Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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Week eight is just on the horizon and we’re going to be set up with 12 games across the Sunday main slate. We're already seeing some dominoes fall in the trade market. Now that we're five days away from the deadline, we may be seeing some players making their final starts with their current teams. It's gonna get interesting! There are plenty of intriguing match-ups to look into for this Sunday, so I won’t waste any more time. Let’s get right into it!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

New York Giants @ Detroit Lions (-7) | 49 O/U

NYG: 21.0 implied points | DET: 28.0 implied points

NYG Off. Pace Rank: 8th | DET Off. Pace Rank: 12th

NYG PPG For/Against: 18.9/26.7 | DET PPG For/Against: 24.8/26.7

This is an appealing game for fantasy purposes for several reasons. Both teams rank inside the top half of the league in terms of offensive pace. Both teams also give up a ton of fantasy PPG, with Detroit allowing the 6th most while New York allows the 9th most. Finally, any game taking place inside a dome always adds a bit more offensive potential. The only significant injury to monitor at this time for the Giants is Sterling Shepard (concussion), who is currently questionable to suit up. The Lions obviously suffered a significant injury this past week, with Kerryon Johnson (knee) undergoing surgery and being placed on IR. This will open up things for Ty Johnson and potentially JD McKissic. But I believe, ultimately, we may simply end up seeing a heavier workload fall on Matt Stafford and the passing game. One more injury note: Darius Slay hasn’t been practicing due to a hamstring injury. If he sits, that’s a pretty significant upgrade to Giants receivers. I’ll be hitting on some other players from this game below, but this is a match-up to absolutely keep on your radar.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Rams (-13) | 48.5 O/U

CIN: 17.8 implied points | LAR: 30.8 implied points

CIN Off. Pace Rank: 3rd | LAR Off. Pace Rank: 2nd

CIN PPG For/Against: 16.3/26.6 | LAR PPG For/Against: 27.1/23.4

Again, here’s another game that isn’t too appealing from a general football perspective. But for fantasy, I think we can find some gems in this one. These two teams trail only the Arizona Cardinals in terms of offensive tempo, so we could see a very high volume of total plays here. More plays equals more opportunity for passes, catches, runs, yards, and touchdowns. That’s pretty much all it boils down to! There are no major offensive injuries to speak of either, unless you count AJ Green, who doesn’t seem like he’ll be making his season debut just yet. We can probably add a boost to Todd Gurley this week because not only is this a phenomenal match-up, but Rams backup RB Malcolm Brown has already been ruled out with an ankle injury. That will leave rookie Darrell Henderson Jr. left as the complimentary option, but Gurley should see the vast majority of the backfield touches… unless this game gets really out of hand. I am hesitant to say it, but I do believe Cincy can hang around on the scoreboard for much of this game. That 13 point spread just feels a bit too high.

Quarterbacks to Target

Deshaun Watson | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k | vs. OAK

Every quarterback is wrecking that Atlanta Falcons secondary, so I understand why Russell Wilson is the highest priced QB on both sites. But I’m completely fine with taking the slight savings and rolling out Deshaun Watson at home against an Oakland team that just got dismantled by Aaron Rodgers. The Raiders are now giving up 8.6 YPA to opposing QBs, which ranks as the second worst mark in the league, behind only Miami (9.2 YPA). That does not bode well if you’re a Raider fan, as they’ll be facing Watson, who ranks 5th in the league averaging 8.3 YPA. Watson is also a candidate to supply big plays. His 39 deep ball pass attempts (20+ air yards) are the fourth most in the NFL, and he’s completing a solid 46.2% of those passes, which ranks 9th. The Texans will likely be without Will Fuller (hamstring) this week, but Nuk Hopkins, Kenny Stills, and Keke Coutee is a perfectly capable trio of receivers against this porous secondary. Watson is a great high floor, high ceiling quarterback to roll out if you have the salary.

Matthew Stafford | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.7k | vs. DET

Stafford is probably my favorite cash game QB on the board this week, especially at that $6,100 price tag on DraftKings. He has posted a 9:3 TD:INT ratio in three home games this season while completing 67% of his passes for an averaging of 300 YPG. Stafford is also throwing down field a ton this season, with 42 deep ball pass attempts, which ranks as the second most in the league. Stafford is only completing 38.1% of those passes, but hey, at least they’re letting him throw ‘em. The Giants are giving up 8.3 YPA (fourth most) and have allowed 31.0 DraftKings FPPG to opposing QBs when on the road. As I mentioned in the “Games to Target” section, the injury to Kerryon Johnson may lead to Stafford shouldering an even heavier workload. As long as the Giants keep the score remotely close, I’d expect a 40+ pass attempt day out of Stafford.

Ryan Tannehill | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.9k | vs. TB

If you’re going cheap at the position, Tannehill probably isn’t the worst gamble to take. He’s clearly the superior passer to Marcus Mariota and I’m really not sure why it took Mike Vrabel and the Titans coaching staff six weeks to give Tannehill a shot. It’s not a large sample size, but he’s posting an 80% completion rate on 36-of-45 passes for 456 yards (10.1 YPA). Those passes came against the Broncos and Chargers, which are both tougher match-ups than the one he’ll be taking on this week in the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is surrendering 318.5 YPG through the air and 24.1 DraftKings FPPG. This is a strong pace up spot for Tennessee as well, so I’d be surprised if Tannehill doesn’t eclipse 20+ fantasy points on Sunday.

Running Backs to Target

Saquon Barkley | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.6k | @ DET

Christian McCaffrey (DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.6k) has a sub-optimal match-up on the road at San Francisco, so if I’m playing it safe with a stud RB, I’ll likely be riding with Saquon. After shaking off the rust against Arizona last Sunday following a three week absence due to an ankle injury, Barkley could be in line to post his best game of the season. Detroit is getting torn up by opposing RBs and are allowing 32.7 FPPG to the position, third most in the NFL. The Lions are also allowing 56 receiving YPG to running backs and everyone knows how deadly Barkley can be catching passes out of the backfield. Barkley’s floor and ceiling takes another step forward if Sterling Shepard misses this game.

Leonard Fournette | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.7k | vs. NYJ

I still have a few days to change my mind on this but currently, when building a cash lineup, I’d be hard-pressed to not lock in Fournette. He’s getting so much volume that he’s one of the few NFL running backs that isn’t touchdown dependent. Fournette’s 94.6% snap rate ranks third in the league and his 91% opportunity share trails only Christian McCaffrey (92.5%). He’s also been extremely active in the passing game, seeing 5.4 targets/game. That’s a great addition to his floor as Fournette will be facing off with the Jets, who allow 7.2 receptions/game and 57.3 receiving YPG to opposing running backs. With all this volume, it is wild to think Fournette only has one touchdown on the season. Once that positive regression hits, he’ll really be posting some monstrous fantasy games.

James White | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6k | vs. CLE

White, of course, isn’t a traditional running back but he’s another guy who has fallen on the wrong side of the touchdown lottery, with just one score on the season. You have to imagine the tides will shift in his favor as he possesses a slate-leading eight redzone catches over the last four weeks. He has seen at least nine targets in the last four games, which is a strong target volume for any player, but especially a running back. It’s tough to gauge just how much the addition of Mohamed Sanu and the possible return of Rex Burkhead will impact his touches and targets, but his role is pretty well solidified in this Pats offense. Nothing scares me about this Cleveland match-up, as they allow the eighth most FPPG to running backs, including 5.5 receptions/game and 49.3 receiving YPG.

Ty Johnson | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.2k | vs. NYG

While I’m a fan of the Lions passing game this week, Ty Johnson is still too affordable when accounting for the potential workload he may be given. After Kerryon Johnson went down last week after playing 11 snaps (14% snap rate), Ty Johnson saw a 64% snap rate on 49 snaps, compared to JD McKissic’s 19 snaps (25% snap rate). You have to imagine that if Kerryon Johnson had not played at all, Ty Johnson would have seen closer to a 70% snap rate. Now, after typing “snap” about a hundred times, you probably get the idea. There’s a great opportunity for Ty Johnson here against a Giants defense that permits the seventh most FPPG to RBs. The Lions are also seven point home favorites, which is typically going to lead to a positive game script for an early down running back. I’d expect 3-5 targets to head his way as well.

Wide Receivers to Target

Michael Thomas | DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. ARI

Thomas is rocking a league leading 33.6% target share this season and hasn’t scored below 16.4 DKFP in any of his seven games. That’s a pretty incredible floor even though you’re paying a premium for him. After a two week road trip, the Saints return back home to the Superdome where Thomas last caught 11-of-13 targets for 182 yards and two touchdowns. The transition from Drew Brees to Teddy Bridgewater has not downgraded Thomas’ production whatsoever. He should be in for another productive day against an exploitable Cardinals secondary (even with Patrick Peterson back in the lineup).

Tyler Lockett | DK: $7k, FD: $7.2k | @ ATL

Lockett has lined up in the slot on 72% of his routes and will match-up with Falcons slot corner Damontae Kazee, who has been targeted on 22% of routes ran against him. Atlanta has given up the 12th most FPPG to slot receivers and the 5th most FPPG to perimeter receivers, where Lockett still operates 28% of the time. This could be a big day for DK Metcalf as well, but Lockett has great consistency and could be in line for a ceiling game like the one we saw him have in week three against New Orleans (11 catches, 154 yards, TD).

John Brown | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.9k | vs. PHI

The Eagles have a terrible secondary that should be attacked almost every week where they face a competent passing attack. They’re absolutely getting toasted on the outside and have given up the most FPPG to perimeter WRs, which is where John Brown lines up on 79% of his routes. Brown has now caught at least five passes in 5-of-6 games this season. In a game that should remain close (BUF -1.5), I love the potential value and solid floor to be had from John Brown this week.

Courtland Sutton | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6k | @ IND

Sutton has posted the 11th most PPR fantasy points among WRs this year (12th most in half PPR) and that was with Emmanuel Sanders' 19% target share. Now that Sanders has been shipped off to San Fran, expect Sutton’s already solid floor to continue rising. It’s tough to put a ton of trust in multiple Joe Flacco targets, but DaeSean Hamilton (DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.8k) should also take a significant step forward in this offense. If you need a cheaper WR for GPPs, Hamilton is worth a look.

Corey Davis | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. TB

With a competent quarterback at he helm for Tennessee, we may finally see Corey Davis show off why he was worth a fifth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Davis caught 6-of-7 targets from Tannehill last week for 80 yards and a score. That was against a fairly tough Chargers secondary that allows the 23rd fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs, where Davis aligns on 69% of his routes. Now Davis will have an opportunity to play against a Bucs secondary that has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to perimeter receivers. Great potential value here and I’m really liking the Tannehill + Davis pairing if you’re looking for a cheap stack.

Tight Ends to Target

Austin Hooper | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.6k | vs. SEA

Hooper is leading all tight ends in fantasy points this season, regardless of format, so he doesn’t really need much vouching for. But with Mohamed Sanu now playing for the Pats, those six targets per game are going to need to be distributed elsewhere. While Russell Gage and Justin Hardy are candidates to take over Sanu’s snaps out of the slot in three WR sets, Hooper (82.2% snap rate) is going to be in on basically every pass play. We should see Hooper’s already strong 7.9 targets/game rise further, more towards 9 targets/game. That’s an elite threshold for a tight end. Also, hey, Seattle allows the 4th most FPPG to tight ends.

Gerald Everett | DK: $4.3k, FD: $6.1k | vs. CIN

The Rams should move the ball at will against this Cincy defense and Everett has begun to play a more significant role in the offense. Everett has seen 33 targets in the last four weeks (8.3 targets/game) and stands out as an intriguing GPP option on the week.

Josh Hill | DK: $3.2k, FD: $5k | vs. ARI

This recommendation pretty much relies on Jared Cook (ankle) missing a second consecutive game. In his absence last week, Josh Hill caught 3-of-3 targets for 43 yards and a score. At these salaries, that’s a completely acceptable stat line that you would probably be happy with. The ceiling could be higher, however, as Hill (assuming Cook is out) would be the beneficiary of the “tight end versus Arizona flowchart.” For the uninitiated, tight ends have just destroyed Arizona this year. They easily give up the most FPPG to the position (24.3 DraftKings FPPG).

Defensive Breakdown

New Orleans Saints | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. ARI

At this rate, the Patriots DST (DK: $4.3k, FD: $5k) needs to be on your radar pretty much every week but this Saints defensive unit has certainly garnered my respect as well. They have eclipsed double-digit fantasy points in four of their last five games and have held their own against quality offenses like Seattle and Dallas. The crowd is always rowdy in the Superdome and Kyler Murray has been sacked 23 times already this season, which is the fourth most among quarterbacks. There’s pretty solid potential for this Saints defense on Sunday.

Carolina Panthers DST | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.5k | @ SF

The pricing on this Panthers DST doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. They’re averaging 15.5 FPPG over their last four games and are coming in fresh out of a bye week. The ceiling is somewhat limited, considering the 49ers don’t opt to drop back and pass very much, but if I’m really in need of the savings, the Panthers feel like a pretty decent investment.

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