdown dependent, as he only has two games with more than four catches. Of course he looks to take on the #1 WR role but with that comes more attention from defenses. I may change my tune on him later in the week but I’ll likely stick to GPP only exposure for Jordy.
Adam Humphries (DK: $3.4k | FD: $4.8k) @ CIN
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★☆☆☆
I actually don’t mind Humphries as a cheap cash target for the time being. With Godwin and Jackson essentially splitting snaps evenly, Humphries has the second highest snap count among Bucs WR's at 67.1% on the season. He’s seen 6.3 targets/game the past three games since Winston re-entered as the Bucs quarterback. With Peyton Barber banged up and in danger of missing this week, uninspiring rookie RB Ronald Jones may see most of the work out of the backfield but he’s averaging just 2.6 ypc this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Humphries is used more on shorter passes as a bit of an extension to the run game.
Tight Ends to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Travis Kelce (DK: $6.8k | FD: $7.3k) vs. DEN
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Since we are removed from the days of Gronk dominating, I find it to be a hard pill to swallow ever paying up for tight ends, particularly in cash. But Kelce might warrant some serious consideration from me this week with a nice DvP match-up with Denver. Kelce’s last double-digit target day came against the Broncos in week four when he caught 7 of 12 targets for 78 yards and a score. Based on no real data and just a gut feeling, I think he is due for a touchdown or two this week. With both Ertz and Gronk off of the main slate, it’s not too difficult to peg Kelce as the clear number one guy to spend up on at the position.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
David Njoku (DK: $4.6k | FD: $5.7k) @ PIT
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Njoku took a while to get things going last week against Tampa Bay but ultimately he came through with a 4/52/1 performance. He gets another soft match-up for tight ends, as Pittsburgh allows the third most fantasy points to the position at 19.1 FPPG. Without a reliable receiver outside of Landry, Njoku’s 20% target share is second on the team and ranks fourth at the position among all NFL TE's. Keep an eye on him though, as he has popped up on the injury report as questionable for this week with some sort of boo boo on his knee.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Chris Herndon (DK: $2.8k | FD: $5.4k) @ CHI
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Herndon saw seven targets in his last game, catching four of them for 42 yards and a score. He’s now scored in back-to-back weeks and with such a lack of receiving threats for the Jets, we should expect his involvement in the passing game to be prominent. Chicago is not really a defense you look to target but they have been somewhat generous to tight ends and have given up four touchdowns to the position. If the Bears pass rush puts quick pressure on Darnold often, it makes sense that he’d check down to his tight end quite a bit. Herndon has a place in some GPP builds.
Defensive Breakdown
Chiefs (DK: $2.6k | FD: $3.9k) vs. DEN
If you don’t want to shell out the dough for the Bears D/ST, the Chiefs are at home and have been pretty opportunistic as of late after scoring two defensive touchdowns in the last three games. When the opposition has to pass nearly every play past the first quarter just to keep pace with your offense, then there’s more room for defensive touchdown opportunity. Keenum has also thrown an interception in every game this season.
Cardinals (DK: $3.2k | FD: $3.4k) vs. SF
The Cardinals D/ST is more viable on FanDuel where they are priced pretty far down. They went for 21 points the last time they played San Francisco and despite their porous run defense, they’re getting plenty of sacks (20) and turnovers (12) on the season through seven games. You also always prefer defenses at home, which Arizona will be this Sunday.
Thursday Night Special
Jakeem Grant (DK: $3.7k / $3.8k Showdown | FD: $4.6k / $6k Single Game)
This Thursday Night match-up has “Q”, “O” and “IR” tags for damn near every wide receiver on the board! The Dolphins are hurting particularly badly after losing Albert Wilson for the season to a hip injury and Kenny Stills will miss the game with a groin injury. Jakeem Grant, who is already a major contributor on special teams as one of the NFL’s best in the return game, should now take on a sizable role for the receiving attack alongside Danny Amendola. Miami has been pretty reliant on big plays and Grant, with his 4.3 speed, can provide that spark as he has done on a couple long scores already this year. It’s no slam dunk, but if you want to get really cheeky in a Showdown/Single Game contest, stack him with the Miami D/ST and if he returns a punt or kick-off for a touchdown, you can reap double the points!
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