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LineStar NFL DFS & Prop Show w/ Tyler Wiemann

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Main Slate Rundown 📝

For football nuts, one of the most highly anticipated days of the year is upon us with the first NFL Sunday of the season less than 24 hours away! The Thursday night kickoff game and Friday’s Sao Paolo game were both solid primetime intros into the new NFL season, but now it’s time for the real deal. A dozen games are lined up on this opening main slate. Last year, FanDuel chose to include the Sunday Night Football game on its main slates, so there was always an extra game compared to the DraftKings slate. But it appears they are nixing that idea this season, so both DK and FD will feature the same number of games.

As is always the case in Week 1, we’re working with a unique combination of fresh rosters, new coaching wrinkles, and a DFS field hungry to lean too heavily on last year’s stats. That creates a lot of leverage opportunities right out of the gate. In this breakdown, I’ll highlight plays at each position — some chalky, some contrarian — and set the table for what should be a wild opening Sunday. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• CAR at JAX (1:00 ET, 46.5 O/U): A few storms around. Those may or may not end up over the stadium -- always tricky to tell with Florida weather. It’ll be hot (upper 80s) with 5-10 mph winds.

• PIT at NYJ (1:00 ET, 37.5 O/U): Could see some light rain around early. Not a major concern.

• CIN at CLE (1:00 ET, 48.5 O/U): 10 mph winds. More impactful for the kicking game than the passing game.

• LV at NE (1:00 ET, 44.5 O/U): This is setting up as the wettest game of the day with rain expected for much of the game. Worth keeping an eye on as conditions could be sloppy.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8k | at CLE

This game leads the slate with a 48.5 over/under, and Joe Burrow steps in as the odds-on favorite to lead all QBs in passing yards on Sunday -- that’s a +500 bet, with the next-closest QBs (Tua, Purdy, Mayfield) at distant +1200 odds. Take that for what it’s worth. The Bengals’ defense looks to be a major weakness once again this season, which is going to lead to plenty of shootouts for Burrow and the Cincy offense. Vegas is already signalling this thought process with the week one total and a not-too-wide 5.5-point spread. Spending up at QB may not be the preferred route to take on this week's slate, but even without elite rushing upside, Burrow brings a great ceiling to the table, and his top two stack options (Ja’Marr Chase & Tee Higgins) are about as straightforward as it gets.

Bo Nix, DEN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.4k | vs. TEN

From both a fantasy perspective and real life perspective, Bo Nix put forth a wildly successful rookie campaign. Nix took a back seat to Jayden Daniels and Brock Bowers in rookie of the year voting, but he finished as the QB9 in fantasy points per game, which was aided by his ability as a runner. Nix had 92 rushes for 430 yards and four TDs on the ground, and he was rock-solid as a passer even without an overly talented group of receivers, with Courtland Sutton being, by far, the top Broncos receiving threat. There were some efforts made to improve Nix’s weapons in the off-season, headlined by the addition of TE Evan Engram. Tennessee led the NFL in pass defense a season ago, but they’re set to regress in that department this season. The Broncos are also 3rd on the slate with a 25.5 implied point total.

Trevor Lawrence, JAX | DK: $5.3k, FD: $7k | vs. CAR

Lawrence checks in at bargain bin pricing this week and draws one of the friendliest matchups on the board against Carolina. New head coach Liam Coen is expected to breathe some life into Jacksonville’s passing attack, and Lawrence has no shortage of explosive playmakers at his disposal with Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, and Dyami Brown. Given the matchup, system, and supporting cast, he’s firmly in the mix to post one of the top QB scores on the slate.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.1k | at SEA

The clear concern with CMC is always health -- never workload or upside. Like clockwork, McCaffrey popped up on the injury report a couple of days ago with a calf issue, and he heads into week one with a pesky “questionable” designation. But the injury is described as “minor,” and CMC is expected to suit up this Sunday. It would be fair to assume that the 49ers may be somewhat cautious with their aging, injury-prone star running back, especially with Brian Robinson Jr. stepping in as one of the better backup RBs in the league. So perhaps McCaffrey is not going to profile as the safe cash game lock that he has typically been throughout his career, but, as long as he’s on the field and ready to go come Sunday afternoon, the patented CMC upside could always be on display. Keep in mind that the 49ers’ receiver room is very banged up to start the year, so McCaffrey should play a key role as a pass catcher.

Ashton Jeanty, LV | DK: $7k, FD: $6.4k | at NE

Jeanty is one of the more hyped rookie RB prospects in recent memory, perhaps since Saquon Barkley came into the league in 2018, yet I’m not seeing much DFS buzz on him. Jeanty’s advanced metrics back up the hype. His pre-draft profile featured a staggering 96.6 PFF rushing grade (second only to Adrian Peterson and De’Von Achane among rookie backs entering the NFL), along with massive marks in yards after contact and missed tackles forced. Unless we’re talking snow/icy conditions or 20+ mph winds, weather doesn’t play as major a factor in football as it does in other sports. But this game is expected to be played in some potentially wet and sloppy weather, which could put more of an emphasis on the ground game. Either way, an NFL team does not spend a sixth overall pick on an RB if they don’t plan to feature them heavily, and the Pats defense was responsible for some big opposing RB fantasy scores last season.

Chase Brown, CIN | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.9k | at CLE

Chase Brown sets up as one of the better RB options on the board, and he isn’t going to fly under the $7,000 threshold very long (especially once his ownership inevitably goes through the roof on Sunday). He is the clear bell-cow in Cincinnati’s backfield, with no real competition for touches, and the offense has been built to play to his strengths, both as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. The Bengals (-5.5) should be in a positive game script against Cleveland, giving Brown plenty of opportunities to rack up carries and receptions. That combination of volume and situation makes him one of the safest—and most reliable—RB plays on this slate.

James Conner, ARI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.5k | at NO

Conner perpetually slips down draft boards in season-long fantasy leagues and always seems to be underpriced in the DFS world. When healthy, he is typically going to play around 75% of the snaps and handle the major bulk of the RB workload for the Cardinals. He is a capable pass catcher and ranked 5th among all NFL RBs last season in broken tackle rate. The Saints are expected to have one of the weakest defensive fronts in the league this season, and this is shaping up to be another positive RB game script with the Cardinals stepping in as 6.5-point road favorites.

TreVeyon Henderson, NE | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.7k | vs. LV

Henderson has all of the tools to be a stud NFL running back, and the Patriots used a high second-round pick to take him with the 38th overall selection in this year’s draft. Henderson split backfield touches with fellow rookie RB Quinshon Judkins (Cleveland Browns), who went two picks ahead of him in the draft. Both backs were 1,000-yard rushers for Ohio State last season, but now Henderson looks to take on more of a featured role as a professional. He’s a dynamic, explosive runner (7.1 YPC in 2024) and possesses 4.4 speed with good hands. Veteran RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson are still around, but Henderson is the star-caliber talent in this backfield. And, who knows, perhaps he’ll have a little extra motivation to prove his talents with the highly-touted Ashton Jeanty on the other side of the field.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.2k | at CLE

It’s not a hot take to be all over the Cincy offense this week and, with softer pricing to start the season, fitting in Ja’Marr Chase won’t be a major challenge. There’s not much that needs to be said here. If you play season-long fantasy, Chase probably went one or two in your draft. He led all WRs with 23.7 PPR FPPG in 2024, and he is simply a matchup-proof, high-floor, high-ceiling play week in and week out. Ownership will be insanely high on him, but Chase is a terrifying fade in week one.

Nico Collins, HOU | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.9k | at LAR

Collins could set up as a savvy pivot off of the Ja’Marr Chase chalk. A slew of injuries to the Texans' WR room leaves Collins as, far and away, the top receiver for Houston this week. Christian Kirk is out with a hamstring injury, Tank Dell is out indefinitely and may not even play a single down this season, and two rookies (Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel) are the only real competition for Collins as far as targets go (along with TE Dalton Schultz, I suppose). Only AJ Brown and Puka Nacua averaged more yards per route run than Collins a season ago, and this Rams secondary can be beaten. Collins will draw plenty of defensive attention, but I’d also be surprised if he doesn’t see 12+ targets on Sunday.

Brian Thomas Jr., JAX | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.7k | vs. CAR

BTJ draws a solid matchup in week one against the Panthers, who were the 8th worst pass defense in 2024… and the only reason they weren’t worse in that regard is because teams were able to just run all over them. As a rookie, Thomas amassed 1,282 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, ranking third in the NFL for receiving yards. He comfortably led the team with a 24.5% Target%, double that of the next-closest Jags receiver (TE Evan Engram, 12.3% Target% - now in Denver). Thomas will once again be a focal point of the Jaguars’ passing attack, and he makes for an obvious stack piece if you’re also rolling with Trevor Lawrence at QB.

Drake London, ATL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k | vs. TB

Ya gotta love the game environment here, given its high total (47.5 O/U) and narrow spread (ATL +1.5). Drake London is a true alpha WR1, and he should only benefit from Michael Penix Jr. taking over as the QB1. When Penix replaced Kirk Cousins and started weeks 16, 17, and 18 of last season, London commanded an absurd 39.8% Target% and 48.7% AirYard%. That’s not a sustainable target rate, but London should be locked into 10+ targets nearly every week. He also averages +27.8% more FPPG in domed stadiums.

Emeka Egbuka, TB | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5k | at ATL

We’ll travel over to the other side of this game and spotlight rookie WR Emeka Egbuka. With Chris Godwin Jr. (ankle) out and Jalen McMillan on IR, Egbuka has the opportunity to instantly step in as the WR2 behind Mike Evans. The Bucs took him with the 19th overall pick this year, so Egbuka was going to be involved regardless of injuries to other Tampa Bay WRs. But the floor and ceiling both rise, given the current situation. He is a polished route runner with excellent separation skills and draws a promising matchup against the Falcons, who owned the 24th-ranked pass defense in ‘24.

Hunter Renfrow, CAR | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.3k | at JAX

If you want to roll the dice on a pure punt, Hunter Renfrow could be the ticket. Adam Thielen was traded back to his former Vikings team about a week-and-a-half ago, and WR Jalen Coker is on the IR with a quad injury. Even though he was released and then re-signed to the Panthers' 53-man roster, Renfrow drew plenty of buzz in training camp, and the veteran slot receiver still has some juice in the tank. Speaking of the slot, which is where Renfrow should line up for the majority of his snaps, QB Bryce Young does tend to heavily target his slot receiver. It’s not a flashy play, but the Panthers (+3.5) should be playing from behind in this game, and Renfrow can dink and dunk his way to being a solid value play.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Brock Bowers, LV | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k | at NE

There is much better standout value at the tight end position, but that’s what makes Bowers an elite week one leverage play -- he’ll likely check in at or below 5% ownership. New England’s defense is strong, especially on the outside with Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III, but they’re far more vulnerable in the slot — and that’s exactly where Bowers thrives. He’s a dual-threat TE who can line up outside or in the slot, and last season he finished fifth in receiving yards from the slot, the only TE in the top 10. Gonzalez has been ruled out this week, which takes a bit of the TE/slot focus off, but Bowers’ matchup remains excellent, and it’s not as if the Pats D gets better with Gonzalez off the field. With Amari Cooper going through some training camp workouts and deciding, “you know what, I don’t wanna do this anymore,” the only proven Raiders pass catchers are Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers. Bowers also receives a sizable QB upgrade going from Aidan O’Connell to Geno Smith, and he’s due for another monster year.

David Njoku, CLE | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.7k | vs. CIN

Njoku will be a popular TE target this week, but for good reason. With Old Man Joe Flacco in at QB, some of these Browns’ receivers have some appealing DFS potential. When Flacco started five games with the Browns in 2023, Njoku commanded a team-leading 22.5% Target% while hauling in 30 catches for 390 yards and four TDs. He averaged 18.6 PPR FPPG in those contests. Njoku sets up as an appealing option with Flacco slinging it and a porous Bengals defense on deck.

Brenton Strange, JAX | DK: $3.3k, FD: $5k | vs. CAR

We’ll go back to the Jags' passing attack, this time for some TE value by way of Brenton Strange. As previously noted in the Brian Thomas Jr. spotlight, TE Evan Engram (now in Denver) was second on the team in 2024 with a 12.3% Target%, but Strange was 3rd (10.2% Target%). If we split off the two stretches of games that Engram was out (Weeks 2-5, Weeks 15-18), we’ll find that Strange bumped his target rate up to 14.6%, which is solid by TE standards. I’d say 5-to-8 targets is a pretty safe projection for Strange this Sunday, and he draws a plus matchup versus a Panthers defense that was 31st in TE DVOA last season.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Denver Broncos | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.8k | vs. TEN

Mid-Range D/ST: Arizona Cardinals | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.2k | at NO

Value D/ST: Houston Texans | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.8k | at LAR

That will do it for week one! The first week of the NFL season is always a little chaotic, so apologies for this newsletter coming out later than expected. We’ll get in a groove and add some more info and tidbits to future NFL newsletters like stack suggestions and props. For now, I wish everyone the best of luck this Sunday! Let’s go!

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!