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Top DFS Offers 9/8/24 💸

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Main Slate Rundown 📝

The first NFL Sunday of the season is here! We had a couple of entertaining primetime games to begin the new season, but today is when the ball really gets rolling. A dozen games are lined up on the DraftKings main slate. Meanwhile, FanDuel has elected to include the SNF game between the Rams and Lions. I’m not sure if that is going to be the new norm for FanDuel main slates moving forward but, considering that game possesses the highest total of the week at 52 points, as well as a fairly close spread (DET -4.5), one would assume that plenty of main slate ownership will land there.

A slew of low-total games litter this Sunday slate with eight match-ups chiming in with an over/under between 40 and 42.5 points. The hivemind that is DFS in the year 2024 will heavily focus on the high total games, such as HOU @ IND (49 O/U), JAX @ MIA (49.5 O/U), ARI @ BUF (47 O/U), and, once again on FanDuel’s main slate, LAR @ DET (52 O/U). I’m not saying it’s a bad idea, but there will be plenty of leverage spots right out of the gates to begin the season and some of these other match-ups will undoubtedly exceed expectations and venture into shootout territory.

For this season’s opening main slate newsletter, as usual, I’m going to cover several plays at each position -- some of which will likely be chalky (aka popular), others will be players that I believe will provide significant leverage (aka low ownership). However, I won’t deep dive into as much statistical analysis since there is only so much we can glean from preseason games and training camps. Using last year’s data is also a slippery slope since there is always so much turnover in the offseason, both among the player and the coaching ranks.

And, real quick before we get into some plays, stacks, and props I like for week one, I just want to issue a quick apology for this newsletter coming out on Sunday morning! I planned to have it out yesterday evening at the latest, but some unforeseen circumstances arose. Most weeks, I am going to try my best to get these out on Friday nights moving forward. Alright, let’s wrap this intro up and get down to business. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• JAX @ MIA: Winds around 15 mph. Any rain should be clear ahead of kickoff but, this time of year in Florida, there’s always some chance for a random pop-up.

• ARI @ BUF: Sustained winds around 20 mph with stronger gusts make this the windiest game of the day. Some throws deeper down the field may be affected, along with longer field goals.

• MIN @ NYG: 10 mph winds.

• WAS @ TB: This looks to be the wettest game of the day with rain, perhaps more of the “off-and-on” variety expected throughout the game.

• DAL @ CLE: 10-15 mph winds, gusts around 20 mph.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. ARI

Allen steps in as the most expensive QB on the slate and there are plenty of questions surrounding who his go-to receiver(s) will be following the exodus of Stefon Diggs… and Gabe Davis, I guess. As mentioned in the weather rundown, some 20+ mph winds may also have some amount of impact on the passing games here. Nonetheless, we know Allen can break a slate as both a passer and a runner. And, given how much value there is out there to begin the season, spending up on him isn’t a major hurdle. This Cardinals defense was among the worst in the NFL a season ago and they’re expected to be about the same, perhaps even a bit worse, in 2024 -- specifically, their secondary could very well be the worst in the league. Despite the concerns about his receiving weapons, and the windy weather, Buffalo is being pinned with a 27.0 implied team total, which trails only the Detroit Lions (FanDuel main slate only) on the day. One way or the other, Josh Allen should find a way to put up a stout fantasy score here.

Deshaun Watson, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $7.1k | vs. DAL

People are going to hate this play, and for good reason. Thanks to his despicable off-the-field actions, Deshaun Watson is about as unlikeable of a player as there is in the league. We also haven’t seen much in the way of high-end fantasy production out of him in years. But, if you want leverage, you can find it here as Watson should go virtually un-owned -- as should his stack options. He has displayed a huge ceiling in the past and perhaps he can tap into that upside following a healthy offseason and another season removed from his non-football-related “issues.” Also, despite the modest 41-point over/under in this game, it wouldn’t be a significant surprise if this ends up being one of the higher-scoring match-ups of the day.

Jayden Daniels, WAS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7k | at TB

We usually see rookie QBs priced down to begin the season and that’s certainly the case with Jayden Daniels. The range of outcomes will be wide for Daniels in his debut, especially if rain becomes a factor and leads to a lower-scoring sloppy game. But his dual-threat capability is what makes him intriguing for DFS after he ran for 1,134 yards at LSU last season while combining for 412.2 total YPG. Of course, he’s not going to put up those sorts of numbers in the NFL but the talent is undeniable. Tampa Bay projects to have a middling defense this season, perhaps a touch above average, with their secondary being their strength, but mobile QBs did give them some issues last season and they surrendered the second-most rushing TDs to the position.

Justin Fields, PIT | DK: $5k, FD: $6.9k | at ATL

Only if Russell Wilson (calf/questionable) is inactive

Fields’ ownership projection will skyrocket if Wilson is ruled out but there is no doubt he would be a favorable DFS option if he starts. On top of his bottom-of-the-barrel DFS salaries, we have a generally good idea of what Fields can provide from a fantasy scoring perspective given his dual-threat capability. He’s far from a top-tier pro passer but he does bring legitimate 100+ yard rushing potential to the table. Essentially, we’d view him as a running back with passing stat upside. It also helps that this is a domed match-up against a (likely) bottom-10 Falcons defense.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Jared Goff, DET | DK: N/A, FD: $7.5k | vs. LAR

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.8k | vs. PIT

I’m sure in most of your season-long and best ball drafts, Robinson was the second RB off the board behind CMC. His talent is undeniable but his usage from his 2023 rookie season under HC Arthur Smith was, more often than not, quite frustrating. Under new HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson, Bijan’s usage is expected to increase, perhaps drastically into CMC-like territory. His new QB, Kirk Cousins, also poses zero threat as a runner and has a history of providing plenty of targets for his primary RB. I have zero issues spending up on Bijan out of the gates.

James Cook, BUF | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.6k | vs. ARI

Cook is another versatile back who could see an expanded role early in the season as the Bills figure out their receiver situation. Until further notice, Cook is arguably the Bills’ best skill position player so it would make sense to manufacture him as many opportunities as possible -- as a runner and receiver. Cook averaged a strong 92.2 total YPG last season, but a lack of touchdowns (6 total TDs in 2023) was a big hit to his weekly fantasy upside. While QB Josh Allen is always a threat to run it in near the goal line, at the very least, Latavius Murray (4 TDs in 2023) is no longer around to fall into the endzone. Rookie Ray Davis may eventually take over as Buffalo’s primary goal line/short yardage RB, but Cook may be the guy who gets the first crack at opportunities near the endzone. There are safer RB plays on this slate, but Cook is an intriguing option who should come in under 10% ownership. This Cardinals defense was Swiss cheese against the run last year, as they allowed the most rush YPG and the most receiving TDs (8) to RBs. They probably won’t be much better this season.

Joe Mixon, HOU | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | at IND

I see plenty of steam being directed at Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson this week. I don’t hate Richardson as a DFS play, even though he still has plenty to prove as an NFL passer after barely playing over three games in his rookie season before getting hurt. But one way to leverage a highly-owned QB is to play the opposing team’s RB1 -- the thought process here is that the Texans control the clock by running Mixon heavily while keeping Richardson and the Colts’ offense off of the field. Mixon’s days in Cincy were often mired in frustration, from a fantasy perspective, but he had a strong ending to the 2023 season and I don’t see fellow Texans RBs, Dameon Pierce and Cam Akers, challenging him for many touches. This Houston offense boasts a highly capable passing game that should take plenty of pressure away from the run game while also setting up multiple potential touchdown opportunities [for Mixon] near the goal line.

Kenneth Walker III, SEA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DEN

If off-season buzz and coach-isms are to be believed, Walker could take a major step forward as a true workhorse back. While new Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb is more known to be on the pass-happy side of things from his recent collegiate coaching days with the Washington Huskies, he has also referred to Walker as a “three-tool guy” and praised his ability as a receiver out of the backfield. If he does indeed take on a bigger role, his DFS price points are a touch too low in week one. It also doesn’t hurt that the Seahawks are touchdown favorites at home and will face a Broncos defense that surrendered the 2nd most YPG to RBs last season.

Chuba Hubbard, CAR | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.6k | at NO

Hubbard may not be an exciting option and he is stuck on a poor offense, but until rookie RB Jonathan Brooks (knee/IL) is healthy enough to make his NFL debut, Hubbard should be the bellcow in the Panthers backfield. After averaging an ineffective 3.3 YPC, Miles Sanders was relegated to backup RB duties behind Hubbard late last season. From week 12 onward, Hubbard logged between a 64% and 81% snap% across the final seven games while averaging 21.4 touches/gm. The Panthers also made some O-Line investments in the off-season and, while no one will confuse them with the Chiefs or Lions offense, they should be an improved unit overall if second-year QB Bryce Young can make some sophomore strides. The Saints also struggled to stop the run toward the end of last season and several of the bigger names on their defense, e.g. Cameron Jordan, DeMario Davis, and Tyrann Matthieu, are aging into the twilight of their careers.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyreek Hill, MIA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.6k | vs. JAX

Hill was on pace to become the NFL’s first ever 2,000-yard receiver last season but, after injuring his ankle in week 14 which caused him to miss a game the following week, he never looked quite at 100%. He still drew plenty of targets down the stretch, but Hill failed to surpass 100 yards in the four games following the ankle injury. Even with the slow (by his standards) finish, Tyreek still led all receivers in targets per route (0.35) and yards per route run (3.7) in 2023. He has been dealing with a thumb injury since mid-August but says he is 100% heading into this week, so no real worries there. Most of you probably remember his slate-breaking performance to kick things off last year as Hill hauled in 11-of-15 targets for 215 yards and two TDs in week one against the Chargers. QB Tua Tagovailoa is somewhat infamous for starting hot to begin the season before fading down the stretch and/or on the road in colder environments. So, what better time to spend up on Tyreek than week one?!

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.9k | vs. WAS

The Commanders were, by far, the worst team against opposing WR1s last year, and their secondary isn’t expected to make any major strides in 2024. Mike Evans is historically a very volatile DFS option, and I don’t see that changing this year, but that volatility almost always keeps his ownership low. Evans landed in the perfect lineup on six separate occasions last season and we might as well roll the dice on him here in a potential smash spot. The fact that Bucs RB Rachaad White projects to be one of the higher-owned RBs on the slate only increases Evans’ appeal as a major week one leverage play.

DK Metcalf, SEA | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.9k | vs. DEN

We spotlighted Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III in the RB section above and discussed how he may venture into more elite usage this season. The same may also be true with DK Metcalf in an offense that figures to be more pass-happy than we’ve seen in the past due to coaching changes. Metcalf is well-known to be among the biggest physical freaks in the NFL, but his fantasy results don’t always reflect that. I believe he’s far and away the top WR in this offense, ahead of the aging Tyler Lockett and second-year receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. If he begins to garner 10+ targets on a regular, or even semi-regular basis, he’s going to post some monster fantasy scores this season. In all likelihood, Metcalf will garner shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain II -- one of the best corners in the NFL. But even Surtain displayed some inconsistencies in 2023 and the Broncos also ranked 24th in WR1 DVOA.

Drake London, ATL | DK: $6k, FD: $6.7k | vs. PIT

We know Kirk Cousins isn’t afraid to pepper his WR1 with targets non-stop and Drake London is now primed to be his top target. There is a reason he was being grabbed in the early/mid-second round of season-long and best ball drafts and he’ll also start the season at home (London has averaged +40.9% more FPPG in domed stadiums). Not much analysis here. London’s ceiling with Kirk Cousin as his QB simply isn’t reflected in his current DFS salaries.

Terry McLaurin, WAS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.2k | at TB

McLaurin is easily the best receiving threat that rookie QB Jayden Daniels has at his disposal and, conversely, Daniels is arguably the best QB that McLaurin has had in since entering the league in 2019. Despite poor-to-atrocious QB play, McLaurin has ripped off four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. The Bucs allowed the 4th-most yards to WRs last year but they do have some real talent in their secondary. That said, McLaurin is one of the most underrated players at his position and has put up great numbers in much more difficult match-ups than this one in the past.

Joshua Palmer, LAC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5k | vs. LV

Rookie WR Ladd McConkey (DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.3k) is getting some hype this week and, while I don’t hate the play, I believe I’d rather roll with Palmer, who has more established rapport with QB Justin Herbert. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both gone and second-year WR Quentin Johnston has looked like a bust up to this point. Palmer enters this season as the de facto WR1 and has one of the better QBs in the NFL throwing to him. The Chargers may want to lean run-heavy under new HC Jim Harbaugh but they’re also not just going to let Herbert’s talents go to waste. Palmer could be one of the bigger WR surprises of the week if Herbert and the Chargers come out slinging it against an average Raiders secondary.

Andrei Iosivas, CIN | DK: $3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. NE

Yes, with Tee Higgins (hamstring) doubtful to play and Ja’Marr Chase (non-injury related/questionable) potentially limited if he does suit up, Iosivas is going to be major chalk at these bottom-of-the-barrel price tags. But, as the saying goes, you don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Iosivas isn’t guaranteed to come through, but if he’s operating as the Bengals’ WR2 for an entire game with Joe Burrow throwing him the ball, his bust potential is extremely low. Given his likely sky-high ownership, there is some merit for fading Iosivas in GPPs, but if he even has a decent game, you may find yourself playing catch-up. If Chase is confirmed out or limited, you could take a flier on other dirt-cheap Bengals WRs like Jermaine Burton or Trenton Irwin. Mike Gesicki is also interesting at tight end.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: N/A, FD: $8.9k | vs. LAR

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: N/A, FD: $7k | at DET

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Evan Engram, JAX | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.2k | at MIA

It doesn’t take an expert to figure that this should be one of the higher-scoring games on the slate. Engram had several huge games down the stretch last season and his status as one of Trevor Lawrence’s top targets is pretty well cemented with 2023 Jags receiving leader Calvin Ridley now with the Titans. I love rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr.’s potential in this offense, and Christian Kirk is a quality slot receiver, but Engram should be a reliable weapon right out of the gates.

Kyle Pitts, ATL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6.3k | vs. PIT

Pitts is yet another talented Falcons skill position player who should see his usage take a massive step forward with a much better QB throwing him the ball and much less conservative coaches calling the shots. This could be the cheapest salaries we’ll see on Pitts all season if he has a big week one.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.5k | at NO

Punting at the TE position is always a viable strategy, especially on DraftKings where the floor salary is $2,500. With Tommy Tremble (hamstring/back) sidelined this week and veteran TE Ian Thomas (calf) on the IR, rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders sits atop the depth chart and should see his fair share of opportunities.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Sam LaPorta, DET | DK: N/A, FD: $8k | vs. LAR

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Cincinnati Bengals | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.8k | vs. NE

Mid-Range D/ST: Seattle Seahawks | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. DEN

Value D/ST: Carolina Panthers | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.2k | at NO

Contrarian D/ST: Houston Texans | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.9k | at IND

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Josh Allen, Daulton Kincaid, Trey McBride

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

CJ Stroud, Tank Dell, Michael Pittman Jr.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (FanDuel Only Game Stack)

Jarred Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Cooper Kupp

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Kyle Pitts

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Trevor Lawrence, Evan Engram, Brian Thomas Jr.

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Kenneth Walker III + Seahawks D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB + WR or TE + RB

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane

Value Team Stack - QB + WR or TE + RB

Justin Fields (If Wilson is out), George Pickens, Najee Harris

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp WR

Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb

Sunday NFL Pick ‘Em ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

James Cook MORE than 2.5 Receptions

Joshua Palmer MORE than 4.5 Receptions

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!