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- Top NFL Plays Week #9 | Trick or Treat Yourself in Week Nine!
Top NFL Plays Week #9 | Trick or Treat Yourself in Week Nine!
Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS
And be sure to check out the new weekly LineStar PreSnap Podcast
Man, week nine already, huh? I’ve only just realized how fast this season is flying by. Though, thinking back, I feel I have that same epiphany around this time every year. Anyone else? Nonetheless, there is plenty to look into and break down this week. I’m sure most of you are well aware of the noteworthy moves that teams made before the Tuesday 4 pm ET trade deadline. The major ones of course featured Golden Tate going to Philly and Demaryius Thomas heading down South to the Texans. These two moves will undoubtedly have an effect on our NFL DFS approach this week and I will certainly discuss at least a couple of the affected players and their situations below. So, with plenty to get to I’ll keep the intro short. Let’s look at some games and players to target! And also, for all those reading this on Wednesday, Happy Halloween! Let’s avoid the tricks and find ourselves some treats for this fine week nine slate of games, shall we?
dunununun-nununuh!
Games to Target
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints (-1.5) | 60 O/U
LAR: 29.25 implied points | NO: 30.75 implied points
Here we have one of the best environments for DFS that we have had all season. We get two of the top three scoring offenses in the NFL facing off in a borderline “pick ‘em” game with a total that hits a very rare mark in the NFL of 60. It’s difficult to rule out nearly any offensive threat between these two teams. The Rams defense can certainly be stout at times but the fact that Drew Brees and the Saints are at home make me much more confident that this game can easily become the shootout that it is projected to be. On the season, the Rams allow the 8th fewest total yards per game (331.4) and the 6th fewest points (19.4 pts/gm). The addition of DE Dante Fowler for the Jaguars gives them another talented player for their intimidating defensive line but the Saints have the weapons to counter any defense in the league.
On the opposite side, New Orleans' pass defense remains their weakness. Though they have improved consistently as the season has progressed, they are still allowing the 5th most passing yards per game right at 300 yards a week. They also still boast the number one rush defense, allowing just 74.1 yards/game on the ground. Of course, Todd Gurley exists and Sean McVay’s passion to get the ball in his hands knows no bounds and cares nothing about how strong the Saints are on the ground, defensively. Getting this game right will be a major key to success this week, as a ton of ownership will land here in all formats.
Kansas City Chiefs (-10) @ Cleveland Browns | 51 O/U
KC: 29.75 implied points | CLE: 21.25 implied points
In the last seven weeks the Chiefs have played against teams that rank no lower than 13th in offensive pace of play. This week they’ll face off with their most up-tempo opponent to date, as Cleveland ranks third in the NFL running a play every 25.54 seconds. Obviously, this will be the first week we get to see what the Browns' new-look offense deploys after the firing of HC Hue Jackson and OC Todd Haley, but as double digit home underdogs, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they aren’t in an up-pace game of catch-up. If they continue to play fast, that just means more opportunity here for the Chiefs' offense to run more plays, and we all know how lucrative that can be in DFS.
Defensively, the Browns are giving up the 5th most yards per game: 414.5 (275.6 yds/gm passing - 7th most, 138.9 yds/gm rushing - 5th most). They’re also allowing 26.3 points per game which is the 9th most in the league. The Chiefs lead the NFL with an average of 36.3 points a week, so to no surprise you, should be able to make a case for anyone on that side of the ball as a viable play. The Browns may not feature anyone you’d like to trust for cash games but we know the task they have ahead and they will need to play aggressive all day long. Kansas City’s defense still gives up the 2nd most yards a game in the NFL: 432.4 (304.8 yds/gm passing -- 4th most, 127.6 yds/gm rushing -- 8th most). Whether Cleveland can come close to presenting themselves as a threat is yet to be seen but the opportunity will be there for some guys in the orange helmets to see considerable volume.
Quarterbacks to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Cam Newton (DK: $6.6k | FD: $8.6k) vs. TB
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
If you haven’t been targeting this Bucs defense this year with almost any high volume player on the other side then, no offense, but you’ve been playing 2018 NFL DFS incorrectly. The Tampa Bay defense allows a league worst 468.6 yds/gm and give up the 7th most points at 28.7 pts/gm. Their 318 yards allowed per game passing and 8.8 YPA are both the second worst as well. This is a dream spot for Newton who has had a very strong fantasy season but only averages 235.1 yards a game passing and has just one game over 275 yards through the air this year, which, coincidentally, came against a divisional opponent in Atlanta in week two. Though, it’s well known that Newton adds a ton of value with his legs, as he averages 8.9 rushes per game for 44.1 yards. The rushing yardage alone is essentially worth more than an additional passing touchdown. And we know he’s not afraid to call his own number near the goal line with his 4 TD's on the ground thus far. This Panthers' offense is really starting to click now that everyone is fully healthy and acclimated. Scoring 36 points last week against the Ravens should not be ignored. We can easily anticipate a huge day for Newton on Sunday.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Jared Goff (DK: $6k | FD: $8.4k) @ NO
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Goff will always be in play when facing an offense that can keep up with the Rams and as we went over above when previewing this game, that looks to be the case this week as they are slight underdogs. I won’t run over the Saints defensive numbers again since they are posted higher up but this is clearly a friendly secondary to attack. My only hesitancy with Goff is the fact that he is on the road in a tough environment. His home/away fantasy point splits through eight games this year, with four home games and four away games, are not pretty. By DraftKings scoring, he is averaging 30.2 points at home and 15.4 points away. His completion percentage also drops from 72.1% at home to 62.4% away. Some of his fantasy production struggles on the road can be explained by either poor game flow, the Rams leaning heavily on Todd Gurley or a combination of both. Though with a shootout expected and New Orleans boasting an elite run defense, my optimism remains high for Goff to be productive. He may also have his usual trio of receivers fully intact with Cooper Kupp looking optimistic to play this Sunday.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Ryan Fitzpatrick (DK: $5.5k | FD: $7.1k) @ CAR
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Welp, Fitzmagic is back on the menu folks. After frustrations with Jameis Winston giving away the ball as if it were covered in the bubonic plague (14 turnovers in 3.5 games) the switch back over to Fitzpatrick was imminent and hell if he doesn’t make things exciting, eh? When your team’s defense is as incapable as Tampa Bay’s is, you simply cannot allow them to have to get back on the field for as many extra possessions as Winston was allowing. I imagine the Bucs stick with Fitzpatrick for the foreseeable future but there is some slight risk of Winston re-entering under center if he happens to really struggle. But the Panthers represent a soft enough match-up as they allow the 16th most passing yards at 255.1 yds/gm and in the past four games, they are giving up two passing scores a week. Tampa Bay still has one of the better receiving corps in the NFL and Fitzpatrick has proven what he can do with those guys at his disposal already. They also pass the ball on 64.8% of offensive plays -- the 8th highest rate in the league. Fitz is a borderline cash play and in a game that sports the third highest total of the week (second highest on the main slate) of 54.5 points, you should certainly target him for GPPs.
Running Backs to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
Kareem Hunt (DK: $7.7k | FD: $8.5k) @ CLE
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Hunt comes in off of another strong game despite not getting a ton going on the ground in week eight against Denver. He still found the endzone for the tenth time this season. Predicted gameflow and a juicy match-up makes him a great play once again this week. As mentioned above, Cleveland is surrendering 138.9 yds/gm rushing (5th most) and they just got demolished by James Conner for 212 all purpose yards and two scores. The Browns give up 30.5 (DraftKings) FPPG to RB's and Hunt is on a streak of three games in a row catching five passes on six targets a week. The only feasible way I can see Hunt not scoring well this Sunday is if the Chiefs are up by 21+ at halftime (possible) or an injury comes into play. Blowouts and injuries are impossible to predict, so if we’re just left to look at the stats and data then Hunt needs to be on your radar in all formats.
Alvin Kamara (DK: $7.3k | FD: $8k) vs. LAR
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Todd Gurley is intentionally left out here because you don’t need me to tell you every week that he’s a great play. No one at the position has a ceiling like Gurley’s but Kamara can come pretty damn close and he’s heavily discounted in comparison. This past week against the Vikings, we saw Kamara put out a performance more in line with some of his early season Mark Ingram-less games. On the season, he really only has one truly dud performance which came against a strong Washington defense. But if you remember, that was the night Drew Brees was set up to break the NFL all-time passing yards record and things quickly turned ugly for the Redskins without Kamara needing to do much. It was also Ingram’s first game back and I’m sure they were fine with limiting Kamara’s touches a bit after a heavy workload through the first four games. Kamara was 8th in the NFL last week with a touch percentage of 37.7% on 20 touches while Ingram came in 16th with a 30.2% touch percentage on 16 touches. We know Kamara can have huge games with Ingram still involved; we saw it several times last season. He is a major leverage play towards the top of RB pricing and should be a premiere GPP target in this high scoring environment come Sunday afternoon.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Phillip Lindsay (DK: $5.5k | FD: $6.7k) vs. HOU
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
This is mostly contingent on whether or not Royce Freeman sits out another week with an ankle injury, but if he does, Lindsay should land back on our DFS radar once again. He played really well versus Kansas City, piling up 95 yards on 18 carries (5.3 ypc) with a score and caught all three of his targets for 17 yards. His 21 touches will likely be his ceiling due to his 5’8”, 190 lb frame but at his current DFS prices and his explosive running style, that would be plenty for him to return value this week in a truly featured role. Houston is a tough defense to attack on the ground, allowing the 7th fewest rushing yards a game at 95.1 and just 3.6 ypc but they do allow about 6 receptions for close to 40 yards a game to RB's. Some of the work will go to Devontae Booker, who saw 13 total touches last week including one more target than Lindsay, but Lindsay will almost certainly see any goal line work and has shown a pretty reliable floor for most of this season. It’s also unclear how the trading away of Demaryius Thomas will ripple down into Denver’s run game and overall offensive game plan but it’s hard to imagine it will affect Lindsay negatively at all.
Update: Royce Freeman is not practicing Wednesday.
Latavius Murray (DK: $5.k | $6.7k) vs. DET
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Murray is another running back play whose viability is contingent with the status of his teammate, Dalvin Cook. There’s no official word this early in the week on Cook’s status for Sunday but I find it hard to imagine with the Vikings week ten bye coming up that they’ll feel the need to bring him back in any capacity against Detroit. Murray has surpassed 20 DraftKings fantasy points in three consecutive weeks and most recently he has gotten involved in the passing game, with five receptions for 39 yards on six targets versus New Orleans. The Lions have been a team to attack on the ground all season and despite the acquisition of elite run stuffer Damon Harrison (played 62% of snaps in his Detroit week 8 debut), the Seahawks still racked up 176 rushing yards against them on 42 carries (4.2 ypc). One man can’t totally alleviate a struggling run defense that, on the year, is allowing the second most rushing yards a game at 144.6 yards for 5.1 ypc. Minnesota is a pass-first team but Murray will have a lead back role secured if Cook sits again and will be in line for around 20 touches in a favorable home match-up as 4.5 point favorites and an implied team total of 27 points. There’s just too many positive indicators for Murray to not be considered a strong play.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Duke Johnson Jr. (DK: $3.8k | FD: $5.2k) vs. KC
Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Duke Johnson Jr.’s usage in this offense up until this point has been pretty awful to say the least. I am hopeful with the coaching changes that he’ll begin to see more opportunities moving forward, as he has been inside the top five in terms of receiving by a running back each of the past two seasons. Considering Kansas City is on the docket this week and has given up the most receiving yards to running backs this year with 551 yards surrendered, the signs only point positively for Duke as the Browns will most definitely be playing from behind. I don’t think any Browns could be considered safe for cash until we see how they look for a week or two but Johnson Jr. looks like a nice low-owned GPP sleeper.
Elijah McGuire (DK: $3k | FD: $4.9k) @ MIA
Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Drifting into total punt territory, McGuire will be eligible to return from injured reserve for the Jets this week and has been practicing for the past two weeks. If reports come out and say he is essentially 100%, then I’ll have some interest in him in tournaments, particularly on DraftKings where he is the stone minimum and has more upside with PPR scoring. McGuire is a talented second year RB whose skill set coaches have compared to LaDanian Tomlinson -- an audacious and premature comparison, no doubt, but it shows a certain confidence for a team that is in desperate need for play makers. So the thought here is that he could take over, essentially, all of Bilal Powell’s (IR - neck) previous workload. If he suits up this week, the scope of his involvement will be uncertain, so tread lightly with any potential exposure.
Wide Receivers to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
DeAndre Hopkins (DK: $8.3k | FD: $8.6k) @ DEN
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
With Will Fuller out for the year with a torn ACL, Demaryius Thomas picking up a brand new playbook and Keke Coutee possibly returning off of a hamstring injury, it seems there is not much stopping Hopkins from seeing all of the targets Deshaun Watson is willing to send his way this Sunday. Hopkins opened up the year seeing double digit targets in his first five games but hasn’t cracked higher than the eight target mark in their past three tilts. I expect the double digit target drought to end due to all of the aforementioned circumstances. Denver is not easy on opposing passing attacks, as they rank 11th in the NFL allowing 237.5 passing yards a game. But if you’ve seen Hopkins play, you know he is certified match-up proof. He leads the Texans with a monstrous 31.4% target share and is second in the NFL with 17 redzone targets. Week to week, he has arguably the highest ceiling in the league at the position and is firmly in play this week, though I will likely keep my exposure to tournaments.
Michael Thomas (DK: $7.6k | FD: $8.6k) vs. LAR
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
With Brees at home this week, the confidence I have in a great outing from Michael Thomas only rises. After a torrid start to the year, Thomas’ production has cooled off considerably but I wonder how much of that can be attributed to only playing at home once in their last five games. His target share still sits at an elite level at 27.1% and he leads the league with an insane 90.6% catch rate. This could be a spot where he has potential for close to 15 targets which would, in all likelihood, result in a hell of a stat line. I love his touchdown potential here as well, as he is 5th in the NFL with 15 redzone targets. Between all of that and the potential game environment against the Rams, it’s hard to pass him up this week.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
Devin Funchess (DK: $5.6k | FD: $6.4k) vs. TB
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
D.J. Moore is sort of the “flavor of the week” in Carolina after having his best game of his rookie campaign last Sunday. But in this match-up with Tampa Bay, I’ll continue to favor Funchess who has been very solid for much of the year. Funchess leads the team with a 23.2% target share and in redzone targets with nine. He will see about as favorable of an opponent a wide receiver could hope for against the Bucs. Funchess remains very affordable in the middle range of pricing largely due to a lack of any real “explosion” games so far. His single game yardage high on the season sits at just 77 yards but sooner or later he will pop off a 100+ yard game and this would be the easiest week to make such a prediction.
Kenny Golladay (DK: $5.5k | FD: $6.2k) @ MIN
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
With Golden Tate leaving town, he leaves his team leading 26.6% target share behind, left to be distributed between the rest of the Lions' pass catchers. Golladay and Marvin Jones owners in season-long fantasy football rejoice. Golladay was off to a very nice start to the season up until two games ago. In that span he has seen only three targets. That is certainly not going to be the norm moving forward. Minnesota isn’t as daunting of a match-up on paper as one may expect. On the year they rank a middling 15th in passing yards given up, allowing 244.6 yds/gm and allowing the 6th most yards per attempt at 8.1 yards. We’ll see if Xavier Rhodes suits up for this game after missing the Vikings' last game. If he plays, it’s unclear if he will mostly shadow Golladay or Jones, so keep an eye on any news there. As of now (assuming he plays), I would predict the Vikings would focus the more veteran receiver in Jones but this is just speculation. Regardless, I feel at least one of these two receivers winds up with a big day.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Tre’Quan Smith (DK: $4.2k | FD: $5.1k) vs. LAR
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Oy vey, another play from this game? Sure, why not?! He makes a great pivot off of a guy I’m getting ready to mention, as his lack of production since his breakout game against Washington will likely lead people to look past him. With Ted Ginn on the IR shelf, Smith has seen his snap count rise in the Saints' last three games going from 67%, to 73% and up to 77% last week. Smith will look to fill the big play void that Ginn leaves open, so the potential is huge for the rookie if the Saints and Rams produce a shootout.
Courtland Sutton (DK: $3.9k | FD: $5.5k) vs. HOU
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Well, I’m sure no one is surprised here as Sutton is set to be one of the chalkiest options of the week as he looks to take on a larger role with the Demaryius Thomas trade finalized. Thomas was second on the team with a 19.5% target share. Much of that will now be distributed and increase the target share of Sanders (23.9%) and Sutton (13.7%). Sutton has flashed plenty of big play ability this year, as his 19.1 yards per catch ranks third in the NFL and trails only home-run threats DeSean Jackson (22.8) and Tyrell Williams (21.4). Sutton is limited a bit by the quarterback play of Case Keenum but with the added volume to add to his ability as a deep threat, this just seems like a lock and load week for the rookie.
Tight Ends to Target
💲💲💲 High Salary 💲💲💲
George Kittle (DK: $5.6k | FD: $6.8k) vs. OAK
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
I’ll venture into the Thursday Night Football match-up for a high end tight end play this week. At a position that will very often burn you with low production or an outright goose egg (looking at you Njoku and Uzomah) Kittle has been largely consistent this season. He’s seen between six and nine targets in every week but one and dominates his team’s target share at 23.1% (Garcon is the next closest with 15.7%). Oakland isn’t particularly strong against TE's, allowing 14.2 FPPG to the position. If he’s in the player pool for your targeted slate, Kittle makes for a fine play with a solid floor and great upside. Do note, however, that CJ Beathard is currently questionable for the game on Thursday. I’d knock Kittle down a bit in terms of expected production but not by much. The 49ers will still be throwing against a poor Oakland defense and currently maintain a projected team total of 24.5 points.
💲💲 Mid Salary 💲💲
OJ Howard (DK: $4.3k | FD: $6k) @ CAR
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
There is a good chance Howard tops out as the week’s highest owned tight end and it’s hard to argue as he has posted solid outings in five out of seven games started this year. He’s an incredibly gifted athlete and is the most efficient player at his position on a per target basis by a long shot. Howard is, however, fifth in the pecking order on this Bucs' offense with a target share of just 11.3%. But Carolina is one of the friendliest match-ups a tight end can get, as they are last in the NFL, allowing 19.6 FPPG to the position. Ultimately, unless you just want to completely punt at tight end, Howard seems viable in all formats. But understand, the risk for a dud exists for essentially anyone not named Ertz or Kelce.
💲 Low Salary 💲
Hayden Hurst (DK: $2.6k | FD: $4.3k) vs. PIT
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
I really believe Hurst is about to take over this position in Baltimore, who has been previously shuffling around tight end usage pretty evenly between three to four guys. Last week, Maxx Williams was a healthy scratch which led to Hurst seeing his highest snap count of the season. His snap count has been trending up in every game since he returned from a preseason injury in week five, going from a 24% snap count his first two weeks, to 26% and finally up to 44% last week. Hurst can be a major redzone weapon and is very athletic for his size. Expect the first-round rookie draft pick to start seeing an uptick in targets and more time on the field very soon. This week against Pittsburgh presents a favorable tight end match-up as they allow 18.2 FPPG to the position.
Defensive Breakdown
Houston Texans (DK: $3k | FD: $4.7k) @ DEN
Case Keenum is the 5th most sacked QB in the NFL this season (taken 22 sacks) and has thrown an interception in every game. In the past five games, the Texans have accounted for 14 sacks and 11 turnovers (six INTs, five DFRs). They feel like a high floor option if you’re not looking to spend up on the Bears who are likely set to face Nathan Peterman.
Buffalo Bills (DK: $2.3k | FD: $3k) vs. CHI
As a salary saving option, you can give the Bills a whirl. They’re at home and face off against Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky has put up some huge games this year but he’s still a young QB and can be prone to make errant passes. The Bills are honestly not a bad defense and have three games scoring double digit fantasy points. They just get no help from their offense… ever. I doubt they crack 5% ownership and could be a nice way to both save some salary and differentiate yourself in tournaments at a DFS “position” that is even more volatile than tight ends.
Thursday Night Special
Jalen Richard (DK: $4.9k / $7.8k Showdown | FD: $5.7k | $10.5k Single Game)
Richard is set to be a check-down machine in an offense lacking many down field receiving threats and will be trailing in perhaps every game this year. This week the Raiders are three point road underdogs, even to the lowly 49ers. In week 8, Richard was 14th in the entire league with a target share of 28.6%. Think of him as a poor man’s James White that just isn’t scoring touchdowns. The 49ers can be susceptible to receiving RB's, as they allow 6.3 receptions for 48.4 yards a game to the position. Richard actually leads the team with a 20.8% target share and with all that volume, he is sure to break one loose for a score at some point! Surely, I say!
Weekly NFL Freeroll
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