Top NFL Plays Week #9 | Scaring Away the Competition

October 31, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

Be sure to check out all the LineStar NFL content:

🔊  PreSnap Podcast every Monday, Thursday & Friday!

👇 Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! 👇

Well, that trade deadline day was
 disappointing. Plenty of big names were supposedly on the block but, aside from the Aqib Talib trade, no team really pulled the trigger on proposing/accepting a strong enough offer. With the Falcons, Bengals, Saints, and Rams all on their bye week, this Sunday’s main slate is whittled down to ten games. I really love the structure of these games though, with six 1:00 pm ET games and four falling in the 4:00 pm ET window. With a marquee match-up taking place between the Patriots and Ravens on Sunday Night Football, this could be a great all day NFL affair. So, let’s kick off this Halloween night and get a look ahead at all of our Sunday main slate match-ups!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders (-2) | 50.5 O/U

DET: 24.3 implied points | OAK: 26.3 implied points

DET Off. Pace Rank: 12th | OAK Off. Pace Rank: 31st

DET PPG For/Against: 25.7/26.6 | OAK PPG For/Against: 21.6/27.4

The tempo may not be incredibly fast in this game but both of these defenses have been torched throughout the year. Oakland is allowing the 3rd most FPPG this season, while Detroit checks in right behind them, giving up the 4th most FPPG. Both teams are searching for their fourth win on the year and should be looking to play aggressive in order to keep postseason aspirations rolling. The two point spread also indicates that this could very well be a sort of back-and-forth affair. On the Raider side of things, a couple of their key offensive weapons are currently listed as questionable, as Josh Jacobs and Tyrell Williams continue to nurse some injuries. Both guys gutted it out and played through their ailments against Houston last week, so if I had to guess, I imagine both guys suit up on Sunday. Detroit running back Tra Carson popped up on the injury report with a hamstring issue. We really didn’t get a clear-cut idea of how this Detroit backfield is going to operate moving forward without Kerryon Johnson (IR). The Lions gave four running backs some time on the field last week: Ty Johnson (40% snap rate), Tra Carson (30%), JD McKissic (25%), and Paul Perkins (10%). If Carson sits out, Ty Johnson and possibly JD McKissic may become usable. But for now, I’d look to stick more towards the passing game on the Lions side of things.

New York Jets (-3) @ Miami Dolphins | 42.5 O/U

NYJ: 22.8 implied points | MIA: 19.8 implied points

NYJ Off. Pace Rank: 30th | MIA Off. Pace Rank: 5th

NYJ PPG For/Against: 11.1/26.4 | MIA PPG For/Against: 11.0/34.0

Everyone probably knows the phrase “a face only a mother could love,” put in use when talking about someone who may not be
 particularly attractive. Well, this Jets/Dolphins match-up would have to be a game “only a fantasy football player could love.” Unless you’re a diehard Jets or Dolphins fan, there is absolutely no reason to tune into this game unless you have some sort of fantasy/betting stake invested. On a PPG basis, these are the two worst offenses in the NFL. However, there could be perhaps 4-to-6 touchdowns scored here, considering how bad this Miami defense is (2nd most FPPG allowed) while the Jets aren’t exactly stout either (15th most FPPG allowed). Aside from Le’Veon Bell, no offensive player is particularly expensive here, so this definitely wouldn’t be the worst place to go to in search of value.

Quarterbacks to Target

Matthew Stafford | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.9k | @ OAK

If you’re spending up at QB, it’s only slightly difficult to click on Stafford’s name when Russell Wilson costs only a few hundred dollars more. But, as odd as it may seem, Stafford may actually be the safer play. In the last two weeks, which were played without the now injured Kerryon Johnson on all but 11 snaps, Stafford has thrown for 706 yards with a 7:2 TD:INT ratio. I am a bit hesitant about the fact that he’ll be going on the road, but this is a pretty depleted Oakland defense Stafford will get to face. The Raiders have allowed the second most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season as they give up just under 300 YPG and 2.7 passing TDs/game. Stafford has attempted more deep ball passes (20+ air yards) than any other QB in the league this season, so the opportunity for huge plays only adds to his ceiling in Oakland.

Jameis Winston | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.5k | @ SEA

For the time being, Bruce Arians is sticking by Winston, despite the fact that he has turned the ball over 10 times in the last two games. The Seahawks just let Matt Schaub throw for 460 yards on them last week and haven’t exactly shut any opposing QB down in recent weeks. On the season, they’re allowing the 10th most FPPG to QBs. Winston has one of the best receiving duos in the league at his disposal and likely throws upwards of 40 passes this week. Regardless of potential turnovers, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t eclipse at least 20 fantasy points in this spot.

Derek Carr | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.3k | vs. DET

Lo and behold, Carr is leading the entire NFL in pass completion (72.1%) and gets a home match-up with the Detroit Lions, who allow the 6th most FPPG to the position. Despite completing only 18 passes last week, Carr put up his best game of the season on the road at Houston, throwing for 285 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. A bit of a shootout could definitely go down in this game, and I’ve already expressed my interest in both of these teams above. So if you need a cheaper QB to deploy, why not roll the dice on Carr?

Running Backs to Target

Dalvin Cook | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9k | @ KC

There haven’t really been safer or more dominant fantasy assets this season than Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. You’ll spare a few hundred dollars by dropping down to the latter, so that’s really the only reason Cook gets the edge this week in my book. Cook has found the endzone at least once in 7-of-8 games this season. The only game he didn’t score, he accounted for 218 all-purpose yards. Kansas City will likely be without Patrick Mahomes for at least another week, so the Vikings enter enemy territory as 2.5 point favorites. We should fully expect 20-to-25 touches for the star Minnesota back, as he’ll face a Chiefs defense that permits the second most FPPG to RBs. Fire him up wherever you can afford him.

Le’Veon Bell | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7k | @ MIA

Bell came out and expressed some displeasure about his lack of touches lately. You could figure that since the Jets trailed heavily in their last two games, that could be a prime reason behind handing the ball off to him just 23 times in that span. You could also assume that the Jets weren’t going to run him into the ground if they had intentions of fielding trade offers for him, which they were in fact doing. Without a strong enough proposal made, the trade deadline came and went and now the “squeaky wheel can get some grease.” The match-up couldn’t be better either, as the Dolphins surrender the most FPPG to opposing running backs. After a pretty rough stretch of games to start the season, this is an opportunity for Bell to possibly have his best game to date in a Jets uniform.

Devin Singletary | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6.1k | vs. WAS

I would never wish injury upon anyone, but if Frank Gore would like to take a vacation out of Buffalo for a week or two, I wouldn’t be upset. I really just want to see what Singletary can do when given a heavier workload. For now, Singletary is a risky DFS option but you have to figure there’s breakout potential one of these days. Last week, he out-snapped Frank Gore 42 to 18, a 68% and 29% snap rate respectively. Some of that may have been due to game script, as the Bills trailed most of the day against the Eagles. Singletary still only had three carries and caught 4-of-6 targets, but he did make his way into the endzone. Washington is a much better match-up than Philly was last week, as the Redskins allow the 5th most FPPG to RBs. Buffalo is a 9.5 point home favorite so Josh Allen and the receivers may not be required to do too much work this Sunday.

Jaylen Samuels | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | vs. IND

If James Conner and Benny Snell Jr. both end up missing this game, you have to imagine Samuels would be the chalkiest play on the board. It’ll be chalk I’ll happily eat. Samuels is a three down capable back who has proven in the past that he can handle a starter’s workload, as he was called upon to do in several games towards the end of last season. The Colts aren’t an ideal team for a running back to face (7th fewest FPPG to RBs), but given Samuels’ prices, the potential volume outweighs any match-up concern.

Wide Receivers to Target

Chris Godwin | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.2k | @ SEA

We’re missing quite a few elite wide receivers on this main slate, either due to teams being on an off week, or simply not falling onto the 1:00 and 4:00 pm ET kickoff windows. That will leave Godwin among the most expensive options on the day -- but he could be worth these prices. After a fairly quiet 43 yard day last week, while catching 4-of-8 targets, I believe we could anticipate a better outing for Godwin this go ‘round. Godwin is Tampa Bay’s primary slot receiver, where he aligns 66% of the time. He’ll be running routes against Seahawks slot corner Jamar Taylor, who opposing quarterbacks have targeted on 30% of routes ran against him. Godwin makes for a great option to spend up on in GPPs and will likely carry fairly low ownership.

Allen Robinson II | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.2k | @ PHI

If you’re not at least trying to attack this Philadelphia secondary somewhere most weeks, you’re missing out on one of the best match-ups in football. The Eagles have been pretty atrocious against opposing wide receivers, and allow the most FPPG to the position. Robinson has seen at least seven targets in every game this year and leads the Bears, by a considerable margin, with a 26% target share. The Eagles defense is very stout against the run, so expect passes to be funneled to these Bears receivers -- with Robinson being the best bet to pour in a big day in the box score
 as long as Mitch Trubisky can show some semblance of accuracy.

Danny Amendola | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6k | @ OAK

There is more appeal for Amendola in full PPR formats but if he happens to find the endzone, the yards and receptions have been there to make him usable outside of full PPR as well. In the last two weeks, Amendola has caught 16-of-19 targets for 200 yards on the nose. Might his uptick in usage be a byproduct of Kerryon Johnson’s injury? Perhaps. With Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. stretching the field on the outside, Amendola and his 8.9 yard aDOT out of the slot helps create a viable way to move the chains. Oakland has given up the 7th most FPPG to slot receivers this year, so I don’t mind looking Amendola’s way in search of value.

DaVante Parker | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.8k | vs. NYJ

Parker has three touchdowns within the last four weeks with 26 targets in that span. The Dolphins offense is starting to show signs of having a pulse! Parker runs 68% of his routes on the perimeter, where the Jets have allowed the 13th most FPPG this season. Parker is another usable value receiver, with legitimate touchdown upside.

Tight Ends to Target

Darren Waller | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | vs. DET

Tight end is somewhat ugly this week, and it’s a pretty volatile position to predict regardless. But if you’re going for a pricey option, Waller stands out as much as anyone. He has an 88.5% true catch rate this year, so his two catch day on eight targets last week seems like it will definitely be more of an outlier. His team-leading 26% target share is a massive number for a tight end and results in him having one of the highest ceilings among all TEs in any given week. He’ll get a pretty solid match-up against a Lions team that allows the 11th most FPPG to the tight end position and gave up touchdowns to Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph in the last two weeks.

Jonnu Smith | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.5k | @ CAR

Delanie Walker is still not practicing as of Thursday, so Smith could roll into Sunday as the Titans top tight end. Last week, Smith played on 73% of snaps and hauled in 6-of-7 targets for 78 yards and a score. Assuming Walker sits, this wouldn’t be the worst option to go with in the mid-range.

Noah Fant | DK: $3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. CLE

Fant commanded a season-high eight targets last week but the obvious storyline here is the fact that Joe Flacco will be sidelined for several weeks with a neck injury. This will lead to Brandon Allen, a 2016 sixth round pick, receiving his first taste of NFL action. Tight ends are typically the safety nets for inexperienced QBs, so perhaps we’ll see Fant garner 6+ targets for a second consecutive week.

Defensive Breakdown

Seattle Seahawks | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.9k | vs. TB

While I do like Jameis Winston’s chances of having a strong fantasy outing, I can’t ignore the fact that he has had those TEN turnovers in the last two games. The Seahawks are a long way removed from the “Legion of Boom” days, but at home I still see some upside, especially if Jameis comes out the tunnel and has one of “those games.”

Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. IND

The Steelers defense has stepped their game up and have amassed double digit fantasy points in five consecutive games. They’re at home, priced down, and don’t have an incredibly tough opponent to contend with. They’re getting sacks, fumbles, and picks week in and week out. I’m liking them a lot from a value perspective.

Weekly NFL Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We’ll be hosting a weekly NFL freeroll on DraftKings, so remember to join!

Congrats to last week's winners:

1st: Rodalmighty21 | 210.98

2nd: damacklion | 205.12

3rd: jcoov21 | 191.08

DM us on Twitter to claim your prize!

  • 1st place: $10 via PayPal

  • 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

  • BONUS - If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!

🚹 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚹

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.