Top NFL Plays | Wildcard Weekend Edition 🏆

January 03, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS

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Hello once again football fans. I hope everyone had a great New Year’s! With 2019 rolling in, the playoffs have arrived and we have four games to lock our focus onto this weekend! For the purpose of this newsletter, I’ll be using the complete Saturday through Sunday slate salaries for both sites. There’s a plethora of players popping up on the injury reports for the eight teams playing this weekend but many of those missing practices or getting in limited work are mostly for maintenance reasons. Every team should pretty much be at full strength. At first glance, the Indianapolis vs. Houston game seems to be the most appealing game to stack, as it easily has the highest total (48.5) with just a 1.5 point spread falling in the Texans favor. The three other games fall between a 41 and 43.5 implied point total with the Bears being the heaviest favorite on the weekend at 5.5 points. Of course, with just four games on the docket we’ll need to give consideration to any player that is a candidate for decent volume. Let’s jump straight into the picks!

Quarterbacks to Target

Andrew Luck (DK: $6.4k, FD: $8k) @ HOU

If it wasn’t for the historically explosive season of Patrick Mahomes, Luck would have claimed the crown as the NFL’s 2018 passing touchdowns leader but he instead finished runner-up, tossing 39 scores in the regular season. He’ll travel to Houston to face the Texans whom he has had two very strong performances against already this season. In those two games (week 4 and week 14) Luck has combined for 864 yards and six touchdowns against one interception. Houston’s pass defense didn’t show a ton of promise towards the end of the season after allowing three quarterbacks (one of those being Luck) to throw for more than 397 yards within their final five games. Houston’s pass rush is their real strength but the Colts’ O-Line has been doing an excellent job protecting Luck this season, as he has only been sacked 18 times. In the highest total game on the weekend, I’d look for another strong performance here from Luck despite playing on the road.

Dak Prescott (DK: $5.5k | FD: $7.5k) vs. SEA

Nick Foles will be the only other starting quarterback to garner a cheaper price tag on either site this week, just below Dak Prescott. When playing at home this season, Prescott has put up a respectable fantasy outing in pretty much every game -- scoring between 14.9 and 30.4 fantasy points in every game played in Jerry’s World. There’s always a chance that Ezekiel Elliot snatches up all of the touchdowns but Dak has accounted for at least two scores in every home game this season but one (vs. NYG way back in week three). It’s also well known that the addition of Amari Cooper has bolstered Prescott’s ceiling as well. If you’re not looking to spend up at the position, I believe Prescott should give you a solid floor with legitimate upside when the Cowboys kick-off in primetime on Saturday. Aside from facing Patrick Mahomes in week 16 (273 yards, 3 TDs), the Seattle secondary hasn’t been tested too much by tough opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks (Josh Rosen, Nick Mullens twice and a struggling Kirk Cousins).

Running Backs to Target

Ezekiel Elliot (DK: $9k | $8.8k) vs. SEA

With Melvin Gordon a bit banged up and drawing a tough Baltimore defense, Elliot would appear to be the clear candidate to spend up on among running backs this week. He should be coming in fresh after getting week 17 off to rest. Though he didn’t find the endzone in his first meeting with Seattle this season, he still racked up 127 yards on just 16 carries (7.9 ypc) and saw a healthy eight targets. Seattle has been one of the worst defenses on a yards per carry basis this year as well -- allowing the third most yards per rush to opponents (4.9 YPA). With Elliot’s new found involvement in the passing game (93 targets - 5th among all NFL RBs) to go along with his consistent workload on the ground, he’ll likely be one of the highest floor options on the slate. Plenty of reasons to spend up for him here.

Chris Carson (DK: $6.8k | FD: $7.5k) @ DAL

Carson has had himself quite the breakout season after amassing over 1,300 yards of total offense. He’s the lead dog in the NFL’s most run-heavy offense, as 52.8% of Seattle’s plays are of the rushing variety. While he wasn’t ultra efficient, the Seahawks made it a point to get Carson the ball in their first meeting with the Cowboys where he saw 32 carries for 102 yards (3.2 YPC) and a touchdown. Carson has consistently seen 20+ touches in every game for the last month and I’d be surprised if Pete Carroll goes away from what has been working for them. The match-up isn’t ideal, as the Cowboys boast the 5th best run defense (94.6 Ru/YPG) but this may be a case where volume trumps efficiency. Mike Davis is currently questionable but expected to play. If he does happen to miss this week, expect a couple additional touches to fall to Carson as well.

Gus Edwards (DK: $4.2k | FD: $7.2k) vs. LAC

His price is a bit restrictive on FanDuel but on DraftKings, Edwards has a chance to post some value at $4.2k. He’ll be losing out on some rushing attempts to Kenneth Dixon and Lamar Jackson but Edwards has been posting some nice numbers lately, averaging between 5.5 and 6.6 YPC in each of the last three games. The Chargers have been giving up a ton of production to running backs lately as well, allowing 32.1 FPPG to RBs in their last four. The Ravens are the third most run-heavy team in the league with rushes on 48.2% of offensive plays. Despite the lack of PPR upside, Edwards has the ability to pay off his modest DraftKings salary even if he sees only about 15 touches.

Darren Sproles (DK: $4.1k | FD: $5.5k) @ CHI

This is a bit of long shot but the Eagles will need someone to step up if their more “traditional” running backs struggle against the league’s No. 1 run defense (80.0 Ru/YPG) and Sproles has shown in recent weeks that he still has some wiggle left in him out of the backfield. This is also set to be Sproles’ final season, so you can be assured that he’s going to make the most of any opportunity he gets in hopes of suiting up for at least one more game. If the Eagles fall behind early, which is a possibility as 5.5 point road underdogs, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few additional targets come his way.

Wide Receivers to Target

DeAndre Hopkins (DK: $8.7k | FD: $8.8k) vs. IND

Hopkins is easily the costliest receiver on both sites but it’s completely justified after another dominant season (115 receptions, 1,572 yards, 11 touchdowns, zero drops). Hopkins also had one of his best single game performances of the season against the Colts back in week four, totaling 169 yards on 10 catches (12 targets) and a touchdown. Hopkins leads the NFL with a massive 32% target share and had double-digit targets in each of his final five games to close out the regular season.

Doug Baldwin (DK: $6.2k | FD: $7.2k) @ DAL

Baldwin isn’t exactly a safe play this week but he has shown down the stretch of the season that he is still capable of churning out impressive box scores. He currently carries a “questionable” tag, like he has much of the season, but all expectations point towards him suiting up this Saturday night. Despite missing some games and not playing at 100%, Baldwin has been Russel Wilson’s top option when the Seahawks elect to pass it in the redzone, as he has a 23.5% redzone target share. He’s one of the few receiving options this week that has a legitimate shot at catching multiple touchdowns.

Allen Robinson II (DK: $5.6k | FD: $6.5k) vs. PHI

I believe there’s a strong chance a Bears receiver has an explosive game against this Eagles secondary that has been a weakness all season. They allow 42.5 FPPG to opposing wide receivers. Prior to being held out of their week 17 game, Robinson had between seven and nine targets in each of the previous four. He’s a big play threat and with Mitchell Trubisky’s tendency to have his bigger games at home, you would expect Robinson to certainly benefit from that as well. Robinson is one of my favorite receivers to consider in the mid-range of pricing.

Dontrelle Inman (DK: $4.3k | FD: $5.5k) @ HOU

The Colts have already ruled out Ryan Grant for this week, which should lead to Inman seeing a healthy dose of snaps. Despite joining the team in the middle of the season, Andrew Luck wasted no time developing a connection with Inman. In the Colts’ last two games Inman has turned in nine catches on 11 targets for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Inman and a now healthy Keke Coutee (DK: $4k | FD: $5.6k) are two of my favorite value wide receivers for this weekend’s games.

Tight Ends to Target

Eric Ebron (DK: $5.2k | FD: $6.6k) @ HOU

Given the tough match-up for Zach Ertz, I expect Ebron to be the most popular tight end that people will spend up on. It makes sense considering Ebron is second in the NFL with 13 receiving touchdowns this season. He’s had two strong games against Houston this season as well, totaling nine catches (on 18 targets) for 105 yards and a touchdown in each game.

Antonio Gates (DK: $2.7k | FD: $4.9k) @ BAL

Punting at the tight end position has been a pretty bleak venture this season and Gates should only be considered as a desperation tournament play. But in a game of this magnitude, there’s always a chance the classic Rivers to Gates connection comes into play. No real statistical analysis here. If you take him in some lineups, you just kind of hope he has one of those “fountain of youth” games like back in week 11 against Denver when he caught five of seven targets for 80 yards and a touchdown. Note that if Hunter Henry happens to play, I like the Gates punt a bit less but he probably still sees his usual snaps.

Defensive Breakdown

Chicago Bears (DK: $3.4k | FD: $5.5k) vs. PHI

Priciest option? Yes. But… the Bears at home is too enticing to ignore. The Eagles offense is only carrying a 17.75 implied point total. Plenty of ways this defensive unit can stack up some points for ya.

Indianapolis Colts (DK: $2.3k | FD: $3.7k) @ HOU

This would be the more contrarian play here but Deshaun Watson was the most sacked quarterback in the NFL this season (62 sacks taken). Sacks and quarterback pressures lead to that defensive touchdown upside goodness.

Weekly NFL Freeroll

Congrats to last week's freeroll winners!

1st: KrisK91 | 179.32 points

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3rd: GGHOSTMANH | 175.56 points

We’ll be hosting a weekly NFL freeroll on DraftKings so remember to join!

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That will wrap us up for the wildcard round. As always, please hit me with any thoughts you may have on the newsletters or questions you have for the slate! Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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