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Sunday Slate Rundown 📝

We’re down to seven games remaining in this year’s NFL postseason so don’t take this weekend for granted! The eight teams competing in this weekend’s Divisional Round are now just two wins away from punching their ticket to Super Bowl LIX. For the purposes of this newsletter, we’re going to put our focus on the full Saturday through Sunday four-game slate. It happens to be the featured slate (aka it provides the largest DFS contests and prize pools) over on DraftKings; though, FanDuel’s biggest GPPs are going to reside on the separated Saturday and Sunday two-game slates. Regardless, players competing on both days are going to be mentioned in this newsletter. If applicable, remember to use your FLEX on a Sunday player if you’re playing the Sat-Sun slate just in case some later adjustments need to be made. Let’s continue to close the book on this season with a bang! Best of luck!

Notable Skill Position Injuries (Players on IR Excluded)

• Texans: RB Joe Mixon - Questionable (“very, very real chance to play”), WR Robert Woods - Questionable -- also remember that WR Diontae Johnson was waived by the Texans and claimed by the Ravens.

• Chiefs: None

• Commanders: None

• Lions: None

• Rams: None

• Eagles: None

• Ravens: WR Zay Flowers - Doubtful

• Bills: RB Ray Davis - Questionable

Match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• HOU at KC (Saturday, 4:30 ET | 41.5 O/U): 20-degree temps & 10-15 mph winds. “Feels like” temps around 10 degrees. These conditions aren’t major downgrades for offenses, but it will be a frigid afternoon, to say the least.

• WAS at DET (Saturday, 8:00 ET | 55.5 O/U): Indoors.

• LAR at PHI (Sunday, 3:00 ET | 43.5 O/U): Temps around the freezing mark with 5-10 mph sustained winds & 15-20 mph gusts. More notably, this match-up will be on SNOW GAME ALERT. We’ll have a better idea of the timing for said snowfall the closer we get to kickoff but it is looking likely that we’ll see some amount of it before or during this game.

• BAL at BUF (Sunday, 6:30 ET | 51.5 O/U): Frigid high-teens temps in Buffalo with a moderate chance for snow. So… SNOW GAME ALERT #2.

Divisional Round Core Plays 🎯

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS | DK: $7k, FD: $8.5k | at DET

Only the best rosters in the NFL make it this far so we’ll have plenty of tough decisions to make at every position this weekend. The playoffs are a big stage for a rookie QB to take on but Jayden Daniels rose to the occasion in his first career postseason start, which was also on the road, last week. Daniels completed 68.6% of his passes against the Bucs for 268 yards, two TDs, and perhaps most importantly when it comes to playoff football, zero INTs. He didn’t have a highly productive day on the ground, averaging just 2.8 YPC on 13 rushes, but he made some dual-threat plays when he needed to. The Commanders will now head into another road atmosphere as nine-point underdogs against the current Super Bowl LIX favorites, the Detroit Lions. It’s been much easier to pass on the Lions (8th most FPPG allowed to QBs) than to get a traditional run game going (4th fewest FPPG allowed to RBs). However, Detroit did allow the 4th most rushing yards to QBs this season so, while the expected game script should force Washington to lean pass-heavy, Daniels will have plenty of chances to do some damage with his legs. With all factors considered, ranging from weather to match-up, Jayden Daniels sets up as my favorite QB option on the weekend.

RB Derrick Henry, BAL | DK: $8k, FD: $9.6k | at BUF

One thing has been fairly consistent throughout Derrick Henry’s career. When the gametime temperatures go down, Henry’s production goes up -- and temps are forecasted to be around an icy 19 degrees by kickoff in Buffalo this Sunday with a chance for snow. Henry has already had a big year in his inaugural season with the Ravens, but he really turned it on down the final stretch of the season and into the Wild Card round versus the Steelers. Overall, across his last four games, he has handled 24.3 rush attempts/gm for 158.3 YPG (6.5 YPC) and has punched in five TDs. The Buffalo run defense has been good-not-great this season and it’s tough not to look back on the game Henry had against the Bills back in week four of this regular season -- 27 touches, 209 total yards, and two TDs (one rushing/one receiving). The Ravens (-1.5) step in as the only road favorites this weekend and, in what is likely going to be a close, physical game, Henry should be given as many touches as he can handle.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.7k | vs. HOU

There isn’t much boldness in spotlighting Jayden Daniels and Derrick Henry as my first two core plays on this four-game slate. But we have to plant our flag and take firm stands on some riskier investments because, inevitably, there are going to be some lower-owned players who end this weekend in the optimal lineup. Isiah Pacheco is going to be one of those guys for me. My working theory -- and it’s not exactly a hot take -- is that the Chiefs have been largely saving Pacheco for yet another Super Bowl run in the playoffs. As most are aware, Pacheco missed nine games with a fractured fibula which he suffered way back in week two. He made his return from the IR in week 13… by then, the Chiefs were already 10-1 and essentially a lock for the playoffs. They also received some solid production from Kareem Hunt while Pacheco was sidelined, so there was no need to give their recently injured RB1 a huge workload right out of the gates. Overall, Pacheco did not play more than 46% of the snaps in the five games since returning from the leg injury. However, he was an integral part of their Super Bowl run last year, averaging 20.3 rushes/gm, 78.3 rush YPG, and he scored three TDs across four postseason games. He also played no fewer than 70% of the snaps last postseason and, before the week two injury this year, he logged an 80% snap% in week one. We’re placing a lot of faith in what Pacheco did in last year’s playoffs and assuming he’ll be more involved moving forward, but the bottom line is that he is affordable, he is a proven postseason asset on a championship team, and he could benefit from a positive game script with the Chiefs being eight-point home favorites versus the Texans (who have allowed the 10th most FPPG to RBs over their L4Games).

WR Puka Nacua, LAR | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.6k | at PHI

The Eagles have been tough customers against the pass and ultimately have surrendered the 4th fewest FPPG to WRs this season. That said, their secondary did give up some big games to opposing WRs down the stretch and Nacua had a strong individual performance against them back in week 12, catching nine of 13 targets for 117 yards. Nacua’s massive 38.5% Target% since week 10 in the regular season led the entire NFL and fellow WR Cooper Kupp has almost appeared to be an afterthought in this Rams’ passing attack. While the Rams weren’t pressured into passing much, given the game script, Kupp garnered just one target on Matthew Stafford’s 27 attempts. Meanwhile, Nacua’s nine targets represented yet another dominant target share (34.6%). Unless the Rams (+6 underdogs) jump out to a big early lead in this one, much like they did against the Vikings this past Monday night, I find it hard to believe that Nacua will see any less than double-digit targets and my somewhat bold take is that he’ll end the day with 120+ yards and at least one TD this Sunday.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.6k | at DET

Wide receiver is always the position you can get the most creative, particularly on smaller slates, and you’ll find all of the WRs I’m on board with this weekend on the cheat sheet below. This man isn’t exactly going to fly under the radar, ownership-wise, but with Jayden Daniels being my core QB, we have to work in some stack correlation, and who better to do that with than Terry McLaurin? Since week 12, McLaurin ranked out as the WR8 in fantasy points per game. In that same seven-game stretch, including last week’s Wild Card game versus the Bucs, he commanded a huge 40.1% AirYard% and hauled in eight TDs. The Lions surrendered the second-most FPPG to WRs this season and, while TDs for WRs are tough to predict, it’d be a mild surprise if McLaurin doesn’t find the endzone this Saturday in a game that owns a massive 55.5 over/under.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.1k | at BUF

I was torn on which tight end to pin as a “core play” -- there are more than a handful of really strong TE options and there isn’t much that separates one from the other. Ultimately, I’m leaning toward Isaiah Likely as my go-to TE play this weekend. He’s an athletic receiving tight end who may be benefitting from the expected absence of WR Zay Flowers (knee/doubtful). With Flowers sidelined last week, Likely logged his highest snap rate of the season at 80% -- this was more than Mark Andrews (61%) and more than any Ravens WR (Rashod Bateman: 49%, Nelson Agholor: 27%, Tylan Wallace: 53%). While Likely didn’t put up a huge stat line (4/3/53/0 target/receiving line), it’s important to note that Lamar Jackson only attempted 21 passes in a winning game script. And, for what it’s worth, Likely led all Ravens’ receivers with a 35.3% AirYard% last week. Likely never really came close to replicating the same success he had in week one (12/9/111/1) but he could be a key component, perhaps even the main component, in the Ravens’ passing game this week… and, unlike the Steelers last week, the Bills should certainly force Baltimore into more of an aggressive offensive game plan.

FanDuel Note: In case you’ve missed it, David Montgomery will make his return from the IR this Saturday and FanDuel somehow left him priced at the stone minimum of $4,000 (and he’s also priced at $5,000 on the showdown slate). He may be somewhat limited in his first game back, but probably not by much considering how important the one-two punch with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery has been for the Lions’ offense this season. He will be massive chalk (on FD) but he’s almost setting up as a free square.

Divisional Round NFL DFS Cheat Sheet 📝

Alternative Cheat Sheet Image Link

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Jameson Williams

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Lamar Jackson, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, James Cook

Value QB/WR/WR Double Stack

Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown

Contrarian Game Stack | QB + Low-Owned WR + Low-Owned Opp WR

Josh Allen, Keon Coleman, Tylan Wallace

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!